Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

[shiny!]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

I have no doubt that nero3 doesn't believe in what he posts himself. Probably he is here to try to degrade iTulip's forum quality.

I have tried to ignore him using the forum software, but I don't know how to do it. Could someone please tell me which option I should select in order not to see further nero3's messages?

Look at the top of the page when you are logged in and click on "Settings". Then scroll down to where it say "My Settings", click "Edit Ignore List", then add the name(s) of people you want to ignore. Easy peasy.

[nero3]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

I'm sad it got down to this. It's no doubt in my mind that gold and silver is in a bubble, it might even already be in the denial phase following the top, the sentiment here makes me think it could be, even it have room to go further. Some of those talking in these videos, have the same way of speaking as sellers in pyramid schemes. Just look up gold and silver investing on youtube. Try guess the intellectual level of those posting the videos. You can even find investing for beginners in silver. It's like the videos on real estate flipping. See how many hits you get relative to other themes that had been popular before and turned out to be bubbles. In fact it gives even more hits that some older bubbles. The commodity bubble in my opinion is running on it's last legs. The dollar is probably in a bull-market, what's happening in emerging market's are starting to look quite bad and I don't think the treasury bond market will go down with a pop. Had it not been for the inventories, the inventories data US GDP had been growing at around 7 % in the last quarter, however inventories will have to be replaced soon, soon the US economy will be growing above 4 %. California muni bonds are probably a good investment. I read an article comparing Obama to Hoover. That's what they wrote about Reagen in 82. I'm not making this up

[dropthatcash]

Re: Fact check!

It depends on what you compare against. If you compare todays earnings ,with earnings in 2000, when the unemployment was very low, dollar strong, and consumer confidence really high, it can't really be done. There was a point between 1980-1982 the market had a P/E ratio above 40.

A currency chart, long term, between the danish currency and the dollar, give a match in 1978, with 2008, and now it's a match with late 1980 (or around 1994).

The market is relatively high relative to GDP, of course. However in a world of high priced stocks it's not that easy to find opportunities, I think a better opportunity is in a country where the currency is poised to go up. One opportunity is to buy some high quality stocks and ride out the rest of the secular bear-market (if it's still in a secular bear).

Not sure where you get your facts but the most "over valued" the market in 1980-82 was a PEAK of P/E 10 and a low of 7.5.

[jk]

Re: Fact check!

Not sure where you get your facts but the most "over valued" the market in 1980-82 was a PEAK of P/E 10 and a low of 7.5.

why reply to someone who is so consistently so far off in his facts, and refuses to learn? do you know the definition of a fanatic?

A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
-- Winston Churchill

don't feed the troll. use your "ignore" function.

i wouldn't have looked at this thread now if nero3 had been listed as the last to post. but you were listed, so i looked. and you were replying to another total distortion posted by nero3.

i agree with shiny!

IMHO, the quality and civility of this board is declining as thread after thread devolves into long, tiresome, non-productive arguments with a troll.

[metalman]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

I'm sad it got down to this. It's no doubt in my mind that gold and silver is in a bubble, it might even already be in the denial phase following the top, the sentiment here makes me think it could be, even it have room to go further. Some of those talking in these videos, have the same way of speaking as sellers in pyramid schemes. Just look up gold and silver investing on youtube. Try guess the intellectual level of those posting the videos. You can even find investing for beginners in silver. It's like the videos on real estate flipping. See how many hits you get relative to other themes that had been popular before and turned out to be bubbles. In fact it gives even more hits that some older bubbles. The commodity bubble in my opinion is running on it's last legs. The dollar is probably in a bull-market, what's happening in emerging market's are starting to look quite bad and I don't think the treasury bond market will go down with a pop. Had it not been for the inventories, the inventories data US GDP had been growing at around 7 % in the last quarter, however inventories will have to be replaced soon, soon the US economy will be growing above 4 %. California muni bonds are probably a good investment. I read an article comparing Obama to Hoover. That's what they wrote about Reagen in 82. I'm not making this up

sigh... they said that about reagan because volcker pushed the economy into recession on purpose... but to this day the leftys don't believe it.

yes... but you see nero... unsophisticated morons are promoting gold & sivler & if we were idiots with a shallow understanding of bubbles we'd think... 'unsophisticated morons are promoting the item we own... thus it's a bubble'.

but we are not idiots.

if calling a bubble was that easy, even you could have made $$$ shorting the gold 'bubble'.

but since it's not a bubble & gold & silver keeps going up for years & years & years & years & years & years after you said gold was a bubble, you haven't make $$$ shorting it, have you? you've had your ass handed to you, right? or you haven't put your money where your mouth is & it's all so much yap, yap, yap...

i'll respect you if you wear this as an avatar until you get your shit together...

