Where will SPX be at end Q 3 2007?

[Jim Nickerson]

It seems to me when I joined iTulip that there were some polls put up by the administrator asking this same question, but now I find no old polls about quarterly action. It also seems in those polls, two of them as I recall, as they turned out, the majority was exactly wrong.

While it is still early this quarter, it's not too late to garner some opinion.

What do you think? Where will the SPX be at the end of September 2007?

If I did it correctly, you have until midnight Sunday to vote.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Where will SPX be at end Q 3 2007?

Better vote, so far 5 votes don't offer any insight.

Surely people must have an opinion. Express it.

[jk]

Re: Where will SPX be at end Q 3 2007?

jim, each day and week that goes by, i feel like i know less. i have no predictions.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Where will SPX be at end Q 3 2007?

jim, each day and week that goes by, i feel like i know less. i have no predictions.

I understand. After I put up the poll and my vote, I got to thinking whether my vote was a "prediction" or a "hope." Probably was the latter. Actually it is a "bet" or a statement of how I am betting.

Still people must have some opinion, and it would be nice to see it expressed.

[zoog]

Re: Where will SPX be at end Q 3 2007?

jim, each day and week that goes by, i feel like i know less. i have no predictions.

Man, if long-time iTulipers like you don't feel like you know enough to make a prediction, I must be fooling myself to think I can. But I voted anyway.

[lb]

Re: Where will SPX be at end Q 3 2007?

I voted lower.

I believe we haven't broken 1540 because there is no more money to feed the Ponzi scheme. you can see the hot money that is left, is going into fewer and fewer stocks RIMM, APPL...

My money is against the SP and residential builders (easy target, paid of huge so far, I see no reason for this too change).

I'm long gold, not physical. If people run for the exits, I think gold is going to get a short lived pop, besides there is way to much resistance around 650 to go much lower than where it is now for too long, and cotstimer is bullish on gold. I will abandon gold early September if nothing happens (remember the ECB press release, no sales until September).

I don't know if it would be wise to take my advice as I have a very high risk tolerance (28, married, no kids, no debts, still renting, live way below means). I also have very high job security, in an industry that does best during recessions (export service provider).

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Where will SPX be at end Q 3 2007?

I voted lower.

I believe we haven't broken 1540 because there is no more money to feed the Ponzi scheme. you can see the hot money that is left, is going into fewer and fewer stocks RIMM, APPL...

My money is against the SP and residential builders (easy target, paid of huge so far, I see no reason for this too change).

I'm long gold, not physical. If people run for the exits, I think gold is going to get a short lived pop, besides there is way to much resistance around 650 to go much lower than where it is now for too long, and cotstimer is bullish on gold. I will abandon gold early September if nothing happens (remember the ECB press release, no sales until September).

I don't know if it would be wise to take my advice as I have a very high risk tolerance (28, married, no kids, no debts, still renting, live way below means). I also have very high job security, in an industry that does best during recessions (export service provider).

Anyone 28 would do well to emulate what you have, just keep it up, and don't keep up with the Jones's.

[rachits]

Re: Where will SPX be at end Q 3 2007?

high probability of up 2-4%
low probability of down 15-20%

very low probability of anything else...

[DemonD]

Re: Where will SPX be at end Q 3 2007?

My vote is for unchanged. Based on trailing earnings, I believe the markets in general are fairly priced to slightly overvalued. The reason I don't think it will change in september is that I believe the Q3 numbers is what will spook a bit of a sell-off, and Q3 numbers don't come out until october.

I do believe Q2 numbers will come in mostly in-line with expectations in general.

What is my rationale for this?

Well, the p/e of the S&P 500 I do believe is right where it should be based on historical valuations, as is the PEG ratio. Anecdotally, I'm currently in Illinois on vacation after road-tripping from Los Angeles. I spent a couple of days in the Grand Canyon and hiked around Zion Canyon, and spent a couple of days in Las Vegas and Salt Lake City. I saw many people doing very well, the Canyons were absolutely PACKED (although I do admit I heard a lot of languages that were not English, quite a bit of French and a bit of German to be specific). In the city of Los Angeles, there is still way more demand for jobs than there are people to work. Of course, part of this is due to insanely unaffordable housing and the need for lots of low paying service jobs. Colleges, private schools, universities, community colleges around LA are all filled nicely too. I would recount a bear argument, but many people have argued to the downside, and I believe them too... I'm not totally bullish. I'm just saying that on a balance scale, the bull and bear arguments are just about even for the time being.

[TraderJoe]

Re: Where will SPX be at end Q 3 2007?

I believe we haven't broken 1540 because there is no more money to feed the Ponzi scheme. you can see the hot money that is left, is going into fewer and fewer stocks RIMM, APPL...

No more $ for the Ponzi scheme, or the fact that everybody (hedgies, etc.) is already leveraged to the hilt. Not to mention the trouble brewing in derivatives market.

And if I recall from the bust of tech-bubble....there were only a few stocks going up prior to, much like now. Unless you are long index funds/market-tracking ETF's, its hard to be a stock-picker now. At least on the long side.


I would vote "down", but I'm too late.

[DemonD]

Re: Where will SPX be at end Q 3 2007?

My vote is for unchanged. Based on trailing earnings, I believe the markets in general are fairly priced to slightly overvalued. The reason I don't think it will change in september is that I believe the Q3 numbers is what will spook a bit of a sell-off, and Q3 numbers don't come out until october.

S&P 500 at close of 6-29-07 - 1503.35
S&P 500 at close of 9/28/07 - 1526.75

While not technically correct, a 1.5% change in a volatile market (when a 5% savings account gets you about the same return) is about as "unchanged" as you can get... so I'm just going to go ahead and pat myself on the back for the 3rd time in 24 hours for calls I've made recently (especially since I was the only one to vote for unchanged). Also patted myself on another thread for the 3Q earnings prediction, I'll just go ahead and be a little satisfied when at least for one week it has played out as I proposed.