Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

[nero3]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

And I bet leverage doesn't exist in your world either.

When one trader, running a 10 USD million hedgefund run a 850 million position, meaning a small fund had 10 % of the paper market. It's amazing.

[doom&gloom]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

When one trader, running a 10 USD million hedgefund run a 850 million position, meaning a small fund had 10 % of the paper market. It's amazing.

all part of the ponzi kleptocracy. and we should be surprised?

[iyamwutiam]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

I wonder if many of these experts are not mired in their own observer bias (being part and parcel of the 'finance' industry). It may not occur to them that projections of the future based on the assumptions that the US dollar/US/G5 and its vast armies will continue to near perpetuity with 'minor' setbacks euphemistically called corrections or market adjustment. If one is imbued with an acceptance of dictums of the supremacy of the western civilization -it is impossible to see a black swan even if it has been standing in front of you.

Essentially as being acknowledged Gold HAS become a currency for nations holding incalculable US debt and it is no coincidence that the devastated nations of South America/ Middle East and South east asia have been decimated by dollar hegemony because essentially they have become importers of inflation and deliverers of tangible assets in return. So the impetus for Gold's value is not tied to mere speculation where we may use 'tools' of the trade. But rather it is a fundamental shift of paradigm away from the US dollar as the 'commodities' currency.
Several agreements in South America/China and Russia were ushered in after the precipitous 2008 meltdown and countries have followed suit by de-linking from the US dollar as much as possible. The mega deals of China with USSR in oil, the Mercosur agreements, and the convertibility of the yuan in many asian nations heralds that world shall no longer be our oyster.

Ultimately -Gold is about doubt in the US and I don't see how the doubt will go away. Despite tremendous manipulation of markets/positions etc. that at the moment lend the US leverage- they can not stop the dribbling of an alternate reality from the damns of dollar excess. The world is marching away from the financial paradigms that US and ultimately G5 has placed upon them. China has done an exceptional job of quietly and seriously disseminating the view and like EF Hutton -peoples and nations are listening.

[flintlock]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

CEF up 4.43% today. Gold finished huh?

[nero3]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

Ultimately -Gold is about doubt in the US and I don't see how the doubt will go away. Despite tremendous manipulation of markets/positions etc. that at the moment lend the US leverage- they can not stop the dribbling of an alternate reality from the damns of dollar excess. The world is marching away from the financial paradigms that US and ultimately G5 has placed upon them. China has done an exceptional job of quietly and seriously disseminating the view and like EF Hutton -peoples and nations are listening.

I notice how it during the start of this recovery was a move in the stock market and gold at the same time, vs weakness in the dollar, while now, after the start of the new year, the dollar is just floating around, and stocks and gold are moving inversely to each other.I think there is trust in the US. If you look at the dollar, it have moved higher relative to other paper currencies since 2008. Had the trust in the US been going lower, the dollar would had been lower now than in 2008, it's not, it's higher. The market have seen a very long bear-market for the US, while other countries have had success fueled by the US weakness. There is a limit to how long this is going to last. The bull-market in doom & gloom is getting stretched.

Looking at China construction is around 60 % of the Economy, consumption around 33 %, export around 5 %, while in the US, you have non residental construction now at around 2,5 %, and residential construction at around 2,2 % a lower level than at any time after 1950.

Who is going to have the boom, and who will have the correction?

[nero3]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

http://www.ifaonline.co.uk/ifaonline...d-bubble-burst

This woman have some interesting thoughts. However, I disagree this is an inverse situation of the early 80's. Back then, you had a commodity bull-market and a weak dollar in the rear-view mirror. Had this been inverse. It had been more like the situation in 2000 when the NASDAQ topped out. However, the bond-market then, got an extension, coupled with a weak dollar commodity bull. My conclusion therefore, would be that the dollar is likely to turn higher, bond's are likely to go down and the sort of 1950's winner stocks (blue-chip stocks and utilities) are likely to outperform. In effect, the market's are moving in circle. Maybe I'm early in calling for a 1950's like bull-market. In a sense the situation now is like before the US would have some sort of war, like WW2, or huge money printing experiment, to devalue the private debt burden, and get new leverage going as after 1950, making this more like 1940, if this is like 1940, then I agree, then the situation is truly inverse.

[jpetr48]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

I think there is trust in the US. If you look at the dollar, it have moved higher relative to other paper currencies since 2008. Had the trust in the US been going lower, the dollar would had been lower now than in 2008, it's not, it's higher.

The relative strength charts of the dollar to the yen, canadian dollar, australian dollar are all weak. The only currency that we have outperformed on and off since 2008 is the Euro. Alasdair Macleod gives a commentary on the dominos ready to fall there at http://www.financeandeconomics.org/A...%20banking.htm
The FT yesterday printed Germany price surge threatens eurozone inflation target
There has been more printed and communicated about countries moving away from the dollar

Agreed that China is headed for troubled waters as some have noted on itulip recently with the potential liquidity problem there.

