Losing the Presidential election is a blessing in disguise for the Republicans?

[touchring]

1. The US economy will be in much worst shape 4 years later.

2. It is going to be a lame duck presidency anyway.

3. The Command-in-Chief is going to have to deal with the great Middle East showdown of the century and will inevitably have blood on his hands. Mitt Romney should count on his lucky stars that he lost. He is rich and successful anyway, he doesn't need to dirty his hands and risk being labeled as responsible for starting WWIII.

[flintlock]

Re: Losing the Presidential election is a blessing in disguise for the Republicans?

Thats what I thought 4 years ago.

I think we have seen our last Republican in the White House. Demographics combined with economic factors beyond anyone's control at this point will sweep Socialists/Democrats into office in a landslide. The media has effectively labelled the Republicans as all Racist, greedy, white men. Look for a new party or party name at the very least in the next 10 years.

[doom&gloom]

Re: Losing the Presidential election is a blessing in disguise for the Republicans?

We have a potential oil recession/shock coming, we have the potential of the Benghazi affair blowing up, we certainly have the negative effects of Obamacare taking effect, with poor people being forced to payfor healthcare they cannot afford, while others who had full-time jobs being cut to part time to avoid the systm. we have the fiscal cliff issues, and most certainly the growing entitlement state of 47 million Americans on food stamps while expenditures for Medicare and Social Security continue to expand as Boomers retire.

Above all else, w have a potential rout in the bond market that could make all those problems even worse in the next four years.

As a fiscal conservative, social moderate, my position has been to leave Obama in there to finish whatever it is he thinks he is doing. Cause it ain't gonna work. Meanwhile, just as th left had "Blame Bush", the right will have plenty in four years to "Blame Barack" for...

I see no death of the Republican party, just a reset on some issues to come.

[wayiwalk]

Re: Losing the Presidential election is a blessing in disguise for the Republicans?

Thats what I thought 4 years ago.

I think we have seen our last Republican in the White House. Demographics combined with economic factors beyond anyone's control at this point will sweep Socialists/Democrats into office in a landslide. The media has effectively labelled the Republicans as all Racist, greedy, white men. Look for a new party or party name at the very least in the next 10 years.

I had a thought along similar lines after reading EJ's recent post (reality check, election edition) - that aspects of the north american oil/isolation scenario, once they admit they will develop energy in this country, along with the conservation (and eventually higher taxation if you don't conserve) would play to the strengths of democratic candidates more than republican.

In other words, for instance, can we really afford to be "world police". Romney wanted to increase military spending. Doesn't seem reasonable inthe scenarios laid out by EJ. But "a strong military" has been a major plank in the republican platform for decades.

Whereas for decades it was questioned whether a democrat could effectively hold the presidency and manage things on the world front, well, now that the world dynamics are truly changing, it is reasonable to question whether the republicans can successfully transition to be effective in interactions with the rest of the world.

I agree - the republicans will have to reinvent themselves in order to play in the future.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Losing the Presidential election is a blessing in disguise for the Republicans?

1. The US economy will be in much worst shape 4 years later.

2. It is going to be a lame duck presidency anyway.

3. The Command-in-Chief is going to have to deal with the great Middle East showdown of the century and will inevitably have blood on his hands. Mitt Romney should count on his lucky stars that he lost. He is rich and successful anyway, he doesn't need to dirty his hands and risk being labeled as responsible for starting WWIII.

All of these things were said by Republicans after 2008.

[flintlock]

Re: Losing the Presidential election is a blessing in disguise for the Republicans?

The last 4 years were not exactly "good times" in America either, yet Obama won by roughly the same vote as in 2008. Though I realize we are probably in for much worse times, I just don't think it matters to the voters who voted for Obama. Not when the alternative is portrayed as a three headed monster. It would take a radical change in the Republican party to switch most voters over to them, and then at what point does it have to sell out its core beliefs?

[dbarberic]

Re: Losing the Presidential election is a blessing in disguise for the Republicans?

It would take a radical change in the Republican party to switch most voters over to them, and then at what point does it have to sell out its core beliefs?

The Republic party has a subset of beliefs through Ron Paul that actually resonates very well with a large percentage of the population on both the left and the right, but FIRE ownership of both the Democrates and Republicans have effectively stomped out his message and prevented him from ever becoming a nominated candidate.

[Raz]

Re: Losing the Presidential election is a blessing in disguise for the Republicans?

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...984#post242984

[Raz]

Re: Losing the Presidential election is a blessing in disguise for the Republicans?


