Currency deflation, gold, and iTulip.com

[FRED]

Would you still be here if iTulip.com was wrong and, after the credit collapse of 2008, monetary and general price deflation set in and gold fell to $200 as the deflation forecasters predicted?

[Down Under]

Re: Currency deflation, gold, and iTulip.com

Would you still be here if iTulip.com was wrong and, after the credit collapse of 2008, monetary and general price deflation set in and gold fell to $200 as the deflation forecasters predicted?

I'd still hang around but your credibility would be shot, surely. I don't really understand the purpose of this poll.

[FRED]

Re: Currency deflation, gold, and iTulip.com

I'd still hang around but your credibility would be shot, surely. I don't really understand the purpose of this poll.

Because some members may otherwise forget that there are 1000 ways to forecast incorrectly but only one way to forecast correctly.

In the coming years it will be increasingly important to distinguish between luck and process.

[cjppjc]

Re: Currency deflation, gold, and iTulip.com

I don't understand choice #3.

Did you mean inflation?

[Down Under]

Re: Currency deflation, gold, and iTulip.com

In the coming years it will be increasingly important to distinguish between luck and process.

And you expect this poll to highlight that distinction. I must be thick, but I fail to see how that'll be achieved, from this poll.

As far as I'm concerned, your track record to date is all I need. No luck about it. Not only the big calls but the timing; very, very impressive.

[D-Mack]

Re: Currency deflation, gold, and iTulip.com

Why is MISH advocating gold if it's going to fall to 200?

[Chris]

Re: Currency deflation, gold, and iTulip.com

Why is MISH advocating gold if it's going to fall to 200?

Because everyone else is? (except the FED)

[rabot10]

Re: Currency deflation, gold, and iTulip.com

I would be dressed in my fully camouflaged all weather outfit, with my recently acquired AR-15 with an Eotec 557 red dot and a 4X magnifier across my chest, two side arms and a back pack full of freeze dried chicken – and I would be looking for you!

j/k

[jpatter666]

Re: Currency deflation, gold, and iTulip.com

Well, I signed up for two years, so kind of irrelevant to me. :p

But, EJ has consistently been an amazingly sharp and accurate forecaster. If for various reasons, the PM calls began to fail in such a spectacular fashion, I'd expect several things to happen:

1 ) It's likely such an event would be a "black swan" in some form. EJ is almost, but not quite, omniscient ;). I'd expect some sort of emergency posting stating -- the rules of the game have changed. If anyone is going to recognize that this has occurred, I'd hope it would be EJ and iTulip.
2 ) The vast range of extremely knowledgeable people on the site (bart, finster, grg55, etc, etc, etc) give me additional confidence on the call if such a sea change is needed.
3 ) If for some reason the *fundamentals* of the iTulip thesis were proven wrong -- well, we find out what was wrong and work from there. Theories work until they don't -- none of this was handed down on stone tablets.

Now for the REAL problem.

Who'd be willing to tell jtabeb? :rolleyes:

[jiimbergin]

Re: Currency deflation, gold, and iTulip.com

But, EJ has consistently been an amazingly sharp and accurate forecaster. If for various reasons, the PM calls began to fail in such a spectacular fashion, I'd expect several things to happen:

1 ) It's likely such an event would be a "black swan" in some form. EJ is almost, but not quite, omniscient ;). I'd expect some sort of emergency posting stating -- the rules of the game have changed. If anyone is going to recognize that this has occurred, I'd hope it would be EJ and iTulip.
2 ) The vast range of extremely knowledgeable people on the site (bart, finster, grg55, etc, etc, etc) give me additional confidence on the call if such a sea change is needed.
3 ) If for some reason the *fundamentals* of the iTulip thesis were proven wrong -- well, we find out what was wrong and work from there. Theories work until they don't -- none of this was handed down on stone tablets.

Now for the REAL problem.

