Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

[Chomsky]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

For Christ's sake Lukester, you've reiterated this "the egg will be on our faces if the market soars" challenge a thousand times already -- it is your intention to splatter every last thread on iTulip with this recycled verbal diarrhea?

We get it man. Market goes up, god damn, that Lukester sure was smart, he called it, what a guy.

[metalman]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

I would agree if that were the case. But Lukester's posts have become much like the undergraduate papers I must slog through at this time of year; rather than providing analysis and developing his argument in a systematic fashion, Lukester relies on a few selected resources and continues to spew out the same argument with different words, relying upon someone else's research and analysis. (Yes, many of us rely on EJ's research and analysis in the same manner, but I for one do not go to other websites and trumpet his views.) Then Lukester says, "What if I am right and EJ is wrong?" over and over again, while failing to respond to what EJ actually says.

there's a name for that... trolling.

Lukester also accuses everyone on iTulip of group think, which is really an insult to our intelligence. I would say that just about everyone here is capable of weighing the merits of Lukester's arguments against those of EJ's arguments. We are not following EJ blindly, nor would he ask that we do so. We are evaluating his analysis and his arguments and have found them to be quite insightful. I for one have saved tens of thousands of dollars by following some of the advice gleaned from these pages. There are also individuals such as Bart and others that have arrived at the same conclusions through their own analysis and often provide supporting data. This is a far cry from group think.

if paid by an itulip competitor to troll itulip or just a misguided hothead intellectual... then it's 'group think'.

So, unfortunately, Lukester's arguments have become a bit tiresome, especially as he is not developing his own argument in the same methodical way that EJ has, but is instead reasserting someone else's arguments over and over again.

fred, ej... please... more effective management. we pay for it.

[WDCRob]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Stocks down 3% vs gold since Luke's last call.

[Guest]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Why do you feel indignant merely because someone posts a suggestion that the stock market could stage a big rally? Do you fear that iTulipers are not competent to make independent decisions, about whether they are in it or out of it? Think that someone posting such views is being "irresponsible and dangerously misleading"? :rolleyes:

Do you fear that readers could "come to grievous harm" if they actually read through just a few arguments suggesting the markets may surprise and go against an iTulip call? :p How patronising is that, buddy? Look at this - here's a perfectly good thread inquiring into that possibility, which gets shunted to "rant and rave" because the moderator, along with 98% of the readers, decided it was "merely specious".

How many other specious posts in "news" don't get shunted to rant and rave, to the sound of general applause from the more groupie-minded ones here? Lots of other posts sit right there in news, although they are marginal. Meanwhile this one got a thousand reads in one day, but it "qualifies" for dumping in "rant and rave". If you can't smell some tripe there, your nose is not functioning.

[metalman]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Why do you feel indignant merely because someone posts a suggestion that the stock market could stage a big rally? Do you fear that iTulipers are not competent to make independent decisions, about whether they are in it or out of it? Think that someone posting such views is being "irresponsible and dangerously misleading"? :rolleyes:

Do you fear that readers could "come to grievous harm" if they actually read through just a few arguments suggesting the markets may surprise and go against an iTulip call? :p How patronising is that, buddy? Look at this - here's a perfectly good thread inquiring into that possibility, which gets shunted to "rant and rave" because the moderator, along with 98% of the readers, decided it was "merely specious".

How many other specious posts in "news" don't get shunted to rant and rave, to the sound of general applause from the more groupie-minded ones here? Lots of other posts sit right there in news, although they are marginal. Meanwhile this one got a thousand reads in one day, but it "qualifies" for dumping in "rant and rave". If you can't smell some tripe there, your nose is not functioning.

Debt Deflation Bear Market: First Bounce

are we done?

[flintlock]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

I've been a jerk at times and maybe am on everyone's ignore list, but jeez no one has commented on that quote that I posted from Birinyi's companies blog?

In the Spring of 2007, they were publicly MOCKING the idea that housing was a bubble.

I caught that. But bringing it to Lukesters attention would be like kicking a puppy.

[Guest]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Ah, just give it up with the cute metaphors Flintlock. I'm nobody's puppy to kick, else they are going to glance down and find their leg gone in short order. And please get this much if nothing else - the DOW bull market run is MY CALL.

I made this call six months before Birinyi.

I am no analyst, but after getting basted and marinaded in all of the clay-footed, ceremonial spear rattling, tribally-oriented, iTulip orthodoxy-regurgitating objections on this thread, I do OWN THIS CALL.

Meanwhile, I have no idea whether Birinyi validates it, is a contrarian signal against it, or whether he washes his mother's bloomers devotedly on Sunday while meditating on it.

Now - who's derriere do I get to kick, or whose leg does this puppy get to chew off leaving a raw stump a year from now, if you guys all turn out wrong, and my call turns out correct?

