When to buy oil?

[porter]

I posted this question in the Ask EJ select forum months ago, and have not received a direct response from EJ (In fact I have several questions outstanding that have gone unanswered for more than a year - So as a side note, if you're thinking about subscribing for the Ask EJ feature, don't).

At any rate, what I'm wondering is whether or not it's time to buy oil. EJ mentioned in one of his pieces that he was tracking USO and waiting for it to drop another 20% or so (when it was at about $32 per share). That 20% drop hasn't happened, so I'm wondering if now is the time to buy, despite the price being well above $32 per share.

Thoughts?

[jk]

Re: When to buy oil?

in the thread deriving from his most recent piece, ej remarked that he bought gold as a proxy for oil, since he didn't like any of the vehicles available to buy oil.

for several years i've been espousing small, dividend paying, canadian producers as a vehicle- essentially you're buying oil in the ground in a politically safe jurisdiction, and every month they pump a bit and send you the proceeds. ej's concern about them [expressed a while back, can't give you a link other than my memory] was that such producers own assets with a limited life, and might not capture oil moves in the future, or even repay your investment.

so if you like ej's reasoning, just be happy with your pm's. but don't expect advice from him on when and how to purchase oil. afaik he's not going to do it.

[porter]

Re: When to buy oil?

Thanks for the reply jk.

in the thread deriving from his most recent piece, ej remarked that he bought gold as a proxy for oil, since he didn't like any of the vehicles available to buy oil.

I must have missed his change is strategy. His peak cheap oil piece had an entire analysis on which oil ETF's to buy, and concluded with USO. I don't recall him saying he didn't like any of the vehicles available to buy oil. Was there another piece that I missed where EJ retracted his original advice?

so if you like ej's reasoning, just be happy with your pm's. but don't expect advice from him on when and how to purchase oil. afaik he's not going to do it.

Up until now, I expected advice from this site on when and how to invest. Isn't that why itulip.com exists?

[jk]

Re: When to buy oil?

I must have missed his change is strategy. His peak cheap oil piece had an entire analysis on which oil ETF's to buy, and concluded with USO. I don't recall him saying he didn't like any of the vehicles available to buy oil. Was there another piece that I missed where EJ retracted his original advice?

i don't think there was an explicit renunciation of the idea of buying oil. it's just that he never pulled the trigger. it was brought up by various people many times, but it was never the right time. then, uso has been killed by tracking error because of contango. and when i brought up canadian trusts, the criticism i mentioned was the response. in the most recent thread, ej just said he didn't like the canadian trusts [they are trusts no longer, btw, but corporations now] without further explication this time around. so no one has managed to come up with a way to invest in oil that ej has found acceptable . his most recent statement, as i said, was that he thought of gold as a proxy for oil

Up until now, I expected advice from this site on when and how to invest. Isn't that why itulip.com exists?

i don't expect explicit advice, myself. sometimes there's advice- "buy gold," or "time to short," but the calls are few and far between. and many predictions, e.g. re specific s&p or dow levels, have been wrong. what i expect from itulip is stimulating analysis and discussion to help me understand what's happening in the [political] economy, and occasional ideas about investing. i've learned a lot over the years from ej's pieces, and i've also learned a lot from the contributions of various members. [for example, extensive discussions years ago about the merits and risks in various vehicles for investing in pm's.]

i thought ej's pm analysis was right. i had already bought pm's when gold was around 380, before i found itulip, but it reinforced my conviction, which helped me ride out the bumps along the way. i thought the oil analysis was right, and i decided not to wait for ej or anyone else to start buying. i researched the alternatives a bit, and decided i was most comfortable with canadian producers. so i started buying them.

you need to figure out what works for you, what you understand and what you're comfortable with. i started investing in 1976, and i know a lot more now than i did then. i'm doing ok, but i don't take that for granted, and i know i could take substantial losses if my analyses are wrong. unfortunately, in today's world [since the 1970's at least], there are NO safe long-term choices. inflation will destroy any strategies which are superficially safe and stable. so you do the best you can.

[*T*]

Re: When to buy oil?

I was just today considering buying solar as an option like play on the oil price. I had previously been waiting for a good pullback but i don't expect one now. And now with the recent geopolitical situation, if Saud falls, it's game over for the petrodollar and cheap oil.

Ps jk speaks wisdom; he is one of the posters here i make sure I read.

[porter]

Re: When to buy oil?

Maybe the second peak cheap oil recession will be here sooner than we think....

http://www.businessinsider.com/deuts...-growth-2011-2


Perhaps it will be time to sell oil soon rather than buy/hang onto it?

[Slimprofits]

Re: When to buy oil?

I posted this question in the Ask EJ select forum months ago, and have not received a direct response from EJ (In fact I have several questions outstanding that have gone unanswered for more than a year - So as a side note, if you're thinking about subscribing for the Ask EJ feature, don't).

At any rate, what I'm wondering is whether or not it's time to buy oil. EJ mentioned in one of his pieces that he was tracking USO and waiting for it to drop another 20% or so (when it was at about $32 per share). That 20% drop hasn't happened, so I'm wondering if now is the time to buy, despite the price being well above $32 per share.

Thoughts?

When to buy oil?

When it was @ $66.00 in September of 2009...

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...p/12139-66-oil

Sorry, I'm feeling like a wiseass today.

[metalman]

Re: When to buy oil?

When to buy oil?

When it was @ $66.00 in September of 2009...

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...p/12139-66-oil

Sorry, I'm feeling like a wiseass today.

when to buy anything... except housing?

march 2009.

show me a chart of anything since mar 2009 & i'll show you a bottom.

[flintlock]

Re: When to buy oil?

Yeah, I'm still not understanding why with oil over $100 my Penn West Energy(PWE) isn't going anywhere. Its been very good to me for the two years I've owned it, but now that oil prices take off it's flat. ???? Admittedly I know very little about the oil business. ;)

[flintlock]

Re: When to buy oil?

when to buy anything... except housing?

march 2009.

show me a chart of anything since mar 2009 & i'll show you a bottom.

So very true! All the " I wish I hads" and the " I could haves" in my mind. I did buy PWE at about $7 though. I did manage to summon up the courage for that one. Thanks to my brother, Very smart guy. (whom a few bad apples on here scared off several years ago. Smart guy. No tolerance for jerks.) Itulip's loss.

[Slimprofits]

Re: When to buy oil?

when to buy anything... except housing?

march 2009.

show me a chart of anything since mar 2009 & i'll show you a bottom.

Oil bottomed in Dec. '08 - Jan '09.

And as I pointed out, Sept. '09 ($66) was the last, best opportunity to get in late: http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...966#post124966

[jk]

Re: When to buy oil?

there might be another good opportunity within the next few months. [end of qe2, dissipation of fiscal stimulus, new "deflation scare"]