Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

[Guest]

Let it be carefully noted, the percentage of people on iTulip in the last six months in favor of a new extended bull run in the US and world stock indexes is somewhere in the order of 3-5%, and maybe that is even generous.

EVERYONE here has been intensely bearish the markets going forward, and if Birinyi is right, this will be one of the biggest flubbed calls by the iTulip membership collectively.

I'm NOT tooting my horn here, because this event HAS NOT YET EVEN MATERIALISED - instead, I'm STICKING MY NECK OUT and reiterating what Birinyi now calls for. I am reaffirming my call from six months ago. This will unfold.

But I think it's even longer a run than Birinyi, going out five years or more from here. I suggest this to you quite seriously - (at least some components of) EJ's Poom is going to arrive way early.

Until now, all I've gotten in exchange for this suggestion is guffaws - and that's from 90% + of readers here. Remember the suggestions I've reiterated here for the past six months running, in 3 years time!!

You can growl, you can wail, you can snarl all you like - but if this event arrives on expected schedule, it wil leave 90%+ of all iTulipers uber-doomy speculations here for MONTHS AND MONTHS, all flat wrong!!

______________

Birinyi Says S&P 500 May Surge 88% in Three Years (Update1)


By Matt Miller and Eric Martin

May 20 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks are at the start of a bull market that may spur an 88 percent advance in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index in the next two or three years, Laszlo Birinyi said.

“We’re confident we are in a bull market,” Birinyi, the founder of Westport, Connecticut-based research and money- management firm Birinyi Associates Inc., said in an interview with Bloomberg Television today.

The S&P 500 may jump to a record 1,700 as the economy rebounds from the worst recession since World War II, an increase from today’s close of 903.47, said Birinyi, who spent a decade on the trading desk at Salomon Brothers Inc.

Signs the global contraction is easing have spurred a 34 percent rally by the index since it sank to a 12-year low in March.

Birinyi’s October 2007 warning that a recovery in banks would be snuffed out presaged an 82 percent plunge in the S&P 500 Financials Index through March 6 of this year. Still, he was early in predicting the end of the bear market. He said on Dec. 8, 2008, that the S&P 500 bottomed the prior month, before the measure lost another 23 percent.

The S&P 500 is down 42 percent from its October 2007 record of 1,565.15.

Birinyi said investors should avoid the smallest U.S. stocks and buy companies like billionaire investor Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc., which he called “a good trading stock.” He added that he owns shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co.

To contact the reporters on this story: Matt Miller in New York at mtmiller@bloomberg.net; Eric Martin in New York at emartin21@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: May 20, 2009 17:08 EDT

[CanuckinTX]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Until now, all I've gotten in exchange for this suggestion is guffaws - and that's from 90% + of readers here. Remember the suggestions I've reiterated here for the past six months running, in 3 years time!!

Feeling lonely?

Try the MSN Money boards - you won't be such a contrarian there!

[LargoWinch]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Contrarian among contrarians. I like it.

Luke, speaking for myself, I think anyone challenging iTulip's thesis and assumptions - when done in a constructive manner - should be welcomed, no, encouraged.


So, let me get this straight, and I apologize if you outlined your thesis in previous threads before:

a) When you say that:

EJ's Poom is going to arrive way early.

Are you implying that iTulip's current recommendation (which I won't repeat in a non-subscriber section) is at risk? It is my understanding that a portion of the recommendation is to prevent exactly against POOM.

b) Also, are you saying that POOM will flow into equities and out of a portion of iTulip recommendation (you know which one)? Do you also imply that equities will outperform commodities?

If not, what about EJ's expected recommendation about commodities in about 2 weeks?

So either you think we are too late and the rocket has left the landing pad and/or you think we are about to board the wrong rocket.

Am I making some sense here?

PS: I would feel more comfortable discussing this in a subscriber area.

[Master Shake]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Let it be carefully noted, the percentage of people on iTulip in the last six months in favor of a new extended bull run in the US and world stock indexes is somewhere in the order of 3-5%, and maybe that is even generous.

