Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

[BadJuju]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

I do not think there is anything wrong with Lukester sharing his thoughts, regardless of how controversial they may be here. He is an intelligent man that devotes a lot of time to defending his position with articulate arguments.

[BadJuju]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

I fear we are on the road to a finance/real economy dislocation, and so ww3 is inevitable.

Man I've gone and doomed myself there again.

How do get WW3 from economic dislocation? Pretty large leap there, sirrah. :3

[Guest]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Labasta is in a doomish frame of mind this week (he's in his "brown study" where we're gonna get WWIII regardless). Never insistently question an Irishman. They march to their own drummer, always. Confession: My heart would melt with gladness to be able to live there, rather than here. IMO a depression will have more "style" in Ireland, than here in Southern California.

[allenjs]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Really? Where are all these posts I've missed the past year "predicting a large runup in the nominal value of the markets"? And were they explicitly referring to the next year or two, or were they kicking this can down the road "a few years" from now? BTW you'll be pleased to know that I did manage to read my ABC basics on Poom vs. Bull Market - back in 2007.

OK, but I am having a difficult time believing that you really understood the iTulip thesis when you insist on confusing nominal gains with a "bull market". It's nothing personal; I am just trying to keep us focused on the only point that matters.

The iTulip thesis, against which you claimed to be contrarian, is that the markets will continue to do poorly in *real* terms, but the massive increase in money supply will result in inflation and make the *nominal* indicators useless. This is the whole point behind the "Real DOW" chart that is at the upper right of the home page, and which is posted so frequently by Fred and EJ.

Anyone who could have heard the repeated and dire warnings about inflation and helicopters and printing presses yet not translated that to "nominal" gains, is not really understanding, IMO. EJ has repeated ad nauseum that the government will do anything to give the appearance of numbers moving upward, even if it's only nominal, and actually not moving upward in real terms.

In any case, you shouldn't expect Fred or EJ to make predictions about nominal targets for the market, since: A) real targets are what matter, and B) iTulip isn't about "timing the markets". I perfectly understand that there are lots of people here who try to "time the markets". Gambling is addictive and fun, and I don't knock people who do it. But don't confuse that with the "iTulip thesis".

Let's ask the question another way -- what exactly about the iTulip thesis do you feel to be wrong? Please be specific when citing EJ's statements, and rebut them in terms that match (no apples-to-oranges comparison). Otherwise, it feels like you are setting up a straw man and just confusing everyone.

[Guest]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Dude - where do you get the idea that I am confusing a nominally rising DOW with a DOW rising in real inflation adjusted dollars? Maybe if you could get past the assumption that the person you are discussing this with is plug-stupid, we could get past this large pothole in the road we seem to be sitting in. Alarum, alarum! iTulip "standing axioms" are being impugned! Time to call out the Swiss Guard to "defend" the Papacy!

[labasta]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

How do get WW3 from economic dislocation? Pretty large leap there, sirrah. :3

Yeah, I doomed myself there a bit too much.

I reckon ww3 is their final trump card to keep themselves in power. Themselves being the people who run the country(s) who are the banks. Before the currency defaults (i.e. too many dollars (any paper currency) sloshing around and no demand), they'll create this governmental/corporate demand for it by going to war. It will mean a completely shitty standard of living for us all, but heh, the banks will still be creating debt.

IMO, at the moment, all this bailout stuff is the banks desperately trying to keep themselves afloat (read in power) by devaluing the countries medium of exchange. If the country's currency is not strong enough to keep the banks in power, then the banks lose and the black economy (real economy) takes over (hyperinflation). A black market economy is one without banks.

I do not believe the rulers of our countries will stop no matter how bad it gets for the real economy, but they won't let hyperinflation occur. Hence my pessimistic tone. It is the end of democracy in other words (or the pretense of it at least). Fascism is where we are at and where we are headed.

I may be wrong in that the banks' power wanes soon enough for democracy to triumph (read debt reduction, i.e. bankruptcy) and a rebuilding can occur, but I'm not so sure.

The banks have to get inline with the real economy and support it. They aren't doing this. They are devaluing the country to keep their gigantic size (debt) alive and are NOT supporting the real economy.

We will know in the coming years how entrenched the banks are in the world power system. How far does the rabbit hole go? Right to the top I fear.


That's my very basic layman view of things. Hopefully, debt reduction will occur before the tragedy happens, be that hyperinflation or ww3. Is there a third way to create demand for money (debt)? Maybe there is and I haven't thought of it yet. Maybe you know of a few other options available.

:confused:

[flintlock]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Lukester, I have you down in my book as Bullish on the stock market, check. It's official.

Boy, people get rude when you have a different opinion don't they?

