NG may now be a better bet than gold.

[touchring]

NG is cheap in the US, but very expensive in Asia (x10-x20) and relatively more expensive in Europe. This might be the reason why NG stocks are now undervalued. When it is cheap, people take it for granted.

[aaron]

Re: NG may now be a better bet than gold.

Are they undervalued? As far as I know, there is no infrastructure built to export gas to Asia or Europe, and there is too much political opposition to build them now. So, you have companies losing money.

When fracking shows its true colors (that wells deplete quickly) and gas production drops, the companies that survive might be a good bargain. I think the time to buy will be when we first see a number of smaller companies go bankrupt. There will be a huge amount of fear in the stock market at the beginning of this process and even the big ones with "real" gas will get hammered. Then, people will realize that there will no longer be a surplus of gas and bid the good companies up in price.

These companies are surviving on debt. This whole thing will end like the dot com bubble. Likely it will happen during the next recession. (Or after GM comes out with an award winning natural gas volt).

Timing is everything.

[touchring]

Re: NG may now be a better bet than gold.

When fracking shows its true colors (that wells deplete quickly) and gas production drops, the companies that survive might be a good bargain. I think the time to buy will be when we first see a number of smaller companies go bankrupt. There will be a huge amount of fear in the stock market at the beginning of this process and even the big ones with "real" gas will get hammered. Then, people will realize that there will no longer be a surplus of gas and bid the good companies up in price.

You're right. Wait till a few companies go bankrupt. It is already happening for solar energy.

[doom&gloom]

Re: NG may now be a better bet than gold.

on iTunes S&A Investor podcast, Porter Stansbery expects that many NG companies will go bust, and assets will be sold off cheap -- right before a number of LNG terminals become available to ship LNG out of the US and thus boost prices. It was an interesting approach to the market.

[flintlock]

Re: NG may now be a better bet than gold.

Are they undervalued? As far as I know, there is no infrastructure built to export gas to Asia or Europe, and there is too much political opposition to build them now. So, you have companies losing money.

When fracking shows its true colors (that wells deplete quickly) and gas production drops, the companies that survive might be a good bargain. I think the time to buy will be when we first see a number of smaller companies go bankrupt. There will be a huge amount of fear in the stock market at the beginning of this process and even the big ones with "real" gas will get hammered. Then, people will realize that there will no longer be a surplus of gas and bid the good companies up in price.

These companies are surviving on debt. This whole thing will end like the dot com bubble. Likely it will happen during the next recession. (Or after GM comes out with an award winning natural gas volt).

Timing is everything.

You are correct, as I learned the hard way. NG is regional.

[touchring]

Re: NG may now be a better bet than gold.

You are correct, as I learned the hard way. NG is regional.

Not just NG, Solar and Wind are getting trashed badly. I remembered iTulip was writing about the impending bubble in renewable energy stocks.

Ultimately, demand and supply is even more important than money printing.

Why gold is falling? The Indians are the biggest buyers of gold. Are the Indians in trouble?

[Bundi]

Re: NG may now be a better bet than gold.

NG is cheap in the US, but very expensive in Asia (x10-x20) and relatively more expensive in Europe. This might be the reason why NG stocks are now undervalued. When it is cheap, people take it for granted.

I've heard that Asia and Europe NG pricing is by custom, tied to the price of oil and that this tradition may not last as NG becomes more of a global play. In other words, the Asia and EU NG pricing is not necessarily all supply/demand driven, for the NG anyway. Perhaps worth keeping in mind when evaluating US NG exporter investments, at least longer term. Also, read today that something like 70% of known proven NG reserves run from western Siberia down through the central Asia (stans) into the middle east. The U.S. may, relatively speaking, not be a major exporter over the long term.

[lektrode]

Re: NG may now be a better bet than gold.

...The U.S. may, relatively speaking, not be a major exporter over the long term.

but that would be a GOOD thing, IMHO.

The US should NOT be exporting _any_ energy resources - to the point of PROHIBITING LEGISLATION

the very idea that anything hydrocarbon related would be EXPORTED??? in the present situation, as far as i am concerned is just as bad as capital (any kind) leaving the country
altho i would offer a compromise and allow exports of uranium etc to countries that buy our nuke knowhow.