The breath of the dragon

[thunderdownunder]

When oil is heated in a Wok to high temperatures it emits a smoke to tell the chef that it is ready to fry all the ingredients - it is called the breath of the dragon
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...SZD.Jr4&pos=11

Do you think its Hot enough yet?
Me I don't care, I sitting here in little Singapore, sweating and waiting on Lasksa

[GRG55]

Re: The breath of the dragon

When oil is heated in a Wok to high temperatures it emits a smoke to tell the chef that it is ready to fry all the ingredients - it is called the breath of the dragon
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...SZD.Jr4&pos=11

Do you think its Hot enough yet?
Me I don't care, I sitting here in little Singapore, sweating and waiting on Lasksa

It all sounds sooooo familiar. Two years ago all the same things were being said in Dubai and the Gulf.

"Supply creates its own demand..."

"Our banks are okay...Islamic finance is more conservative and careful and that makes all the difference..."

"The government won't let the property market overheat or go down..." [the Goldilocks theory of central planning :rolleyes: ]

"There's still a big shortage of office space in Dubai..."

On that last item, the quote from the CB Richard Ellis rep is priceless:

"...In many cases when you look at these buildings and say, that’s never going to be fully occupied, somehow 12 to 18 months later the building is full,” said Chris Brooke, CB Richard Ellis’s Beijing-based president and chief executive officer for Asia..."

They were saying exactly the same thing in Dubai two years back. What was happening was all the newly rich property tycoons - which included all those people in other businesses that were redirecting cash into property because it was more lucrative than expanding their own businesses - were moving out of 2nd and 3rd class office space into the newly built prestige towers so they could display their incredible business acumen to all their friends and associates. That's what created the apparent "shortage" of office space.

I can take you around today and show you not only unfinished, empty office space, but completely fitted out offices with lavish furnishings [Italian made glass desks are a favourite]...and not a single employee to be seen, not even someone to answer the phone.

[Down Under]

Re: The breath of the dragon

It all sounds sooooo familiar. Two years ago all the same things were being said in Dubai and the Gulf.

"Supply creates its own demand..."

"Our banks are okay...Islamic finance is more conservative and careful and that makes all the difference..."

"The government won't let the property market overheat or go down..." [the Goldilocks theory of central planning :rolleyes: ]

"There's still a big shortage of office space in Dubai..."

On that last item, the quote from the CB Richard Ellis rep is priceless:

"...In many cases when you look at these buildings and say, that’s never going to be fully occupied, somehow 12 to 18 months later the building is full,” said Chris Brooke, CB Richard Ellis’s Beijing-based president and chief executive officer for Asia..."

They were saying exactly the same thing in Dubai two years back. What was happening was all the newly rich property tycoons - which included all those people in other businesses that were redirecting cash into property because it was more lucrative than expanding their own businesses - were moving out of 2nd and 3rd class office space into the newly built prestige towers so they could display their incredible business acumen to all their friends and associates. That's what created the apparent "shortage" of office space.

I can take you around today and show you not only unfinished, empty office space, but completely fitted out offices with lavish furnishings [Italian made glass desks are a favourite]...and not a single employee to be seen, not even someone to answer the phone.

The world's in a bit of a mess, eh, GRG? Sure looks like it's gonna blow big time, at some stage.

[thunderdownunder]

