Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

[radon]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

I think you missed the chart. What I was insinuating then was that you had a bubble in everything between 2003-2007, while the bubble in gold started in 2005 and was still ongoing with Chinas revaluation of the RMB ( note that my way of meaning blow up badly meant possibly go very high, not as blow up as in going down, I was comparing gold with the nasdaq in 1998). What I can tell about the Chart is that the liquidity really have not returned to the market. I'm not making money by forecasting the future. I don't know why that's so important as that's not how guys like Warren Buffett makes money. Money is made in my opinion through looking at the here and now, through things like value investing, buying cheap when others are fearful, that sort of stuff. The flow of money, liquidity, what's in a bubble and what's not is quite important in understanding what's going on, where money is flowing and why. I think many economists, simply don't have a idea on the direction of flow of funds, this sort of everyday market experience, and feel for if something is a bubble or not (it's an art not a science) (some economists like Robert Shiller have made progress) .That's just one of the reasons I'm really skeptical on Williams.

I don't understand your post. There was something about how gold would blow up, warren buffet this, liquidity that, buy low sell high, and economists who don't look at capital flows. Who are these mythical economists anyway? It is like a smorgasbord of buzzwords. I read it 4 times and I still have no idea what you are trying to say or how it should apply to shadowstats. The only thing I can see is that you're claiming the chart meant something other than what you said at the time.

[radon]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

may i suggest that radon, thriftyandboringinohio, metalman and others avail themselves of the "ignore" feature available in this forum. i don't check threads when i see that nero3 is the author of the most recent post, but i do check you guys. and then i see you're responding to and mocking nero3. what a waste.

i find it very soothing to have nero3 on "ignore." unfortunately, i still see that he did post, but i'm not provoked into responding to bold assertions offered without data or analysis. how much nicer if i didn't see his posts quoted in replies authored by you guys. don't feed the troll.

I think you are right. I never put people on ignore, but I will refrain from responding when it serves no purpose. I did feel like replying because I didn't want to imply I agreed with him through silence.

[radon]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

ya know ibsen, that sounds like perty good theory....

after wondering why some of the others have been picking on him relentlessly/mercilessly i've reached the conclusion that metalman's 'analysis' (or translations) of his statements is starting to make sense

its too bad its all come down to this, as nero seems like a thoughtful & intelligent person, i just dont understand why he keeps wearing the 'kick me' sticker and keeps responding to and inflaming the instigators who seem to enjoy giving him the thrashing he gets here daily - also dont understand why he keeps coming back for more? tho ya gotta give him some credit for sticking to his guns i spose, its just getting tiresome to wade thru all the useless titfertat and its skewing the signal-to-noise ratio to the detriment of those of us trying to learn something here (even if the entertainment value of metalmans comebacks is priceless ;)

but can we quit pickin on poor nero and just let his comments do the water off the ducks back thing?

there really is more pressing things to type about, doncha tink?

Ridicule is the only weapon which can be used against unintelligible propositions. Ideas must be distinct before reason can act upon them
-Thomas Jefferson

[nero3]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

If you really suffer from paranoid schizophrenia I can see how you would be offended and I apologise for my poor taste.




You realize he uses this analytic ability to reconstruct indexes using historical methods. Maybe you shouldn't trust his data either. Also his conclusions have less to do with "hot potatoes" and everything to do with the US defaulting on its obligations, but I'm not going to put words in his mouth. You can easily go over there and read it yourself. The subscription is cheap for a guy like you.

Actually any mental illness for that matter, is gradual, it's not like you have it or you don't, it's more like a weakness you are born with, that you can be turned into something perhaps fitting some criteria for chemical lobotomia (drugs), given the right enviroment (enough stress for instance). It's not like everyone can get everything. I'll bet gold bugs on average are more prone to having mild paranoia, perhaps even further in that direction, but I would not go as far as using any labels. Anyone who knows anything about these things are actually pretty careful in putting labels on other people.

On the shadowstats. It's interesting to see what he collects of data, but that's it. It's something NRA like about it, maybe even NIA and I don't like it enough to pay for it.

