Post-crash iTulipers' portfolio condition poll

[Brandman]

Re: Post-crash iTulipers' portfolio condition poll

Sold my house at the peak in June 2005 because I saw what was coming. Subsequently became an iTulip subscriber because it's central theses lined up with what I thought was happening and kept most of the money out of the market.

Invested a good chunk (15%) of total portfolio in Gold Bullion via Bullion Vault. Went to cash with most of my other money, however left some in gold and PM stocks, which are way down--ignored that iTulip warning-- and still have a small percentage in miscellaneous asset-class-based stock funds invested around the world. All losers at this point.

I also have been buying some Canadian Gas Trust stocks during this crash to pull in something that is now paying 21% and not in danger of going bust. Yes, eventually their hedges will expire and the dividend may be lowered, but I am not so worried about that.

Overall I am net down about 10% from my absolute high in Aug 2007. Will be down more if the pre-IPO company I invested in in 2000 goes bust. So far it's hanging on and just got some funds from Dubai. Maybe it will make it and I'll get my money back...

Definitely feel like I dodged the bullet. I see many of my friends, with whom I have and had spoken at length about the upcoming crash, still in denial and barely holding on. Most still don't see the danger they are in. Sigh.

Best to you all.

[EasternBelle]

Re: Post-crash iTulipers' portfolio condition poll

Moved to a much more conservative portfolio 2 years ago. Most of my liquid worth is now in cash and Gold. iTulip has been great in helping shape the thesis I was starting to develop two years ago, when the credit madness started to dawn on me. So, yes very happy about my personal portfolio. Waiting for it to happen, while it seems to climb up relentlessly was not easy. Now I wonder when to become contrarian again and what signals to watch out for.
As to the company's pension fund, I don't know, but then its one of those few defined benefit funds in a strong industry and they were overcapitalised at the beginning of the year. I expect they'll increase contributions next year.
Eastern Belle

[LabMonkey]

Re: Post-crash iTulipers' portfolio condition poll

I'm up a little over 100% but currently have little in the way of precious metals. My first purchase was from apmex after a recommendation from grapejelly - thank you sir, they were in stock and arrived rather quickly. A good portion of my portfolio increase actually occurred in just the past few weeks. I was using a double inverse ETF (SRS) after reading itulip's (and others as well) take on CRE. I had been holding onto OCT call options for a couple months, and held them through all of Paulson's swats and jabs. For a while, I was wondering if I was going to have to go through this whole crisis broke. I also have some lotto SPY put options that are no longer looking so lotto like. I missed the days of $400 gold so I figured I'd have to make a killing in the market to compensate. I'm in my late 20's so I took on a good deal of risk and the timing was just right to pay off. Now I'm just hoping that I'll still be able to wire my profits before the whole thing is stuck in limbo.

[Chris Coles]

Re: Post-crash iTulipers' portfolio condition poll

gold.

and.

silver.

mining.

stocks.

itulip: never buy mining stocks, only ever buy physical either eft or the stuff'.

itulip dec. 2007: 'get out of stocks'

mining stocks are stocks.



the poll is... 'if you listened to itulip' not if you ignored it. did you vote? hope not.

October 9, 2008


Mining stocks fall in a hole as Chinese demand falters

Market report

Robert Lindsay


The ribbon was cut on the FTSE 100 clearance sale yesterday, with mining and oil shares going for a song. The news that four key Chinese steel plants were cutting production this year by up to a fifth triggered a stampede, particularly out of mining stocks.



http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle4909867.ece

[jimmygu3]

Re: Post-crash iTulipers' portfolio condition poll

itulip: never buy mining stocks, only ever buy physical either eft or the stuff'.

itulip dec. 2007: 'get out of stocks'

mining stocks are stocks.

the poll is... 'if you listened to itulip' not if you ignored it. did you vote? hope not.

metalman,

I have tried to ignore your belligerent, condescending comments for a while. First of all, the last thing somebody who just lost a significant chunk of their life savings needs is some know-it-all telling them what an idiot they are.

The poll does not say you should only vote 'if you listened to itulip', it says, "As a follower of iTulip, how is your portfolio holding up through the market carnage? Did you dodge the bullet?". Many here "follow" iTulip, but do not necessarily make drastic financial moves based on it. Your approach would make for a useless poll only designed for people like you to reaffirm your self-perceived superiority.

