Reposted comment from Birinyi thread. Head's up!

[xela]

Re: Reposted comment from Birinyi thread. Head's up!

Re: Birinyi, a supplemental read at http://www.generationaldynamics.com;
just a pimp

Btw, there are two good reads by Joseph Russo, having another (IMO also more believable) wave count then Prechter here
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article10859.html
and here
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8163.html

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Reposted comment from Birinyi thread. Head's up!

Re: Birinyi, a supplemental read at http://www.generationaldynamics.com;
just a pimp

That generationaldynamics.com stuff is interesting - thanks.

One probably shouldn't take it too exactly, but it does help keep from the usual errors of analyzing what's going on with blinders determined by ones particular focus and expertise.

[flintlock]

Re: Reposted comment from Birinyi thread. Head's up!

[emphasis added]
the fly in this ointment is that if deflation/disinflation is really over, and inflation is due to show up via commodities, why are you and i and grg55 and, most tellingly, ej keeping our powder dry to buy commodities at a better price?

Been wondering the same thing myself. I'm not waiting anymore, I'm getting in next week. ( already in oil)


This forum needs more emoticons. Those little emotion thingys. We need the guy eating popcorn one I've seen elsewhere for Luke and metal's little tifts.

[Guest]

Re: Reposted comment from Birinyi thread. Head's up!

Flintlock -

We may be within a month or two of discovering whether this upleg since march terminates with a "catastrophe" downleg as a sequel, or with a modest downleg, before more upside. Whatever the market does subsequently will "show it's hand", after the impulse rally off the March lows.

So it may make at least some sense to wait to observe whatever is the sequel to iTulip's "first bounce". If you assumed just entirely hypothetically that it could be a several year bull run, then one can trade time for a more assured confirmation signal from the market.

Been wondering the same thing myself. I'm not waiting anymore, I'm getting in next week. ( already in oil)

This forum needs more emoticons. Those little emotion thingys. We need the guy eating popcorn one I've seen elsewhere for Luke and metal's little tifts.

[xela]

Re: Reposted comment from Birinyi thread. Head's up!

Absolutely. His predictions on the financial mess are of deflationist nature, but the generational stuff is a good read.

[jtabeb]

Re: Reposted comment from Birinyi thread. Head's up!

'dude, shut up'?

the question was settled in your own mind, but not mine.

if this was a bubble...



then so was this...



calling one a bubble and not the other is silly.

if you believed the deflation story, you bet on oil to $20. but if you understood ka-poom theory... no deflation spiral, you'd never have fallen for that crapola.

pay attention.

dude, the fdi is 90% dollar weighted & as ej explained in Deflation fare thee well...

'Post bubble disinflation: dollar rises, inflation falls, but not for long. The latest disinflation has ended. Now comes inflation. But what kind? The kind produced by the kind of re-inflation the government is pursuing.'

'Misguided deflation spiral believers misread the impulse of investors’ reptilian brains, and the carefully carved by the Fed yield curve, and a short-term spike in the dollar all together as confirmation of a deflation spiral. They extrapolated a few months’ data to decades of slow growth and low inflation as Japan experienced from 1992 until today, and will continue to suffer until, eventually, the yen collapses.'

deflation spiral? where? there's a word for that call... WRONG.

there was no deflation spiral.

a short deflation, sure... itulip calls it disinflation.

geez, it's like playing friggin deflation whack-a-mole....

Tell you what, let's settle this like men. In 24 months we will so who is correct okay? The bet? One 1 oz Cad Maple Silver coin (you know, keep it friendly and still have it matter).

You in? (I got mine ready and waiting, you know, to compare it to the one you are going to send me in 24 months)

Seriously 1 Oz of Ag, will you take those terms?

[metalman]

Re: Reposted comment from Birinyi thread. Head's up!

Tell you what, let's settle this like men. In 24 months we will so who is correct okay? The bet? One 1 oz Cad Maple Silver coin (you know, keep it friendly and still have it matter).

You in? (I got mine ready and waiting, you know, to compare it to the one you are going to send me in 24 months)

Seriously 1 Oz of Ag, will you take those terms?

what are we betting on? $20 oil? $4 silver? $400 gold?

same old shit. whatever.

ok, i'll take your bet, but 1oz silver is wussy style.

1 oz gold!



if it's selling in usa dollars for < $1k send it to you. if > $1k you send to me.

deal?

[LargoWinch]

Re: Reposted comment from Birinyi thread. Head's up!

what are we betting on? $20 oil? $4 silver? $400 gold?

same old shit. whatever.

ok, i'll take your bet, but 1oz silver is wussy style.

1 oz gold!



if it's selling in usa dollars for < $1k send it to you. if > $1k you send to me.

deal?

Welcome to iTulip's underground betting central, but what would the IRS say about this? Does this mean iTulip will need to be hosted out of the Bahamas now? :p

From my vantage point, I do not see how the particulars for this bet correlate with the discussion between you two fine gents in this thread. Question is: why $1K strike price? Also, JT, are you not bullish on Gold?

