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Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!
WDCRob - If you have been following the caricatured quotes of what I have suggested yes I've been portrayed as having made all sorts of calls "explicit to the day" apparently.
People like Metalman love to take what I suggest and routinely caricature the time windows this way and that (he claimed it was going to happen next week! And other such nonsense), so nothing matches. Lots of other suppositions go on to become "facts" in your mind, after the caricaturists have finished repeating them, like that I "lurch from newsletter to newsletter, while I've actually steadily maintained **four** for the past three years. Are you making this observation through your hat?
I got really fed up with the constant braying donkey Metalman misquotes of my main suggestions, and a few weeks back I collected in one post in a neat bullet list, all of my main suggestions about where we are and where I think we are going. I will try to dig it up and forward it to you for reference. Read it, and watch for confirmation or non confirmation **from that list alone** because I have a couple of people here who very enthusiastically engage in misquoting and caricaturing everything I say.
In fact WDCRob, I'm getting ******* sick and tired of that.
OK, I will reiterate this for you, and now you can make a note of it, without the archly caricaturing Metalman misquotes (that guy has done more to systematically and mischeviously misrepresent my suggestions than anyone).
My main suggestions, for the past *8 months or longer* has been that
A) the markets would bottom going into the March-April-May 2009 time period, and the economic situation in the US would appear remarkably more stabilized thereafter, and that we would see from there a steady and strong rise in the stock markets.
B) I also have suggested that after this spring, gold and the PM's would enter into a long cyclically weak period lasting a year and a half to two years. I have further suggested, that the USD would remain paradoxically quite strong going forward, and that it would ultimately sharply outstrip the EURO.
C) I have suggested that in 2011-2012 gold and silver begin to blast off, but not "right now" like all the helplessly goldbuggy people keep saying.
D) I have suggested that in the US, the nominal bottom in housing prices will materialize in 2009.
E) I have suggested that the USD will remain suprisingly strong, over as much as the next couple of years. I suggest also that at some point the EURO will descend to less than 80. US cents.
F) I have suggested that with a year's hindsight from now, we will clearly see that March 2009 marked THE LOW - in fact, that it has marked out a 60 year low, with a comparable last low in 1948-1949.
G) I have suggested that a year, or 18 months from now, we can look back and see the bottom was in, and the trajectory going forward will describe another parabolic bull run in the US stock indexes.
H) I've suggested per David Bensimon, that the oil price would collapse in 2008 then soar well past $100 going into 2010, then collapse again, only to rise very sharply to over $300 by the mid teens of this next decade. Please bear with me on this one, I have not checked the old posts and need to re-check those numbers and the calendar periods marked.
These suggestions are extremely clear, very unambiguous, very audacious (means risky - for me to make!!). There is very little "fudge" here at all.
____________
NOW. Please listen to what I am saying here and reflect on it. When the USD is rising smartly, and the markets are rising smartly, people here shut up about how "wrong and specious" I am on these calls. Then when the markets begin to sag ominously you guys begin to get all restless and fidgety and you smell blood and sally out with the foxhunt calls and the hunt dogs, insisting that this all "proves" that my suggestions have been completely specious.
But the point lost in all the hullabaloo, and the copious Metalman caricatures of my above suggestions, is that these are not trends that prove out in one week or the next week, or even the week after that. The markets gyrate very hard - we went from an environment a few weeks ago, of the markets and the USD soaring, while gold was plunging, and then just **a few weeks later** where the markets are looking ominously soft, the dollar is plunging, and gold is soaring.
Meantime, I am watching you guys, and every time we get one of those abrupt shifts in the weekly markets, people like Metalman start running around in noisy agitation braying "See? I told you! Lukester's suggestions are all wet, because exactly the opposite is happening!!".
This is NONSENSE. You can't discern any damn thing at all getting swayed violently from one extreme to the other like this. For you guys, every week's gyrations in the markets is "rock solid proof" of whatever trend that week is pointing in. You are getting led around by the nose with these market drection changes, and your emotional reaction to market ups and downs convinces you every month that "a new macro trend is emerging which totally disproves what Luke suggested".
Regarding Bensimon's calls on oil: It's certainly possible that Bensimon messed up his dates - but the larger point is the harshly spastic, violently up and down calls that he's made for the oil price action - to unfold in three distinct steps - but these calls have a **multi-year** timeline. You can't look at the price of oil every other week and say "see! Oil's not doing what Bensimon said, so he's an idiot!". To do that repeatedly is just puerile. You have to **wait** at least a couple of years, before you can clearly see the approximate correctness (or not) of his macro call.
