An Itulip prediction that didn't come true

[chr5648]

As I was looking through the archives of the old Itulip site I came across this from May 22, 2000:

http://www.itulip.com/urgentmessage.htm#beginning (scroll down a bit)

A number of social changes will accompany the market decline. I'll spare you the dark prophesies. Here are a few lighter ones.

Gambling "get rich quick" culture will be replaced by a moralistic "labor for money" ethos
State run lotteries and private casinos will close
Public fascination with wealth creation will diminish and contempt for the wealthy will rise
Faith in free markets and open trade will be replaced by support for government intervention in markets and for new tariffs
Tolerance for behavior outside societal norms will decline
Clothing fashion and media programming will become more conservative

I believe every single one of these can be deemed false, from 2000-2010 its pretty much been the opposite of the predictions. It depends on your subjective view.

[aaron]

Re: An Itulip prediction that didn't come true

I do believe EJ did not expect the housing bubble. It kind of pushed those items out into the (then) future. They are starting now, in my opinion.

[World Traveler]

Re: An Itulip prediction that didn't come true

Certainly, numbers 3 and 4 are starting to play out.

"Public fascination with wealth creation will diminish and contempt for the wealthy will rise
Faith in free markets and open trade will be replaced by support for government intervention in markets and for new tariffs"

[Jay]

Re: An Itulip prediction that didn't come true

I do believe EJ did not expect the housing bubble. It kind of pushed those items out into the (then) future. They are starting now, in my opinion.

If we in fact do get high levels of inflation I would expect gambling culture to greatly increase. Successful speculation is the only way to stay ahead in those conditions.

[jpatter666]

Re: An Itulip prediction that didn't come true

You saw elements of all of these IMO start to play out in early 2009 (even the casinos as I recall seeing many articles as to how bad things were and MGM *did* come within a hair of defaulting). Then after the Great Reflation (sarcasm), the wave receded.

[Rajiv]

Re: An Itulip prediction that didn't come true

If we in fact do get high levels of inflation I would expect gambling culture to greatly increase. Successful speculation is the only way to stay ahead in those conditions.

I believe you may be mistaken on that. Under conditions of extreme inflation, people rely on barter, and not on speculation. Basically, money loses all value, and we then revert to an economy, where only goods and services are exchanged. This will inevitably result in a slowing of the economy. Nobody wants to play "Toss the hot potato around" with an item that has an uncertain value.

Barter, and the "Soup Kitchen"

[flintlock]

Re: An Itulip prediction that didn't come true

Give it time. Some will play out.