In 15 years China won't need any EU or US or Japanese imports, what will happen then?

[touchring]

With the amount of reverse engineering going on, I would say that within 15 years or less, China will be making their own jumbo jets, their own high speed trains, their own luxury cars, their own elevators, industrial machinery, nuclear power plants, turbines, and even their own operating system - or everything will be web based by then, so Linux is good enough.

And they will be making it cheaper than everyone else because of the abundance of labor.

How will Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations theory work out when one single country makes practically everything, at a similar quality and cheaper than everyone else.

[jk]

Re: In 15 years China won't need any EU or US or Japanese imports, what will happen then?

With the amount of reverse engineering going on, I would say that within 15 years or less, China will be making their own jumbo jets, their own high speed trains, their own luxury cars, their own elevators, industrial machinery, nuclear power plants, turbines, and even their own operating system - or everything will be web based by then, so Linux is good enough.

And they will be making it cheaper than everyone else because of the abundance of labor.

How will Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations theory work out when one single country makes practically everything, at a similar quality and cheaper than everyone else.

it's david ricardo, not adam smith. it's called comparative advantage, not the wealth of nations. and it does not refer to one producer having an advantage over another, but to a producer or nation doing some things more efficiently than it, itself, does other things.

try http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: In 15 years China won't need any EU or US or Japanese imports, what will happen then?

Before predicting 15 years in the future, I would caution about taking current trends and extrapolating them out indefinitely.

The popping of the Chinese real estate bubble could cause all kinds of unintended consequences, most of them bad.

[medved]

Re: In 15 years China won't need any EU or US or Japanese imports, what will happen then?

With the amount of reverse engineering going on, I would say that within 15 years or less, China will be making their own jumbo jets, their own high speed trains, their own luxury cars, their own elevators, industrial machinery, nuclear power plants, turbines, and even their own operating system - or everything will be web based by then, so Linux is good enough.

And they will be making it cheaper than everyone else because of the abundance of labor.

How will Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations theory work out when one single country makes practically everything, at a similar quality and cheaper than everyone else.

I have a trick question for you. Russia was doing reverse engineering for years (including some serious efforts by yours truly). How come they still need US/European/Japanese imports ? ;)

[GRG55]

Re: In 15 years China won't need any EU or US or Japanese imports, what will happen then?

I have a trick question for you. Russia was doing reverse engineering for years (including some serious efforts by yours truly). How come they still need US/European/Japanese imports ? ;)

Because reverse engineering one of these...



in order to create one of these...



is no way to build an empire? ;)

With the amount of reverse engineering going on, I would say that within 15 years or less, China will be making their own jumbo jets, their own high speed trains, their own luxury cars, their own elevators, industrial machinery, nuclear power plants, turbines, and even their own operating system - or everything will be web based by then, so Linux is good enough.

And they will be making it cheaper than everyone else because of the abundance of labor...

That's the problem with reverse engineering. Whatever you make is someone else's previous product model. The good thing is that if in 15 years China is indeed making all this stuff, it means they have finally reached consumer economy nirvana [they won't be making all that stuff if they can't sell most of it to their own internal market]. And that means there will be an export market for the rest of the world where one does not exist now...except for the some commodity producers...

[touchring]

Re: In 15 years China won't need any EU or US or Japanese imports, what will happen then?

I have a trick question for you. Russia was doing reverse engineering for years (including some serious efforts by yours truly). How come they still need US/European/Japanese imports ? ;)

There was actually a period of time when China made almost everything that required a good amount of manufacturing, and either better than everyone else or made them exclusively.

That was the period between 500AD to 1400AD.

China made explosives, guns, cannons, silk garment, books (yes, by mass production instead of writing), porcelain chinaware, modern ships (with rudder and navigation equipment), banknotes, checks, long list here - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Chinese_inventions

[medved]

Re: In 15 years China won't need any EU or US or Japanese imports, what will happen then?

There was actually a period of time when China made almost everything that required a good amount of manufacturing, and either better than everyone else or made them exclusively.

That was the period between 500AD to 1400AD.

China made explosives, guns, cannons, silk garment, books (yes, by mass production instead of writing), porcelain chinaware, modern ships (with rudder and navigation equipment), banknotes, checks, long list here - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Chinese_inventions

This is correct, but times change.

Once upon a time Islamic civilization was advanced and dynamic, and Europe was ruled by illiterate slobs. So when European "nobility" wanted to get more civilized, they had to study Arabic and study whatever culture was preserved and further developed by Muslims. But it does not mean that Egypt or Uzbekistan will tomorrow become hotbeds of advanced technology.

