High chance that China may become the world's largest economy in less than a decade?

[touchring]

Re: High chance that China may become the world's largest economy in less than a decade?

Good software architects take many years (a decade or two) to achieve their potential, just as with any other technical discipline. There is a more than ample supply of junior coders and web hackers already in the world, so how fast we can train more of those matters little, except in a few specific cases where some relatively new major product line from a major vendor such as Cisco or Microsoft requires some more trained technicians.

Yes, I agree, but to replace the programmers doing web based applications in India is a way easier task than creating the Apple, Google or Cisco type of software architects. And besides the cost may not actually be very much higher if you factor in the management overheads of an offshore office. For the unemployed, even a $20k p.a. job typing on PC or doing software testing is better than working on the factory floors.

[touchring]

Re: High chance that China may become the world's largest economy in less than a decade?

We cannot just move a million jobs from here to there smoothly. It may take another World War or Great Depression to accomplish that.

You'll be surprised how quickly you can move a million jobs. Singapore added a million jobs - population increased by 25% from 4 million to 5 million in less than 7 years, 150k a year. This is on a 400 sq mile land.

On the scale of the US, it will be like adding 12 million jobs a year, NET.

The world is interconnected as you said and is becoming a very mobile place.

[c1ue]

Re: High chance that China may become the world's largest economy in less than a decade?

1 million increase in population is not equivalent to adding 1 million jobs.

The US has 300 million people, and about 115 million jobs.

As for Singapore - there are huge differences between a city-state and a nation - doubly so for a financial center.

Hong Kong increased its population by 50% after the Communist takeover of the mainland - do you think the jobs available also increased 50%?

Year	Total	Victoria	Other Hong Kong Island	Kowloon Peninsula	New Kowloon	New Territories	Marine
1999	6,840,600	1,119,700	287,900	621,200	1,502,900	3,294,800	14,100
1991	5,647,114	963,389	287,604		2,030,683	2,347,818	17,620
1986	5,395,997	925,000	250,860	774,781	1,526,910	1,881,166	37,280
1981	4,986,560	954,678	228,943	799,123	1,649,950	1,304,119	49,747
1976	4,439,250
1971	3,950,000
1961	3,133,131
1951	2,013,000
1947	1,750,000
1945	750,000
1941	1,600,000
1931	864,117