And how can you say that you have followed all of EJ's recommendations? He doesn't give "financial advice". He says with a certain degree of confidence what he believes is likely to happen. He doesn't say "buy this, sell that". He has on occasion made reference to his own allocation. IIRC, when EJ made his call for a gold bottom in '01, he took about a 10%-15% position. At no time has he said he is 100% PMs. Can you imagine someone so foolish as to put all their eggs in one basket? Oops, I'm acting like you now. Sorry.

When EJ called the housing top in '05, he didn't sell his house. When he called the beginning of the bear market 12/27/07, he didn't go 100% short on the S&P. He said "I am taking a few speculative short positions before end of year". Of course, you had no stocks to sell because you were already 100% PM.

As if you cared, I will explain why I have held mining stocks. I have most of my portfolio tied up in my 401k. I get matched at 160% on the first 4%, so I would be a fool not to contribute. Inside of that, the closest thing to a PM play I have is going long PM mining funds, and hedging with short S&P funds. It has netted out very well for me over the last few years.

If EJ has recommended that people cash out of their 401ks to buy physical metals, please point me to that. If you have a better idea, I'm all ears. I have posted my holdings several times over the last couple years and have received very little constructive feedback. I'm a regular guy doing my best. EJ's advice has kept me at -7% while my WSJ-toting co-worker just informed me he is down over 30%. It's all relative, and I think EJ would agree that my vote counts.

Jimmy

[pianodoctor]

Re: Post-crash iTulipers' portfolio condition poll

Unfortunately I didn't discover iTulip until AFTER I invested all my money with Euro Pacific Capital in spring 2007. So I am DOWN, DOWN, DOWN like maybe 40%. And for some reason the broker didn't want me to buy into any gold, so I don't even have the benefit of gold's rise.

In 2006, I was just another retail know-nothing who relied totally on a mainstream advisor. In January 2007 I lost the adviser and decided it was time to learn something. Decided to look into the macroeconomy first to see if I could discern future trends. Became convinced of the 'bad news' view of the future, found Mega's pet monkey. Invested there. But continued the quest to learn. Found iTulip. EJ is amazing. If I only knew then what I know now, but what can I do about that?? Just hope that Mega's pet monkey is right about the "end game" after all- as he has been right about so much other stuff. But right now, I've got a 40% wall to climb just to get back to break even. It doesn't feel good, but I'm holding on.

(edit: Ha- I just discovered the automated "Mega's pet monkey" feature....)

[metalman]

Re: Post-crash iTulipers' portfolio condition poll

metalman,

I have tried to ignore your belligerent, condescending comments for a while. First of all, the last thing somebody who just lost a significant chunk of their life savings needs is some know-it-all telling them what an idiot they are.

The poll does not say you should only vote 'if you listened to itulip', it says, "As a follower of iTulip, how is your portfolio holding up through the market carnage? Did you dodge the bullet?". Many here "follow" iTulip, but do not necessarily make drastic financial moves based on it. Your approach would make for a useless poll only designed for people like you to reaffirm your self-perceived superiority.

And how can you say that you have followed all of EJ's recommendations? He doesn't give "financial advice". He says with a certain degree of confidence what he believes is likely to happen. He doesn't say "buy this, sell that". He has on occasion made reference to his own allocation. IIRC, when EJ made his call for a gold bottom in '01, he took about a 10%-15% position. At no time has he said he is 100% PMs. Can you imagine someone so foolish as to put all their eggs in one basket? Oops, I'm acting like you now. Sorry.

When EJ called the housing top in '05, he didn't sell his house. When he called the beginning of the bear market 12/27/07, he didn't go 100% short on the S&P. He said "I am taking a few speculative short positions before end of year". Of course, you had no stocks to sell because you were already 100% PM.

As if you cared, I will explain why I have held mining stocks. I have most of my portfolio tied up in my 401k. I get matched at 160% on the first 4%, so I would be a fool not to contribute. Inside of that, the closest thing to a PM play I have is going long PM mining funds, and hedging with short S&P funds. It has netted out very well for me over the last few years.

If EJ has recommended that people cash out of their 401ks to buy physical metals, please point me to that. If you have a better idea, I'm all ears. I have posted my holdings several times over the last couple years and have received very little constructive feedback. I'm a regular guy doing my best. EJ's advice has kept me at -7% while my WSJ-toting co-worker just informed me he is down over 30%. It's all relative, and I think EJ would agree that my vote counts.