Unfortunately, the same applies to China. All they learned till now is run dirt cheap mass production supported by vendor financing. This is no more sustainable than Western debt bubble.

AMOF, Japan has similar problem. They all need to learn some new tricks. Americans also need to learn something outside of borrowing and spending.

However, I doubt, China won't need US/Europe/Japan. Without them Chinese technology will seriously lag behind.

[medved]

Re: In 15 years China won't need any EU or US or Japanese imports, what will happen then?

Because reverse engineering one of these...
in order to create one of these...
is no way to build an empire? ;)

That's the problem with reverse engineering. Whatever you make is someone else's previous product model.

Correct.

But this brings another trick question. Russians had plenty of their own original R&D (not necessarily in consumer products). Who made them stick to reverse engineering?

[Ghent12]

Re: In 15 years China won't need any EU or US or Japanese imports, what will happen then?

This is correct, but times change.

Once upon a time Islamic civilization was advanced and dynamic, and Europe was ruled by illiterate slobs. So when European "nobility" wanted to get more civilized, they had to study Arabic and study whatever culture was preserved and further developed by Muslims. But it does not mean that Egypt or Uzbekistan will tomorrow become hotbeds of advanced technology.

Unfortunately, the same applies to China. All they learned till now is run dirt cheap mass production supported by vendor financing. This is no more sustainable than Western debt bubble.

AMOF, Japan has similar problem. They all need to learn some new tricks. Americans also need to learn something outside of borrowing and spending.

However, I doubt, China won't need US/Europe/Japan. Without them Chinese technology will seriously lag behind.

All of this is true, which is why I think there are three intangibles that America has in spades that no other nation can match now or relatively soon in the future; these three things are the pillars of 'hope' holding up America and I certainly hope that they don't 'change' either (with the exception of the application of the first one):
1) Military: like it or not, America has and will retain the premiere fighting force and force projection capability on the planet now and until the indefinite future. While certain regions could potentially be 'cut' from America's nearly global sphere of influence (especially centered around China), that capability is still decades off.
2) Ingenuity: America is still tops when it comes to creating the future. Period. The Internet and most major innovations to it originate in America. Aerospace is an enormous springboard for all sorts of new innovations from structures/materials to electronics to plain old aerodynamics, and it is being fed perpetually by the American war state.
3) Creativity: closely linked to ingenuity, but there's no denying that if we had regular contact with alien worlds, Hollywood would be among our chief cultural exports globally.

America took the Industrial Revolution and ran away with it towards unheard-of prosperity. America also invented the modern age more than any other. While I don't agree with standing armies, it is important to maintain an environment that allows at least the latter two traits to thrive.

[touchring]

Re: In 15 years China won't need any EU or US or Japanese imports, what will happen then?

This is correct, but times change.

Once upon a time Islamic civilization was advanced and dynamic, and Europe was ruled by illiterate slobs. So when European "nobility" wanted to get more civilized, they had to study Arabic and study whatever culture was preserved and further developed by Muslims. But it does not mean that Egypt or Uzbekistan will tomorrow become hotbeds of advanced technology.

Times have changed, but the people and capabilities have not changed.

The Chinese were never a religious people, so they can't compare with the Middle East or India with respect to religious study and literature, in fact China imported Buddhism from India, Islam and Christianity from the Middle East (first Christians to arrive in China were Persians - they were still Christians then).

On government systems, the Chinese adopted western ideas such as Communism, democracy (yet to be adopted).

But when it comes to technology, military and medicine we know today, the Chinese invented practically all of them.

1. Modern warfare - landmines, chemical weapons, gun powder, cannons, rockets for warfare were first to be used by the Chinese.

2. Modern shipping - stern rudder, watertight compartments, modern sails, compass, were first used in China.

3. Modern finance - first bank notes, nationwide banking networks had in been use a thousand years before Europe.

4. Modern medicine - heart beat reading (by pulse), detection by urine and treatment for diabetes, smallpox innoculation, anaesthesia, and also familiar stuff like acupuncture, foot reflexology that is associated with TCM, and which still cannot be explained by science even today.


The Chinese will not be mere copy cats, copying is just the quickest way and most profitable way, but if there is a need to innovate, you'll be surprise how quickly they will be able to adapt themselves on that.

[jpatter666]

Re: In 15 years China won't need any EU or US or Japanese imports, what will happen then?

Times have changed, but the people and capabilities have not changed.

The Chinese were never a religious people, so they can't compare with the Middle East or India with respect to religious study and literature, in fact China imported Buddhism from India, Islam and Christianity from the Middle East (first Christians to arrive in China were Persians - they were still Christians then).

On government systems, the Chinese adopted western ideas such as Communism, democracy (yet to be adopted).