EVERYONE here has been intensely bearish the markets going forward, and if Birinyi is right, this will be one of the biggest flubbed calls by the iTulip membership collectively.

I'm NOT tooting my horn here, because this event HAS NOT YET EVEN MATERIALISED - instead, I'm STICKING MY NECK OUT and reiterating what Birinyi now calls for. I am reaffirming my call from six months ago. This will unfold.

But I think it's even longer a run than Birinyi, going out five years or more from here. I suggest this to you quite seriously - EJ's Poom is going to arrive way early.

Until now, all I've gotten in exchange for this suggestion is guffaws - and that's from 90% + of readers here. Remember the suggestions I've reiterated here for the past six months running, in 3 years time!!

You can growl, you can wail, you can snarl all you like - but if this event arrives on expected schedule, it wil leave 90%+ of all iTulipers uber-doomy speculations here for MONTHS AND MONTHS, all flat wrong!!

______________

Birinyi Says S&P 500 May Surge 88% in Three Years (Update1)


By Matt Miller and Eric Martin

May 20 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks are at the start of a bull market that may spur an 88 percent advance in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index in the next two or three years, Laszlo Birinyi said.

“We’re confident we are in a bull market,” Birinyi, the founder of Westport, Connecticut-based research and money- management firm Birinyi Associates Inc., said in an interview with Bloomberg Television today.

The S&P 500 may jump to a record 1,700 as the economy rebounds from the worst recession since World War II, an increase from today’s close of 903.47, said Birinyi, who spent a decade on the trading desk at Salomon Brothers Inc.

Signs the global contraction is easing have spurred a 34 percent rally by the index since it sank to a 12-year low in March.

Birinyi’s October 2007 warning that a recovery in banks would be snuffed out presaged an 82 percent plunge in the S&P 500 Financials Index through March 6 of this year. Still, he was early in predicting the end of the bear market. He said on Dec. 8, 2008, that the S&P 500 bottomed the prior month, before the measure lost another 23 percent.

The S&P 500 is down 42 percent from its October 2007 record of 1,565.15.

Birinyi said investors should avoid the smallest U.S. stocks and buy companies like billionaire investor Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc., which he called “a good trading stock.” He added that he owns shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co.

To contact the reporters on this story: Matt Miller in New York at mtmiller@bloomberg.net; Eric Martin in New York at emartin21@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: May 20, 2009 17:08 EDT

Did Birinyi call the downturn? What's his record?

[perihelion]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

So, any reasoning behind this? Correct me if I'm wrong but EJ recommended selling as late as 2007, and this guy is predicting a bull market that would return the S&P to 2007 levels as early as 2012?

[Guest]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

CanuckinTX - Please wave a hand around your head, and across your shoulders, to make sure there are no cobwebs accumulating there. :eek: Jury's still out. Who "outguesses the contrarians"? Maybe the "contrarian's contrarians"? Heh. That sort of thing sounds like mush to me. I have no idea what a "contrarian" even is. Sounds kinda dumb to assume that merely by betting opposite to someone else, one winds up right. Meanwhile, what we could do in a year's time maybe, is take a pencil and ruler and draw a line from last March's lows, to wherever we are then, to see if the line looks like it's pointing up or down. Yes? Wanna play that game with me CanuckinTX?

Feeling lonely?

Try the MSN Money boards - you won't be such a contrarian there!

[photoncounter]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

But I think it's even longer a run than Birinyi, going out five years or more from here. I suggest this to you quite seriously - EJ's Poom is going to arrive way early.

EJ predicts that inflation starts rising Q4 2009 and no later than Q1 2010 -- isn't this the beginning of the POOM (I am assuming that coming rise in inflation is part of the POOM, correct me if I am wrong) ? So, when you say "EJ's POOM is going to arrive way early", what do you have in mind ?