Go on, put yer "family jewels" on the butcher block, right here please. I got the blunt cleaver all ready.

I caught that. But bringing it to Lukesters attention would be like kicking a puppy.

[Basil]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Stocks down 3% vs gold since Luke's last call.

Which last call? The one in December when he called for a big drop in Gold?

[Guest]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

fred, ej... please... more effective management. we pay for it.

Jeez Metalman -

This thread was moved to Rant and Rave. Yet look at you guys, all puffed out in the chest and agitated with righteousness, because I don't cave in to a chorus of your objections. - This thread, with an opening post by Birinyi who is somewhat more reputable than Mish or Ackerman - has already been moved much earlier in it's discussion, when the discussion was more calm, to Rant and Rave - and for you, it can't be permitted to remain even here?

You already are a guy who is fond of invoking Fred at the drop of a hat. Have you noticed just how often you "invoke the police" to enforce your preferred viewpoint?

Why is that? Even if I were flat wrong - why can't I merely post my own opinion here without having you exhorting a moderator to ban my comments altogether? I don't like the way you seek to "invoke" general opinion here against my posted views. I don't like your style in general here Metalman - seems smarmy to me. I'm a troll according to you, for starting my own thread, to post my own views here, because you find them "detrimental to this community" even when they have been consigned to rant and rave?

Pardon my language, and you know, I really don't use schatological terms except to crack a joke once in a while, but who the fuck are you to define this thread's theme as troll spam? 2009 isn't over yet, is it? You might have to chomp on some singularly noxious poop if the markets are net-up sharply in 12-18 months after all this chest-puffing of yours to the contrary.

I'll tell you this much - after all of your righteous bleating here, with the smarmy moderator invocations thrown in, I'll be there to ensure that you tuck into that poop with gusto if we get this market surprise. People are allowed to post their own views on the markets outcome freely here, even if they are flat wrong, last time I checked, within the parameters I have observed on this thread.

I have never asked, in 2 years and 4000+ posts, that any other poster's comments be "suppressed" here. Not once. You sure do that a lot though, eh? I notice that you, Metalman, lean on this crutch quite often. I don't like this crutch, and the people who freely like to blow on the policeman's whistle emanate something that makes me feel a little claustrophobic and nauseous.

I particularly don't admire the people that feel free to employ this often. I'm against their encouragement of this practice among others here, and I definitely don't like the kind of place this would turn into if more people began to employ Metalman's ever vigilant Policeman's crutch. He wants to ban "unacceptable forecasts" on the premise that they are misleading, before they have been proved to be so.

[Guest]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Don't like this thread? Go someplace else! Why are you hanging around here if my posts are so noxious to you?

Metalman wants to get this thread suppressed. Having it dumped in rant and rave was not good enough for him. He is chafing - doing his little self-appointed cop routine? You know, with the puffed out chest and the righteousness about keeping up iTulip content standards?

You fellows really are starting to get a little shirty, aren't you?

Will all the officious types who feel the urge to police their brethren here, please take a hike? Just go away. Or take a laxative.

[c1ue]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Lukester...

And another thing - I see no update to your US Dollar index exceeding 100 prediction - what about your prediction last year of $200 oil? Or was it $300 oil?

Sure, oil has gone up some 50% from its lows at the beginning of the year - but I'm still quite in doubt about the next 300% to 500% gain.

The classic charlatan's tactic: spew in all directions but point to the correct few as proof of predictive capability.

[*T*]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

In the Spring of 2007, they were publicly MOCKING the idea that housing was a bubble.

Because your observation spoke for itself.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

I reckon ww3 is their final trump card to keep themselves in power.

Good chance you're right, in my view, on all you said. I like your use of the word "fascist" -- it fits.

The other way out that I figure has a good chance of happening is if China is able to gain enough control over the politics and economy of the United States that they can subordinate us to their ends without resorting to major war.

China could use our food, our land, our natural wealth and our military technology. If you subtract out the 2/3's of their land that (while making awesome National Geographic pictures) is seriously inhospitable (such as the Gobi dessert) then they are rather cramped in their current geography.

Keep a close eye on further moves to create alternatives to the dollar for international commerce. Also keep a close eye on efforts of Russia and China to provide alternative "security services" to the Saudi and other Arab royalty.

[*T*]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Dude - where do you get the idea that I am confusing a nominally rising DOW with a DOW rising in real inflation adjusted dollars? Maybe if you could get past the assumption that the person you are discussing this with is plug-stupid, we could get past this large pothole in the road we seem to be sitting in. Alarum, alarum! iTulip "standing axioms" are being impugned! Time to call out the Swiss Guard to "defend" the Papacy!

