Doing the Math on Solar Water Heaters

[flintlock]

http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/...r_heaters.html

We are in the first years of a shale gas revolution, with forecasts of enough supply for the next century. Prices are so low that heating water for a family of four costs around 15 cents a day. Yet our labyrinthine government agencies pretend that nothing has changed and continue to push subsidies for unreliable expensive solar water heaters. I'm hoping for change on November 6.

I know gas availability and prices vary from area to area, but I get a little ticked off when I see hucksters pushing solar as economical in my area where gas is cheap and abundant. Especially if tax dollars are subsidizing.

From the comments the author is a little off on some of his assumptions, but his point is still valid. The payback goes from something like 130 years to half that. Also interesting to note the pro-solar folks trying to rationalize their expensive purchase. One bragging of a whopping $15 month savings. Of course nothing is stated about maintenance or replacement cost down the road. Others try to switch the comparison to electric water heaters, when the article is about gas and they know it.

Solar has its place, depending on circumstances, but that is not what is pushing the sales around my area. Its greed on the part of those pushing it. Its not just solar, its the instant hot water heaters, the hybrids, etc. All terribly expensive to install, more complex, and often requiring substantial electrical or Gas service upgrades to work.

[shiny!]

Re: Doing the Math on Solar Water Heaters

Friends of mine who used to live in Israel tell me that everybody uses solar water heaters over there. I wanted to get one because I live in a perfect area for them but they're ridiculously expensive. It would never pay for itself in savings. Why are they so expensive?

[lektrode]

Re: Doing the Math on Solar Water Heaters

Friends of mine who used to live in Israel tell me that everybody uses solar water heaters over there. I wanted to get one because I live in a perfect area for them but they're ridiculously expensive. It would never pay for itself in savings. Why are they so expensive?

likely BECAUSE of the.... TA DA!!!

.gov subsidies

just like college, just like houses, just like stocks/bonds, just like food, just like med ins.

good thing we got the .gov helping us hope for change, huh?

[jiimbergin]

Re: Doing the Math on Solar Water Heaters

We had solar hot water in Raleigh NC. We put it in (I think) in 1976. At that time there was both a federal and a state tax credit so our cost was about $800. I really loved it. We had plenty of hot water and it seemed to work well. We moved in 1992 and the new owners took it out. They also took out 2 skylights I had put in the kitchen. The next time I saw the house they had put the skylights back in. It was a dark kitchen without them. I have looked at it since and there does not appear to be any way to justify the cost even when I try to fudge the numbers.

[shiny!]

Re: Doing the Math on Solar Water Heaters

We had solar hot water in Raleigh NC. We put it in (I think) in 1976. At that time there was both a federal and a state tax credit so our cost was about $800. I really loved it. We had plenty of hot water and it seemed to work well. We moved in 1992 and the new owners took it out. They also took out 2 skylights I had put in the kitchen. The next time I saw the house they had put the skylights back in. It was a dark kitchen without them. I have looked at it since and there does not appear to be any way to justify the cost even when I try to fudge the numbers.

Same here. I love the concept of solar, especially in this climate, but it makes no financial sense. My 30 gallon gas hot water heater costs about $360 including tax. It's my only gas appliance. Using it for showers, laundry and dishwashing my gas bill averages $22/month.

The fellow who does odd jobs around my house wants to try laying serpentines of black water hose or painted PVC pipe on his roof to collect hot water. Could be interesting.

[Forrest]

Re: Doing the Math on Solar Water Heaters

Same here. I love the concept of solar, especially in this climate, but it makes no financial sense. My 30 gallon gas hot water heater costs about $360 including tax. It's my only gas appliance. Using it for showers, laundry and dishwashing my gas bill averages $22/month.

I don't believe that using any solar appliance makes sense right now, but the second oil goes up, and we cannot burn coal to produce energy, electric prices will make a better argument.

I am getting quotes on solar to cover all my energy needs, and based on my average yearly cost, I will break even without any rebates or tax incentives in 8.3 years. On a system that will still be producing over 85% of the original power in 30 years, I think that it makes good sense for me, since I am in an rural area, and could just as easily go off grid a good deal of the time, and by switching to electric heaters for the winter, I won't have to pay the hideous propane bills except for the hot water and cooking.