[metalman]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

Really. This debate makes me wonder if the average level here is any better than what you get if you look through the 20-30 first pages you get on youtube searching silver and investing. It's when you see through that kind of material you get embarrassed of any theme thoughts you were having (on gold and silver).

since you're too lazy to educate yourself, let me help you...

1. What Gold Bubble? - Janszen
   
   16 posts - 14 authors - Last post: Oct 13, 2006
   What Gold Bubble? by Eric Janszen October 13, 2006 I figure Friday the 13th is as good a day as any to take on everyone who insists on ...
   www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.../507-What-Gold-Bubble-Janszen - Cached
   
   Get more discussion results
   
   ►
2. iTulip.com - Questioning Fashionable Financial Advice: Gold
   
   Prosects for gold investment when gold is trading at $270 in 2001.
   www.itulip.com/gold.htm - Cached - Similar
   
3. iTulip.com - Gold, DOW and Inflation: Then and Now
   
   Mar 29, 2006 ... Plug in Gillespie's numbers, and the price increases in commodities, including gold, begins to make sense. What doesn't make sense is that ...
   www.itulip.com/gold_dow_inflation.htm - Cached - Similar
   

Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over - Eric Janszen

21 posts - 14 authors - Last post: Jun 18, 2010
Hey don't bag me, all the Elliot Wavers out there, and there is a ton of them see RED FLAGS with gold right now, and I was just pointing ...
www.itulip.com/.../15978-Gold-may-decline-50-before-the-World-Cup-is-over-Eric-Janszen - Cached

1. Lessons of the American Lost Decade – Part 1: The gold bugs were ...
   
   21 posts - 13 authors - Last post: Dec 31, 2009
   http://www.itulip.com/images2/winter...300.jpgLessons of the American Lost Decade – Part I: The gold bugs were rightVictory is sacrifice, ...
   www.itulip.com/.../13706-Lessons-of-the-American-Lost-Decade-%C2%96-Part-1-The-gold-bugs-were-right-Eric-Janszen?... - Cached
   

Now -That – Was a Gold Bubble

15 posts - 7 authors
The goldbug gold market analysts occupy the first hazardous analyst category. ... They exist as a counterpoint to the goldbugs. They dislike gold for what ...
www.itulip.com/.../17285-Now-That-%C2%96-Was-a-Gold-Bubble?... - Cached

[nero3]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

All I can say. Gold started to break out (in non dollar currencies such as mine and AUD) in around 2005. That's when the speculation seemed to take hold, you got fraud companies like cash4gold in 2005, Etf's such as GLD, and it's hugely connected to the revaluation of the RMB that started exactly as the US real estate market peaked. The commodity bubble began already in 2004. I hate to put a exact figure on it. I think the NASDAQ probably became a bubble in around 1995. Some would maybe think the NASDAQ first became a bubble in 1998 or 1999.

on QE2, it have the effect of pushing up inflation in emerging countries, and thus, finishing the dollar carry trades, their growth stories, and their currencies, thus boosting the dollar. It's a wait and see process if this will develop into a bear-market in emerging economies, and a longer bull-market in the US.

[Raz]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

Raz, could you please explain what "Upside Exhaustion Alert" and "Downside Capitulation Alert" means in the context of the GSR in the Gold/Silver Ratio chart?

Thanks!

Sorry for the late reply. shiny!. I'll try.

It is not "cash on the sidelines" or other such nonsense that causes prices to rise, nor is it "cash coming into the market" as Maria Bartepumpo would have you believe, because for every buyer there is a seller - and that cash "leaves" the market.
It is the urgency of the buyers that causes the price to rise as they raise their bids higher and higher.

Ross Clark has developed his own proprietary indicators to measure this urgency, probably combined with an oscillator such as RSI (relative strength index), volume studies (exponentially rising volume reaching a "climactic" level, based upon historical observation) and probably including Open Interest (a measure of participation, ever rising O.I. in a rising market being one sign of urgency among buyers).
Exhaustion is a signal that, based upon these readings and their historical occurence in gold, silver, copper and other markets, a significant high is imminent. The inverse would signal Capitulation, as in a "liquidating market" - falling prices with rising volume and declining Open Interest.

