My new portfolio balance- Don't mind me, I'm just blathering

[pianodoctor]

It was a very big step for me. I feel like talking about it, but iTulipers are the only people in my life who would possibly have any interest in this type of thing.

Background: I came to iTulip late. Had a big stock port of foreigns that crashed badly in '07. Been trying to get on board with EJ's concept of a port, in steps, ever since.

So, over time, via saving and a few stock sales I gradually made various moves to achieve a port balance including 22.5% gold and 7.5% silver.

By 2011 I was feeling that my stock portion of the port had recovered enough that maybe I ought to get out while the getting is still good, before some big China or sovereign risk shock hits.

This a.m. I pulled the trigger. Sold a lot of stocks. Just 1-2% off the (post crash) all time top of my port.

So the new port balance is 55% cash, 30% G&S, 15% stocks. The stocks I kept had their NAVs well beaten down. Several never recovered much from '07. Included are Canadian trusts and a couple other commodity-related foreigns from strong currency countries. They are good dividend payers, paying an average of about 9% dividend yield.

I think this is about as close to an "iTulip" ideal port as I am going to get. I don't see the sense in selling the remaining stocks right now, given what they pay and in the currencies they pay them. I hope it works out. We'll see what the future brings. But I took a whole lot of risk off the table today, I believe. Phew.

[don]

Re: My new portfolio balance- Don't mind me, I'm just blathering

Welcome Home!

(the down side- most of us are bored silly waiting this out, at least day-to-day. The big picture - another story)

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: My new portfolio balance- Don't mind me, I'm just blathering

...I think this is about as close to an "iTulip" ideal port as I am going to get. ... I hope it works out. ... I took a whole lot of risk off the table today, I believe. Phew.

I remember adopting the iTulip stance just before the dotcom crash in 1999, rolling all the stocks into CDs and beginning to accumulate physical gold.

For a while I felt foolish because the party lasted a little while longer. My friends were bragging about the latest great returns on their Cisco stock and teasing me about sitting on 5 year CDs paying 7 percent. By 2003 I felt much smarter, the teasing stopped, and the wife admitted we'd done the right thing. It's worked out pretty well ever since.

[pianodoctor]

Re: My new portfolio balance- Don't mind me, I'm just blathering

Thanks for the comments. Don, I'm sure it will be a lot less boring once gold volatility kicks in. ;-)

Of course, I'll still be somewhat 'entertained' by the small amount of stocks I still have. In the event we continue to have a bull stock market, I'll probably look for opportunities to take profits if any of those NAVs go positive. Despite their good dividend yields, I'd hate to watch the NAV get cut in half again in the next big market decline. I'd rather cash out and wait for better oppys in the next era.

[flintlock]

Re: My new portfolio balance- Don't mind me, I'm just blathering

Thats what I do. I take about 10% of our portfolio and "play" with it in stocks. It keeps me thinking and connected to what is going on. It a good way to learn as well.

[BK]

Re: My new portfolio balance- Don't mind me, I'm just blathering

Are there any readers of this thread that follow Fleckenstein and Fred Hickey - in addition to itulip?

Hickey and Fleckenstein are huge proponents of Gold - but, they also believe the Money printing will provide great Investment opportunities in select stocks.

Curious.

[rjwjr]

Re: My new portfolio balance- Don't mind me, I'm just blathering

LOL, at least you guys have the sense to go long when you are bored. I get bored and try to time the "inevitable" major correction. I'll sit in a bear fund for a few weeks, lose a few grand, sell it at a loss. A couple of months later, boredom creeps in, short term memory loss engages, and I go short again...what a freakin' idiot I am.

Don't follow Fleckenstein or Hickey. My long stocks (about 15% of total investable portfolio remain with Hussman since he remains so well hedged against a possible correction.

Oh yeah, Hussman has also added about 8% gold exposure (mining shares if memory serves me correctly) to his holdings relatively recently.

[jk]

Re: My new portfolio balance- Don't mind me, I'm just blathering

Are there any readers of this thread that follow Fleckenstein and Fred Hickey - in addition to itulip?

Hickey and Fleckenstein are huge proponents of Gold - but, they also believe the Money printing will provide great Investment opportunities in select stocks.