Using solar to me is more a safety issue...I live off a well drawing on my own water, and without the water I can't grow the organic food I will no longer be buying in the store. If you add in the savings from greenhoused veggies, the recapture on investment for the solar is down to about 4 years on prices now...not the prices when gas goes up, which they cannot avoid for more than a few years...and less time to recapture the investment if we get closed out of picking up oil in the Middle East.

If energy costs go to just double in the next 4 years due to war or inflation or both, my recapture rate goes down further. But regardless of failing or attacked infrastructure, or exhorbitant gas prices and taxes, I can keep going where I am with little change or discomfort, and be relatively safe from hideously rising prices that we will know we will face one day, for energy, for food, for transportation. There is another bonus to going to self sufficiency...the only taxes are on the added value of the solar to my property, while I need to make less income to live, and can therefore avoid income tax.

But in the end, it isn't as much about the energy savings as the energy independence Solar gives...and I am simply done with the energy price manipulation and speculation done on energy of all kinds, not to mention governmental energy policy being set to benefit only those who provide energy.

[lektrode]

Re: Doing the Math on Solar Water Heaters

....getting quotes on solar to cover all my energy needs, and based on my average yearly cost, I will break even without any rebates or tax incentives in 8.3 years.....
...
.........
another bonus to going to self sufficiency...the only taxes are on the added value of the solar to my property, while I need to make less income to live, and can therefore avoid income tax......

the IRR bene's are something that most seem to fail to grasp/appreciate.

and if its an 8yr payback, thats still 12%, isnt it?

it would appear that the profit margins on sales/installs are still quite high and this seems to be entirely driven by the tax credits.

altho in some places, where energy prices are off the charts (as in: .44/kwh and 5.25/gal propane) it can be argued that things like the jones act is the primary driver

[vt]

Re: Doing the Math on Solar Water Heaters


solar panels and fire

From a Reuters report by Daniel Kelley, Sept. 6:

"Putrid air hung over a luncheon meats warehouse long after a blaze consumed the building where frustrated firefighters met their enemy: rooftop solar panels.

Loved by the green movement, solar panels pose a growing threat to firefighters, who may suffer electrical shocks from panels that typically cannot be turned off, said John Drengenberg, consumer safety director for Underwriters Laboratories.

Even when systems are equipped with shutoffs, any light can keep panels and their wires energized, Drengenberg said.

Gaining access to roofs gives firefighters advantages such as venting gases, and the panels get in the way, said Ken Willette, who manages the public fire protection division at the National Fire Protection Association.

In Delanco, New Jersey, volunteer fire crews rushed to the burning meat warehouse on Sunday and discovered the roof was covered in solar panels, forcing firefighters to change tactics. It took 29 hours to put out the flames at the Dietz & Watson warehouse, which was left gutted and smoldering in ruins.

"Do I think we'd have had a different outcome if we could get on the roof? Sure," Delanco Deputy Fire Chief Robert Hubler said.

Solar energy has grown rapidly over the past decade, primarily in California, Arizona and New Jersey. Risks to fire responders have prompted building codes and firefighter training, but implementation is spotty and often left to individual jurisdictions. . . .

"It's an emerging challenge," Willette said. "We're seeing more of these panels installed in places that we have not seen them before."

Among the risks are shocks from panel wires that might be sliced when firefighters cut into a roof. Those wires also could come into contact with metal roofing material, causing injuries far from the roof cut, according to studies conducted by Underwriters Laboratories.

A version of this article appeared September 17, 2013, on page A17 in the U.S. edition of The Wall Street Journal, with the headline: Notable & Quotable."

[shiny!]

Re: Doing the Math on Solar Water Heaters

Loved by the green movement, solar panels pose a growing threat to firefighters, who may suffer electrical shocks from panels that typically cannot be turned off, said John Drengenberg, consumer safety director for Underwriters Laboratories.

So insurance bills could go up for buildings that have solar panels on roof. It's always something...

[Forrest]

Re: Doing the Math on Solar Water Heaters

solar panels and fire

From a Reuters report by Daniel Kelley, Sept. 6:

"Putrid air hung over a luncheon meats warehouse long after a blaze consumed the building where frustrated firefighters met their enemy: rooftop solar panels.