You can growl, you can wail, you can snarl all you like - but if this event arrives on expected schedule, it wil leave 90%+ of all iTulipers uber-doomy speculations here for MONTHS AND MONTHS, all flat wrong!!

We also have suggestions for portfolio re-allocation coming up soon (which involves stocks) -- wouldn't this be a preparation for the upcoming market- rise. If inflation rises 100% over 5 years (if you believe in EJ's call) and so does the stock market (as predicted by Birinyi), the real returns will be negative and this is what is the general consensus here, no ? I agree that if this event unfolds, certain sectors and stocks will do much better than inflation. Do you have suggestions for specific stocks, sectors ?

Birinyi Says S&P 500 May Surge 88% in Three Years (Update1)

So, basically -- isn't this call more or less in line with EJ's call of 100% inflation over 3-5 (?) years ?

[WDCRob]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Fantastic Luke.

Dow/Gold was at 9.00 for a bit yesterday. I look forward to seeing what that looks like in three years to see if you're right.

Or did you mean to say that the dollar will collapse over the next three years?

[Guest]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

LargoWinch - Maybe someone can start a thread in Select with Birinyi's article and we get a discussion going there. Thank you for replying without reflexive derision. An agnostic mind keeps all possibilities on the table. Always.

[CanuckinTX]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

CanuckinTX - Please wave a hand around your head, and across your shoulders, to make sure there are no cobwebs accumulating there. :eek: Jury's still out. Who "outguesses the contrarians"? Maybe the "contrarian's contrarians"? Heh. That sort of thing sounds like mush to me. I have no idea what a "contrarian" even is. Sounds kinda dumb to assume that merely by betting opposite to someone else, one winds up right. Meanwhile, what we could do in a year's time maybe, is take a pencil and ruler and draw a line from last March's lows, to wherever we are then, to see if the line looks like it's pointing up or down. Yes? Wanna play that game with me CanuckinTX?

Sorry, I just thought it was a cry for help because you felt nobody liked you.

No need to play games though, I'll confine that to my Xbox All we can do is make our own educated bets and hope for the best.

[Guest]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

WDCRob - gotta go to work (my office is five blocks from where I live). I am unsure how the relationship between the USD and a sharply rising stock market works out. You may have been partly kidding, but I'm not.

I think the USD can exhibit remarkable firmness relative to major currencies here even several more years, and that the equities rise sharply regardless. Why? Because the other currencies will not be providing the USD with even a remotely reliable index of what's happening to purchasing power everywhere in fiat monies. The equity indexes step in as escape valve and stage a huge rally, while all the currencies stay tethered to the USD's "decline". Other iTulipers have an overly mechanical notion that "if the equities go up, the dollar must go down". That thesis may prove to be a Model T Ford instead.

If all fiat money chases the USD down, then you get a funny world where equities can "go up", dollar can "go up", gold can go up. Of course the gold will be the real benchmark, but to suggest it will move in linear fashion to the other two is unlikely. I think gold and silver *start* their real bull markets in 2011-2012. Not now. But now could be the start of a sustained move for equities instead. If any other currency steps in an begins to seriously supplant the USD, then all these scenarios would become impossible - but if no currency does function as a firmer benchmark for the USD fall, then you can get a very peculiar world for a few years.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Did Birinyi call the downturn? What's his record?

I don't think this was written by Laszlo Birinyi, but it is the lead paragraph to this entry on his firm's (Birinyi Associates, Inc.) official investment blog called Ticker Sense:

http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticke...bble_in_a.html

April 16, 2007 in Market Musings

Ever since the Nasdaq market popped in 2000, pundits have been quick to label anything that becomes popular a bubble. Sure, housing is in a slump right now, but how many shorts were busted, and how many trees were killed to print stories proclaiming the housing bubble? Yet, how many people are still kicking themselves for thinking they were so smart in 2002 when they opted for rent in the rent vs. own debate?

Ticker Sense was founded and developed by analysts at Birinyi Associates. Birinyi Associates continues to own and manage all content.