The calls above are not just really clear and unambiguous - you may also consent to notice, that none of them "predicts" something that is going to occur "next week" or "next month". Got it?? So when you read all the denunciations of how specious my suggestions have been, look at the calendar, look at the calendar timeline of the above suggestions, and note that you still have a **couple of years** to wait for the broad outline of these things to prove out.
I'm really sick and tired of the myopic, week to week "verifications" which some of you so called hard-boiled skeptics (more like agitated people merely getting emotionally upset every time the markets take a savage swing) are employing here. They appear to me just plain stupid. Like you can't understand that anyone making a "prediction" about what's going to happen next week is an idiot. No serious forecasting goes that short. The serious suggestions are macro calls, that run for years, and take years to develop and ascertain.
Lastly, please really careful note of this, if you can get past the flatulence of Metalman's constant attempts to paint me with ridicule - In November of last year, I started posting multiple comments stating that March - April would be the turn window of note to watch. I stated categorically that "we would see a significant and remarkable transformation from there going forwards, and that in retrospect this would mark the lows". We are there now.
We have just passed that time period. Here is a chance for you to carefully track one of my larger suggestions to see if it turned out in hindsight to have any merit. I'm going to dig up a full DOZEN of my posts stretching back across the past six months clearly and explicitly calling for this point # F), as well as the other various explicit points, and I will post them below, for your inspection this weekend.
Now WAIT. Just WAIT and WATCH, to see how this one suggestion works out, by the end of 2009. If I turn out completely vindicated, then please have the good grace and honesty to come back to this post and acknowledge it to me explicitly. I am quite confident of my general outlook on this point, and I expect to be fully vindicated on this question. My question rather is whether people like Metalman will have the honesty to step forward and acknowledge ANY of the above forecasts if they materialise.
I think forecast number F) is on track to pan out no problem. But you guys need to abandon the puerile, every-other-week updates on the speciousness of Lukester suggestions and give it until the end of 2009 to recognize point # F was right the f234k on the money!!
You wrote: "You just carry on with a full-throated defense of whatever shiny new analysis caught your eye that day"
You guys are giving me a real headache. But it is not of the serious questions variety. It is of the specious questions variety.
___________
WDCRob - If you have been following the caricatured quotes of what I have suggested yes I've been portrayed as having made all sorts of calls "explicit to the day" apparently.
People like Metalman love to take what I suggest and routinely caricature the time windows this way and that (he claimed it was going to happen next week! And other such nonsense), so nothing matches. Lots of other suppositions go on to become "facts" in your mind, after the caricaturists have finished repeating them, like that I "lurch from newsletter to newsletter, while I've actually steadily maintained **four** for the past three years. Are you making this observation through your hat?
I got really fed up with the constant braying donkey Metalman misquotes of my main suggestions, and a few weeks back I collected in one post in a neat bullet list, all of my main suggestions about where we are and where I think we are going. I will try to dig it up and forward it to you for reference. Read it, and watch for confirmation or non confirmation **from that list alone** because I have a couple of people here who very enthusiastically engage in misquoting and caricaturing everything I say.
In fact WDCRob, I'm getting ******* sick and tired of that.
OK, I will reiterate this for you, and now you can make a note of it, without the archly caricaturing Metalman misquotes (that guy has done more to systematically and mischeviously misrepresent my suggestions than anyone).
My main suggestions, for the past *8 months or longer* has been that
A) the markets would bottom going into the March-April-May 2009 time period, and the economic situation in the US would appear remarkably more stabilized thereafter, and that we would see from there a steady and strong rise in the stock markets.
B) I also have suggested that after this spring, gold and the PM's would enter into a long cyclically weak period lasting a year and a half to two years. I have further suggested, that the USD would remain paradoxically quite strong going forward, and that it would ultimately sharply outstrip the EURO.
C) I have suggested that in 2011-2012 gold and silver begin to blast off, but not "right now" like all the helplessly goldbuggy people keep saying.
D) I have suggested that in the US, the nominal bottom in housing prices will materialize in 2009.
E) I have suggested that the USD will remain suprisingly strong, over as much as the next couple of years. I suggest also that at some point the EURO will descend to less than 80. US cents.
F) I have suggested that with a year's hindsight from now, we will clearly see that March 2009 marked THE LOW - in fact, that it has marked out a 60 year low, with a comparable last low in 1948-1949.
G) I have suggested that a year, or 18 months from now, we can look back and see the bottom was in, and the trajectory going forward will describe another parabolic bull run in the US stock indexes.