Loved by the green movement, solar panels pose a growing threat to firefighters, who may suffer electrical shocks from panels that typically cannot be turned off, said John Drengenberg, consumer safety director for Underwriters Laboratories.

Even when systems are equipped with shutoffs, any light can keep panels and their wires energized, Drengenberg said.

Gaining access to roofs gives firefighters advantages such as venting gases, and the panels get in the way, said Ken Willette, who manages the public fire protection division at the National Fire Protection Association.

In Delanco, New Jersey, volunteer fire crews rushed to the burning meat warehouse on Sunday and discovered the roof was covered in solar panels, forcing firefighters to change tactics. It took 29 hours to put out the flames at the Dietz & Watson warehouse, which was left gutted and smoldering in ruins.

"Do I think we'd have had a different outcome if we could get on the roof? Sure," Delanco Deputy Fire Chief Robert Hubler said.

Solar energy has grown rapidly over the past decade, primarily in California, Arizona and New Jersey. Risks to fire responders have prompted building codes and firefighter training, but implementation is spotty and often left to individual jurisdictions. . . .

"It's an emerging challenge," Willette said. "We're seeing more of these panels installed in places that we have not seen them before."

Among the risks are shocks from panel wires that might be sliced when firefighters cut into a roof. Those wires also could come into contact with metal roofing material, causing injuries far from the roof cut, according to studies conducted by Underwriters Laboratories.

A version of this article appeared September 17, 2013, on page A17 in the U.S. edition of The Wall Street Journal, with the headline: Notable & Quotable."

The size and style of my modest house, a single story, 1100 square foot house, wouldn't require anyone on the roof...their ladders are much taller.

And since I will be set up for switching from grid to off-grid, no energy needs to flow in the event I am in the path of a fire, and need to evacuate. It just is one of the tasks on the bug-out list. Also, we are required to have 30 foot minimum clearance around the house, except for endangered trees, so I am open on three sides for pulling the fire truck right next to the house, including the full north side that will never have panels. Our firemen out here are great, but a wildfire is not stoppable, and all they can do is attempt to let everything burn around the house, while keeping the house wet, and themselves out of the smoke.

Most small fires are put out by the surrounding neighbors, if you have any, before the firemen get there, and are mostly small brush fires due to a thrown cigarette, or a spark from shooting at targets near rocks. It goes with the rural lifestyle...we have extra risk, but also extra benefits.

the IRR bene's are something that most seem to fail to grasp/appreciate.

and if its an 8yr payback, thats still 12%, isnt it?

it would appear that the profit margins on sales/installs are still quite high and this seems to be entirely driven by the tax credits.

altho in some places, where energy prices are off the charts (as in: .44/kwh and 5.25/gal propane) it can be argued that things like the jones act is the primary driver

After taking the 30% rebate, it's a bit closer to 10%, but I am looking not at just the cost of electricity now, but the cost in 6 years, when I don't have to pay whatever the going rate is, especially since I expect it to rise, and the safety in a grid shutdown, which happens where I live at least once a year during high winds, or thunderstorms.

So insurance bills could go up for buildings that have solar panels on roof. It's always something...

Where I live, most of the houses are just allowed to burn if they aren't set up properly, so it's a moot point...and even without solar panels my fire insurance is very high. Living in a high fire danger area is the key. But if I wasn't here, I wouldn't have the climate that allows me to raise my food year round. Any farther out from the coast, there is little water. Any closer to the coast there are too many people, and thus too high prices.

Shiny is correct. It is always something.

We don't get Eden back until after Yah'shua returns...though I am looking forward to it.

[c1ue]

Re: Doing the Math on Solar Water Heaters

Are you taking into account the income your solar investment would have earned even if put into something like a 30 year Treasury bond?

Equally, why does the price of oil matter with regards to solar PV electricity? The US - outside of Hawaii - doesn't burn oil to produce electricity any more.

[Forrest]

Re: Doing the Math on Solar Water Heaters

Are you taking into account the income your solar investment would have earned even if put into something like a 30 year Treasury bond?

