iTulip Forums

[Chris]

I just wanted to "put something out there".

I'm finding that the return on time invested in the iTulip forums increasingly diminishing. The proliferation of posts of the format [copy of news article, link] is becoming increasingly difficult to relate to. If these articles were accompanied with at least a paragraph of text with the poster's view on why the arcticle has been submitted, it's relationship to economy or iTulip's position on the economy, something (anything), that would help a little.

Anyone else have an opinion on this?

[chr5648]

Re: iTulip Forums

I just wanted to "put something out there".

I'm finding that the return on time invested in the iTulip forums increasingly diminishing. The proliferation of posts of the format [copy of news article, link] is becoming increasingly difficult to relate to. If these articles were accompanied with at least a paragraph of text with the poster's view on why the arcticle has been submitted, it's relationship to economy or iTulip's position on the economy, something (anything), that would help a little.

Anyone else have an opinion on this?

I agree with all your points, there used to be better discourse here.

[Spartacus]

Re: iTulip Forums

Eric once wrote a post about the long periods of downtime where there's not a huge amount of events, theories, etc ... to discuss.

iTulip's investment thesis (very low churn, long holding periods) just accentuates this.

It's just something to expect occasionally, like people whose interests diverge (or are forcibly diverged for them by FRED) & they move on to pastures that are greener for them. Par for the course.

I just wanted to "put something out there".

I'm finding that the return on time invested in the iTulip forums increasingly diminishing. The proliferation of posts of the format [copy of news article, link] is becoming increasingly difficult to relate to. If these articles were accompanied with at least a paragraph of text with the poster's view on why the arcticle has been submitted, it's relationship to economy or iTulip's position on the economy, something (anything), that would help a little.

Anyone else have an opinion on this?

[FRED]

Re: iTulip Forums

Eric once wrote a post about the long periods of downtime where there's not a huge amount of events, theories, etc ... to discuss.

iTulip's investment thesis (very low churn, long holding periods) just accentuates this.

It's just something to expect occasionally, like people whose interests diverge (or are forcibly diverged for them by FRED) & they move on to pastures that are greener for them. Par for the course.

Good observation. We are in another one of those periods right now where a lot of policy missiles have been fired into the air and while they are in the air months and months of intense debate have taken place about where they are all going to land. There is not much new to say about where they might land, but a lot of effort expended to fill the anxiety-filled period of waiting while they course through the sky.

We all know where they will land but for 99.9% out there it's a great mystery. Many still think deflation is a possibility. Others believe hyperinflation is coming. The more likely outcome is far less dramatic doesn't drive a lot of site traffic. It's like predicting rust.

And that's a fair description of what's going to happen to us as we remain on the FIRE Economy recovery path. Our economy will rust. The economist's term for it is stagflation.

[LargoWinch]

Re: iTulip Forums

Others believe hyperinflation is coming.

FRED, but Mr. Williams should know better no?

Perhaps EJ or member bart, could talk to him and even arrange for a debate?


It just seems to me that even the very good guys [ex: Mr. Williams] are getting carried away by these albeit extraordinary events and in the process damage a painfully and well-earned reputation.

[LargoWinch]

Re: iTulip Forums

Anyone else have an opinion on this?

Chris, it appears to me that in late 2008 and early 2009, the web was on "fire" (no pun intended) about FIRE collapsing.

Now, all seems fine and it is back to normal for a lot of people watching the Dow above 10,000. However, it is anything but.

Think of this as the eye of the storm and a time to challenge yourself and other members about what to do when the next phase begins.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: iTulip Forums

It just seems to me that even the very good guys [ex: Mr. Williams] are getting carried away by these albeit extraordinary events and in the process damage a painfully and well-earned reputation.

I used to have a tactic that I used when I had to take over the management of a group of software engineers, if I was not closely familiar with what they were working on (what they were actually working on, with some interest, perhaps as opposed to what some scheduling document claimed.)