Jimmy

jimmy,

first to admit i'm rough around the edges. what can i say?

my 'arrogance' as you call it is frustration. itulip goes to a lot of trouble to explain over and over... such as DON'T BUY MINING STOCKS... yet when readers fail to head the 'opinion' (not 'advice') and then report that they are down because of mining stocks they cannot also say that they have followed itulip opinions. the amount that they are down now is due entirely to itulip opinion that they haven't listened to.

here's the list of 'opinions' or 'calls' from the select thread...

• November 1998: Warns on Internet Bubble
• August 1999: No Y2K Disaster
• November 1999: How the Internet Bubble Will End
• March 2000: Internet Bubble Top
• April 2000: A Bear Market is Born
• January 2001: Post-Bubble Recession
• September 2001: Gold Price Bottom at US$270
• August 2002: Warns of Housing Bubble
• January 2004: How Housing Bubble will End
• January 2005: Housing Bubble Correction
• June 2005: Housing Bubble Top
• October 2006: Recession Q4 2007
• July 2007: Before the Stroke of Midnight
• December 27, 2007: Start of Debt Deflation Bear Market

i'd add...

Sept. 15 Fed Funds spread signals crash

there are some folks here who famously said a few months ago that their 'drawdown' was positive for the year but negative for the duration of itulip... they lost big time in 2000. one of them also said he lost big in 1987, too. this same member, who has been mighty quiet lately, has been a vocal doubter if itulip's dec. 2007 call, among others. think he's made the same mistake a 3rd time?

what you are hearing from me is frustration. these losses are all so unnecessary.

the poll is "as a follower of itulip, how is your portfolio doing' not 'if you decided to listen to some of the opinions but not others how is your portfolio doing'. so the poll results are a mix of following, not following and partial following. i'd like to know how just the true followers did. maybe fred can re-do it with... 'take the stuff out of your portfolio that we say suck, like mining stocks, and report how your portfolio is doing...' then maybe the results will be more like mine... up 7% for the year.

at the end of the day, in the beauty contest of financial market and economic opinion and forecasting, it all comes down to this: who's has the best track record and most well researched and expressed opinion?

[Chris Coles]

Re: Post-crash iTulipers' portfolio condition poll

metalman,

I have tried to ignore your belligerent, condescending comments for a while. First of all, the last thing somebody who just lost a significant chunk of their life savings needs is some know-it-all telling them what an idiot they are.

The poll does not say you should only vote 'if you listened to itulip', it says, "As a follower of iTulip, how is your portfolio holding up through the market carnage? Did you dodge the bullet?". Many here "follow" iTulip, but do not necessarily make drastic financial moves based on it. Your approach would make for a useless poll only designed for people like you to reaffirm your self-perceived superiority.

And how can you say that you have followed all of EJ's recommendations? He doesn't give "financial advice". He says with a certain degree of confidence what he believes is likely to happen. He doesn't say "buy this, sell that". He has on occasion made reference to his own allocation. IIRC, when EJ made his call for a gold bottom in '01, he took about a 10%-15% position. At no time has he said he is 100% PMs. Can you imagine someone so foolish as to put all their eggs in one basket? Oops, I'm acting like you now. Sorry.

When EJ called the housing top in '05, he didn't sell his house. When he called the beginning of the bear market 12/27/07, he didn't go 100% short on the S&P. He said "I am taking a few speculative short positions before end of year". Of course, you had no stocks to sell because you were already 100% PM.

As if you cared, I will explain why I have held mining stocks. I have most of my portfolio tied up in my 401k. I get matched at 160% on the first 4%, so I would be a fool not to contribute. Inside of that, the closest thing to a PM play I have is going long PM mining funds, and hedging with short S&P funds. It has netted out very well for me over the last few years.

If EJ has recommended that people cash out of their 401ks to buy physical metals, please point me to that. If you have a better idea, I'm all ears. I have posted my holdings several times over the last couple years and have received very little constructive feedback. I'm a regular guy doing my best. EJ's advice has kept me at -7% while my WSJ-toting co-worker just informed me he is down over 30%. It's all relative, and I think EJ would agree that my vote counts.

Jimmy

Jimmy,

If my last post has caused offence, please accept my apologies. I did not make it as though to reinforce Metalman, but simply to show the reality of the day.