[Guest]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

CanuckinTX - I could care less whether anyone here likes me. Hasn't that been somewhat evident in the past year or two?

[coolhand]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Based on my recent experience IMHO, there seems to be only one "truly contrarian" theme amongst all investors: That hyperinflation can't happen in the US.

There is a healthy debate about inflation/deflation; bullish/bearish; commodities up or down; gold or equities or bonds or cash; but NOBODY thinks that hyperinflation can happen here, but when you ask them why, you get "well, b/c we're the USA, & well, it can't happen here. & we have the reserve currency" (which these days should always be followed by the words "For now.")

But let's objectively look at the facts comparing the USA to Germany circa 1921:

1. German economy in severe post-WW1 recession; US economy in severe recession.

2. German tax receipts fell precipitously as a result of said recession; early reads on US tax receipts are down much greater than thought....

3. Germans were the greatest net debtor nation in the world, having borrowed extensively for infrastructure/war rebuilding; US greatest debtor nation having borrowed extensively to buy McMansions & flat panel TVs & finance military adventures in Iraq, Afghanistan.

4. Germans owed onerous war reparations that became increasingly difficult to fund to Allies; US owes onerous Medicare & Social Security payments to its own citizens that are increasingly difficult to fund.


4a: On the above point # 4 – an important distinction here is that in Germany, it was ultimately politically popular for the Germans to default on their bonds & war reparations since they were owed to “foreigners acting against the interest of the German state.”

The onerous payments the US owes are VASTLY more politically untouchable than the German war reparations…ie, the US will be much more motivated to print money to fund its “onerous obligations” than the Germans were to fund theirs (and obviously, the Germans printed a lot.)

5. German gov't began to print money to fund these unfundable bond & reparation obligations; US announced they were beginning this in March.

6. Moneyed elite Germans began to move $ out of the mark as they became nervous about the actions of the German central bank; moneyed elite Americans may be doing that now (note a recent Bloomberg article that hedge fund manager John Paulson (who made $3B personally 2 yrs ago buying CDS' on various MBS') put $2.8B (a substantial portion) of his fund in GLD in 1Q, per public filing data.)

7.Other nations wanted to avoid holding marks – starting to see signs of other nations trying to subvert dollar’s reserve status – Brazil/China announcing intent to settle contracts in Yuan; Chinese rumblings about nervousness on dollar; Japanese opposition (minority) party announcing desire to have Treasury securities priced in Yen in future…etc.

8. German gov’t was forced to accelerate money printing to avoid losing the progress they had made to date; from the FOMC minutes last night: “"Some members noted that a further increase in the total amount of purchases might well be warranted at some point to spur a more rapid pace of recovery," according to the minutes.


To be clear, I think hyperinflation is a low probability event, but there are an awful lot of similarities, no? Further, last year at this time it was a zero probability event, and again, NOBODY thinks it can happen (well, nobody save maybe Mr. Paulson.)



Further, the Fed has both the motive (Bernanke & Bair’s studies of the Depression say # 1 mistake to avoid is “We had to be aggressive printing money to stave off deflation”), & the means to create hyperinflation.


We also have an Administration in power that has already shown a willingness to blame the wealthy for problems the gov’t helped create (per his Chrysler bondholder speech)


I can hear Obama now: “the hyperinflation is the result of commodity speculators bidding up the price of commodities for their own enrichment; fundamental demand for oil/gold/corn, etc. is weak as evidenced by the supply/demand #’s as a result of the ongoing recession”


Any thoughts?

[lurker]

Re: Laszlo Birinyi calls it - new bull market running 3+ years - Jeez, I suggested it 6 months ago!

Lukester, it's good to be open minded. I'm open minded because the input data overwhelms me.

However it seems like one thing to suggest a bull market in commodities due to currency depreciation, but another to suggest a general bull market in which one could just buy a broad index tracker and watch it sail higher.

I feel somewhat comfortable going long energy (oil, nat gas), but I'd feel very wary going long the indeces.