Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

[flintlock]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Ah, just give it up with the cute metaphors Flintlock. I'm nobody's puppy to kick, else they are going to glance down and find their leg gone in short order. And please get this much if nothing else - the DOW bull market run is MY CALL.

I made this call six months before Birinyi.

I am no analyst, but after getting basted and marinaded in all of the clay-footed, ceremonial spear rattling, tribally-oriented, iTulip orthodoxy-regurgitating objections on this thread, I do OWN THIS CALL.

Meanwhile, I have no idea whether Birinyi validates it, is a contrarian signal against it, or whether he washes his mother's bloomers devotedly on Sunday while meditating on it.

Now - who's derriere do I get to kick, or whose leg does this puppy get to chew off leaving a raw stump a year from now, if you guys all turn out wrong, and my call turns out correct?

Go on, put yer "family jewels" on the butcher block, right here please. I got the blunt cleaver all ready.

Depends what you call a bull market. I think that will be looked upon as a blip on the screen a year from now. But yes, Lukester, you called it. Congrats.

[Guest]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Babbittd -

I fully comprehend your irritation at my topic, and at how I phrased it.

At this point it does not make sense to expel too much more hot air on this one direction or the other, for the simple fact that the validation is in the future, right? If I might observe the point, there is a little bit of history here of iTulip having been a little bit "cavalier" with a few other analysts as well (as per Peak Cheap Oil, and the many fine analysts in that community who werre first ridiculed, and then cited without rehabilitation by iTulip in 2007). It's certainly a minor point, but it's there. Hence what you mis-represent as as my "indignation". Irritation would be a better word for my sentiment, at the casual swat of the wrist which the likes of Barton Biggs receives when he substantiates Birinyi's thesis here.

Also left unanswered is the simple question of what your retrospective comment may be if in 18 months the thesis of this thread is 100% validated? What if from that vantage point, we can look back and spot clearly that March 2009 marked a definitive low, and the rise from there in North American indexes (ground zero of EJ's debt destruction) fulfills every similarity to a bull run? :eek: Do I get to employ a bit of condescension in your regard too? Actually, you can be assured that I would not. I hold all your posts in high regard. But if I did, the difference would be, that I was employing the condescension in full and due course, when the market had undeniably validated my thesis, while you (and a notable cohort of others here apparently) are employing the condescension a little too early. ;)

Lukester, you're a funny guy.

You post a schoolyard level taunt complete with name dropping aimed at EJ, the Freds and 90-97% of the regular posters. There is nothing by the way of NEW analysis or reasoning to back up the prediction in the post, just a re-hash of prior recent predictions.

What kind of response were you expecting?

Cue up the righteous indignation, the victim card and the world's tiniest violin!

[Tulpen]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Laszlo Birinyi calls it.......

Enough said!

This man is a permabull with charts.
He is obviously affiliated with "banksters".

[Guest]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Tulpen - you are a smart investor with good instincts IMO. I'm no apologist for Birinyi. The idea of a bull market is mine from many months before, and I arrived at it from another direction completely. Is Barton Biggs a hack too? He's looking for another robust rise later this year. That would make two back to back "robust rises", as we've just accomplished the first one.

I think meanwhile, the most sensible thing is to adopt a "wait and see" approach. If the markets are up notably within 18 months in the US indexes, despite truly horrific fundamentals apparent today, then a lot of people here will have to carefully reexamine their entire chain of reasoning as to why these markets "could not significantly rise" for them, in 2009-2010.

That's a statement of the obvious, but it is practical, and we should follow these simple steps to find out. What I suspect, is that if we do get a sharply risen US market, a lot of people that were jeering at this prospect today will sweep all of these polemics under the carpet then.

We really do have to wait and see. The jeering is premature.

[Tulpen]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Is Barton Biggs a hack too?

I was not implying Birinyi is a hack, but I think he biased due to his connections with the banking industry. Barton Biggs? You mean the guy who was bullish on the Japanese stock market in the 90's? Looks like he is repeating the same mistake for the US market. By the way, Traxis Partners, Biggs' hedgefund lost over 30% in 2008.

[Ann]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Fred,
This thread is rated one star. Don't you delete threads with a one star rating?
Ann

[cjppjc]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Fred,
This thread is rated one star. Don't you delete threads with a one star rating?
Ann

Funny stuff here. :rolleyes:

[metalman]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Funny stuff here. :rolleyes:

we're having fun now!

[cjppjc]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

we're having fun now!

This goes right over my head.

[Guest]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Yes. Meanwhile, Ann is sounding a little bit shrill.

[cjppjc]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Yes. Meanwhile, Ann is sounding a little bit shrill.

Yes. But she looks marrrrrvelous.

[Guest]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Yes. But she looks marrrrrvelous.

She is rather fetching, isn't she? But heck, that's just her avatar. If she were half that attractive though she'd still be plenty attractive. (slobbers)

[jpatter666]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

I think the avatar is Nicole Kidman in the Stepford Wives remake.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Bloomberg

U.S. Stock Plunge Is Buying Opportunity, Birinyi Says (Update2)

May 20, 2010, 4:21 PM EDT

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...-update2-.html

“I am not of the view that we’re going to go into a 20 percent downdraft,” Birinyi said in a telephone interview. “We are buying to take advantage of this weakness.”

[metalman]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Bloomberg

U.S. Stock Plunge Is Buying Opportunity, Birinyi Says (Update2)

May 20, 2010, 4:21 PM EDT

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...-update2-.html

“I am not of the view that we’re going to go into a 20 percent downdraft,” Birinyi said in a telephone interview. “We are buying to take advantage of this weakness.”

first bounce vs new bull market... tie breaker...



ah.... who needs a working banking system.