There is a lot of stress about and that is hardly surprising considering what is unfolding in front of our eyes, day by day.

Each one of us has a different situation and strategy. You are correct to point out that everyone has a different position. In my case, I am sitting on IP assets that might be worth hanging onto, or then again, might not. My strategy is to wait for things to settle, which might now be for at least another year and then make some decisions. So in one way, I am in a much better position than most, with little real money to lose, but in another way, I have to live with my decision to sit. It might be an expensive decision and as with everyone else, I will not know until the fat lady sings.

Chris.

[jimmygu3]

Re: Post-crash iTulipers' portfolio condition poll

Jimmy,

If my last post has caused offence, please accept my apologies. I did not make it as though to reinforce Metalman, but simply to show the reality of the day.

There is a lot of stress about and that is hardly surprising considering what is unfolding in front of our eyes, day by day.

Each one of us has a different situation and strategy. You are correct to point out that everyone has a different position. In my case, I am sitting on IP assets that might be worth hanging onto, or then again, might not. My strategy is to wait for things to settle, which might now be for at least another year and then make some decisions. So in one way, I am in a much better position than most, with little real money to lose, but in another way, I have to live with my decision to sit. It might be an expensive decision and as with everyone else, I will not know until the fat lady sings.

Chris.

No offence taken, Chris. Your description of your situation illustrates how we cannot paint with too broad a brush when determining absolutes about investing. Or anything, for that matter.

Jimmy

P.S. Still hope to hear more about your gravity theories!

[quigleydoor]

Re: Post-crash iTulipers' portfolio condition poll

meanwhile, over at paul douglas boyer's http://madmoneymachine.com/portfolios...
Professional Lazy Portfolios

ID	Professional Lazy Portfolio	Thru 30 Sep
L29	Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio	-2.2%
L04	Ben Stein Retirement	-7.3%
L13	Bill Schultheis’ Coffeehouse Portfolio Vanguard	-8.9%
L12	Bill Schultheis’ Coffeehouse Portfolio ETFs	-9.5%
L07	John Wasnik’s Nano Investment Portfolio	-9.5%
L15	Scott Burns’ Couch Potato Portfolio	-9.7%
L18	Scott Burns’ Five Fold Portfolio	-10.5%
L22	FundAdvice Ultimate Buy & Hold	-10.9%
L14	David Swensen’s Lazy Portfolio	-11.0%
L10	William Bernstein’s No Brainer Cowards Portfolio	-11.6%
L17	Scott Burns’ Four Square Portfolio	-12.0%
L19	Scott Burns’ Six Ways from Sunday Portfolio	-12.2%
L09	William Bernstein’s Basic No-Brainer Portfolio	-13.5%
L06	Frank Armstrong’s Ideal Index Portfolio	-13.6%
L03	Ben Stein 2007	-15.5%
L08	Andrew Tobias’ Lazy Portfolio	-16.3%
L16	Scott Burns’ Margarita (also Andrew Tobias) Portfolio	-16.3%
L11	Bill Schultheis’ Coffeehouse Portfolio Three ETF	-16.7%
L27	Bogle Tax-Sheltered	-17.6%
L28	MMM SMILER Funds	-17.6%
L24	MMM Do It Yourself ETFs	-18.9%
L20	Ted Aronson’s Lazy Portfolio	-19.1%
L01	IFA Index Portfolio 100 Bright Red	-19.4%
L23	MMM Do It Yourself Funds	-19.5%
L21	Merriman Vanguard Equity	-20.4%
L05	Jim Lowell’s Sower’s Growth Portfolio	-21.1%
L02	WisdomTree	-21.5%

Thanks for posting this summary. I'm down about 18% since 12/27/2007 and I'm interested to see how I stand in comparison.

My own portfolio is an average of David Swenson's Lazy Portfolio, Christopher Moth, Ibbotson Associates Moderate Allocation, and a traditional "diversified" plan like your pre-crash example below. On top of this average, I applied a wussy bear market strategy of -10% reduced equity exposure and +10% cash, and pulled out of financials completely.