I'm not a fan of Hutchinson but do find most of his articles interesting. This one is certainly germain to the thread.



Being President Is No Fun Anymore

by Martin HutchinsoN

November 05, 2012

There’s a clear choice in Tuesday’s presidential election, and this column has in one way or another indicated its preference. However this close to the election, it is increasingly apparent that, given a realistic assessment of the policies likely to be pursued by either candidate, the years 2013-17 will be very unpleasant indeed. Entirely contrary to the experiences of Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, who both appear to have enjoyed their years in office, the President in the next four years will on many occasions wish he had chosen another line of work.

The United States’ problems, for which the President is directly responsible, are only one part of the noxious equation. Throughout the world, short-term policies have been pursued for the last five years, or in some cases for very much longer than that, and the bills for these episodes of fecklessness will come due in the next Presidential term. Given the highly globalized nature of the world we live in, these problems cannot be ignored; their effect on global trade and confidence, transmitted through the already fragile global financial system, will quickly produce unpleasant knock-on effects in the United States. The President may think he need not worry about developments in the Chinese banking system, for example, but he will discover that a collapse there, if it happens, will quickly cause adverse effects on the U.S. economy, slowing trade and increasing job losses.

The longest-festering of the problems likely to become critical in the next four years is that of Japan’s government debt. Currently 230% of GDP, it is increasing at around 10% of GDP each year, as the economy enjoys very little growth and the politicians struggle to raise revenues above 50% of spending. It’s possible Japan may next year elect the LDP’s Shinzo Abe, who showed at least some interest in attacking the problem in his previous period of office in 2006-7. Moreover, the current government has itself addressed the deficit, by raising Japan’s sales tax. However that may turn out counterproductive; if higher taxes produce renewed recession, the debt/GDP ratio will rise further, even though the deficit itself may decline.

The largest government debt ever successfully reduced without default was 250% of GDP, by Britain after 1815 and again after 1945 (the second time by inducing prolonged inflation and ripping off its citizens with negative real interest rates, thereby producing economic decline). By January 2017 Japan’s debt, at present rates of progress, will be 270% of GDP. The chances are that the market will notice the lack of precedent for successful management of such an indebtedness, and will panic, forcing up Japanese real interest rates and causing a major economic disruption (probably accompanied by huge loss of wealth and hardship, as the Japanese government, unable to finance its deficit, is forced to default).

Europe’s problem is younger than Japan’s, dating to the formation of the euro in 1999 rather than to the bursting of the Japanese bubble in 1990. However it is more insoluble. Whereas there is always the hope that even the consensus-mad Japanese will get a real leader who will take the politically difficult steps needed to avoid a crisis, Europe is structurally incapable of producing such a leader, because of the bureaucratic spaghetti built into the EU system. If one country, say Germany, were to get leadership capable of solving the problem, it would immediately be opposed by most of the other 16 members of the euro and fanatically opposed by the EU’s Ayn Rand-villain central officials, permanent bureaucracy and parliament. (The EU parliament must be the only parliamentary body that is ideologically committed to greater public spending, as distinct from just wanting to spread the boodle about.)

As I discussed last week, the EU has locked itself into a position of throwing ever-increasing resources at the budget problems of its weaker members, with no possibility of allowing them to escape from the euro and restore the competitiveness of their economies. Like most other public sector ideas spawned by Keynesians, this is at most a short-term solution to the common currency’s problems. The chances are that, like the Japanese problem and several other problems to be discussed, the short-term solution will prove to be unworkable well before January 2017. At that point, the debt markets for most eurozone government bonds will collapse and the EU will enter into a prolonged and deep recession, with living standards for all EU members declining by perhaps 20% as the continent’s capital base is liquidated. Needless to say, the effect on the U.S. economy of such a development will be very ugly indeed.

In the last four years, the world’s economic problems have appeared concentrated in its richer countries. Even Canada and Australia, which have strong energy and mineral sectors, have grown surprisingly sluggishly. The principal long-term cause of rich countries’ problems has been the improved global outsourcing capability through modern communications and the Internet. Better policies would have reduced the impact of these problems, as in Canada and Australia, but they are not about to go away. ...

http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php...w?art_id=10726

[lektrode]

Re: Losing the Presidential election is a blessing in disguise for the Republicans?

