If Obama wins, Israel wil not survive.

[c1ue]

Re: If Obama wins, Israel wil not survive.

You must first understand their mentality. Syrian allawite militias claim that they would rather have a Syria burnt to the ground than to accept a Syria without Assad. The Mullahs will be in control regardless of what happens to the nuclear program. I'm sure the Mullahs will think the same and rather have Iran burnt to the ground, even to the last man, than for the infidels to take over.

Perhaps you can elucidate how you come by this understanding.

Have you ever been in Syria? Do you have relatives who are Alawite? Druze? Shi'a? Shi'ite?

The part which you're missing, which you continue to miss, is well expressed above: that the only choice is burning Syria to the ground or having Assad.

The real world allows a much greater range of choices, but these aren't being looked at because the drivers behind this conflict have different goals than 'democracy' or whatever masking term du jour is used.

Just as we can argue that a military action on the nuclear program will not achieve its aim, one can also argue that the consequence of a military action is a Y2K event - people will forget about it after 6 months.

What ridiculous nonsense is this? Military action, prior to the 'Arab Spring', wasn't an issue. Perhaps you've forgotten that Syria was an active participant in the anti-terror activities as exemplified by their use of 'extraordinary rendition'.

GW Bush ordered the invasion of Iraq based on false information. 200,000 Iraqis died in the aftermath, is GW Bush in Hague? No. No one even talks about it any more.

Israel has got more reasons (self-defense, Iran's violation of UN resolutions and Iranian leadership multiple threats) to strike Iran than GW Bush invasion of Iraq.

I believe that the possibility of a military action by the end of 2012 is more than 20:80 although I can't say by how much.

So if I understand correctly, since Dubya wasn't prosecuted, neither will Israel be prosecuted for attacking Iran?

Except, of course, Israel isn't the US, a US president, or even a world superpower.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: If Obama wins, Israel wil not survive.

While the iTulip opinion is that Israel may strike Iran before the election, I wonder how important polling numbers are for Israeli leadership and military planners?

While I don't believe a pre-election direct strike on Iran will occur, I wonder what the value of a lame duck Obama Presidency and incoming President Romney would have on Israeli and global leadership?

Would a strike by Israel(Syria/Iran/wherever) during a lame duck Obama Presidency be a more convenient opportunity for the Israelis instead of pre-election?

Would an incoming Romney be able to reboot and wipe the slate with Israel as his hands would be somewhat deniably clean(although he'd be getting fully briefed)?

[cjppjc]

Re: If Obama wins, Israel wil not survive.

The iTulip opinion is Israel may strike Iran before the election? May is not exactly a word that strong opinions are made of. Could someone flesh this out a bit for me. If this prediction is behind the pay wall, then I understand no reply will be forthcomming.

[BadJuju]

Re: If Obama wins, Israel wil not survive.

It is behind the pay wall, my friend.

[touchring]

Re: If Obama wins, Israel wil not survive.

While the iTulip opinion is that Israel may strike Iran before the election, I wonder how important polling numbers are for Israeli leadership and military planners?

While I don't believe a pre-election direct strike on Iran will occur, I wonder what the value of a lame duck Obama Presidency and incoming President Romney would have on Israeli and global leadership?

Would a strike by Israel(Syria/Iran/wherever) during a lame duck Obama Presidency be a more convenient opportunity for the Israelis instead of pre-election?

Would an incoming Romney be able to reboot and wipe the slate with Israel as his hands would be somewhat deniably clean(although he'd be getting fully briefed)?

The question is if Israel strikes after Obama won the presidency, do you think Obama will support them?

On the other hand, if Israel strikes during the pre-election, will Obama condemn Israel?


If Israel strikes just before or even during the election, Obama can say:

We regret that Israel has decided to take the military option instead of diplomacy, however, as you can see, I am busy campaigning for my second term, in all honesty, I swear to god that this decision was taken by Israel alone and that I was not informed until it had happened.

Nonetheless, the US will try her best to ensure that the Middle East is free of nuclear weapons. The US will not tolerant any military action in the Gulf (that is Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, etc) that will destablize the region.

[aaron]

Re: If Obama wins, Israel wil not survive.

I am only giving examples, these dudes are very imaginative, remember that Steve Jobs is also half Arab. Who would have thought it a million years that they would have hijacked planes and direct them towards the Pentagon?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt_of_Honor

Tom Clancy did. 1994

[c1ue]

Re: If Obama wins, Israel wil not survive.

Nonetheless, the US will try her best to ensure that the Middle East is free of nuclear weapons.

Sorry, but this statement is already false. Israel already has nuclear weapons, and is not just sitting on that but building nuclear missile subs and ICBMs.

So unless you really mean "any nation of the Middle East which isn't a virtual US proxy is free of nuclear weapons"...

[littleshark]

Re: If Obama wins, Israel wil not survive.

Obama is also doing his job by staying out of Syria.