Lukester dear chap,

I don't think there is an iTulip "orthodoxy". There is EJ's view, and there are other views too, including yours. While I happen to think nominal stock indices will go down from here before going up, I really don't care. What I do care about it the best capital allocation.

I am mostly in gold. I had a brief play on the long side in solar stocks, which I have sold, because I think I will be able to buy them back cheaper. I see better risk-adjusted returns holding gold than stocks, because I don't think a high inflation environment is good for businesses. High inflation may benefit debtors at best. Corporate debt is not so much a problem as household debt.

I ask one question which trumps all: how are you allocated?

This will give me more information about your thinking than your opinion whether some meaningless number is higher or lower in the far future.

t

[Guest]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

*T* - glad to respond to someone who is not squirming with indignation that a Laszlo Birinyi post could be permitted to besmirch these fine pages.

I have been fully allocated into gold and silver, including some (by now) higher premium Euro gold coins with about 50% of my assets for six years. Sold some of that off recently on a thesis I have about the next two years. It was my first ever sale, and a substantial one. Got stuffed to the gills with boxes of silver eagles mostly in 2004, and some in 2006 and have kept all of that stuff without any inclination to sell it. Bensimon tells me I've got an appointment with $160 silver out in mid to late part of next decade, and that's good enough for me. Then I bought a largish lot of very small gold coins also back in 2004 - mostly Russian 5 and 10 Ruble pieces, and a bunch of Scandinavian Kronors).

For five years I just sat on all of it. Then I sold off a chunk of kilo bar bullion silver earlier this year abroad to free up some cash. I had a quite large position in the PM's relative to all assets, so even after the sale I keep a substantial exposure to the bullion metal. I owned a portfolio of uranium and oil gas, and coal stocks, with a couple of PM stocks, bought in 2003 - 2004 and sold out into 2006-2007. I sold all this stuff in several tranches, starting in late 2006 on my own hunch, and the final tranche on EJ's all out sell signal in late 2007. I was entirely in cash going into this bear market in Jan 2008, but I had a very large position in silver which jerked me around hard.

Sold half the (overweight) silver position to reduce my overall PM exposure at the top of the recent bounce to 14.60 or so, just a little above where it is now. I have started positions in newly purchased uranium which were part of an old 2003-2007 portfolio, so I'm *slowly* climbing back in. I plan to deploy into one or two energy sector European funds but have deferred that due to other obligations right now. Some midcap energy shares are my next item, and I'm looking for a significant retest of last march as my entry point. According to iTulip I will have it handed to me in spades. ... And then some.

I have about sixty percent of total assets in cash, mostly over in the EU, in USD, which my banker advisor (nice chap) has been remorselessly working on me to sell because he thinks I'd be better off in Euros! :eek: :rolleyes: I am firmly resisting his suggestions on that account however.

So I already have a portfolio all "tuned out" and ready to redeploy into when I'm ready to hit the go button seriously. I think I had / have two opportunities to deploy early into this market if it's going to materialise as a new bull. First opportunity was March / April, without a doubt an extremely low risk point for this reader. Second opportunity may be this summer or going into the fall. We have to re-test the March lows in a large move before a final bottom is confirmed. So a conservative strategy would be to sit tight and look really carefully at the next serious market swoon - then take a bead from that back to the past march 2009, to see what it spells out for the next few years.

If the next low is clearly above the just passed one, as far as I'm concerned we have just navigated through the sixty year cycle low, as this market collapse was easily big enough to be the "echo" of 1948-1949. I think it's going to be headed up in a notable way, and due to the extent of that rise spanning several years, a quite small amount of cash today can buy you a substantial piece of the game two to three years out.

As for those few other posters here today suggesting this thread should be squelched as "inappropriate", I think that their entire display of raging allergy to Birinyi's thesis was merely pathetic. It reminds me of tribesmen huddling around the fire at night, staying close to what is familiar and "proved". These people, indignant of a "bull market without economic fundamentals" (as though we've ever even had any fundamentally sound bull market in the US in the past 25 years!) are the the ones who will be "intrigued" by the alt energy shares (read "uranium") three or five years out, when it is red-hot, and has gone thoroughly mainstream - and I hope sincerely to have the privilege to be selling my shares to them.

The "iTulip orthodoxy" is a less from the editorial side, than it is from one or two of the members here, as this thread's reactive comments illustrate. BTW, my latest appellation is "charlatan", and I have one other slightly over-enthusiastic recent iTulip priest-acolyte, who is keen to come down here with a boot to plant in my rear. Hmm. That is some orthodoxy speaking out there. Looks fit to blow a fuse, when confronted with Laszlo Birinyi's comments.

Cheers. (nice chatting with a civilized and agnostic British poster here - thanks also to LargoWinch, "le Gentillhomme Français." who has maintained a cordial tone).