[FRED]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

One thing that certainly bugs me is how the US economy will get the momentum needed if republicans can get their way with the debt. It seems they think not being prudent will bring on the bond vigilantes, but it's the other way around. Through not getting enough revenue and growth into the economy, the bond vigilantes will come through ,meaning those republicans are promoting those policies that will bring exactly what they fear.

This is a point we made here several years ago, as the politics of debt deflation. Fiscal conservatives will argue for austerity policies that ultimately produce the outcome they most fear, by reducing taxable income. Several years later after we made that forecast here we have the shrinking UK economy in Q4 2010 as a proof point. This is not to say that reducing government expenditures is the wrong thing to do, it's just that you can't do it when the economy is "recovering" from a balance sheet recession, that is, trying every trick in the book but the one that is needed, to write off the bubble era debt.

Did you read about that here?

[jiimbergin]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

may i suggest that radon, thriftyandboringinohio, metalman and others avail themselves of the "ignore" feature available in this forum. i don't check threads when i see that nero3 is the author of the most recent post, but i do check you guys. and then i see you're responding to and mocking nero3. what a waste.

i find it very soothing to have nero3 on "ignore." unfortunately, i still see that he did post, but i'm not provoked into responding to bold assertions offered without data or analysis. how much nicer if i didn't see his posts quoted in replies authored by you guys. don't feed the troll.

Yes, I also have nero3 on "ignore" and also I do not open any thread where he is the last poster.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

may i suggest that radon, thriftyandboringinohio, metalman and others avail themselves of the "ignore" feature available in this forum. i don't check threads when i see that nero3 is the author of the most recent post, but i do check you guys. and then i see you're responding to and mocking nero3. what a waste.

i find it very soothing to have nero3 on "ignore." unfortunately, i still see that he did post, but i'm not provoked into responding to bold assertions offered without data or analysis. how much nicer if i didn't see his posts quoted in replies authored by you guys. don't feed the troll.

I have done so.
This is the first time I've ever used the ignore feature, and I've been reading iTulip since back in 1999 when they were giving Flying Pig Awards and offering to license spinning head technology.

[jk]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

I have done so.
This is the first time I've ever used the ignore feature, and I've been reading iTulip since back in 1999 when they were giving Flying Pig Awards and offering to license spinning head technology.

i've never used the ignore feature before, but i've found it quite pleasant in this instance.

[we_are_toast]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

i've never used the ignore feature before, but i've found it quite pleasant in this instance.

I don't have anyone on my ignore list, and probably never will. No one is right 100% of the time, and no one is wrong 100% of the time. ITulip is not that large that it isn't easy to glance through and skip postings you don't want to read thoroughly. Often times, being wrong can be as valuable to the community as being right. If FRED had nero3 on his ignore list, he would not have had the opportunity to post one of his many "you read it here first" postings. It also provides an opportunity to clarify a members stance with a rebuttal to a posting you might disagree with.

$.02

FRED:
Fiscal conservatives will argue for austerity policies that ultimately produce the outcome they most fear, by reducing taxable income. Several years later after we made that forecast here we have the shrinking UK economy in Q4 2010 as a proof point. This is not to say that reducing government expenditures is the wrong thing to do, it's just that you can't do it when the economy is "recovering" from a balance sheet recession...

Sounds very keynesian, good to have you on board FRED.

[dropthatcash]

Re: Fact check!

Not sure where you get your facts but the most "over valued" the market in 1980-82 was a PEAK of P/E 10 and a low of 7.5.

I see you are using a chart that only includes 1/200 th of the stock market. A sampling size so small that while 29 stocks with good earning and one company suffering huge losses will throw the data totally out of whack. You'll note that even from the chart you posted, the quarters pre and post the aberration mirror the broader market and confirm the 7 to 10 PE ration of the period. Anyone foolish enough to use PE ratios for investrent theory would have misses all the great trading oppertunities of the last 20 years or even all of history. PE's are near worthless.