It seems more likely that the Republicans will take over congress in Nov. The question is, how do we invest for such a change? Will it change any of your investment allocations? Should it?
The day after the elections of 2004 (long before I discovered iTulip), I went from 0% gold, to 50% gold. Elections have economic consequences!
I know it's very early to be considering this, but I would hate to be scrambling a few days before the election to figure out how to reallocate.
Here's what I believe would be the results of a Republican takeover of both the house and the senate, but mostly the senate;
Complete and total gridlock. Few if any judges getting appointed, absolutely no economic reforms getting introduced, no senate hearings of the problems that led to the economic crises, anti regulatory legislation passed and vetoed, Tax cut legislation passed and vetoed, no more stimulus or jobs programs, possible filibuster of attempts to raise debt ceiling, a complete lack of ability to handle any new crises... and a complete loss of trust, by the public, that the government can accomplish anything. Welcome to government, California style.
My initial feeling is that the paralysis will lead to a deflationary (not disinflation) environment. If the timing coincides with a China bust, this could be the mother of all black Swans. Short commodities, short gold, short everything?
I don't want to get into a pissing contest of who's better, Dems or Repubs, I just want to know what your honest feelings of what will happen to the economy if the Repubs take over and if you'll reallocate.
The day after the elections of 2004 (long before I discovered iTulip), I went from 0% gold, to 50% gold. Elections have economic consequences!
I know it's very early to be considering this, but I would hate to be scrambling a few days before the election to figure out how to reallocate.
Here's what I believe would be the results of a Republican takeover of both the house and the senate, but mostly the senate;
Complete and total gridlock. Few if any judges getting appointed, absolutely no economic reforms getting introduced, no senate hearings of the problems that led to the economic crises, anti regulatory legislation passed and vetoed, Tax cut legislation passed and vetoed, no more stimulus or jobs programs, possible filibuster of attempts to raise debt ceiling, a complete lack of ability to handle any new crises... and a complete loss of trust, by the public, that the government can accomplish anything. Welcome to government, California style.
My initial feeling is that the paralysis will lead to a deflationary (not disinflation) environment. If the timing coincides with a China bust, this could be the mother of all black Swans. Short commodities, short gold, short everything?
I don't want to get into a pissing contest of who's better, Dems or Repubs, I just want to know what your honest feelings of what will happen to the economy if the Repubs take over and if you'll reallocate.
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