Re: The breath of the dragon

Look I put this here because i know the Chinese people. They are a marvel to me, so many yet it works (much like India). They have a huge problem but not in population although that works against them.
The problem they have is " xeroxing" - they copy by dismantling what is western/ capitalistic and they make for themselves, bigger and better and with Chinese improvements. 'tis not new, I am old enough to remember when "made in Japan" was a sign of inferior products - until it wasn't. In fact did you know that the famed Datsun 1600 (Bluebird in US -the car that made Japan) was moved by a motor designed around the Merc 240-6, the parts are interchangeable. The Japanese pulled it down and made a better copy -independent suspension, disc brakes, OHC by chain ... the list goes on.
China has and is doing the same but it also didn't filter out the "dark" parts. They have adopted some of the most destructive of economic policies of the west. To build unused buildings is grand, it shows of wealth but it destroys capital in its use. A building does not create or move wealth as road or rail does, in fact it absorbs materials and labor at a vast rate and then continues to use resources as it rots in the sun without providing income to pay its way. Labor and material diverted are lost forever to the productive and wealth building sectors of trade.
They are very smart people and are now developing things the west would have and should have done if they had the cash to do it - Gen 4 reactor- pebble reactors - high speed rail - high efficiency ports, distribution and road networks. Even their health sector is at the cutting edge.
But they have a small but looming fault that they accepted as great. Capital tied to the western system of P+I and will find that with a fixed exchange rate sharing a bed with another infectious patient will lead to infection.
I have hope that the one thing they have going for them is they are not a Democracy so change can happen without argument or debate. To pull 1.6 billion people up by their shoelaces it hard enough but to do it tied to a "xeroxed" capital system that it faulty is an unmitigated disaster that is as telltale as the breath of the dragon smoke issuing forth.

[GRG55]

Re: The breath of the dragon

Look I put this here because i know the Chinese people. They are a marvel to me, so many yet it works (much like India). They have a huge problem but not in population although that works against them.
The problem they have is " xeroxing" - they copy by dismantling what is western/ capitalistic and they make for themselves, bigger and better and with Chinese improvements. 'tis not new, I am old enough to remember when "made in Japan" was a sign of inferior products - until it wasn't. In fact did you know that the famed Datsun 1600 (Bluebird in US -the car that made Japan) was moved by a motor designed around the Merc 240-6, the parts are interchangeable. The Japanese pulled it down and made a better copy -independent suspension, disc brakes, OHC by chain ... the list goes on.
China has and is doing the same but it also didn't filter out the "dark" parts. They have adopted some of the most destructive of economic policies of the west. To build unused buildings is grand, it shows of wealth but it destroys capital in its use. A building does not create or move wealth as road or rail does, in fact it absorbs materials and labor at a vast rate and then continues to use resources as it rots in the sun without providing income to pay its way. Labor and material diverted are lost forever to the productive and wealth building sectors of trade.
They are very smart people and are now developing things the west would have and should have done if they had the cash to do it - Gen 4 reactor- pebble reactors - high speed rail - high efficiency ports, distribution and road networks. Even their health sector is at the cutting edge.
But they have a small but looming fault that they accepted as great. Capital tied to the western system of P+I and will find that with a fixed exchange rate sharing a bed with another infectious patient will lead to infection.
I have hope that the one thing they have going for them is they are not a Democracy so change can happen without argument or debate. To pull 1.6 billion people up by their shoelaces it hard enough but to do it tied to a "xeroxed" capital system that it faulty is an unmitigated disaster that is as telltale as the breath of the dragon smoke issuing forth.

They'll do fine in time...but it's going to be a roller-coaster ride...with lots of fun and games along the way......and the "western financial system" is far from their only problem.

From last summer...Turns out there was not a single stick of steel reinforcing rod in the hollow-core concrete piles. The excavation created a lateral load as the building tried to first slide sideways into the hole and, once the piles failed in shear, it toppled over. The stub ends of the unreinforced piles are clearly visible in the photo in the article. No doubt some "building inspector" got paid off.

This is, unfortunately, the mentality that results in lead painted toys, melamine in milk, toxic drywall, and a host of other examples of an economy that has a ways to go before it can really compete against the best the rest of the world can do.

[Shakespear]

Re: The breath of the dragon

To build unused buildings is grand, it shows of wealth but it destroys capital in its use. A building does not create or move wealth as road or rail does, in fact it absorbs materials and labor at a vast rate and then continues to use resources as it rots in the sun without providing income to pay its way. Labor and material diverted are lost forever to the productive and wealth building sectors of trade.

They are very smart people and are now developing things the west would have and should have done if they had the cash to do it - Gen 4 reactor- pebble reactors - high speed rail - high efficiency ports, distribution and road networks. Even their health sector is at the cutting edge.

Good observations.

pebble reactors - been around since at least 80' and I don't think you will find 1 in the US !!!!

high speed rail - known technology for moving lots of people, yet .... None in the US. In Texas it was a fight to the death and HS Rail lost.