Is the bull market in doom and gloom getting stretched or are we in denial?
Here's John Williams (shadowgovernment publisher) take on most recent GDP
"GDP Estimate Was of Unusually Poor Quality. This morning's "advance" estimate of annualized 3.17% real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth was nonsensical, even though it was somewhat shy of consensus. Most of the reporting was based on guesses; hard data simply are not available this early."

Moving to a TECI economy will take years. Until then we will continue to kick the can down the road until the necessary restructuring is completed.




Until we can get to the TECI

[nero3]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

The relative strength charts of the dollar to the yen, canadian dollar, australian dollar are all weak. The only currency that we have outperformed on and off since 2008 is the Euro. Alasdair Macleod gives a commentary on the dominos ready to fall there at http://www.financeandeconomics.org/A...%20banking.htm
The FT yesterday printed Germany price surge threatens eurozone inflation target
There has been more printed and communicated about countries moving away from the dollar

Agreed that China is headed for troubled waters as some have noted on itulip recently with the potential liquidity problem there.

Is the bull market in doom and gloom getting stretched or are we in denial?
Here's John Williams (shadowgovernment publisher) take on most recent GDP
"GDP Estimate Was of Unusually Poor Quality. This morning's "advance" estimate of annualized 3.17% real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth was nonsensical, even though it was somewhat shy of consensus. Most of the reporting was based on guesses; hard data simply are not available this early."

Moving to a TECI economy will take years. Until then we will continue to kick the can down the road until the necessary restructuring is completed.




Until we can get to the TECI

I don't trust Williams, I think he is sort of a lunatic (Use my dryer post in the rant and rave forum, and then calculate how much a new dryer or refrigerator costs now, relative to in 1973 using his statistics). He is in the category with Ron Paul and others who is sort of political on the gold standard (see the gold bug category). I don't trust Ron Paul for that matter. I get that paranoid feel from both of them). And I'm quick to pick it up when people are sending those vibes, takes maybe 3 seconds. I'm not dismissing his work on statistics, but I don't trust him for anything else than simply collecting data.

A interesting thing is the situation in Japan. Japan is at a point in their cycle that's like the US in 1951. They could get a kick from an increase in private debt levels, booming stock market, etc as investments are shifted from bonds. The US is in a sense 10 years after Japan, but I wonder in what case the inflationary policies in the US have made the US catch up with Japan.

[jpetr48]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

Before you say you don't trust him, check his archives. Guys like EJ, Hussman and Williams allow you to look behind the curtain and see if what they say is real.

[nero3]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

Before you say you don't trust him, check his archives. Guys like EJ, Hussman and Williams allow you to look behind the curtain and see if what they say is real.

ok

[cjppjc]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

I get that paranoid feel from both of them). And I'm quick to pick it up when people are sending those vibes, takes maybe 3 seconds.

This is a great tool to have, I would be curious, were you born with this or aquired it later in life?

[shiny!]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

EJ and Fred: thank you so much.

Whither silver in all this?

[nero3]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

This is a great tool to have, I would be curious, were you born with this or aquired it later in life?

First impressions is something I guess everyone have, and it's more about body language, tone of voice, etc than what's actually being said. I do have an interest in psychology as well as investing. Let me rephrase myself, on Williams and Paul. They are pessimistic watchdogs (they probably think of themselves as realists). When observing what someone is saying (David Tice) comes to mind as someone not as the two above even he is negative as well (I put him the realist, not goldbug category as with Williams and Paul), with him it's more in the direction of depressive. I think taking the personality of the forecaster into the whole picture is worth doing when actually evaluation what they are saying.

[metalman]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

First impressions is something I guess everyone have, and it's more about body language, tone of voice, etc than what's actually being said. I do have an interest in psychology as well as investing. Let me rephrase myself, on Williams and Paul. They are pessimistic watchdogs (they probably think of themselves as realists). When observing what someone is saying (David Tice) comes to mind as someone not as the two above even he is negative as well (I put him the realist, not goldbug category as with Williams and Paul), with him it's more in the direction of depressive. I think taking the personality of the forecaster into the whole picture is worth doing when actually evaluation what they are saying.

i have many thoughts & feelings about this & that.

sometimes i feel this way & others that way.

some people are depressive & others are optimistic.

i have no theory or data or track record or anything... but i do have a laconic & repetitive style.

i say the same thing over & over... & then something else over & over & then i take the other side.

it's all interesting to me.

it's about body language & tone of voice.

in this i am consistent, but in no other way.

i call gold a bubble as others have done for years & years & years & years & years & years & years & years & years & they have been wrong.

we will be right soon, i think.

i feel it.

it's in my gut.

i can smell it, too.

[nero3]

Re: Well, that just about wraps it up for GOLD!............

i have many thoughts & feelings about this & that.

Shut up, work harder and shop more so I can get my return on my investments. At least you are back.