I don't put much stock in the Gold/Silver Ratio, since the historical numbers are skewed by the long periods when one or both were official monetary metals with a set ratio. Ross is one very smart guy, however, a lot smarter than me, and he seems to be looking for signals as to "risk trade". A rising ratio (gold outperforming silver) would seem to indicate trouble for the "risk" trade, since gold is almost exclusively a monetary metal while silver has more industrial applications. A falling ratio (fewer ounces of silver needed to purchase an ounce of gold) would seem to indicate stronger industrial demand and an expansion of the "risk trade".

I'm not certain of this, so if someone else cares to chime in I won't be the least irritated!
(Please, Nero, don't waste your time or mine; you're on my ignore list.)

PS. I'm attaching a file showing the signals given by the software of the only other technician I follow besides Ross. His signals appearing on Treasury Notes in mid-October 2010 have been quite prescient - the T-Notes have fallen about 7 full points ($7,000/contract) as of early January 2011.

[shiny!]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

Thank you very much, Raz. I appreciate your time and patient explanation.

[Ibsen]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

i'll respect you if you wear this as an avatar until you get your shit together...

Hi M. & Others
I've been following the exchange on this tread as well as others with great amusement and come the the following conclusion: Nero3 simpli aspires to match and beat your 6556 posts count .... content is not that important

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Please don't feed the troll.

IMHO, the quality and civility of this board is declining as thread after thread devolves into long, tiresome, non-productive arguments ...

I agree, sadly.

[nero3]

Re: Please don't feed the troll.

I agree, sadly.

I really have a hard time finding a single smart video on youtube promoting gold or silver. I have seen several argumenting against gold and silver.

This guy is certainly smart: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cm2BPmk3ajU , http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7H4kWxF0fA
This guy is smart, but it's just a parody on a silver bug: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WVTKGWkAITU
Here is a smart guy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3uT4O2Z9WPQ

[lektrode]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

Hi M. & Others
I've been following the exchange on this tread as well as others with great amusement and come the the following conclusion: Nero3 simpli aspires to match and beat your 6556 posts count .... content is not that important

ya know ibsen, that sounds like perty good theory....

after wondering why some of the others have been picking on him relentlessly/mercilessly i've reached the conclusion that metalman's 'analysis' (or translations) of his statements is starting to make sense

its too bad its all come down to this, as nero seems like a thoughtful & intelligent person, i just dont understand why he keeps wearing the 'kick me' sticker and keeps responding to and inflaming the instigators who seem to enjoy giving him the thrashing he gets here daily - also dont understand why he keeps coming back for more? tho ya gotta give him some credit for sticking to his guns i spose, its just getting tiresome to wade thru all the useless titfertat and its skewing the signal-to-noise ratio to the detriment of those of us trying to learn something here (even if the entertainment value of metalmans comebacks is priceless ;)

but can we quit pickin on poor nero and just let his comments do the water off the ducks back thing?

there really is more pressing things to type about, doncha tink?

[radon]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

Perhaps a lack of sensitivity in your post, before trying to put the insane label on other board members.

If you really suffer from paranoid schizophrenia I can see how you would be offended and I apologise for my poor taste. However, telling someone to shut up and asserting they are lazy didn't strike me as particularly tactful so naturally I assumed you were not a sensitive person.

I don't trust his analytic ability only his collection of data. His conclusions are to absolute, and lacking in doubt, like if there is no doubt that the dollar will become a very hot potato, fueling hyperinflation in the US (at some point when foreign bond holders loose patience, with the FED monetizing the whole market, thus causing a lack of trust in the dollar and a high money multiplier.) He seems to ignore other dynamics, like fundamentals in China and in foreign countries like my own with bubble currencies.

You realize he uses this analytic ability to reconstruct indexes using historical methods. Maybe you shouldn't trust his data either. Also his conclusions have less to do with "hot potatoes" and everything to do with the US defaulting on its obligations, but I'm not going to put words in his mouth. You can easily go over there and read it yourself. The subscription is cheap for a guy like you.

[radon]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

Hey great idea. A poetry contest. Lets make it Haiku. I'll start:

Nero many words

Gold is bubble he know why

Says so must be true

I have a couple:

a dark pool ripples
wet dollars guide nero's raft
the echo of prayer bells

A springtime for gold
Cramer and nero buy stocks
Animal spirits