Post-crash iTulipers' portfolio condition poll

[vinoveri]

Re: Post-crash iTulipers' portfolio condition poll

Post-crash iTulipers' portfolio condition poll

The DJIA is off 4166 points (31%) since our Dec. 27, 2008 Debt Deflation Bear Market ($ubscription) call – our first since March 2000 – and 1656 points, more than 16%, since our Sept. 15 Fed Funds spread signals crash call, our second such call in ten years.

As a follower of iTulip, how is your portfolio holding up through the market carnage? Did you dodge the bullet?

About even, maybe a bit up. The ITulip subscription was surely a good buy.
I left equities a bit early (May 2006) as I thought that was the beginning of the crash; SPX was about 1280. Was kicking myself until last month for having been premature. Have been in cash and ~15% GLD.

Tried to play the trading game a bit with short etf's but was not successful. Worst mistake was buying SRS in early July at $107 only to watch it drop to ~$80 over the next 2 months. Got fed up and sold last week as the bailout package was being passed as I thought we'd get a big rally; SRS now trading at 124. go figure.

[skidder]

Re: Post-crash iTulipers' portfolio condition poll

I'm down probably 40% overall. My Gold & Silver stocks were devastated.
My physical is up by whatever % those rose over that timeframe.
I have some Numismatics (pre-33 Gaudens) that have started to perk up recently as well.
Overall quite an ass-pounding, financially speaking.

I'm not selling anything though. I don't give a rip either. These fu*kers gaming the system are going to have to come and physically steal my assets. I know what is coming and I'm not trading my way into a scenario that leaves me on the sidelines. I suck as a trader in any event so I'd almost be guaranteed of selling just after a collapse and just prior to a "bank holiday" or some other BS system shut down that leaves me on the outside looking in at the big boys stuffing their portfolios with my recently sold stocks. Sorry, a tint of tinfoil there!

[j4f2h0]

Re: Post-crash iTulipers' portfolio condition poll

i started buying gold in 2005 so i am up on physical gold and about flat on my physical silver. I got crushed in gdx but limited my loss and sold out in the july rally, and used the money to buy more physical and stay out of the market! I have a small stake in a penny mining company, 5k or so hoping it will go through the roof! I keep all cash in hand only have 1k in a bank!
Overall about flat!

[metalman]

Re: Post-crash iTulipers' portfolio condition poll

My Gold & Silver stocks were devastated.

gold.

and.

silver.

mining.

stocks.

itulip: never buy mining stocks, only ever buy physical either eft or the stuff'.

itulip dec. 2007: 'get out of stocks'

mining stocks are stocks.



the poll is... 'if you listened to itulip' not if you ignored it. did you vote? hope not.

[Jeff]

Re: Post-crash iTulipers' portfolio condition poll

I bought a lot of physical gold in the 90's which has done well, but the managed portion of wealth was up through August, then took a 5.5% hit in one week in September.

Noodling around with excel I realized I'd lost more money that week than I'd made in my first five years out of college. Ouch. Loses hurt worse than gains feel good.

[orion]

Re: Post-crash iTulipers' portfolio condition poll

Technically the poll and Fred's post speak about how your portfolio has done since the iTulip calls.

Fred/Ed:

As a follower of iTulip, how is your portfolio holding up through the market carnage? Did you dodge the bullet?

Poll:

From the date of our Dec. 27, 2007 Debt Deflation Bear Market call, where is your portfolio to date?

So I think you can vote whether or not you listened to the advise.

Personally I was already out of the market in late 2007 as I thought doom and gloom was in the cards as did several blog sites. What I learned on iTulip is to avoid the dollar and watch for inflation not deflation, and I say Thanks!

[sadsack]

Re: Post-crash iTulipers' portfolio condition poll

Overall, I'm down around 5%. I took the biggest hit in my employer-sponsored retirement account (-25%), for the money I manage myself, I'm pretty much even (PM up, cash up, energy stocks down).

It could have been much, much worse - Thanks iTulip!

