Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

[Mega]

& Silver!

Mega

[Raz]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

Yep, that's it for gold. It's probably going back to its fair value - about $400 Bonars.


Open the pdf BEFORE you listen to the audio.

http://www.howestreet.com/audio/ross..._2011_0125.mp3

If you hear the words "technical analysis" and recoil like a vampire before a cross made of garlic, then this isn't for you. IF, however, you recognize that it's only one tool in the toolbox, and only a highly reliable tool when it fits in with accurate fundamental assumptions, then you'll probably learn something.

And while you might not be happy to watch your PM holdings decline, you'll realize that markets don't go up in a wiggle-free straight line, and you won't be as likely to panic and sell your holdings to the banksters and pit-vermin.

PS. Don't buck EJ; if he says gold is likely to drop BIG-time, then don't place a blind bet that this chartwork is the holy grail of roadmaps.

[nero3]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

The bubble in bubble expectations (among the crowd that experienced the 70's bull-market may be bursting). It would make sense for gold to have a 6 month period where the price doubled and you got into the 2000 plus range, as with oil from this point in the year two years ago). It's not exactly the geopolitical tension, and the inflation in the developed markets as in the late seventies. Today you could see the PG stock plunge due to a bad result due to commodities inflation. I think that was a tail effect. It's probably that's what will be seen as the buying opportunity, when we look back at this 5 years ahead. What makes sense now is that small cap stocks, under perform, gold does poorly, and large caps, especially large cap tech stocks, and retailers does well.

[cobben]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

Sell, Mortimer!!

Log-Periodic Oscillation Analysis and Possible Burst of the "Gold Bubble" in April - June 2011
http://www.unifr.ch/econophysics/pap...w/id/1012.4118

This working paper analyzes the gold price dynamics on the basis of methodology developed by
Didier Sornette. Our calculations indicate that this dynamics is close to the one of the “bubbles”
studied by Sornette and that the most probable timing of the “burst of the gold bubble” is April –
June 2011.

[nero3]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

Sell, Mortimer!!

Log-Periodic Oscillation Analysis and Possible Burst of the "Gold Bubble" in April - June 2011
http://www.unifr.ch/econophysics/pap...w/id/1012.4118

This working paper analyzes the gold price dynamics on the basis of methodology developed by
Didier Sornette. Our calculations indicate that this dynamics is close to the one of the “bubbles”
studied by Sornette and that the most probable timing of the “burst of the gold bubble” is April –
June 2011.

It would be interesting to now if they have a downside target from where the parabolic pattern is broken ( and the bubble prediction is off), because according this kind of logic gold must go parabolic or die.

[GRG55]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

Let's see:

• $1.5 Trillion US deficit;
• 9.8% of GDP;
• gridlock in Congress;
• Unable to borrow individually, the peripheral nations of Europe pray for salvation under the collective borrowing power of the EFSF;
• Trichet, at Davos, says the Euro is a "stable currency and a good store of value";
• Bob Diamond, CEO of Barclays says, at Davos, "the world needs" big ass banks;
• Japan downgraded to the status of a reforming alcoholic [AA];
• "Food fight" riots spreading, and now morphing into "democracy" demonstrations instigated by people who have on their mind anything but democracy;
• S.E. Asia property markets from Sydney to Shanghai pumped up like a condom water balloon at a frat party, with the PBOC waving pins;
• Russian Central Bank plans to buy 100 tons of gold per annum;

Tell me again that gold is finished...

[nero3]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

Let's see:

• $1.5 Trillion US deficit;
• 9.8% of GDP;
• gridlock in Congress;
• Trichet, at Davos, says the Euro is a "stable currency and a good store of value";
• Bob Diamond, CEO of Barclays says, at Davos, "the world needs" big ass banks;
• Japan downgraded to the status of a reforming alcoholic [AA];
• "Food fight" riots spreading, and now morphing into "democracy" demonstrations instigated by people who have on their mind anything but democracy;
• S.E. Asia property markets from Sydney to Shanghai pumped up like a condom water balloon at a frat party, with the PBOC waving pins;
• Russian Central Bank plans to buy 100 tons of gold per annum;

Tell me again that gold is finished...

This is more a matter of going in the right direction (that tomorrow is a bit better than yesterday) (for the US). The property bubbles, food riots (leading to devaluations and rate hikes in emerging economies), japans downgrade, Europe problems, possible problems in eastern Europe, and emerging market's in general others nations outside the US suffering is bullish for the US stock markets and for the dollar. Everyone had a party while the dollar was weak and the bill is coming due.

[Jay]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

It would be interesting to now if they have a downside target from where the parabolic pattern is broken ( and the bubble prediction is off), because according this kind of logic gold must go parabolic or die.

What about golds rise doesn't look parabolic?

[nero3]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

What about golds rise doesn't look parabolic?

I'm asking, at what point is the parabolic trend off relative to other bubbles in the past.

[shiny!]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

Raz, could you please explain what "Upside Exhaustion Alert" and "Downside Capitulation Alert" means in the context of the GSR in the Gold/Silver Ratio chart?

Thanks!

[GRG55]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

This is more a matter of going in the right direction (that tomorrow is a bit better than yesterday) (for the US). The property bubbles, food riots (leading to devaluations and rate hikes in emerging economies), japans downgrade, Europe problems, possible problems in eastern Europe, and emerging market's in general others nations outside the US suffering is bullish for the US stock markets and for the dollar. Everyone had a party while the dollar was weak and the bill is coming due.

I don't doubt that the US Dollar will once again benefit from another flight away from "risk", but I have my doubts that the Dollar and the US stock market will be bullish concurrently. Regardless of the Dollar's performance over the next 6, 12 or 18 months, that nation doesn't appear to have the political will to undertake the structural reforms needed to avoid indefinitely the inevitable outcomes of past and current policies.

[Jay]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

I'm asking, at what point is the parabolic trend off relative to other bubbles in the past.

No you aren't asking, you keep serially crying wolf and have no macroeconomic evidence to back the cries.

[nero3]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

I don't doubt that the US Dollar will once again benefit from another flight away from "risk", but I have my doubts that the Dollar and the US stock market will be bullish concurrently. Regardless of the Dollar's performance over the next 6, 12 or 18 months, that nation doesn't appear to have the political will to undertake the structural reforms needed to avoid indefinitely the inevitable outcomes of past and current policies.

I think the dollar have been in a bull-market since July of 2008, it's much stronger now, than in 2008, at least for me, the dollar was showing this tendency between oil peaked and Lehman as well (no risk trade there) (I think you could have had a situation there with no lehman collapse, bailout instead), and a hiking of interest rates, sort of a double dip scenario, then a recovery in housing based on low long term interest rates) but it did not happen. Recently, stocks and the dollar have even moved in the same bullish trend, while emerging market's have been bearish, gold have moved down relative to stocks, and I think you underestimate the political will in the US to make structural changes, especially if some nation really fall apart it should be enough to scare the US.

[Mega]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

It got killed, got its head ripped off....

[touchring]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

Recently, stocks and the dollar have even moved in the same bullish trend, while emerging market's have been bearish, gold have moved down relative to stocks, and I think you underestimate the political will in the US to make structural changes, especially if some nation really fall apart it should be enough to scare the US.

Yes, but US stocks are not cheap also.