Third World Superpower?

[touchring]

As intriguing as it sounds, but this is what is going to happen within the next 10-15 years. Minus a few years if Obama is still the next president.

[jpatter666]

Re: Third World Superpower?

As intriguing as it sounds, but this is what is going to happen within the next 10-15 years. Minus a few years if Obama is still the next president.

So basically you are saying the US will follow the Russian path -- 3rd world country, 1st world military/nukes (eventually degrading to 3rd world military -- maybe even 3rd world nukes [remember the Kiev]).

[touchring]

Re: Third World Superpower?

So basically you are saying the US will follow the Russian path -- 3rd world country, 1st world military/nukes (eventually degrading to 3rd world military -- maybe even 3rd world nukes [remember the Kiev]).

Well, you can interpret it two ways.

China becomes the economic superpower and possibly a budding military superpower as well, but is still third world with wealthy cities but poor majority countryside.

Or, China progresses exponentially and the US regresses to third world economy with a superpower military.

Either way, there will be a third world superpower.

[c1ue]

Re: Third World Superpower?

Well, you can interpret it two ways.

China becomes the economic superpower and possibly a budding military superpower as well, but is still third world with wealthy cities but poor majority countryside.

Or, China progresses exponentially and the US regresses to third world economy with a superpower military.

Either way, there will be a third world superpower.

Or, China grows but then declines when their massive real estate, stock market, and other bubbles collapse.

There are far better candidates for leading powers in the multilateral world to come - China is handicapped by massive reliance on imports of key commodities including energy, food, and strategic minerals.

Consider this: in a world where trade falls 50%, where does that leave China?

The possible reasons for this trade reduction are many: carbon taxation, import barriers/protectionism, collapse of international credit, global economic depression, US dollar/Euro devaluation, commodity nationalization. No doubt there are a few possibilities.

Brazil and Russia, in contrast, don't have any of these issues - they are not dependent on trade or are trading commodities which are thus far irreplaceable and are almost entirely self sufficient in all inputs.

But no matter who or what - it won't be a superpower in the Cold War sense or in the present US superpower sense. The mechanism for world subsidies towards a single country are fading fast...

[touchring]

Re: Third World Superpower?

Or, China grows but then declines when their massive real estate, stock market, and other bubbles collapse.

There are far better candidates for leading powers in the multilateral world to come - China is handicapped by massive reliance on imports of key commodities including energy, food, and strategic minerals.

Consider this: in a world where trade falls 50%, where does that leave China?

The possible reasons for this trade reduction are many: carbon taxation, import barriers/protectionism, collapse of international credit, global economic depression, US dollar/Euro devaluation, commodity nationalization. No doubt there are a few possibilities.

Brazil and Russia, in contrast, don't have any of these issues - they are not dependent on trade or are trading commodities which are thus far irreplaceable and are almost entirely self sufficient in all inputs.

But no matter who or what - it won't be a superpower in the Cold War sense or in the present US superpower sense. The mechanism for world subsidies towards a single country are fading fast...

China's clot is growing by the day, Wall Street makes the most money out of China by importing goods from China at low cost, and then selling to Americans, so I don't see how there will be import barriers that cause trade to fall 50% when even the President of the USA works for China.

I don't see Russia or Brazil able to beat China by any measure either.

[c1ue]

Re: Third World Superpower?

China's clot is growing by the day, Wall Street makes the most money out of China by importing goods from China at low cost, and then selling to Americans, so I don't see how there will be import barriers that cause trade to fall 50% when even the President of the USA works for China.

I don't see Russia or Brazil able to beat China by any measure either.

Your faith is touching, but is not helpful when it blinds you to reality.

China's trade to the US will continue to grow so long as China is willing to accept pieces of paper for its labor.

Said pieces of paper will be accepted only so long as they can be used to obtain the above mentioned inputs which China needs - not only to create its exports, but to build out its internal infrastructure and hopefully also raise the standard of living across the entire mass of China's population.

As the progenitor of these pieces of paper continue to emit them at record rates - it is unquestionable that the willingness of others to accept said pieces of paper is going to reduce.

Thus the reality which you cannot seem to even consider is that China is tied to the US and cannot get off the ride. The rest of the world is starting to.

Once the divide becomes unavoidabe, the trade barriers will go up.

At that point how will China get the energy it needs?

The soy for tofu and animal feed?

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...ntine-row.html

Purchases in the first six months climbed 17 percent to 25.8 million tons, customs said.

The iron - a large chunk of which is for internal use in building infrastructure?

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...-update2-.html

Imports dropped 9 percent to 47.2 million metric tons in June from 51.9 million tons in May, according to data provided by the General Administration of Customs today. Imports fell 15 percent from 55.3 million tons a year earlier.

Energy? Oil for the millions of cars being bought? Coal for the electricity used in homes and appliances?

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/China/Background.html

Despite the economic slowdown in exports and domestic demand in the past year, China’s demand for energy remains high. China has emerged from being a net oil exporter in the early 1990s to become the world’s third-largest net importer of oil in 2006. Natural gas usage in China has also increased rapidly in recent years, and China has looked to raise natural gas imports via pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG). China is also the world’s largest producer and consumer of coal, an important factor in world energy markets.