Based on today's price (Bid) of USD955.80 for Ag, a 12-month call at $1K represents a 4.6% increase.

PS: I can act as depositor for the coin for a nominal fee; after all we are talking about a Maple here (insurance provided by AIG and lots of counter-party risk) ;).

[metalman]

Re: Reposted comment from Birinyi thread. Head's up!

Welcome to iTulip's underground betting central, but what would the IRS say about this? Does this mean iTulip will need to be hosted out of the Bahamas now? :p

what's itulip call it... a 'contest'.

From my vantage point, I do not see how the particulars for this bet correlate with the discussion between you two fine gents in this thread. Question is: why $1K strike price? Also, JT, are you not bullish on Gold?

Based on today's price (Bid) of USD955.80 for Ag, a 12-month call at $1K represents a 4.6% increase.

you got me. never got the deflation case. he says deflation so gold's gotta go lower than now. i'm being generous... tagging on the extra $50.

[jtabeb]

Re: Reposted comment from Birinyi thread. Head's up!

what's itulip call it... a 'contest'.




you got me. never got the deflation case. he says deflation so gold's gotta go lower than now. i'm being generous... tagging on the extra $50.

No, I'm betting with Antal Fekete.

Gold higher (cause it's money)

Itulip says "no deflationary spiral" I say bullshit and am willing to put my coin where my mouth is.

Metal, I'm not betting gold is going to be cheaper, (and foolish on my part since 95% of my assets are in physical PMs)

So, Let's make it clear. You say inflation, I say deflation spiral (where gold goes up because MONEY is hoarded in deflation, gold and silver being the best money, get hoarded the most).

I am also saying that some prices (for things that are PRODUCED WILL rise) but due to a classic supply reduction due to diminished manufacturing capacity but NOT due to over-issuance of currency.

So to be clear, I'm betting on a self-reinforcing sustained deflationary spiral. (with the clarifiers above).

I figure it's a win-win proposition. If you win, I'm rich so who cares, If I win, we are all poor, but no more FIRE so we ALL WIN.

So we need to agree on how to measure this and over what time frame. I was thinking FDI, maybe we could get some assistance from Esteem El Bartos and Finster himself to come up with an appropriate metric. I accept your terms with 1 Stipulation. I want a 2009 American Double Eagle as my booty (STS). Do you have a coin of choice?

(BTW the siver coin stems from the traditional gentleman's bet of $1.00, but since that would serve, potentially, no meaning due to the nature of our wager, I proposed the 1 oz Ag to "keep it friendly".

I see you do not wish to "keep it friendly". SO, I CALL!

Public terms posted on this site, and arbitration is by vote of the Itulip community (single vote per member, most number of votes, wins).

Do you accept?

Again my position for the bet is:

"Self-reinforcing deflationary spiral WITH price increases in produced goods due to reductions in productive capacity & gold and silver go up as they are money par excellence"

If you can live with the above (and if we can find a good metric), YOU, my friend, have yourself a wager!:eek:


EDIT: (add) I have a date in mind. July 29 2011, my last day serving on Active Duty for the US Air Force. Will that work for you?

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Reposted comment from Birinyi thread. Head's up!

EDIT: (add) I have a date in mind. July 29 2011, my last day serving on Active Duty for the US Air Force.

I wish you well in discharging on that date. For all our sakes, lets hope discharge orders aren't canceled due to some dramatic increase in war activity.

[jtabeb]

Re: Reposted comment from Birinyi thread. Head's up!

I wish you well in discharging on that date. For all our sakes, lets hope discharge orders aren't canceled due to some dramatic increase in war activity.

Happens all the time, it sucks, but who else is gonna do it, ya know.

[metalman]

Re: Reposted comment from Birinyi thread. Head's up!

No, I'm betting with Antal Fekete.

Gold higher (cause it's money)

it's just not fair. betting against gold bugs is shooting fish in a barrel.

mesmerized by the blathering hungarian, are we? how good have his forecasts been, eh?

$61 oil up from $32 is deflation?

heeeeellllloooooo. anyone home?

oh, well. it's your money... soon to be mine!

Itulip says "no deflationary spiral" I say bullshit and am willing to put my coin where my mouth is.

gold is money 'cause gov't said it was. silver, too. gold, silver, copper, platinum, oil... all are rising.

but you see an ongoing deflation spiral.

riiiiiiight.

itulip sees the unit of debt... the currency... dollars... getting weaker. your gold & silver are along for the ride... the inflationary ride.

Metal, I'm not betting gold is going to be cheaper, (and foolish on my part since 95% of my assets are in physical PMs)

So, Let's make it clear. You say inflation, I say deflation spiral (where gold goes up because MONEY is hoarded in deflation, gold and silver being the best money, get hoarded the most).

what! are you a mishy? prices of things go up in deflation when the money supply shrinks... the dollar gets stronger? that is some dopey shit, man.

look at the commodity price index.