It is not pertinent...I could take into account not investing in a Hard Money loan on California Beach Property at 14%. I am concerned with not having to worry about how much electricity costs when I know my government plans to make electricity cost more by closing down coal burning for electricity...and I am talking about not having to worry about a stable electric flow in the winter when I am warming a greenhouse to produce absolutely clean food, and a stable electric flow to my well, to get the clean water I am currently drinking, and watering my vegetables with.

Cost is only a concern if you are worried about cash flow, which I am, but not as much as paying for the excessively high food prices on clean food that has to be transported with a rising cost of fossil fuel energy.

I am also pleased that my need for cash flow is lessened, and therefore I need less income that would be taxed as well.

Equally, why does the price of oil matter with regards to solar PV electricity? The US - outside of Hawaii - doesn't burn oil to produce electricity any more.

In a roundabout way it matters a lot. California is in a severe drought, and has EPA officials that want to save guppies in a delta rather than feed people by raising food. The food we used to produce, we now have to buy from other countries, like Mexico, who have unknown production concerns, like foul ground water, and unsanitary facilities, then shipping the stuff at a rising cost of transportation. That food I am importing I would have to purchase with the cash flow I am not generating at a low Bond rate from a shaky government, or a riskier Mortgage Promissory note rate if I were not using solar to do it myself.

And paying for clean food raised in someone else's greenhouse is even more expensive, without any hope of producing water at the same time for drinking, cooking and washing without the solar. My labor is free to me...theirs is not. My Solar and my greenhouse will be paid for in cash...I don't have to finance the other guy's setup, that is priced into his food, and then still have to ship it from somewhere else, and pay higher and higher gas prices to get to the store to purchase it. Sure, I pay a higher insurance premium, and pay for maintenance, but if I don't pay for mine, it will be priced into the food I buy as well.

Add to all of that the fact that my country wants to double our gasoline price to match that of Europe...I presume a tax to pay for the war they want to start in Syria that will disrupt Middle Eastern sources of oil, which in turn will raise the price on all goods transported in the very wide reaches of America.

The world has become an unstable place to do business in, which is why our economies are all doing so badly. The Crooks are running the Banks, the Legislation, the Courts, and the Elections in my country, so I prefer to look to a local level...preferably on my own property, which is also unemcumbered with debt, which prevents me from needing as much cash flow that also would require more taxable income from the cash I have to invest.

It's not really a very good investment arena for people with as little cash as I have, when half of an inherited estate sits in a bank making 1/10th of one percent in interest because the estate is being sued for revenge against my brother. Just the amount for the attorney would double my solar array investment, or buy another well equipped greenhouse, or maybe 25 ounces of pretty gold metal.

When the lawsuit is over in a year or two, I will get, YHVH willing, more greenhouses, and produce more fresh, clean food to sell, or trade with...or there might be an investment worth getting into. I am having to invest in a maximum amount of safety in a very unstable world with more people joggling my elbow than I ever expected...I don't like it much, but after all of the calculations, including allowing for crop loss, I am investing the least for the most to live on, and generating a return that cannot be valued.

Granted, I am doing it in a manner directly opposite that which is advised by normal, sane individuals, but I am probably neither normal nor sane in the current view of the world.

Oddly, I am looking to produce what I consume in a physically convenient way, doing something I like to do...and cutting out the middleman and the tax man, and most of the transport cost. If more people tried to do it, it would probably become illegal.

I will never live in luxury, but I will live in comfort for as long as my body lasts. Even so, I know I am not safe...safety is a silly concept in anyone's life on this planet. However, as long as the rule of law continues, I am well situated to ride the rough waters ahead of us, and still have some hard coin to guard against disaster.

And when the rule of law is gone, I will still have Yah'shua.

[c1ue]

Re: Doing the Math on Solar Water Heaters

Originally Posted by c1ue
Are you taking into account the income your solar investment would have earned even if put into something like a 30 year Treasury bond?


It is not pertinent...I could take into account not investing in a Hard Money loan on California Beach Property at 14%.

Not true. You're saying you will achieve payback in 8.3 years, but if this excludes guaranteed income (US Treasury is as safe as is going to be), then the actual payback can be significantly longer.

An 8.3 year payback implies an 8.67% rate of return using the rule of 72; subtracting the 10 year Treasury return of 2.9% yields a new payback time of 12.5 years.

Hence my question.