Post-crash financial terminology definitions

"Diversified"

Pre-crash
5% cash
2% short term gov't debt
33% investment grade bonds
3% high yield
9% emerging market stocks
32% large cap us stocks
9% mid cap us stocks
7% small cap stocks

Post-crash
20% 13 wk t-bills
60% cash spread around as many banks as needed to stay under the latest FDIC limit
20% gold

[zenith191]

Re: Post-crash iTulipers' portfolio condition poll

I am up 126% this year.

Mostly from double inverse ETFs, put options, paper gold and Forex.

I did not buy or sell a single gold mining stock.

[Chris Coles]

Re: Post-crash iTulipers' portfolio condition poll

No offence taken, Chris. Your description of your situation illustrates how we cannot paint with too broad a brush when determining absolutes about investing. Or anything, for that matter.

Jimmy

P.S. Still hope to hear more about your gravity theories!

It is very simple, While attending a wireless conference in San Francisco 2002 I was challenged by another delegate, over a beer one evening, to publish some ideas I had had in mind about gravity. To cut a very long story short, I set up my own publishing co, proudly using the name of my greatest mentor, sadly the now late Len Sugerman and published a short missive. It did not get so much as a second glance and bombed. Still have half the first edition under the bed. Forced by reduced economic circumstances to put my wireless proposals on hold, I sat down and continued to write. By November 2005 I had produced a second edition e-book, but by then Len's boss, Prof. Don Birx had agreed to become my Principal Investigator and in turn he challenged me to write up some experiments to prove my thinking. So over the last three years I did just that and as of this month, I have a new, retitled edition, (480 pages, 57 chapters and 168 illustrations), completely finished, ready to publish when funding can be found. Don has been kind enough to both write a Foreword and also now state this last week that the final draft "is quite a masterpiece now", though I must immediately point out that he does not agree with my theories. He does explain why in the Foreword.

In essence, I believe that instead of being attracted to the planet by a force we call gravity, we are attached to the mass of the planet by the atmosphere that surrounds us. If I am correct, I have pretty well re-written both the physics and cosmology text books. I hardly need to tell you that no scientist would publicly support such a theory, as that would mean every text book has to be replaced with mine. However, quite a few scientists have seen earlier drafts and I do believe that it is fair to say that at least one scientist has followed what I theorise and has intimated, in writing in Scientific American, without referring to me, the possibility of a new disruptive theory on the horizon.

It would be quite improper of me to try and sell the book here and I am not going to sully the professionalism of iTulip by saying any more than that. When we have a book in hand, you will all hear about it in iTulip.

[pinhead]

Re: Post-crash iTulipers' portfolio condition poll

One huge recent success on cash/stock investment portfolio. Made the year, for sure! SPY december 84 puts, bought for $0.50 a few weeks ago, and sold Thursday at the close.
Physical gold, and bullionvault up a little over all, over a year of buying physical. Premiums for $20 libs have been extremely high recently, but still adding.
IRA turned to cash/money market at the beginning of September.
I owe a fair amount to Minyanville, FM and itulip, and a number of other sources.
Other puts on financials are still in place and in the green!
Who can tell what happens Monday morning......If they don't close down the world exchanges, I figure more premium growth on the financials puts next week (expire December 2008 out of the money puts - now near the money!).
Options were the second best thing I learned about over the last year, but I am still getting the hang of timing (in and out).
Had Lehman puts in early September (or was it August?) but set a sell price way short of the mark. Out on a positive note, but not what it could have been.
Live and learn.

[chrsub8rt]

Re: Post-crash iTulipers' portfolio condition poll

Post-crash iTulipers' portfolio condition poll

The DJIA is off 4166 points (31%) since our Dec. 27, 2008 Debt Deflation Bear Market ($ubscription) call – our first since March 2000 – and 1656 points, more than 16%, since our Sept. 15 Fed Funds spread signals crash call, our second such call in ten years.

As a follower of iTulip, how is your portfolio holding up through the market carnage? Did you dodge the bullet?

It's to be seen. Up until 2 weeks ago, I was up 15%, but a chunk of cash caught in a sweep fund (Reserve Primary) is now in the hands of the SEC awaiting liquidation and distribution. Thought I had my bases covered. Thanks for all the good advice. chrsub8rt

[ed_oshea]

Re: Post-crash iTulipers' portfolio condition poll

I would be up quit a bit more if I had not sold my SDS early in this (for me rally). That is the problem being better informed than the sheeple, I sell early thinking every dolt must know by now, and it still is a week before the herd changes course.

Ed OShea