Daily Graphs & Charts

[NCR85]

The idea of this thread is to simply post graphs and charts of interest without necessarily providing much context or clarification. That way we can get a lot of relevant data out there without obsessing over whether the post meets some kind of quality standard. I've had threads like these on other forums and they tend to be very successful.

I'll kick off the thread with these three:





http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9583



I like the first two for their historical data more so than for their forecasts because I don't really know enough about the model they are generated from to cast judgment. Notice that the development of energy usage changed radically somewhere in the 1970s. Is it a coincidence that the gold standard was dropped around the same time and massive changes to the US monetary regime took place?

[don]

Re: Daily Graphs & Charts

Notice that the development of energy usage changed radically somewhere in the 1970s. Is it a coincidence that the gold standard was dropped around the same time and massive changes to the US monetary regime took place?

It wasn't only De Gaulle wanting gold to balance the books. The petrodollar crisis, in response to the fiat dollar incoming tide, was pending. All factors in the reserve currency mix.

[NCR85]

Re: Daily Graphs & Charts

That’s all of the federal government’s spending in three graphs. The top graph is health care, including Medicare, Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act. The middle graph is Social Security. And then there’s literally everything else: Defense, education, infrastructure, food safety, R&D, farm subsidies, the FBI, etc.

What these three charts tell you is simple: It’s all about health care. Spending on Social Security is expected to rise, but not particularly quickly. Spending on everything else is actually falling. It’s health care that contains most all of our future deficit problems. And the situation is even worse than it looks on this graph: Private health spending is racing upwards even faster than public health spending, so the problem the federal government is showing in its budget projections is mirrored on the budgets of every family and business that purchases health insurance.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...-our-deficits/

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: Daily Graphs & Charts

I got the idea for these from a paper by Alasdair MacLeod. In the spirit of this thread, this is "plop charts". Data from FRED. No comment.

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: Daily Graphs & Charts

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...-our-deficits/

Bogus charts:
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/...ase-model.html

[NCR85]

Re: Daily Graphs & Charts

A *little* bit of clarification would be helpful. The point of the thread is to post graphs quickly, but not to be obscure to the point of keeping people guessing.

I gather that TMS is the True Money Supply: http://mises.org/content/nofed/chart.aspx

Ok, so that's exponentially growing in nominal terms. Hardly all that strange a thing considering nominal GDP normally also grows at almost 5% a year. Exponentially growing nominal variables aren't that hard to come by. The slope of the curvature mainly looks dramatic due to the choice of the Y axis denominations.

AMB-Gold does't ring a bell with me...

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: Daily Graphs & Charts

A *little* bit of clarification would be helpful. The point of the thread is to post graphs quickly, but not to be obscure to the point of keeping people guessing.

I gather that TMS is the True Money Supply: http://mises.org/content/nofed/chart.aspx

Ok, so that's exponentially growing in nominal terms. Hardly all that strange a thing considering nominal GDP normally also grows at almost 5% a year. Exponentially growing nominal variables aren't that hard to come by. The slope of the curvature mainly looks dramatic due to the choice of the Y axis denominations.

AMB-Gold doesn't ring a bell with me...

The curve is not an exponential. In fact the exponential is a very poor fit to the data. The curve is known as a hyperbola. It is of interest because it has a distinct date at which it becomes infinite. For this curve the date is 2/20/2017. It seems unlikely that the gold price will be loafing along when the money supply is shooting to infinity. The second curve measures the Adjusted Monetary Base vs. the gold price. The red line is doing what I expect ( i.e. growing faster than the money supply ). An interpretation of this set of curves would be that hyperinflation in US dollar terms will happen before 2017.