I am concerned with not having to worry about how much electricity costs when I know my government plans to make electricity cost more by closing down coal burning for electricity

I do understand that concern - but the real reason why coal plants are shutting down is because natural gas is so cheap. Push has yet to come to shove in that regard.

Even in this case, however, I'd suggest cost is a consideration. For example: using a diesel generator to produce electricity costs $0.50/kwh, give or take. The downside is that you have to buy lots of diesel; the upside is that it is a lot harder to walk off with a diesel generator inside your house. A $20K or $30K investment in solar panels isn't so much different than having a copper roof...

Do you get hail in your area?

In a roundabout way it matters a lot. California is in a severe drought, and has EPA officials that want to save guppies in a delta rather than feed people by raising food.

Again, I understand your concern. It isn't the EPA that's the problem, however. The real problem is with the water oligarchs in the Central Valley combined with the insatiable demand in LA.

Fights over water rights is as old as time.

The food we used to produce, we now have to buy from other countries, like Mexico, who have unknown production concerns, like foul ground water, and unsanitary facilities, then shipping the stuff at a rising cost of transportation.

In my view, the reason we import it is primarily due to labor costs combined with low transport costs.

Keep in mind that 'foul ground water' is largely a matter of opinion. In Asia, people have been using their own wastes to fertilize rice paddies long enough that parasites have evolved around the ecosystem.

Human waste is not useful for us, but is great for plants, and to some extent vice versa.

[Forrest]

Re: Doing the Math on Solar Water Heaters

Not true. You're saying you will achieve payback in 8.3 years, but if this excludes guaranteed income (US Treasury is as safe as is going to be), then the actual payback can be significantly longer.

An 8.3 year payback implies an 8.67% rate of return using the rule of 72; subtracting the 10 year Treasury return of 2.9% yields a new payback time of 12.5 years.

Hence my question.

C1ue, let’s look at the picture as I am looking at it.

I invest $35,000 at 2.9% interest, which generates an income of $1,015 per year. I will be paying 35% on that income in taxes, which leaves me a net yearly income on that investment of $659.75.

My electricity averages $300.00 month, as does the propane I use as I am not anywhere near natural gas facility, for a total of $600 per month, and $7200 per year. I will be able to replace my cost of propane by not using it for heating my house any longer, and will merely have to use propane for heating water and cooking until I install an electric water heater.
My monthly propane costs, except for heating water, and cooking with propane will be limited…I do not have the exact figure, but I will use Shiny’s estimate of her cost of $22.00 per month, or $264.00 per year.

Taking the $7,200.00 minus $264.00 = $6,936.00 per year of non-taxable income to pay for the energy for my house.

To replace the expense of $6,936.00 at a 35% tax rate = $10,670 in taxable income. At 2.9%, I would need to invest $367,931 simply to pay for my energy costs at my house.
Instead, I invest $35,000, and at $7,200 per year, that makes my payback 4.86 years, without the rebate. Add to the fact that I will be pumping my own very clean water (Being up in the mountains there are less problems with dumping near my aquifer) at no cost, and providing water and some heat in winter for growing my own organic food in a well equipped and insulated greenhouse, with electric coils to heat the soil, not the air, unless temps go below 17 degrees Fahrenheit, in which case, this first winter I will have to actually pay for a little electricity.

Next year, after testing the system, I will be expanding my solar array as needed to first cover any excess energy cost, and to provide for additional greenhouses.

My food costs will drop from about $1,000.00 per month, as organic vegetables are hideously expensive, to approximately half that, to buy clean meat from nearby growers, and the basic household goods that one doesn’t make or raise. If we set up a trading system, as is likely to happen as people retrench as times get more difficult, in my small rural town (1 small store, 2 gas stations, 1 farmer’s market, a hardware store, a couple of vetetinarians, and one part time dentist, a Pharmacy, 10-15 churches, 4 small restaurants, a nursery, and a bakery) Otherwise I will be raising chickens as well, and growing their feed.

I get to have all of this from an initial $35,000.00 in solar. And I haven't even bothered to calculate the tax rebate on the system from State and Fed, as I will be using it to pay for battery storage during outages. I went high on my payback because of the batteries I will be buying...I don't have the figures yet for a setup that will keep my electricity flowing during daylight hours to calculate that in, so I am being very generous with my payback rate.