I'd present some rather vague customer complaint of a specific problem, with a couple of confusing and contradictory details, and with some urgency to figure out what was going wrong with our software.

Then I'd listen to each engineer explain why it must be this or that part of our system that was misbehaving.

The engineer who best knew the frobitz would figure it was a problem with the frobitz.
The engineer who best knew the widget would figure it was a problem with the widget.
The engineer who best knew the blimpx would figure it was a problem with the blimpx.

And so forth.

I quickly learned whom to ask for information on the frobitz, widget or blimpx (and that no one had a clue about the aardley ;).

We are now crashing the most complex economic, political, cultural system ever built by humans into a rather larger rock (gold, tungsten, ...?)

The manner of the upcoming failures is likely beyond the ability of most of us to accurately predict.

But you can guess in what areas a given commentator is most expert, by the nature of what they predict will fail.

[jk]

Re: iTulip Forums

I used to have a tactic that I used when I had to take over the management of a group of software engineers, if I was not closely familiar with what they were working on (what they were actually working on, with some interest, perhaps as opposed to what some scheduling document claimed.)

I'd present some rather vague customer complaint of a specific problem, with a couple of confusing and contradictory details, and with some urgency to figure out what was going wrong with our software.

Then I'd listen to each engineer explain why it must be this or that part of our system that was misbehaving.

The engineer who best knew the frobitz would figure it was a problem with the frobitz.
The engineer who best knew the widget would figure it was a problem with the widget.
The engineer who best knew the blimpx would figure it was a problem with the blimpx.

And so forth.

I quickly learned whom to ask for information on the frobitz, widget or blimpx (and that no one had a clue about the aardley ;).

We are now crashing the most complex economic, political, cultural system ever built by humans into a rather larger rock (gold, tungsten, ...?)

The manner of the upcoming failures is likely beyond the ability of most of us to accurately predict.

But you can guess in what areas a given commentator is most expert, by the nature of what they predict will fail.

that's an interesting observation, cow. can you tell us what you've noticed in this regard about the focus of various commentators and contributers here and elsewhere?

[flintlock]

Re: iTulip Forums

I've held off for months saying what I've long thought, that the quality of postings on Itulip has declined. It takes longer and longer to wade through all the political idealism and ramblings to actually find something of value. Links often lead to long drawn out articles, many of which are dead ends with no relation to economics. I agree with the OP that a short excerpt posted with the link might save time. Not all of us have the time to wade through the morass.

Some of the postings to "News" would better be posted to "Rant and Rave". A lot of the political ideology debates and so forth that, while interesting, don't really fit the definition of news, especially economic news. Itulip risks becoming just another forum where the same 10 people hash out the same debate over and over.

I have noticed the forum has become a bit more polite lately, where people who disagree do so in a more courteous manner. So that's a positive. It encourages more postings from new members.

I'd just like for Itulip to go back to being a forum that I could feel comfortable referring friends and family to.

[jk]

Re: iTulip Forums

i found itulip in the spring of '06. from 06 through 07 it was an exciting place for vigorous discussion and debate as we dissected inflation vs deflation, infrastructure investment as a politically feasible intervention, peak [cheap] oil and other basic issues. there's been a lot of rehashing since, but - for me at least- the basic itulip positions were hashed out then, several years ago. since that time, the most stimulating things on the site have been eric's analyses tracking and filling in details of the basic projections that were made then. i do not read many/most of the threads, and i post much less frequently than in those years.

i think the changes ej said he'd be implementing soon - frequent short comments on current data, bi-monthly [is that twice a month, or every 2 months?] long analytic pieces, will make the site more vigorous again.

[Spartacus]

Re: iTulip Forums

There have been iTulip theses that dropped off

I don't have a catalog but the idea of Euro money coming in to rescue Florida real estate is one example that sticks in my mind.

Discussion of alt-energy has dropped off, but it has dropped off across the internet, as far as I can see.

