The next black swan?

[touchring]

Israel slams Iranian nuke weapon factories?

If not, how about Hezbollah armed with nuke missiles.

No one talks about this any more. I believe that war always happen when we don't expect it to happen, just like how Israel invaded south Lebanon a few years back, and how Saddam invaded Kuwait 18 years ago.

I'm not speculating as to when it will happen though.

[goadam1]

Re: The next black swan?

Israel slams Iranian nuke weapon factories?

If not, how about Hezbollah armed with nuke missiles.

No one talks about this any more. I believe that war always happen when we don't expect it to happen, just like how Israel invaded south Lebanon a few years back, and how Saddam invaded Kuwait 18 years ago.

I'm not speculating as to when it will happen though.

I see nothing but a "cool as cucumber" strategy from Tehran. I think the game for them is to maintain control of as much of the Shia branch as possible. Hezbollah and it's tepid war with Israel works as both an ideological and strategic threat. But to step over the line into all out war would be silly and disastrous. Think of how vulnerable they are on the home front. If Israel bombs (and I doubt it) their nuclear capability a face saving response would happen but not all out war. If anything they would love us to feel Iraq is all buttoned up and leave so a Shia government can take over. They will continue a medium cool proxy war with Saudi Arabia and Sunnism but slow and steady seems to be their plan.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009...-east-conflict
Yemeni refugees caught up in Middle East's forgotten war
A long-running conflict between rebels and government forces has entered a dangerous phase with attacks by Saudi forces forcing thousands of families into overcrowded refugee camps

[touchring]

Re: The next black swan?

I see nothing but a "cool as cucumber" strategy from Tehran. I think the game for them is to maintain control of as much of the Shia branch as possible. Hezbollah and it's tepid war with Israel works as both an ideological and strategic threat. But to step over the line into all out war would be silly and disastrous. Think of how vulnerable they are on the home front. If Israel bombs (and I doubt it) their nuclear capability a face saving response would happen but not all out war. If anything they would love us to feel Iraq is all buttoned up and leave so a Shia government can take over. They will continue a medium cool proxy war with Saudi Arabia and Sunnism but slow and steady seems to be their plan.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009...-east-conflict
Yemeni refugees caught up in Middle East's forgotten war
A long-running conflict between rebels and government forces has entered a dangerous phase with attacks by Saudi forces forcing thousands of families into overcrowded refugee camps

I know, but it's only a matter of time before Iran gets the nukes. Having nuclear capability is advantageous from the military, political and strategic point of view. North Korea and Pakistan has proven it.

And who knows, after Iran gets the nukes, as was in the case of Pakistan, America may embrace Iran - it's better to make a diplomatic friend of a nuclear capable state than a foe, and which is what Iran risks. After all, the Iranians view themselves as related to Caucasians and Europeans. ;) Such an ending will may have negative repercussions on both Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Iran has the upper hand in this game.

[thunderdownunder]

Re: The next black swan?

No one talks about this any more. I believe that war always happen when we don't expect it to happen

Correct but,

War happens in front of your eyes, slowly, diplomatically, with agreements signed but not honored. Always has, always will be, a slow avalanche to despair and failure to act. Much like a fire that escapes in bush with much willing tinder to feed it. Like infidelity.
So History tells and explains.
I love history because it explains that humans have not evolved at all.

[touchring]

Re: The next black swan?

Correct but,

War happens in front of your eyes, slowly, diplomatically, with agreements signed but not honored. Always has, always will be, a slow avalanche to despair and failure to act. Much like a fire that escapes in bush with much willing tinder to feed it. Like infidelity.
So History tells and explains.
I love history because it explains that humans have not evolved at all.

Several historical precedents. Japan signed a peace treaty with the USA a week before Pearl Harbor. Saddam invaded a fellow Arab ally state, Kuwait.