It won’t be perfect…there will additional expense for the battery backup for grid breakdowns which we do get already where I am at…heaven forfend a disaster down the mountain from where the local Electric Co-op taps into the grid. Wildfires take us down, high winds take us down, and I want also not to be hurt by a creakily aging electric grid very open to terrorist attack, or worse, a government shutoff from time to time just to let people know who’s in control. My house insurance will go up a little to cover the solar array, and I will have to have maintenance from time to time, as I do on everything.

And I can use the remainder of my little inheritance to invest in my land, and run a business producing high quality clean food. Or not…I might forgo the extra greenhouses, and invest in those beach houses at 14% interest…Mortgage Banking was my business, so I would at least know what I was doing. And then there is the gold play that I have a small stake in…who knows what the future will bring, but to have unencumbered land, house, greenhouse, solar array, well, and pumps without having to pay taxes or interest on the money to provide makes it a very good bargain.

I do understand that concern - but the real reason why coal plants are shutting down is because natural gas is so cheap. Push has yet to come to shove in that regard.

Even in this case, however, I'd suggest cost is a consideration. For example: using a diesel generator to produce electricity costs $0.50/kwh, give or take. The downside is that you have to buy lots of diesel; the upside is that it is a lot harder to walk off with a diesel generator inside your house. A $20K or $30K investment in solar panels isn't so much different than having a copper roof...

Do you get hail in your area?

Diesel is noisy when it's right next to your house, not to mention that getting permits in California is a bit expensive for an underground diesel setup, and then you have to pay for large shipments of diesel at whatever price it is, and in the end that will go up too, not to mention that my County hates putting large amounts of fuel in a high fire danger area. And since I'm only a mile from the San Andreas Fault line, earthquake is also to be considered. I am safer with electricity, and going light on propane.

As to people stealing my solar panels, well, I don't exactly have very many people that look down at my house...I am just under the top ridge of the volcanic basin, with only a few neighbors. I also don't leave my property much, just once a week on average. People have trouble finding my house with a map & GPS. I also have a 4 legged tooth machine, and will be getting another pair of Dobies this coming Spring. And then there is the shotgun. I've lived up here for over 30 years...and never an ounce of trouble. I don't expect it to stay so calm as financial worries start making people mean, but unless they come in gangs, I feel safe enough.

As for hail, although I am in an upper mountain valley in Southern California, we rarely get hail...it's the mountains, sure, but it's also called high desert by a lot of weather people. And we get snow, but for rarely more than a few days, and at most 4-8 inches in a wet year, which we haven't been having lately. However, hail can be insured against. We are much more worried about high winds, and the Solar people are setting up for that, and again, I am insured.

Again, I understand your concern. It isn't the EPA that's the problem, however. The real problem is with the water oligarchs in the Central Valley combined with the insatiable demand in LA.

Fights over water rights is as old as time.

Yes, I know. It is why so few people are even permitted to live where I do, and why it costs and arm and a leg to get permission to build here now. We also have to live very far apart...generally a minimum of 5 acres. It's the one good thing about being in the same area for so long...I didn't have to pay so much when I purchased my land and developed it. We fight with the neighboring Indian tribes over their ridiculous ideas to put up watersport Parks next to their casinos, and I have no doubt that one day the government will come when water gets really nasty, and try to take my water rights away through Eminant Domain, but they have very strict laws that ensure that they must pay actual replacement cost...enough for me to move somewhere else with more water...California is oddly very clear about property rights, and upholds them well for a Socialist State.

In my view, the reason we import it is primarily due to labor costs combined with low transport costs.

Yes, but we have 30 million illegal Mexicans/South Americans living here already that take very low pay in order to live here, and raise their kids where the schooling is terrible, but is better than none...a nice plantation aspect of the Corporate people in the State.

Keep in mind that 'foul ground water' is largely a matter of opinion. In Asia, people have been using their own wastes to fertilize rice paddies long enough that parasites have evolved around the ecosystem.

Human waste is not useful for us, but is great for plants, and to some extent vice versa.