But when it comes to technology, military and medicine we know today, the Chinese invented practically all of them.

1. Modern warfare - landmines, chemical weapons, gun powder, cannons, rockets for warfare were first to be used by the Chinese.

2. Modern shipping - stern rudder, watertight compartments, modern sails, compass, were first used in China.

3. Modern finance - first bank notes, nationwide banking networks had in been use a thousand years before Europe.

4. Modern medicine - heart beat reading (by pulse), detection by urine and treatment for diabetes, smallpox innoculation, anaesthesia, and also familiar stuff like acupuncture, foot reflexology that is associated with TCM, and which still cannot be explained by science even today.


The Chinese will not be mere copy cats, copying is just the quickest way and most profitable way, but if there is a need to innovate, you'll be surprise how quickly they will be able to adapt themselves on that.

Perhaps so -- maybe you could said some light on legal protections within China for new inventions?

It's easy to copy something that has already been invented. Just add cheap labor and materials...

But what allows a Chinese inventor to create something new and reap the rewards of that work? Without that framework, not much incentive.

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: In 15 years China won't need any EU or US or Japanese imports, what will happen then?

Correct.

But this brings another trick question. Russians had plenty of their own original R&D (not necessarily in consumer products). Who made them stick to reverse engineering?

Well, Let's see. The first instance of Soviet reverse engineering that I am aware of was when they copied a US B-29 that was impounded.

The T-34 tank and the MIG-15 were pretty innovative and both surprised the hell out of their respective opponents when first fielded but except for some fighters and helicopters, much of Soviet aeronautical development was a direct copy of western designs. (i.e. Antonov and Ilyushin transports, the Buran space shuttle)

My perception is that Soviet science was pretty good but they had a much harder time engineering and building the final product to a 6 sigma standard.

Post WW 2 was when a lot of technology was flourishing, Stalin was in charge back then but despite his many other flaws, I am going to say he did approve of technological innovation. Kruschev was from a rural background. Maybe he wasn't comfortable with R&D?

[llanlad2]

Re: In 15 years China won't need any EU or US or Japanese imports, what will happen then?

2) Ingenuity: America is still tops when it comes to creating the future. Period. The Internet and most major innovations to it originate in America. Aerospace is an enormous springboard for all sorts of new innovations from structures/materials to electronics to plain old aerodynamics, and it is being fed perpetually by the American war state.
3) Creativity: closely linked to ingenuity, but there's no denying that if we had regular contact with alien worlds, Hollywood would be among our chief cultural exports globally.

There is nothing inherently creative about American people. It is wealth that allows a nation to be creative.
When you are a rich nation you can afford failure. This leads to a greater ability to take risks and innovate. Capital is heading East and innovation will follow. Without less capital in the west there will be a lot less venture capitalists which will lead to less innovation to less capital until you end up like the UK ie full of innovators but bankrupt

[Ghent12]

Re: In 15 years China won't need any EU or US or Japanese imports, what will happen then?

There is nothing inherently creative about American people. It is wealth that allows a nation to be creative.
When you are a rich nation you can afford failure. This leads to a greater ability to take risks and innovate. Capital is heading East and innovation will follow. Without less capital in the west there will be a lot less venture capitalists which will lead to less innovation to less capital until you end up like the UK ie full of innovators but bankrupt

That's largely true, although America's wealth was substantially different than that of the rest of the world during the 19th century. For the first half it resided in slave labor and absolutely abundant natural resources. In the latter half it resided it even more natural resources. However, there's a reason why America boomed and ran away with creativity while other nations and continents abundant in those same resources did not (i.e. much of Africa). Wealth of a different kind was amassed in Europe during that time period and their 19th century was a bit different...

You're right though that the coming flight of capital will be disastrous. No argument there.

[jpatter666]

Re: In 15 years China won't need any EU or US or Japanese imports, what will happen then?

There is nothing inherently creative about American people. It is wealth that allows a nation to be creative.
When you are a rich nation you can afford failure. This leads to a greater ability to take risks and innovate. Capital is heading East and innovation will follow. Without less capital in the west there will be a lot less venture capitalists which will lead to less innovation to less capital until you end up like the UK ie full of innovators but bankrupt

I disagree. There are several examples of rich nations not being creative. Rome never achieved the creative greatness of little Greece. Imperial Russia was fabulously wealthy (I've seen the palaces) but the Renaissance occurred in Italy. Japan is still one of the wealthiest nations in the world, why hasn't it seized the innovation lead?

And if wealth was the sole factor, the Mideast would be one of the innovation hotspots of the world.

IMO while wealth is certain a *factor*, culture and legal frameworks to protect innovators are at least as important.