Syria has no oil.

[touchring]

Re: If Obama wins, Israel wil not survive.

Firstly, even a child will know that Iran is going to sit and quietly develop their nukes. They won't make the first move. So Israel will never succeed taunting Iran.

Secondly, if Israel knows that ranting non-stop about military action won't cause the nuclear program to stop anyway.

Thirdly, Israel should know that Obama will never carry out a military strike on Iran's nuclear program.

All this military action talk is in fact bad for Israel because it scares away investors and tourists.

So what's the purpose of aggressive talk?

[flintlock]

Re: If Obama wins, Israel wil not survive.

My thoughts on Iran and Israel and regime change are much the same as yours.

I doubt the Israelis (or Americans) could completely wreck the Iranian nuclear program. And politically it would be a disaster that only serves to strengthen the Mullahs.

x2. I can't see Israel by itself even standing a chance of wrecking the program. But there may be an Achillies heel for all I know. I think at some point, if they thought they would succeed, its a done deal. But not this year.

As for the will to destroy each other. I suppose its human nature to want to believe men cannot fathom nuclear war, but history shows us some people simply don't give a f#*k about being rational.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: If Obama wins, Israel wil not survive.

The question is if Israel strikes after Obama won the presidency, do you think Obama will support them?

I think it would risk a growing divide between Israel/US much like Israel/France(Israel's biggest foreign weapons supplier at the time) in the 60's.

It would certainly be FAR more serious than the delay in delivery of several F16s and "naughty naughty! wink wink nudge nudge" post Raid on Osirak in the early 80's under Reagan

On the other hand, if Israel strikes during the pre-election, will Obama condemn Israel?

If Israel strikes just before or even during the election, Obama can say:

I'm sticking my neck on the line again and saying Israel will NOT strike Iran pre-election....at least not in Iran....and at least not with conventional weapons.

I think it is far more likely for Israel to send another escalated message to Iran via an Israeli attack on Syria's WMDs and/or Iranian presence in the Assad regime(even though Syria is a bit of a lose/lose for Israel), and/or an asymmetric attack on Iranian nuclear leadership/infrastructure that reaches the media.

[BadJuju]

Re: If Obama wins, Israel wil not survive.

I'm sticking my neck on the line again and saying Israel will NOT strike Iran pre-election....at least not in Iran....and at least not with conventional weapons.

I think it is far more likely for Israel to send another escalated message to Iran via an Israeli attack on Syria's WMDs and/or Iranian presence in the Assad regime(even though Syria is a bit of a lose/lose for Israel), and/or an asymmetric attack on Iranian nuclear leadership/infrastructure that reaches the media.

Never mind the fact that they are not going to be able to do a damn thing about the election at this point as Romney's train is derailing and derailing fast. By forcing this issue before the election, they are just going to draw the ire of Obama and the Democrats.

[touchring]

Re: If Obama wins, Israel wil not survive.

Never mind the fact that they are not going to be able to do a damn thing about the election at this point as Romney's train is derailing and derailing fast. By forcing this issue before the election, they are just going to draw the ire of Obama and the Democrats.

Since the probability of being able to convince Obama to act is close to zero, there appears to be only 2 possibilities:

1. Netanyahu is a fool, Obama is a vegan, anti-killing, anti-war Nobel Prize winner.

2. It's all an act, Obama while publicly denying is actually supplying Netanyahu with the latest bunker busting armament.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: If Obama wins, Israel wil not survive.

Since the probability of being able to convince Obama to act is close to zero, there appears to be only 2 possibilities:

1. Netanyahu is a fool, Obama is a vegan, anti-killing, anti-war Nobel Prize winner.

2. It's all an act, Obama while publicly denying is actually supplying Netanyahu with the latest bunker busting armament.

Supposedly the US has already delivered some serious heavy metal in recent years:

http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Isra...alarm_999.html

http://www.defensenews.com/article/2...-Bunker-Buster

Even if Israel had 1000 of the things AND the force projection capability to delivery ALL of them quickly and decisively, it wouldn't change the fact that an Israeli attack could actually be beneficial to the entrenched regime with the unhappy public circling the wagons around the regime against foreign interference.

[touchring]

Re: If Obama wins, Israel wil not survive.

Supposedly the US has already delivered some serious heavy metal in recent years:

http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Isra...alarm_999.html

http://www.defensenews.com/article/2...-Bunker-Buster

Even if Israel had 1000 of the things AND the force projection capability to delivery ALL of them quickly and decisively, it wouldn't change the fact that an Israeli attack could actually be beneficial to the entrenched regime with the unhappy public circling the wagons around the regime against foreign interference.

I see no evidence that the theocracy is in danger of failing. There's no way an Islamic regime will fall by itself. Even the Taliban controls much of Afghanistan despite fighting the whole world and will return if NATO withdraws.

The theocracy is here to stay and will gain power as the West wanes.