Rate of Descent Slows...

[Slimprofits]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's is operating from the same list of talking points as Kudlow and Cramer, quoted 5 minutes ago on CNBC:

"This (jobs report out in 20 minutes) will be the last really bad economic statistic in this downturn."

[GRG55]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's is operating from the same list of talking points as Kudlow and Cramer, quoted 5 minutes ago on CNBC:

"This (jobs report out in 20 minutes) will be the last really bad economic statistic in this downturn."

LOL.

Well that pretty well confirms that the pending GM bankruptcy is going to be spun as a good news story then, doesn't it...:rolleyes:

[cjppjc]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

Think of me, not as someone that buys into the bullshit being sold on CNBC, but as someone that monitors the bullshit being sold on CNBC (and elsewhere).

I certainly didn't mean to impune your judgement. I don't imagine there are too many Larry Kudlow fans in the iTulip community. As an aside I edited his Wikipedia page once, and it was removed.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

suggesting the housing market might be closer to a bottom.

.. this statement is blatantly false.

No, no, quite the contrary. This statement is trivially true.

The bottom is down that-a-way, and so long as we continue falling, we're getting closer.

Nothing in that statement says how close we are now.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

"This (jobs report out in 20 minutes) will be the last really bad :eek: economic statistic in this downturn."

Does that mean the next economic statistic will be better , or even worse than "really bad" :eek::eek:?

[Sharky]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

Actually, the statement is entirely true and accurate. It's just useless. Note that they said "suggesting the housing market might be closer to a bottom."

Of course, *any* decline will bring the market "closer to a bottom". It certainly isn't *farther* from the bottom. It'll be even closer to the bottom next month, and the month after.

No, no, quite the contrary. This statement is trivially true.

The bottom is down that-a-way, and so long as we continue falling, we're getting closer.

I interpreted the statement to mean close in terms of time, not just price, although you could argue that it's trivially true in that case as well. But the same could be said for any jig or jag on a stock chart.

However, my point was the fallacy of using false indicators, particularly in a way that implies something potentially actionable (such as buying). Saying that the rate of decline has decreased says nothing about either how much longer it will continue to decline or how far it will decline before the trend turns up again. In fact, it's just as likely that a turn-around will happen immediately following an extremely precipitous, high-rate decline.

[cjppjc]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's is operating from the same list of talking points as Kudlow and Cramer, quoted 5 minutes ago on CNBC:

"This (jobs report out in 20 minutes) will be the last really bad economic statistic in this downturn."

I wonder if he was one of the people saying Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac, were solid fanancial institutions?

[Slimprofits]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

Initial jobless claims rose by 32,000 to 637,000 in the week ended May 9, from a revised 605,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said today in Washington.

The four-week moving average of initial claims, a less volatile measure, rose to 630,500 from 624,500.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...Yw0&refer=home

I've a lot of experience in the garden. Green shoots my ass!!!!!

[c1ue]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

The green shoots are about to experience an acid bath from the massive spending cuts across most of the states.

Tax shortfalls are coming in even worse than I had expected - if the 40% California shortfalls continue even in the 25% vein... rate of descent will re-accelerate.

I'm already hearing ads on the radio from various teacher, firefighter, etc groups extolling the virtues of higher taxes.

[Rantly McTirade]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

Green shoots-fostered by much fertilizer.:p

[bart]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

Initial jobless claims rose by 32,000 to 637,000 in the week ended May 9, from a revised 605,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said today in Washington.

The four-week moving average of initial claims, a less volatile measure, rose to 630,500 from 624,500.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...Yw0&refer=home

The official U3 unemployment rate shows about 5.5 million job losses since the unemployment rate low in 2007, while the U6 rate shows about 10 million job losses... and my reconstructed U7 rate shows 13.1 million job losses.


Here's claims as a percentage of the total workforce going back to 1967:






Same data, expressed as raw numbers:

I've a lot of experience in the garden. Green shoots my ass!!!!!

http://www.nowandfutures.com/grins/DontWorryBeHappy.mp3

[charliebrown]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

hey bart, what is U7? I think U6 is deficient on underemployed. It does count full time to part time, but NOT good full time to poor full time.

[bart]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

hey bart, what is U7? I think U6 is deficient on underemployed. It does count full time to part time, but NOT good full time to poor full time.

You pretty much have it. It adds back in the "under employed" sector, aka "discouraged" workers.
Here's the definitions of U1 through U7 as of 1982:


U-1 Persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer as a
percent of the civilian labor force.
U-2 Job losers as a percent of the civilian labor
force.
U-3 Unemployed persons 25 years and over as a
percent of the civilian labor force 25 years
and over .
U-4 Unemployed full-time jobseekers as a percent
of the full-time labor force.
U-5 Total unemployed as a percent of the civilian
labor force (official measure) .
U-6 Total full-time jobseekers plus half part-time
jobseekers plus half total on part time for
economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian
labor force less half of the part-time labor
force .
U-7 Total full-time jobseekers plus half part-time
jobseekers plus half total on part time for
economic reasons plus discouraged workers,
as a percent of the civilian labor force plus
discouraged workers less half of the parttime
labor force.


MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW August 1982

http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/1995/10/art1full.pdf

[Slimprofits]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

Another week and another round of everyone's favorite MSM headline.

google news search: Results 1 – 10 of about 1,217 for unexpectedly jobless

http://news.google.com/news?um=1&ned...ctedly+jobless

[mcgurme]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

These kind of assertions by the press just make me laugh. Mathematically, historically, statistically and just about every other way you can look at it, this statement is blatantly false. Just look at any stock price chart to see what I mean. And yet, I think the author probably believed it, as will many readers.

This reminds me of the poor financial models being used by the banking and investment industries. "yeah, that feels like it must be right." I'm beginning to think the problems with banks are just a reflection of the problems with society as a whole....

But is it not true, mathematically, that if the second derivative has changed towards upward curvature (which is what the numbers indicate) that it means the bottom is on its way eventually... unless ... the inflection changes again to negative curvature?

Still, mathematics aside, I agree that it is ridiculous to report such grim numbers and say that it is somehow "hopeful".