I am also saying that some prices (for things that are PRODUCED WILL rise) but due to a classic supply reduction due to diminished manufacturing capacity but NOT due to over-issuance of currency.

that's not your theory. that's pure itulip suppply shock theory. you're picking and choosing. you like that part of itulip but don't like the 'gold isn't money' but 'oil is money' idea... ideology. it'll get ya every time.

So to be clear, I'm betting on a self-reinforcing sustained deflationary spiral. (with the clarifiers above).

just curious... how can you believe this after all that's gone down the past 2 quarters? evidence to the contrary is overwhelming.

I figure it's a win-win proposition. If you win, I'm rich so who cares, If I win, we are all poor, but no more FIRE so we ALL WIN.

now i'm really confused. are you saying if fire fails then inflation then gold goes up, but if fire doesn't fail then deflation spiral and gold goes up but less, or are you saying if fire fails then deflation spiral then gold goes up, but if fire doesn't fail then inflation and gold goes up but less?

let me make it simple for you... our clever gov't is monetizing all the private debt. this is a) increasing the money supply and 2) weakening the dollar. both are inflationary...

So we need to agree on how to measure this and over what time frame. I was thinking FDI, maybe we could get some assistance from Esteem El Bartos and Finster himself to come up with an appropriate metric.

correct me if i'm wrong, but hasn't the fdi been reading inflation?

I accept your terms with 1 Stipulation. I want a 2009 American Double Eagle as my booty (STS). Do you have a coin of choice?

(BTW the siver coin stems from the traditional gentleman's bet of $1.00, but since that would serve, potentially, no meaning due to the nature of our wager, I proposed the 1 oz Ag to "keep it friendly".

I see you do not wish to "keep it friendly". SO, I CALL!

1 oz $20 gold eagle it is.

Public terms posted on this site, and arbitration is by vote of the Itulip community (single vote per member, most number of votes, wins).

again, i need to know what i am betting on and find your arguments so confused i'm not sure what to make of it.

oil does not rise from $32 to $61 during a deflation spiral, but in your world it does. so how to bet?

i do not accept the fdi as a measure of inflation or deflation. we don't know what's in the fdi. for all i know it's oil/dollar/gold/housing/stocks, etc. mixing asset and commodity prices... a mistake.

Again my position for the bet is:

Self-reinforcing deflationary spiral WITH price increases in produced goods due to reductions in productive capacity & gold and silver go up as they are money par excellence.

"Self-reinforcing deflationary spiral WITH price increases in produced goods due to reductions in productive capacity & gold and silver go up as they are money par excellence"

If you can live with the above (and if we can find a good metric), YOU, my friend, have yourself a wager!:eek:

EDIT: (add) I have a date in mind. July 29 2011, my last day serving on Active Duty for the US Air Force. Will that work for you?

Do you accept?

no!

'Self-reinforcing deflationary spiral WITH price increases in produced goods due to reductions in productive capacity & gold and silver go up as they are money par excellence'

that is garbage mishmash gobbldigook nonsense bullshit.

if produced goods prices are rising it's due to inflation... i win the bet.

gold, silver, oil, etc. are rising trhough your 'deflation' in anticipation of future inflation.

if gold etc. continue to rise, it's due to inflation... i win the bet.

pick one! inflation or deflation. you can't have it both ways.

[jtabeb]

Re: Reposted comment from Birinyi thread. Head's up!

Look, that's why I suggest we have the MEMBERS decide who wins the bet, their anecdotal experiences will SURELY be able to find a clear cut answer.

You have my theory as to what will happen, what's yours? We'll let the mmbership decide who was more correct in two years time.

If you don't accept, what's your counter proposal?

Please note, you don't agree with my position, that I accept (DUH! that's why we are making a bet). BUT I will not change my stated position in the bet, because you don't like it. And the reason why it is carefully specified is because it is a complex dynamic. AND, I'm also not going to change my position because you are arguing for me do to so. (If you wanted that, go make a bet with yourself).

I made a prediction, what's yours, and let's settle the terms so we can get this party started.

BTW, (you know someone is on thin ice when they have to attack someone personally as in "Mishian". I'm excited, cause you either know you are wrong or you are chicken, so let sort out the details already, I can already visulaize that nice 2009 DE in my hands):p

[jtabeb]

Re: Reposted comment from Birinyi thread. Head's up!

no!



if produced goods prices are rising it's due to inflation... i win the bet.

quote]

NO!

Supply shock also produces rising prices and it NOT DUE TO INFLATION, IT'S DUE TO REDUCED SUPPLY.

Don't beleive me. Well here is one for you:

unit cost of procuding 600 F-22s = $150 Million,
unit cost of producing 150 F-22s = $600 million.

SAME TOTAL COST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! HELLO, anyone there?

(BTW this is taken from a real world example that I happen to be familiar with, numbers here are for illustration only but fit the actual data correlation well)

Is this inflation, NO, not unless you are an idiot.

It's due to the fact that the development costs are amoritized over a fewer number of units produced. That's how reduced supply causes a non-inflationary price increase. Same amount of money, more expensive unit costs due to fewer units produced. What Do you not understand about this simple concept?

No MISHIAN BULLSHIT HERE, it's called MATH, you should try it sometime!