Put me down on the record as saying this latest flutter has about reached its peak, even in nominal terms. The bad news is going to just keep coming in and people who got burned bad last fall haven't forgotten the nasty sting they got. I Expect the Dow to bounce back and forth between 7500 and 8500 all summer, then nose dive in the fall. Again.

I agree that people are chomping at the bit to get back in the market, and a lot will, but a lot also want to see some real proof things are turning around first. The BS headlines saying basically, "Things really suck but they suck a little less than the previous month" are not encouraging no matter how hard the pundits want them to be.

I think commodities may be the new "real estate", albeit a much smaller mini-bubble. After the dotcom bust people who got burned were looking for "real" things to invest in, so they poured into real estate. This time round it may be oil, PMs, copper, etc that gets the nod from the masses as they seek something they feel is safer or something they understand better.

[metalman]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Lukester,

Sorry to be so blunt, but STFU. This was already asked and answered.

You can keep saying "but what if I'm right and EJ is wrong" all you want and it doesn't change anything. We are subscribers here because of EJ, not because of you so when I see EJ start a post with "At the risk of belaboring a point made 100 times here over 11 years", I get very nervous and worried. Many on this site are frustrated with you and you have made it very clear that you don't care. Fair enough, I can respect that. But, when EJ starts to show some frustration, that bothers me. If you ruin this INVALUABLE source of information for the rest of us, I will personally come to San Diego with one big boot looking for one big ass.

I'm not threatening, I'm speaking rhetorically to make a very important point...please back-off and please recognize that this is not the best site to belabor your views.

glad you said this, but fred et al need to jump in here.

luke, love your spirit but at times you're like the guy at the weekly staff/marketing/engineering meeting who keeps bringing up the the same pet idea over and over that the team shot down in other meetings. you say, 'why don't we make a bull market doodah'? the manager says, 'ok, luke. what's your idea' to be politcally correct even though the idea on the face of it ain't so good, and your fellow employees know it and roll their eyes. you go on and explain your idea, the team hashes it over... for like five minutes... and decides... nah, not going to do that.

then, next meeting, it's the same friggin thing. 'hey, why don't we make a bull market doodah'.

everyone groans. the manager says, 'luke, didn't we all decide last week as a team that this is not the direction we want to go in?' and you say yes.

then, next meeting, it's the same friggin thing again. 'hey, why don't we make a bull market doodah'?

at this point the manager ought to pull you aside and say, 'listen up. we ain't making a stupid friggin bull doodah here' and the whole team breathes a sigh of relief.

why is the bull market doo dah a bad idea? how many times does it have to be explained to you? here it is again....

no bull market without sustained economic growth.

no sustained growth without politically painful restructuring... debt written off, oligarchs tossed out, etc.

rallies? shit, yeh!

Debt Deflation Bear Market: First Bounce

grab a glove! get in the game!

[Guest]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

"Three year long rallies? Shit yeah! You know, the ones that happen every other week, with a near doubling of the S&P - why heck they're a dime a dozen." :rolleyes:

Laszlo Birinyi is like one of those stupid mutt dogs without a half a dog-brain - stupid mutt likes to chase car tires, right? One of those dumbass "tire-biter-dogs"? That's his bread and butter, chasing car tires - so he can retain all of his old money customers and win lots of new ones. :p :p ...

fred et al need to jump in here. ... 'hey, why don't we make a bull market doodah' ... manager ought to pull you aside and say, 'listen up. we ain't making a stupid friggin bull doodah here' ... (bear market) rallies? shit, yeh!

[Basil]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

I do not think there is anything wrong with Lukester sharing his thoughts, regardless of how controversial they may be here. He is an intelligent man that devotes a lot of time to defending his position with articulate arguments.

I would agree if that were the case. But Lukester's posts have become much like the undergraduate papers I must slog through at this time of year; rather than providing analysis and developing his argument in a systematic fashion, Lukester relies on a few selected resources and continues to spew out the same argument with different words, relying upon someone else's research and analysis. (Yes, many of us rely on EJ's research and analysis in the same manner, but I for one do not go to other websites and trumpet his views.) Then Lukester says, "What if I am right and EJ is wrong?" over and over again, while failing to respond to what EJ actually says.

Lukester also accuses everyone on iTulip of group think, which is really an insult to our intelligence. I would say that just about everyone here is capable of weighing the merits of Lukester's arguments against those of EJ's arguments. We are not following EJ blindly, nor would he ask that we do so. We are evaluating his analysis and his arguments and have found them to be quite insightful. I for one have saved tens of thousands of dollars by following some of the advice gleaned from these pages. There are also individuals such as Bart and others that have arrived at the same conclusions through their own analysis and often provide supporting data. This is a far cry from group think.