Yup...I actually plan to put in a composting toilet in my house...no need to waste the waste. But by bad ground water in other countries, I mean chemical dumps, factory waste in their streams and rivers, and a lot of pesticides that are illegal in the U.S. And then, there is a problem with really bad contamination and recalls of salad vegetables by sheer uncleanliness of the workers...we have a lot of problems with salmonella in our imported lettuce, celery, peppers, tomatoes and cucumbers. Using human waste for fertilizer is perfectly natural...but the bacteria is gotten rid of through the composting, and I sincerely doubt that anyone is going to be as careful about fertilizing my crops as I am. And fortunately, there is a lot of free fertilizer up here from racehorse breeders, ermine ranches, and of course, chickens.

I do expect to buy in other types of composts to add into my soil, but since I am recycling everything that is organic on my property, my soil is very healthy. I will need to buy in the standard Miracle Grow...intense planting in a greenhouse requires a lot of food.

Still, over all, Solar turns out to be the best for me...but I am well aware that it is not the best option for others.

[c1ue]

Re: Doing the Math on Solar Water Heaters

C1ue, let’s look at the picture as I am looking at it.

I invest $35,000 at 2.9% interest, which generates an income of $1,015 per year. I will be paying 35% on that income in taxes, which leaves me a net yearly income on that investment of $659.75.

My electricity averages $300.00 month, as does the propane I use as I am not anywhere near natural gas facility, for a total of $600 per month, and $7200 per year. I will be able to replace my cost of propane by not using it for heating my house any longer, and will merely have to use propane for heating water and cooking until I install an electric water heater.

Ok, outline understood.

My monthly propane costs, except for heating water, and cooking with propane will be limited…I do not have the exact figure, but I will use Shiny’s estimate of her cost of $22.00 per month, or $264.00 per year.

I'd say this comparison is probably not valid. Shiny lives in a mobile home, while you clearly do not since your monthly bill is at least twice what hers was prior to recent changes. I'm guessing your house is considerably larger than the 1100 square feet of a double wide.

Taking the $7,200.00 minus $264.00 = $6,936.00 per year of non-taxable income to pay for the energy for my house.

How much actual electricity are you using? That's the real question. $35K of solar - presumably post rebate - is I'm guessing around 4 kW of installed capacity?

Having actual numbers is far more tenable than comparing solar install cost vs. your utilities bill(s) - because said bill(s) incorporate electricity, natural gas, transmission & distribution costs, taxes, and what not.

As I've noted before - one of the ways by which solar feed-in customers free ride upon the rest of the population is that they don't pay their portion of the distribution and transmission costs, though I strongly suspect this will change soon.

Among other reasons, the feed-in process costs the utilities even more per kwh than just providing electricity downhill to customers - so the costs are being driven up even as those who are the cause of this are avoiding paying.

To replace the expense of $6,936.00 at a 35% tax rate = $10,670 in taxable income. At 2.9%, I would need to invest $367,931 simply to pay for my energy costs at my house.
Instead, I invest $35,000, and at $7,200 per year, that makes my payback 4.86 years, without the rebate. Add to the fact that I will be pumping my own very clean water (Being up in the mountains there are less problems with dumping near my aquifer) at no cost, and providing water and some heat in winter for growing my own organic food in a well equipped and insulated greenhouse, with electric coils to heat the soil, not the air, unless temps go below 17 degrees Fahrenheit, in which case, this first winter I will have to actually pay for a little electricity.

There seems to be a large gap here: grid access. Are you or are you not accessing electricity from the grid?

From what you write above, it seems more like you're accumulating 'credits' due to the massive over-subsidy of feed-in tariffs and using this to offset your pre/post daylight and winter electricity costs.

I have pointed out numerous times just how regressive these feed-in tariffs are; if you are taking advantage of them, it is understandable, but you should keep in mind that ultimately all that's happening is that you're riding on the backs of everyone else who is still on the grid.

More importantly, as Spain and Germany are showing now, these outrageous feed-in tariffs can and will change over time.

Next year, after testing the system, I will be expanding my solar array as needed to first cover any excess energy cost, and to provide for additional greenhouses.