Curious.

i've been reading fleck since he was publishing at the silicon investors site, in the late '90s, well before i discovered itulip in '06, and hickey for a few years. i haven't gotten much out of hickey, especially since i don't trade. fleck has been consistent with the general itulip stance, but without as deep a macro analysis and without any pretension to long term predictions ["trying to look too many moves ahead" is how he'd describe it]. for myself, i cut back my exposures a bit a few weeks ago, in anticipation of the end of qe in june, and by chance shortly before the quake/tsunami/meltdowns and their consequent volatility. i cut back pm's to 30% gold, 10% silver. reduced energy from 20% down to 15%. maintained my agriculture exposure at about 7%, kept about 8% shorts and a handful of miscellaneous longs.


and pianodoctor: i've bet you've been sleeping better the last few weeks than you would have been with your old portfolio. albeit not as exciting, of course.

[pianodoctor]

Re: My new portfolio balance- Don't mind me, I'm just blathering

I don't know if anyone is still following this thread, but what the hey, here's a quick update: Had an opportunity to unload more stock this week. One of my remaining (Canadian natural gas related) stocks rallied and I broke even on the NAV (stock bought 4 years ago) but it's been paying dividends in the 8% range. I just couldn't resist the oppy to reduce risk some more, and at a profit, mostly already taxed. So now I'm down to 10% stock- all foreigns with very beaten down NAVs but high dividends. And conversely, my cash increased about 5%. Now I just have to stay disciplined with patience and wait for oppys to come. I expect it will be boring for a good while...... not that there's anything wrong with that.

[don]

Re: My new portfolio balance- Don't mind me, I'm just blathering

Speaking of portfolios, we're getting closer to buying a resident to live in. Using the Rent or Buy site (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/b...avid_leonhardt), a gem, I entered an appreciation number of -1% per year over 10.

Based on another substantial price-step drop, eventually caught by an inflating bonar. Ten years was my time frame.

Sound reasonable or too optimistic?

Tangentially, I added a rent increase of 3% a year over 10. Rents should remain flat, but for how long?

(Caveat: this is housing that has seen a 60% drop since bubble-mania)

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: My new portfolio balance- Don't mind me, I'm just blathering

This a.m. I pulled the trigger. Sold a lot of stocks. Just 1-2% off the (post crash) all time top of my port.

But I took a whole lot of risk off the table today, I believe. Phew.

Sold on the morning of 2/10? Wow! Excellent timing. Kudos!

[raja]

Re: My new portfolio balance- Don't mind me, I'm just blathering

Keep in mind that the PM part of your portfolio will not preserve purchasing power.

Buy gold at $1 . . . sell at $5. Your take home is $3.88 after 28% collectibles tax.
If the rise in gold has been commensurate with the drop in the dollar, you've lost 22% of your wealth.

Of course, PM is better than cash . . . .

[pianodoctor]

Re: My new portfolio balance- Don't mind me, I'm just blathering

The bulk of my PMs, and the earliest bought (and thus most profitable) are in a Roth account. The majority of the remainder is in a SEP. A little is in an HSA, and only a small fraction is unsheltered and could possibly be subject to 28%. Also the 28% is, I believe, a maximum cap, not a flat rate. Based on my income, I shouldn't have to pay that much on the small fraction that is in a regular account. So no, I'm not going to pay anything near what you are saying.

[pianodoctor]

Re: My new portfolio balance- Don't mind me, I'm just blathering

Thanks Greg- not that I was 'timing'. Just looking for an opportunity to rebalance before something bad happened and luckily the rally held up long enough that I could, and at a profit. (BTW, I spent 30 years looking at "Biscayne sunrises" myself. And I was living off SW 184th st during hurricane Andrew.)

[raja]

Re: My new portfolio balance- Don't mind me, I'm just blathering

The bulk of my PMs, and the earliest bought (and thus most profitable) are in a Roth account. The majority of the remainder is in a SEP. A little is in an HSA, and only a small fraction is unsheltered and could possibly be subject to 28%. Also the 28% is, I believe, a maximum cap, not a flat rate. Based on my income, I shouldn't have to pay that much on the small fraction that is in a regular account. So no, I'm not going to pay anything near what you are saying.

Perhaps . . . as long as the government doesn't get any bright ideas.