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Re: Peak Oil/Lukester
Luke:
I'm glad you responded. I know a critique of what I put on here is a bit dramatic, but it is just my opinion, and something that I'm seeing and just felt the need to write it out. There is a reason I put it on rant and rave - to me my own little opinion on one person's postings is of no real consequence, just something I wanted to put out there, because it seems to me that every thread involving peak oil is the same. So I would just like to answer your arguments and be done with it.
Okay, there is a huge huge difference. The housing market is fluid, with very very large swings happening on an almost daily basis. Almost like the stock market, and have large effects on the stock market. From what I can tell, a large part of the discussion isn't about housing per se but credit, money, inflation/deflation, and housing happens to be a part of that that was extremely wrapped up in it. Commodities, by extension, are affected by this, and hence possibly a natural bias against peak oil being the direct cause of the spike in oil prices, because we see gold, silver, copper, all commodities rising in unison, where there isn't such a raging debate.
I would also say the issue that I see with the posts is that a lot of times they become acrimonious. Having some passion for your convictions is admirable, but being inflammatory by name calling has no place in a discussion that should be facts and calculating discussion. Please note that all I did in my original post is point what I see as going on, without any vitriol.
This is a perfect example of what I mean when I say "acrimonious."
By the by, are my eyes really dulled and uninterested? Most chicks say my eyes are my best feature...
Well, to the first part, it's definitely true. But to me, money is a means to an end, an end being a certain lifestyle that a large portfolio would allow me to live. Am I superficial, materialistic? I would say that is definitely part of my persona - but so what? That doesn't diminish my insight or intellect on the matter. As far as me caring about nonrenewable resources (and the environment), I do have more than a passing interest, however as you correctly point out, the main concern is to the size of my portfolio and secondarily the life/global issues. Also, if I want to talk about resource depletion, I'd probably put a post on the commodities or energy forum; instead when I come to itulip I am looking enhance my understanding of investing and economics, and in this I feel I have learned a great deal, and I am certainly thankful to itulip and all it's members. To a certain extent lukester, you might find this shocking, i pretty much AGREE with everything you post. Maybe not to the extreme, but your points are valid. The problem I have is with the acrimony, and the repetitiveness of the argument. The reason the housing bubble is so fascinating is that there is something new to talk about all the time. Reactionary articles to certain items don't catch my fancy; however if/when oil hits 100/bbl, and we have a discussion of how this will hit the american consumer, and worldwide business - that is a more on-topic discussion, IMO.
I also have to thank you. While I visited a friend at Harvard once back in 2000, I never attended that institution as a student.
As far as my fascination with stocks, it's something I understand and have done well with, and tend to make the right decisions. I will admit my level of investment is actually more conservative than I might let on, I tend to be a long term buy and hold investor, but again I tend to make the right decisions when the time comes to buy and sell. Fortunately in a capitalist/free market society, everyone has the choice of investing in different ways, and that is my preferred way. Just a simple example: one of my absolute favorite companies to invest in is Suncor (SU). Returns for the year: SU 39.64%; GLD 31.30%.
Incidentally, it's facts that you have pointed out luke that have partially led me to believe that Suncor is one of the absolute best companies to invest in (at the right price of course). Yes, that strip mining, environment destroying oil sands company - one of the best stocks over the past 10 years, and will continue to be so in the future.
While itulip does delve into some larger social issues, I do not see it as a survivalist armageddon type place, nor do i see it as a discussion for saving the environment. I like the slant itulip has on it: alt-energy is the next bubble. This is a functional and logical prediction based on many of the facts you have laid out. I don't read itulip to help save the world, nor to prepare for the day when I need water and bullets to survive. I read it for economic education and investment education and advice (of course, investing at my own risk).
Incidentally, I certainly DO pay attention, and some of that has indeed come from itulip. But the overall point that I am saying is that the argument is the same, the same, the same, over and over. When I feel like I'm reading the same post, the same argument, yet again, what's the point of reading it? Especially when part of the arguments are peppered with highlights and wording that appear to me as shouting, instead of calm, logical debate.
In reality, I object to nothing you write. All I stated, and am stating, is what I put in the quotes in the first post:
"Okay, I understand you. No need to keep saying the same thing. Let's just let this play out, and see what happens."
Luke:
I'm glad you responded. I know a critique of what I put on here is a bit dramatic, but it is just my opinion, and something that I'm seeing and just felt the need to write it out. There is a reason I put it on rant and rave - to me my own little opinion on one person's postings is of no real consequence, just something I wanted to put out there, because it seems to me that every thread involving peak oil is the same. So I would just like to answer your arguments and be done with it.
Originally posted by Lukester
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I would also say the issue that I see with the posts is that a lot of times they become acrimonious. Having some passion for your convictions is admirable, but being inflammatory by name calling has no place in a discussion that should be facts and calculating discussion. Please note that all I did in my original post is point what I see as going on, without any vitriol.
Secondly, the reason I put this information under your dulled and uninterested eyes, is because iTuip's positions on this topic persistently stray into mis-representation as to A) the source of, and B) the depth of, the issue in question.
By the by, are my eyes really dulled and uninterested? Most chicks say my eyes are my best feature...
Based on my read of your posts DemonD, you are far and away more engrossed in "implications for your portfolio and investment results" (an enthusiasm you share with a good few others here apparently) to the exlcusion of a natural or deep curiosity about some of the "resource based" issues that seem to elicit little more than peeve and yawns from you. Considering you studied at Harvard, I find your range of expressed interests here, focused primarily on your one great enthusiasm, "stocks", to be a real yawn.
I also have to thank you. While I visited a friend at Harvard once back in 2000, I never attended that institution as a student.
As far as my fascination with stocks, it's something I understand and have done well with, and tend to make the right decisions. I will admit my level of investment is actually more conservative than I might let on, I tend to be a long term buy and hold investor, but again I tend to make the right decisions when the time comes to buy and sell. Fortunately in a capitalist/free market society, everyone has the choice of investing in different ways, and that is my preferred way. Just a simple example: one of my absolute favorite companies to invest in is Suncor (SU). Returns for the year: SU 39.64%; GLD 31.30%.
Incidentally, it's facts that you have pointed out luke that have partially led me to believe that Suncor is one of the absolute best companies to invest in (at the right price of course). Yes, that strip mining, environment destroying oil sands company - one of the best stocks over the past 10 years, and will continue to be so in the future.
The issues I've been trying to point out are going to reach out and grab our apparently orderly world by the throat and shake it like a frightened rabbit in five to ten years. Whether you are paying attention or not at that time will not be high up on my list of concerns. I do assure you however, a lot of other people perhaps less securely ensconced than you (worldwide, not just in Hollywood California) will be paying a great deal of attention.
Incidentally, I certainly DO pay attention, and some of that has indeed come from itulip. But the overall point that I am saying is that the argument is the same, the same, the same, over and over. When I feel like I'm reading the same post, the same argument, yet again, what's the point of reading it? Especially when part of the arguments are peppered with highlights and wording that appear to me as shouting, instead of calm, logical debate.
I find your objections fanciful
"Okay, I understand you. No need to keep saying the same thing. Let's just let this play out, and see what happens."
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