H) I've suggested per David Bensimon, that the oil price would collapse in 2008 then soar well past $100 going into 2010, then collapse again, only to rise very sharply to over $300 by the mid teens of this next decade. Please bear with me on this one, I have not checked the old posts and need to re-check those numbers and the calendar periods marked.
These suggestions are extremely clear, very unambiguous, very audacious (means risky - for me to make!!). There is very little "fudge" here at all.
____________
NOW. Please listen to what I am saying here and reflect on it. When the USD is rising smartly, and the markets are rising smartly, people here shut up about how "wrong and specious" I am on these calls. Then when the markets begin to sag ominously you guys begin to get all restless and fidgety and you smell blood and sally out with the foxhunt calls and the hunt dogs, insisting that this all "proves" that my suggestions have been completely specious.
But the point lost in all the hullabaloo, and the copious Metalman caricatures of my above suggestions, is that these are not trends that prove out in one week or the next week, or even the week after that. The markets gyrate very hard - we went from an environment a few weeks ago, of the markets and the USD soaring, while gold was plunging, and then just **a few weeks later** where the markets are looking ominously soft, the dollar is plunging, and gold is soaring.
Meantime, I am watching you guys, and every time we get one of those abrupt shifts in the weekly markets, people like Metalman start running around in noisy agitation braying "See? I told you! Lukester's suggestions are all wet, because exactly the opposite is happening!!".
This is NONSENSE. You can't discern any damn thing at all getting swayed violently from one extreme to the other like this. For you guys, every week's gyrations in the markets is "rock solid proof" of whatever trend that week is pointing in. You are getting led around by the nose with these market drection changes, and your emotional reaction to market ups and downs convinces you every month that "a new macro trend is emerging which totally disproves what Luke suggested".
Regarding Bensimon's calls on oil: It's certainly possible that Bensimon messed up his dates - but the larger point is the harshly spastic, violently up and down calls that he's made for the oil price action - to unfold in three distinct steps - but these calls have a **multi-year** timeline. You can't look at the price of oil every other week and say "see! Oil's not doing what Bensimon said, so he's an idiot!". To do that repeatedly is just puerile. You have to **wait** at least a couple of years, before you can clearly see the approximate correctness (or not) of his macro call.
The calls above are not just really clear and unambiguous - you may also consent to notice, that none of them "predicts" something that is going to occur "next week" or "next month". Got it?? So when you read all the denunciations of how specious my suggestions have been, look at the calendar, look at the calendar timeline of the above suggestions, and note that you still have a **couple of years** to wait for the broad outline of these things to prove out.
I'm really sick and tired of the myopic, week to week "verifications" which some of you so called hard-boiled skeptics (more like agitated people merely getting emotionally upset every time the markets take a savage swing) are employing here. They appear to me just plain stupid. Like you can't understand that anyone making a "prediction" about what's going to happen next week is an idiot. No serious forecasting goes that short. The serious suggestions are macro calls, that run for years, and take years to develop and ascertain.
Lastly, please really careful note of this, if you can get past the flatulence of Metalman's constant attempts to paint me with ridicule - In November of last year, I started posting multiple comments stating that March - April would be the turn window of note to watch. I stated categorically that "we would see a significant and remarkable transformation from there going forwards, and that in retrospect this would mark the lows". We are there now.
We have just passed that time period. Here is a chance for you to carefully track one of my larger suggestions to see if it turned out in hindsight to have any merit. I'm going to dig up a full DOZEN of my posts stretching back across the past six months clearly and explicitly calling for this point # F), as well as the other various explicit points, and I will post them below, for your inspection this weekend.
Now WAIT. Just WAIT and WATCH, to see how this one suggestion works out, by the end of 2009. If I turn out completely vindicated, then please have the good grace and honesty to come back to this post and acknowledge it to me explicitly. I am quite confident of my general outlook on this point, and I expect to be fully vindicated on this question. My question rather is whether people like Metalman will have the honesty to step forward and acknowledge ANY of the above forecasts if they materialise.
I think forecast number F) is on track to pan out no problem. But you guys need to abandon the puerile, every-other-week updates on the speciousness of Lukester suggestions and give it until the end of 2009 to recognize point # F was right the f234k on the money!!
You wrote: "You just carry on with a full-throated defense of whatever shiny new analysis caught your eye that day"
You guys are giving me a real headache. But it is not of the serious questions variety. It is of the specious questions variety.
___________
Originally posted by WDCRob
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