This kind of ebb and flow, lull and torrent, has happened before, it's just something to expect.

i found itulip in the spring of '06. from 06 through 07 it was an exciting place for vigorous discussion and debate as we dissected inflation vs deflation, infrastructure investment as a politically feasible intervention, peak [cheap] oil and other basic issues. there's been a lot of rehashing since, but - for me at least- the basic itulip positions were hashed out then, several years ago. since that time, the most stimulating things on the site have been eric's analyses tracking and filling in details of the basic projections that were made then. i do not read many/most of the threads, and i post much less frequently than in those years.

i think the changes ej said he'd be implementing soon - frequent short comments on current data, bi-monthly [is that twice a month, or every 2 months?] long analytic pieces, will make the site more vigorous again.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: iTulip Forums

that's an interesting observation, cow. can you tell us what you've noticed in this regard about the focus of various commentators and contributers here and elsewhere?

Ah - I guess I left that part out, didn't I. Sorry.

I was thinking of Mr's Janszen and Williams when I wrote that. They are very good at what they do. You can indeed tell what is their expertise by where their analysis focuses. The risk, as for all of us, is that we're looking under the street lamp for our keys, because that's where the "light" of our expertise shines brightest. If our keys lay elsewhere, they will not be found.

See my controversial remarks of the last day on the Thoughts on Hyperinflation thread for where I think human civilization has lost its keys this time. Look for my "red shield" post.

This is perhaps why I left my above post on this thread disconnected. My thoughts are heretical and disconcerting. So I sometimes speak reluctantly and incompletely. As much as the truth is important, so it is important to establish community of well intentioned individuals and to foster the hope that leads to energetic efforts to improve our future.

[jpatter666]

Re: iTulip Forums

i found itulip in the spring of '06. from 06 through 07 it was an exciting place for vigorous discussion and debate as we dissected inflation vs deflation, infrastructure investment as a politically feasible intervention, peak [cheap] oil and other basic issues. there's been a lot of rehashing since, but - for me at least- the basic itulip positions were hashed out then, several years ago. since that time, the most stimulating things on the site have been eric's analyses tracking and filling in details of the basic projections that were made then. i do not read many/most of the threads, and i post much less frequently than in those years.

i think the changes ej said he'd be implementing soon - frequent short comments on current data, bi-monthly [is that twice a month, or every 2 months?] long analytic pieces, will make the site more vigorous again.

iTulip was an exciting place to be 2007-early 2009. In early 2009 two things happened:
1 ) There was an inordinate amount of infighting between members IMO as to what was going to happen next and where things were going to go. Some members (many of whom have been proven correct IMO for claiming the market was going to roar back up) left and I have not seen them since (although they may lurk).
2 ) More importantly, EJ got sucked into the morass of writing his book and planning for the next stage (now right around the corner). With the site lacking EJ's (and FREDs) more active participation and guidance (and new ideas!) IMO we went down some side-alleys. Hopefully that is imminently at an end.

[LargoWinch]

Re: iTulip Forums

I used to have a tactic that I used when I had to take over the management of a group of software engineers, if I was not closely familiar with what they were working on (what they were actually working on, with some interest, perhaps as opposed to what some scheduling document claimed.)

I'd present some rather vague customer complaint of a specific problem, with a couple of confusing and contradictory details, and with some urgency to figure out what was going wrong with our software.

Then I'd listen to each engineer explain why it must be this or that part of our system that was misbehaving.

The engineer who best knew the frobitz would figure it was a problem with the frobitz.
The engineer who best knew the widget would figure it was a problem with the widget.
The engineer who best knew the blimpx would figure it was a problem with the blimpx.

And so forth.

I quickly learned whom to ask for information on the frobitz, widget or blimpx (and that no one had a clue about the aardley ;).

We are now crashing the most complex economic, political, cultural system ever built by humans into a rather larger rock (gold, tungsten, ...?)

The manner of the upcoming failures is likely beyond the ability of most of us to accurately predict.

But you can guess in what areas a given commentator is most expert, by the nature of what they predict will fail.

TPC, this is hands down the best post I have read this month. Good stuff.