I've just switched to Euro

[touchring]

I've given up on the dollar, changed my price list to Euros. After 2 years of contemplating this move and hesitation, after the recent events, I'm now quite convinced that the dollar will go down the drain. Wall street has won, but America has lost.

[grapejelly]

Re: I've just switched to Euro

time to go long on the USD...

[touchring]

Re: I've just switched to Euro

ya, i'm talking about the medium to long term, short term fluctuations, i don't really care. i set prices with my suppliers for 1-2 years, don't want to be caught in the situation when the dollar value falls by 15% or 20% June next year.

comparing the euro and usd chart, euro looks more stable. the fluctuations in the dollar is crazy.

[Guest]

Re: I've just switched to Euro

Ya. What Grapejelly said.

[FRED]

Re: I've just switched to Euro

I've given up on the dollar, changed my price list to Euros. After 2 years of contemplating this move and hesitation, after the recent events, I'm now quite convinced that the dollar will go down the drain. Wall street has won, but America has lost.

We forecast in April in Everyone is wrong, again – 1981 in Reverse Part I: The Great Divide – Eric Janszen:

Dollar Peaking

A period of global deleveraging began last year that drove up demand for dollar denominated assets and with them the dollar itself. In July 2008, we estimated that the period of deleveraging to last for approximately six months. In line with that forecast, the dollar rally produced by safe haven flight appears to be ebbing.

Today:

The dollar will continue a down trend that started in the early 1970s, took a detour during the FIRE Economy era from the early 1980s until 2001, fell rapidly during the liquidity-based FIRE Economy rebound, bounced during FIRE Economy death throes between July 2008 and March 2009--a period popularly known as “de-leveraging”--and resumed its decline thereafter. iTulip dollar target 2015: 60. We tend to be overly optimistic; the dollar may fall farther and faster than this forecast.

[jk]

Re: I've just switched to Euro

We forecast in April in Everyone is wrong, again – 1981 in Reverse Part I: The Great Divide – Eric Janszen:

Dollar Peaking

A period of global deleveraging began last year that drove up demand for dollar denominated assets and with them the dollar itself. In July 2008, we estimated that the period of deleveraging to last for approximately six months. In line with that forecast, the dollar rally produced by safe haven flight appears to be ebbing.

Today:

The dollar will continue a down trend that started in the early 1970s, took a detour during the FIRE Economy era from the early 1980s until 2001, fell rapidly during the liquidity-based FIRE Economy rebound, bounced during FIRE Economy death throes between July 2008 and March 2009--a period popularly known as “de-leveraging”--and resumed its decline thereafter. iTulip dollar target 2015: 60. We tend to be overly optimistic; the dollar may fall farther and faster than this forecast.

then why are you recommending 70% in short duration dollar assets?

[Guest]

Re: I've just switched to Euro

JK, they are merely sensibly hedging their bets.

[jpatter666]

Re: I've just switched to Euro

then why are you recommending 70% in short duration dollar assets?

To be remedied in the I'm starting to think mythical reallocation posting.... :rolleyes:

[goadam1]

Re: I've just switched to Euro

then why are you recommending 70% in short duration dollar assets?

I thought the idea of being in the shortest (4 week) part of the curve was to take advantage of rapid changes to rates in the safest possible way.

[goadam1]

Re: I've just switched to Euro

To be remedied in the I'm starting to think mythical reallocation posting.... :rolleyes:

Maybe there is no sensible place to hide? Just keep going to the back of the boat, it is the last part to sink.

[FRED]

Re: I've just switched to Euro

Maybe there is no sensible place to hide? Just keep going to the back of the boat, it is the last part to sink.

Gold hedges dollar risk while treasuries hedge the de-leveraging risk in the context of the following macro-economic processes:

• Dissolution of the debt leveraged FIRE Economy
• Wind down of the Dollar Cartel
• Onset of Peak Cheap Oil
• Evolution of Economic M.A.D.

The objective is low volatility and maximum return on risk with a minimum trades, and no drawdown.

[Jay]

Re: I've just switched to Euro

That pretty much confirms a commodity bull then or at least a continued PM surge.

[grapejelly]

Re: I've just switched to Euro

I'm not in agreement about the USD. I think as bad as it is, other currencies are worse.

The situation in Europe is still worse than in the US in many ways for instance.

The USD is defended by aircraft carriers and satellites and guns...

I think the USD will not fall much further at the moment against other currencies. But gold and commodities will start rising against the USD and all other currencies.

[metalman]

Re: I've just switched to Euro

I'm not in agreement about the USD. I think as bad as it is, other currencies are worse.

everyone and his dog thinks that.

The situation in Europe is still worse than in the US in many ways for instance.

really?

The USD is defended by aircraft carriers and satellites and guns...

that we can't friggin afford... and everyone knows it.

I think the USD will not fall much further at the moment against other currencies. But gold and commodities will start rising against the USD and all other currencies.

how prescient...

[goadam1]

Re: I've just switched to Euro

All I hear all over bloomberg is weakening dollar trade: petro dollars, commodities, gold, etc. Seems like a lot of other people sniff lots of cash and weakness in a productive economy in the west.