It sure pays to have the best Educational System in the World. Perhaps the Chinese will show us how to use the knowledge better ;););)

[c1ue]

Re: The breath of the dragon

This is, unfortunately, the mentality that results in lead painted toys, melamine in milk, toxic drywall, and a host of other examples of an economy that has a ways to go before it can really compete against the best the rest of the world can do.

I've said before, what's occurring in China is no different than what was seen in the early Industrialization era in the US.

Part of that is lack of regulation - the regulatory needs of a largely agrarian society are radically different (and smaller) than an industrial one.

The faked steel structure rods is a great example - in a 1 story house, maybe even a 2 story house, it is no big deal (until an earthquake). But in a tower, it is an immediate problem.

Part of that is the composition of Chinese society: there are a lot of just plain ignorant people there. The toxic cough syrup is a prime one: it turns out one of the first movers in that endeavor was a village tailor. He got into the business of supplying glycerine, but found a similar substance which was much cheaper: diethyl glycol.

Being a honorable man, he swallowed a bottle of diethyl glycol himself as a test. When he didn't have any problems, he shipped out barrels of diethyl glycol relabelled as glycerine figuring it was the same thing.

The last part is the plain and simple combination of greed and ruthlessness. Melamine is nothing like what it is supposed to substitute for. But somebody cunning enough figured out that the tests used to determine protein content could be fooled by adding in melamine.

In all fairness much of this would be less of an issue inside and outside of China were it not for the DEMAND for cheaper crap.

[dummass]

Re: The breath of the dragon

How about this one (FXP); China double short.

http://www.proshares.com/funds/fxp.html

[GRG55]

Re: The breath of the dragon

They'll do fine in time...but it's going to be a roller-coaster ride...with lots of fun and games along the way......and the "western financial system" is far from their only problem.

From last summer...Turns out there was not a single stick of steel reinforcing rod in the hollow-core concrete piles. The excavation created a lateral load as the building tried to first slide sideways into the hole and, once the piles failed in shear, it toppled over. The stub ends of the unreinforced piles are clearly visible in the photo in the article. No doubt some "building inspector" got paid off.

This is, unfortunately, the mentality that results in lead painted toys, melamine in milk, toxic drywall, and a host of other examples of an economy that has a ways to go before it can really compete against the best the rest of the world can do.

Maybe the USA needs to import some of that cheap Chinese labour to get this job done...:rolleyes:

Feds: Homes with Chinese drywall must be gutted

By CAIN BURDEAU,Associated Press Writer – Fri Apr 2, 6:17 pm ET

NEW ORLEANS – Thousands of U.S. homes tainted by Chinese drywall should be gutted, according to new guidelines released Friday by the Consumer Product Safety Commission.

The guidelines say electrical wiring, outlets, circuit breakers, fire alarm systems, carbon monoxide alarms, fire sprinklers, gas pipes and drywall need to be removed.

"We want families to tear it all out and rebuild the interior of their homes, and they need to start this to get their lives started all over again," said Inez Tenenbaum, chairwoman of the commission, the federal agency charged with making sure consumer products are safe.

About 3,000 homeowners, mostly in Florida, Virginia, Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana, have reported problems with the Chinese-made drywall, which was imported in large quantities during the housing boom and after a string of Gulf Coast hurricanes.

The drywall has been linked to corrosion of wiring, air conditioning units, computers, doorknobs and jewelry, along with possible health effects. Tenenbaum said some samples of the Chinese-made product emit 100 times as much hydrogen sulfide as drywall made elsewhere...

...But Randy Noel, past president of the Louisiana Home Builders Association, said the Chinese drywall problem has been exaggerated. He called the new guidelines "overkill."


"Nobody has come up with a house yet that has caught on fire from the Chinese drywall, no one has come up yet with a house that leaks water or gas because of Chinese drywall," he said.

He has examined numerous homes containing Chinese drywall and found minor problems, he said.
"It's a black soot on top of the copper, brass and silver," he said. "You wipe the stuff off and it looks as good as new."