[Atlas]

Re: Post-crash iTulipers' portfolio condition poll

Up about 12% despite recent losses in my one Gold mining stock (GG). Yes Metalman, I know they said avoid mining stocks but I just can't seem to grasp that if gold goes up that they won't benefit. I also went against the advice a with USB but have done well trading in and out of this. (Note that I sell a lot of puts that expire worthless and when I do actually get exercised I tend to sell calls that I think will get me out quickly. This has been a great strategy for me over the past 3 years averaging around 32% yearly. Just thought I'd share that since the education I get here from many of you is invaluable. I know it's simple but it seems to work well and I love making money without actually owning anything.)

I am up the most with SDS which I only got interested in thanks to reading here. I had never taken any type of short position prior to this and I wish I would have been brave enough to buy some puts on financials but just couldn't pull the trigger.

[cschx]

Re: Post-crash iTulipers' portfolio condition poll

I had all my savings in a fairly run-of-the-mill NASDAQ fund until I started reading iTulip back in Spring of 2006. I sold everything and bought USPIX on EJ's call, but missed the part about it being a short-term trade. Subsequently watched USPIX fall to less than half what I bought it for, but I'm stubborn and hung in there. Now I'm showing a nice profit after two years of losing money, but I've learned that the only kind of trading I'm suited for is the "buy and hold forever" variety.

I am currently in 60% cash, 20% short NASDAQ via USPIX and 20% physical gold (BullionVault) and am doing pretty well this year. Wish I knew how to trade so I could do even better – I suspect there are fortunes to be made from this kind of volatility. But I know better than to try my unpractised hand.

[sabocat]

Re: Post-crash iTulipers' portfolio condition poll

Literally taking iTulip's advice has caused me to be in physical gold and SRS. SRS sucked for a long time, but appears to be doing fine now. Gold everyone knows about: wildly going nowhere, which is fine since for me it is a mechanism for preserving capital.

itulip's analysis has prompted other investments which are doing fine. HSGFX has held up nicely, though his calls have been a little worse than usual lately. International bonds are there to hedge dollar deflation and have been holding up OK, though the flight to the dollar has taken them well off of their highs. But I expect they will recover and will be fine barring the introduction of capital controls.

Commodity plays have been massacred (both actual commodities and stocks) and I have been massacred along with them.

The best thing iTulip has done for me is made me absolutely certain about the blow-up of the banking sector and I have had put options on a variety of banks all year until September. These puts have nicely hedged other declines. Of course you can't do that anymore, the volatility premium is too high, one may as well short the underlying stock. This week I opened call options on gold miners, put options on high-end retail, and put options on treasuries, which all seem to me to be derivative of itulip's analysis.

[tombat1913]

Re: Post-crash iTulipers' portfolio condition poll

I read Americas Bubble Economy and took control of my own retirement accounts in October 2007, I called the market top about two months earlier than iTulip, but based upon the information in the book. Since then my IRA is up 40%, and my 401K is up 20%. The 401K would be much better but I only have control of about half of it, the other half is in company stock which has been hammered down.

Thanks iTulip!

[Gnosis]

Re: Post-crash iTulipers' portfolio condition poll

I read several books on gold and of course EJ's bubble book. I went 80/20 bullion/cash. Gold remains as stable as Linda Blair's cervical spine, however I believe it will go very positive in the next year.
SO, breakin' even, give or take, is the word from this iTulip devotee.
PS..... LOVED the clip from Metalman!

[nedtheguy]

Re: Post-crash iTulipers' portfolio condition poll

redacted

[sishya]

Re: Post-crash iTulipers' portfolio condition poll

I have been a bear since Aug 2007.
inverse ETF's : up 30%.(cashed out. could not understand today's crash)
Gold : up 5%

[jtabeb]

Re: Post-crash iTuliper's portfolio condition poll

I'm up about 5% net post crash. (depends on the reference date, I'm up 12.5% net since Dec 27 '07)

Oops! Just had to do a revision (Damn Volatility!) Since leaving work I'm now up 19.5% since Dec 27 '07.