Who'd be willing to tell jtabeb? :rolleyes:

AMEN! But I would not volunteer to tell jtabeb:eek:

[goadam1]

Re: Currency deflation, gold, and iTulip.com

I'm going to tell my wife how funny this thread is. Then she is going to trow my computer out the window for mentioning itulip again.

Gold can fo to $200 if the dow goes to 100.

I think the hint is that gold could bounce down off any price pre crash levels summer2007) seems an easy number to hit. But I thnk we have seen that any push up will be wobbly until it suddenly isn't.

Well, I signed up for two years, so kind of irrelevant to me. :p

But, EJ has consistently been an amazingly sharp and accurate forecaster. If for various reasons, the PM calls began to fail in such a spectacular fashion, I'd expect several things to happen:

1 ) It's likely such an event would be a "black swan" in some form. EJ is almost, but not quite, omniscient ;). I'd expect some sort of emergency posting stating -- the rules of the game have changed. If anyone is going to recognize that this has occurred, I'd hope it would be EJ and iTulip.
2 ) The vast range of extremely knowledgeable people on the site (bart, finster, grg55, etc, etc, etc) give me additional confidence on the call if such a sea change is needed.
3 ) If for some reason the *fundamentals* of the iTulip thesis were proven wrong -- well, we find out what was wrong and work from there. Theories work until they don't -- none of this was handed down on stone tablets.

Now for the REAL problem.

Who'd be willing to tell jtabeb? :rolleyes:

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Currency deflation, gold, and iTulip.com

The poll mixes some things together, such as:

1. My explanations for what is happening.
2. EJ's explanations (via his 'process') for what is happening.
3. Whether the discussion on iTulip continues to help my understanding.
4. The dollar denominated price of gold.
5. Whether the economy is a major topic of interest to me.

I'll likely be here if [3] and [5] still apply, that is if I'm still thinking about the economy and the discussions on iTulip help my thinking.

If EJ widely misses the mark on some specific major call, such as the dollar denominated price of gold, then the way in which he handles this miss will likely influence [3] the quality of discussion here. If, as seems quite unlikely at present, this drove EJ to become rigid, hostile, and defensive, that would almost certainly kill the value of iTulip for me. If he keeps his footing, in heart, mind and soul, then that could be quite promising, quite interesting, and bode well for the continuing value of iTulip to me.

None of the few choices presented in the poll fit my response, so I did not respond to the poll.

[sn1p3r]

Re: Currency deflation, gold, and iTulip.com

I did not respond either as I think that if gold hit $200 I would run out of tinfoil trying to make a bigger hat and would eagerly search out posts containing 'gold, manipulation'

But I wouldn't do any of this until after I had sold everything I don't need and bought some CHEAP gold

[FRED]

Re: Currency deflation, gold, and iTulip.com

By now it should be obvious that this poll is tongue in cheek.

Of course iTulip.com readers noticed that we did not experience a crushing deflation in 2009 as deflation forecasters such as Mike Shedlock and Rick Ackerman forecast.

If we made that kind of mistake we'd put long hours into trying to figure out where we went wrong with our analysis to explain it to our readers, to try to learn from it as we have from the errors we have made over the years, such as in 2001 when we underestimated the Fed's willingness and ability to inflate a housing bubble. Took us until August 2002 to acknowledge that in fact the Fed was perusing a mad policy of national housing price inflation.

Nor did not offer a bizarre, self-contradictory analysis as some did of general price deflation, falling commodity prices, and rising gold prices.

Our forecast was for asset price deflation and commodity price inflation resulting from government efforts to re-inflate asset prices.

The vast majority of you said that it we were as wrong as the deflationists have been, you'd leave iTulip.com. We think that's fair.

Now I'll close the poll. Thanks for your feedback.

[GRG55]

Re: Currency deflation, gold, and iTulip.com

Now that gold is again closing in on US $1000, and getting the attention of the financial media [who love round numbers], the popular question of the day is "Will Gold Rally Last".

How predictable...:p