So, unfortunately, Lukester's arguments have become a bit tiresome, especially as he is not developing his own argument in the same methodical way that EJ has, but is instead reasserting someone else's arguments over and over again.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Lukester,

Sorry to be so blunt, but STFU. This was already asked and answered.

You can keep saying "but what if I'm right and EJ is wrong" all you want and it doesn't change anything. We are subscribers here because of EJ, not because of you so when I see EJ start a post with "At the risk of belaboring a point made 100 times here over 11 years", I get very nervous and worried. Many on this site are frustrated with you and you have made it very clear that you don't care. Fair enough, I can respect that. But, when EJ starts to show some frustration, that bothers me. If you ruin this INVALUABLE source of information for the rest of us, I will personally come to San Diego with one big boot looking for one big ass.

I'm not threatening, I'm speaking rhetorically to make a very important point...please back-off and please recognize that this is not the best site to belabor your views.

rjwrj;

#1:

STFU

At what point do you feel the need to use that language? Nothing warrants it in my view and nowhere in all this argument insult were made, until you made your comments.

#2: FRED do not have to reply to posts and he can defend himself alright (I am not nervous).

#3:

this is not the best site to belabor your views.

I have no problem with that, when it is done correctly. So I have to disagree with your comment.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

If we get a year or 18 months out from now, and the markets are significantly net up in the US, would it be too much to ask that you plainly and clearly acknowledge that you'd suggested, and many iTulipers were reflecting in their posts, the assumption that the markets would remain moribund "for years" back in the winter of 2008/2009?

[..]

It is about whether in a year to 18 months, the markets will be sharply net up or not, and if they are net up, it will become apparent that iTulip was nowhere near calling this past March as the nominal low.

You should define both "significantly and "net up" for the purpose of this exercise, otherwise we might be all just be flapping gums.

For example, if over the next eighteen months, the DJIA drops to 5500, but by the end of the eighteenth month, is up to 8800, do you claim this as a victory? And if don't like that choice of words just substitute something else for victory. It is not meant to convey anything about you.

Why was no one on iTulip talking about a potential sustained rise in the equity bourses in North America as a direct aftermath of the recent crash? Whether that rise were nominal or real, is a completely moot point to the real question - the real question is, why was virtually no-one actively suggesting in the last half of 2008, and going into this summer, that a brisk rally in any part of the indexes would be possible right on the heels of the collapse? Everyone took their cue from iTulip, who suggested this "might be possible" further down the road.

Pure speculation on my part, but I'd guess that you're correct that most people (myself included) did not expect to see, using your words here - a new extended bull run in the US and world stock indexes right on the heels of the collapse. That is the ultimate in contrarianism. What is so surprising about this? Real markets are still collapsing as we speak!

Also, whether that rise were real or nominal is not moot because some people will tell you that the potential lack of real returns is keeping them out of the stock markets.

[Guest]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

duplicate post

[Guest]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

So, unfortunately, Lukester's arguments have become a bit tiresome, especially as he is not developing his own argument in the same methodical way that EJ has, but is instead reasserting someone else's arguments over and over again.

Basil, will you concede this for a pompous reply if the S&P is significantly higher by end of year? Or how about when it's 30% higher than today - are your comments moored by any accountability, where your cavalier and expansively confident expectations meet the real market 12 or 18 months from now?

Your objection - "he does not elaborate his arguments in a sufficiently methodical way", is an objection you could level at any number of other iTulipers. You level it at me only because it flags your "parsing filter" which is set to flag any posts suggesting outcomes in diametric opposition to iTulip calls.

Whenever people take that slightly limp wristed lofty tone with me, (a.k.a. - "fatigues me, like grading my student's papers", as you put it) I tend to dig in my heels and generally just give them a pass.

You have climbed out on a branch here, and you will look a little foolish in this statment in a year's time if the market is rising sharply. You wing it this same conjectural seat-of-the-pants way, when grading those hapless student's papers as well?

You are calling my suggestions foolish, and also are implying Birinyi is merelyfoolish. Do you happen to know the outcome of this stock market event, or are you just mouthing off here? If you don't know the outcome, how can you reliably rate my suggestion as merely "tiresome"?

[Slimprofits]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

"Three year long rallies? Shit yeah! You know, the ones that happen every other week, with a near doubling of the S&P - why heck they're a dime a dozen." :rolleyes:

Laszlo Birinyi is like one of those stupid mutt dogs without a half a dog-brain - stupid mutt likes to chase car tires, right? One of those dumbass "tire-biter-dogs"? That's his bread and butter, chasing car tires - so he can retain all of his old money customers and win lots of new ones. :p :p ...

I've been a jerk at times and maybe am on everyone's ignore list, but jeez no one has commented on that quote that I posted from Birinyi's companies blog?

In the Spring of 2007, they were publicly MOCKING the idea that housing was a bubble.