If you are asking for a deeper interpretation of these charts, I'm not sure I can provide one. As you surmise, the True Money Supply and Adjusted Monetary Base are different measures of the money supply. How these interrelate I don't know. In fact I think the TMS + excess reserves measure seems a little contrived. You might ask EJ if this metric is useful.
This is an updated chart showing the best fit exponential:


I had originally intended to write blog post about these, but thought better of it in light of the complexity of sorting out the money supply metrics. I was influenced by this:
http://www.financeandeconomics.org/a...d-gold-prices/
and this:
http://www.caseyresearch.com/article...e-january-2014
Both of which have poor charts.

This is another paper that motivated my charts:
http://www.financialsense.com/contri...-255-per-ounce

[NCR85]

Re: Daily Graphs & Charts

Global trade has been looking very weak in the last few months:



In the most recent data, however, there is a slight upsweep:



http://www.businessinsider.com/signs...ebound-2012-11

[FRED]

Re: Daily Graphs & Charts

Global trade has been looking very weak in the last few months:



In the most recent data, however, there is a slight upsweep:



http://www.businessinsider.com/signs...ebound-2012-11

Growth peaked for major economies in early 2010. Fat red arrow is the trend since then.

[NCR85]

Re: Daily Graphs & Charts

Three main groups of jurisdictions emerge when analysing the structure of financial systems based on the share of banks, insurance companies and pension funds, other NBFIs/OFIs, public financial institutions and central banks in the total (see Annex 2 and Exhibit 3-1):
•A first group includes advanced economies characterised by a dominant share of banks combined with a limited share of OFIs that does not exceed 20%. Jurisdictions such as Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Spain fall in this category.
•A second group includes economies where the share of OFIs is above 20% of the total financial system and relatively similar, or higher, to that of banks. For instance, the Netherlands, the UK, the US, fall in this category.
•A third group includes emerging market and developing economies where the share of public financial institutions or the central bank is significant, often on account of high foreign exchange reserves or sovereign wealth funds, and where the share of OFIs is relatively low. This group includes jurisdictions such as Argentina, China, Indonesia, Russia and Saudi Arabia.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-1...modern-finance

Cool graphs on the struture and distribution of financial institutions in various nations.

[NCR85]

Re: Daily Graphs & Charts



US 5 year inflation expectations with QE announcement dates marked.





http://www.businessinsider.com/china...roblem-2012-12

China is actually confronted with a labor shortage and sees it's labor costs steeply rising.

[NCR85]

Re: Daily Graphs & Charts



what happened to interest payments on this debt through the same period? interest rates weren't quite as low as they are now through most of that period, but they were also low at the start of the decade, right?

is this trend also going on in countries with state funded tertiary education, except the costs ramp up for the state rather than the student?

[NCR85]

Re: Daily Graphs & Charts


US Tax revenue as a % of GDP since 1950.



Two graphs that may seem contradictory at first glance.

[charliebrown]

Re: Daily Graphs & Charts

Can someone please explain to me how 90% through 50% marignal tax rates worked? Surely, the rich had some loopholes right? Some rich person making ??? In 1964 paid 90% of their income in taxes? I assume after state and local taxes were added on they might even owe the gvt more than their income.
What was the effective rate for a person just over the 90% bracket? What income level triggered the 90% rate? How many times a median 1964 income was the 90% bracket at.

[globaleconomicollaps]

treasury yields

I have been thinking about interest rates and the centrality of interest rates to the financial system.

This is a chart of interest rates in the US:


Note the big spread between the 30 year and the 1 year. Zerohedge has maintained that the intent is to "pancake the curve" (i.e to reduce all interest rates to zero). It seems to me that the intent and the effective result of fed policy is to create as wide a gap as possible. Banks make money from the spread. The wider the spread the more money they make. The gap between the 30 year and the 1 year or 5 year in absolute term is very large right now:

Although declining those rates are still near historic highs.

Measured in percentage terms the gap is growing:


bank profits depend on both the absolute and the percentage gap. If the absolute gap is high, they can make money with fewer loans, but if the percentage gap is high, but the absolute gap is low, it looks to me like they can still make money, they just need to write more mortgages.

My spreadsheet