Coal supplied the vast majority (70 percent) of China’s total energy consumption requirements in 2006. Oil is the second-largest source, accounting for 20 percent of the country’s total energy consumption. While China has made an effort to diversify its energy supplies, hydroelectric sources (6 percent), natural gas (3 percent), and nuclear power (1 percent) account for relatively small amounts of China’s energy consumption mix.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/China/Oil.html

China consumed an estimated 7.8 million barrels per day (bbl/d) of oil in 2008, making it the second-largest oil consumer in the world behind the United States. During that same year, China produced an estimated 4.0 million bbl/d of total oil liquids, of which 96 percent was crude oil. China’s net oil imports were approximately 3.9 million bbl/d in 2008, making it the third-largest net oil importer in the world behind the United States and Japan. EIA forecasts that China’s oil consumption will continue to grow during 2009 and 2010, with oil demand reaching 8.2 million bbl/d in 2010.

7.8M barrels per day @ $80/barrel = $227B/year = 2.86% of per capita income

In comparison, the comparable figure for the US is 2.2% of per capita income

For Brazil the figure is 0.95%

For Russia - net oil exporter

The list goes on and on.

[Ghent12]

Re: Third World Superpower?

How does China's population crisis come into play? Will there even be one? They have been suffering from the 1-2-4 problem for a while now; will things only get better as their older population increasingly dies off?

[touchring]

Re: Third World Superpower?

How does China's population crisis come into play? Will there even be one? They have been suffering from the 1-2-4 problem for a while now; will things only get better as their older population increasingly dies off?

What would you expect from a single party communist system that answers to no one but themselves and their pockets? They can introduce some disease to kill off most of the old people in the countryside if they are too much of a burden.

Take note, I said third world superpower, when was the last time the world had a third world superpower? 1930s Germany?

[c1ue]

Re: Third World Superpower?

What would you expect from a single party communist system that answers to no one but themselves and their pockets? They can introduce some disease to kill off most of the old people in the countryside if they are too much of a burden.

This is what is termed a 'magical' solution. Unfortunately you missed the entire point which Ghent12 was getting at: that is the present generation staffing the Foxconns in China has significantly smaller preceding and following generations.

A 'selective' old age disease in say 30 years would leave China with a significantly smaller population almost instantaneously.

All the radical Greens of the world will cheer, but I doubt anyone in China would.

Take note, I said third world superpower, when was the last time the world had a third world superpower? 1930s Germany?

Even your statement - Third World Superpower - is an oxymoron.

If a nation is so poor as to be Third World, clearly it cannot be a superpower.

China - even today - is no longer Third World. Neither is Brazil or Russia. India is somewhat debatable given its huge swathes of subsistence farmers, but can be given the benefit of the doubt.

[touchring]

Re: Third World Superpower?

Even your statement - Third World Superpower - is an oxymoron.

If a nation is so poor as to be Third World, clearly it cannot be a superpower.

China - even today - is no longer Third World. Neither is Brazil or Russia. India is somewhat debatable given its huge swathes of subsistence farmers, but can be given the benefit of the doubt.

When I mean Third World, I mean the stage of national development on a per capita, not just economics but also politics and social.

With an extremely large population, you can be an economic or military superpower but still third world.

There are already quite a few states around with first world economies but third world political and social systems (still Third World on the whole), so this is not impossible. China is moving towards that direction, I'm quite sure of it.

[c1ue]

Re: Third World Superpower?

When I mean Third World, I mean the stage of national development on a per capita, not just economics but also politics and social.

With an extremely large population, you can be an economic or military superpower but still third world.

There are already quite a few states around with first world economies but third world political and social systems (still Third World on the whole), so this is not impossible. China is moving towards that direction, I'm quite sure of it.

Uh, still unclear what you are trying to say.

China's per capita income is $6000 - this is much higher than true 3rd world nations.

According to the UN, China is at the high end of the developing world:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_World

World map indicating a Human Development Index (2009 Update)

Developed 0.950 and Over 0.900–0.949 0.850–0.899 0.800–0.849

Developing 0.750–0.799 0.700–0.749 0.650–0.699 0.600–0.649 0.550–0.599 0.500–0.549

Under-developed 0.450–0.499 0.400–0.449 0.350–0.399 under 0.350 not available

Furthermore as the largest remaining 'Communist' political entity, this is strictly speaking 2nd world.

[touchring]

Re: Third World Superpower?

Do you mean PPP? Actually, I think China's nominal GDP is at least $5000.

China's per capita GDP is understated by at least 50% if you include the underground economy and under reporting. Chinese statistics has always been scaled down to avoid stirring trade conflicts. The same with population, I believe that the real population in China is closer to 1.5 billion people than the official 1.3.

Uh, still unclear what you are trying to say.

China's per capita income is $6000 - this is much higher than true 3rd world nations.

According to the UN, China is at the high end of the developing world:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_World



Furthermore as the largest remaining 'Communist' political entity, this is strictly speaking 2nd world.