My food costs will drop from about $1,000.00 per month, as organic vegetables are hideously expensive, to approximately half that, to buy clean meat from nearby growers, and the basic household goods that one doesn’t make or raise. If we set up a trading system, as is likely to happen as people retrench as times get more difficult, in my small rural town (1 small store, 2 gas stations, 1 farmer’s market, a hardware store, a couple of vetetinarians, and one part time dentist, a Pharmacy, 10-15 churches, 4 small restaurants, a nursery, and a bakery) Otherwise I will be raising chickens as well, and growing their feed.

I get to have all of this from an initial $35,000.00 in solar. And I haven't even bothered to calculate the tax rebate on the system from State and Fed, as I will be using it to pay for battery storage during outages. I went high on my payback because of the batteries I will be buying...I don't have the figures yet for a setup that will keep my electricity flowing during daylight hours to calculate that in, so I am being very generous with my payback rate.

It won’t be perfect…there will additional expense for the battery backup for grid breakdowns which we do get already where I am at…heaven forfend a disaster down the mountain from where the local Electric Co-op taps into the grid. Wildfires take us down, high winds take us down, and I want also not to be hurt by a creakily aging electric grid very open to terrorist attack, or worse, a government shutoff from time to time just to let people know who’s in control. My house insurance will go up a little to cover the solar array, and I will have to have maintenance from time to time, as I do on everything.

And I can use the remainder of my little inheritance to invest in my land, and run a business producing high quality clean food. Or not…I might forgo the extra greenhouses, and invest in those beach houses at 14% interest…Mortgage Banking was my business, so I would at least know what I was doing. And then there is the gold play that I have a small stake in…who knows what the future will bring, but to have unencumbered land, house, greenhouse, solar array, well, and pumps without having to pay taxes or interest on the money to provide makes it a very good bargain.

As I note above - there are quite a large number of assumptions implicit in your calculation of long term 'independence'.

Feed-in tariffs are one.

Cost of your labor is another. I think it is great to grow your own food, but most people who have regular jobs can't do that - at least nowhere near to the levels of self sufficiency. A 'Victory Garden' type setup helps - particularly with fresh vegetables - but is a far, far cry from self sufficiency.

In Russia, I have a lot of friends who spend a lot of time at their dachas (summer houses). They all put in potatoes, strawberries, cucumbers, herbs, tomatoes, and the like. However, they also all freely acknowledge that this is primarily a hobby. The small plots they have are nowhere near the capacity to feed even one family, and larger plots require large amounts of labor and machinery.

As for hail, although I am in an upper mountain valley in Southern California, we rarely get hail...it's the mountains, sure, but it's also called high desert by a lot of weather people. And we get snow, but for rarely more than a few days, and at most 4-8 inches in a wet year, which we haven't been having lately. However, hail can be insured against. We are much more worried about high winds, and the Solar people are setting up for that, and again, I am insured.

Ah, so you're in a prime desert zone for solar - a nearly ideal area. Good for you.

I would note, however, that water access is probably non-trivial for a desert area.

Are you pipe or well?

Yes, but we have 30 million illegal Mexicans/South Americans living here already that take very low pay in order to live here, and raise their kids where the schooling is terrible, but is better than none...a nice plantation aspect of the Corporate people in the State.

The illegal immigrants in the US get paid far more than their relatives back home.

Labor costs are still a big part of agriculture in areas like fruit and vegetables.

That may be changing - there is a lot of effort being put into mechanical harvesters for more delicate products. Time will tell how that goes.

Yup...I actually plan to put in a composting toilet in my house...no need to waste the waste. But by bad ground water in other countries, I mean chemical dumps, factory waste in their streams and rivers, and a lot of pesticides that are illegal in the U.S. And then, there is a problem with really bad contamination and recalls of salad vegetables by sheer uncleanliness of the workers...we have a lot of problems with salmonella in our imported lettuce, celery, peppers, tomatoes and cucumbers. Using human waste for fertilizer is perfectly natural...but the bacteria is gotten rid of through the composting, and I sincerely doubt that anyone is going to be as careful about fertilizing my crops as I am. And fortunately, there is a lot of free fertilizer up here from racehorse breeders, ermine ranches, and of course, chickens.

While that's true - I have not seen any examples of chemical/pesticide type of foreign contamination getting into the US food supply. The primary examples I've seen are Salmonella type - and those aren't from the fertilizer.

I wouldn't be surprised if these outbreaks are due to the human factor in harvesting.