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...984#post242984

If the Republican Party has a future they will listen to Paleoconservatives and get off the empire, nation building, "war on terror" bumber sticker crapola. They will realize that there's no such thing as free trade, and they'll get over the idea that tax cuts can cure every economic ailment, even cancer. They can listen to the ideas of men like John Huntsman and Rand Paul or they will go the way of the Whigs.

+1
throttling the .mil-industrial complex by closing a bunch of overseas bases and let the rest of the world cover their own defense, with re-allocation of these resources into a full-ON/major build out of our 'ace in the hole' (that big N word again)
would allow 3 big birds to be whacked with one stone:
climate change, trade imbalances due to oil that funds our enemies, while bankrupting the federal budget
and the URGENT NEED TO PUT PEOPLE TO WORK on something that isnt merely maintaining the status quo (that just returned the current occupant to power)

if the 'pubs can articulate the vision thing on this ONE thing, methinks they'll have a winner

course that means they also have to throttle the anti-everything/luddite brigade and thats the hard part, IMHO.

[touchring]

Re: Losing the Presidential election is a blessing in disguise for the Republicans?

Whereas for decades it was questioned whether a democrat could effectively hold the presidency and manage things on the world front, well, now that the world dynamics are truly changing, it is reasonable to question whether the republicans can successfully transition to be effective in interactions with the rest of the world.

I agree - the republicans will have to reinvent themselves in order to play in the future.

I think this is not a Republican vs Democratic issue, but whether Obama is up to the job. Until now, I can only foresee disaster.

[touchring]

Re: Losing the Presidential election is a blessing in disguise for the Republicans?

The President may think he need not worry about developments in the Chinese banking system, for example, but he will discover that a collapse there, if it happens, will quickly cause adverse effects on the U.S. economy, slowing trade and increasing job losses.

Here I need to defend the US president.

Chinese banks are going to implode regardless of what happens in the US, it is only a matter of time, QE or not QE. Of course if you argued that the WTO wasn't passed in 2002, it wouldn't happened in the first place. They don't even use creative accounting, it is Madoff operation 50x - Mr Chairman, how much asset and profit growth do you want this year? The CFO will make up the rest. Just like Sinoforest.

Would this be the fault of the American President?

It is also not the fault of the American President if a Chinese minister's family is rumored to have made billions of dollars - and this is considered the low end for a politburo minister. Others raked in much more... tens of billions?

The fault is the corruption of the political system. Unlike America, there's no second party to take over and do an audit.

[Raz]

Re: Losing the Presidential election is a blessing in disguise for the Republicans?

Here I need to defend the US president.

Chinese banks are going to implode regardless of what happens in the US, it is only a matter of time, QE or not QE. Of course if you argued that the WTO wasn't passed in 2002, it wouldn't happened in the first place. They don't even use creative accounting, it is Madoff operation 50x - Mr Chairman, how much asset and profit growth do you want this year? The CFO will make up the rest. Just like Sinoforest.

Would this be the fault of the American President?

It is also not the fault of the American President if a Chinese minister's family is rumored to have made billions of dollars - and this is considered the low end for a politburo minister. Others raked in much more... tens of billions?

The fault is the corruption of the political system. Unlike America, there's no second party to take over and do an audit.

I don't think Hutchinson was assigning blame to Obama, or Romney, should he have won.
He only seemed to be saying that whoever wins the American Presidency in 2012 would face a rough four years - and just might wish they hadn't won the election.

[touchring]

Re: Losing the Presidential election is a blessing in disguise for the Republicans?

I don't think Hutchinson was assigning blame to Obama, or Romney, should he have won.
He only seemed to be saying that whoever wins the American Presidency in 2012 would face a rough four years - and just might wish they hadn't won the election.

I reread the article, that's true. In my opinion, there will be painful short term adjustments but in the medium term, a financial crisis in China will benefit the US through lower resource and oil prices, a flow back of investment funds.

Of course, Wall Street will be hit badly since US companies make a lot of money in the Chinese domestic markets.

But the world will still do fine, as in the world economy existed before the 2002 WTO meeting? And the world and the US economy was better at that time, please correct me if I'm wrong. ;)

[flintlock]

Re: Losing the Presidential election is a blessing in disguise for the Republicans?

The Republic party has a subset of beliefs through Ron Paul that actually resonates very well with a large percentage of the population on both the left and the right, but FIRE ownership of both the Democrates and Republicans have effectively stomped out his message and prevented him from ever becoming a nominated candidate.

I agree, but we saw how well Paul fared in his bids. Perhaps his son will have better luck.

http://www.policymic.com/articles/19...esidential-run