Rate of Descent Slows...

[cjppjc]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

Actually, the statement is entirely true and accurate. It's just useless. Note that they said "suggesting the housing market might be closer to a bottom."

Of course, *any* decline will bring the market "closer to a bottom". It certainly isn't *farther* from the bottom. It'll be even closer to the bottom next month, and the month after.

Yes. Of course you are right. It's the perfect answer to the question, are we close to a bottom.

[vanvaley1]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

Why don't 'they' just tell the damn truth so we can get to the bottom and start working our way out of the pit?

[mmr]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/blog/

CA House Prices are Bottoming – But for the Wrong Reasons

Present values of properties at the notice-of-default stage are clearly rising due to the shift in the mix of loans/properties going into default from lower to higher. This ‘mix-shift’ effect may push up median house prices in 2009 creating the appearance that the market is improving when in reality it is because more higher-value properties are defaulting, being foreclosed upon and reselling through the Realtor network.

[vanvaley1]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/blog/

Thanks. Much appreciated. van

[jiimbergin]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

When you are falling and someone pulls a parachute next to you, it looks like they are going up.

Sort of like this headline in Bloomberg this morning.

Job Cuts Avert Catastrophic Quarter as Profits Excel
jim

[ax]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

Sort of like this headline in Bloomberg this morning.

Job Cuts Avert Catastrophic Quarter as Profits Excel
jim

It's neverending with these headlines:

First-time jobless claims retrace to lowest since early April

We're still in April right?

Unemployment Claims Unexpectedly Fall to 631K

Still above 600K, that's bad.

Profit Tumbles, But Exceeds Estimates (name the company)

Fills me with confidence.

It's hard to stay sane while waiting for the collapse.....

[don]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

See iTulip-posted Wiley Coyote's fall.

Hits rocks and ledges on the way down.

Descent Slows....;)

[Slimprofits]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

It's neverending with these headlines:

First-time jobless claims retrace to lowest since early April

We're still in April right?

Unemployment Claims Unexpectedly Fall to 631K

Still above 600K, that's bad.

Profit Tumbles, But Exceeds Estimates (name the company)

Fills me with confidence.

It's hard to stay sane while waiting for the collapse.....

The success of the Special Interest State, the FIRE economy and the msm all depend in part on minute attention spans.

Next Wednesday when the initial claims from this week are revised up, the articles on bloomberg.com and marketwatch.com and Larry Kudlow's rants will celebrate that the revisions came in under expectations.

Two weeks ago, when the initial claims came in at 610,000 that number was celebrated as a possible bottom. Green shoots and mustard seeds!

Thursday, April 16, 2009
New jobless claims fall unexpectedly to 610,000

The Labor Department said Thursday that its tally of initial unemployment claims dropped to a seasonally adjusted 610,000 from a revised 663,000 the previous week. That was significantly below analysts' expectations of 655,000 and the lowest level since late January.

Fast forward back to today and the celebration is on and the stock indexes up because: Claims in the previous week were revised to an increase of 32,000 to 645,000 compared with the initial estimate of a rise of 27,000 to 640,000. The number of initial claims in the week ending April 25 fell 14,000 to 631,000.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

Larry Kudlow declares: "The recession is over and the recovery is imminent."

Larry has lost his mind over the latest initial jobless claims report.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124169922558095847.html

Initial claims for state jobless benefits tumbled 34,000 to 601,000 in the week ended May 2, the Labor Department said in a weekly report Thursday. That's the lowest level since late January.

********

Also note that the initial claims from last week were revised up from 631,000 to 635,000.

http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/e...ta20090476.htm

[cjppjc]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

Larry Kudlow declares: "The recession is over and the recovery is imminent."

Larry has lost his mind over the latest initial jobless claims report.

Larry Kudlow? Please. He is such a hack. You could not get him to get off the Lafer Curve, and Supply Side arguements, with a crow bar.

[flintlock]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

See iTulip-posted Wiley Coyote's fall.

Hits rocks and ledges on the way down.

Descent Slows....;)

So that's good news right?

I heard more talk of the bottom being reached today on the news and I thought of this thread and laughed.

I got into a conversation with a landscaper on a job today, discussing how slow business is, that sort of thing. He finished up by saying, " Well at least it can't get any worse". umm, yeah right.

I've been working on quite a few homes( I'm an electrician) lately that were bought by house flippers, lost to foreclosure, and now are being bought again by a new generation of house flippers. Often at prices I see as still being a bit high for the times. I think a lot of people are thinking that the bottom is already in. I don't agree, but here are some of the rationale I hear.

Keep in mind these are mostly 40 year old homes I'm talking about. Usually in need of significant work. $400,000-$700,000 homes.

1) "historic lows on home prices"! ( No, It was historically low when it was built in 1966, not in 2009) They constantly refer to what the house sold for two or three years ago, as if things will be right back in a year to those prices.

2) "Repairs and improvements will cost less due to desperate tradesmen"!
Some truth to this, but not as big a discount as they think. Lots of contractors have closed shop. Profit margins in remodeling were getting razor thin in the recent boom times. In my opinion, most "savings" will come in the form of lower quality. A "race to the bottom" if you will.

3) Historic low rates. ( also true, but probably not for investor types) And you certainly don't need to buy another house to take advantage of these low rates.

I just sense people are frustrated with other investment avenues, and the ones who have some money to spend( or can still get the credit) are so desperate they are willing to play the house flipping game again rather than brave the markets. I think they will fall flat on their face. At least in this particular area. Too many brand new, much nicer homes, in the same area for similar money. Novice flippers are notorious for underestimating repair, remodeling costs, and added utility costs on older homes. And people forget that if you finance it over 30 years, that house will be 70 year old when its paid for. How many really nice 70 year old homes do you see still standing? Not that many.

[cjppjc]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

[quote=flintlock;96599]

I've been working on quite a few homes( I'm an electrician) lately that were bought by house flippers, lost to foreclosure, and now are being bought again by a new generation of house flippers.

They constantly refer to what the house sold for two or three years ago, as if things will be right back in a year to those prices.

2) "Repairs and improvements will cost less due to desperate tradesmen"!
Some truth to this, but not as big a discount as they think. Lots of contractors have closed shop. Profit margins in remodeling were getting razor thin in the recent boom times. In my opinion, most "savings" will come in the form of lower quality. A "race to the bottom" if you will.




I just sense people are frustrated with other investment avenues, and the ones who have some money to spend( or can still get the credit) are so desperate they are willing to play the house flipping game again rather than brave the markets. I think they will fall flat on their face. At least in this particular area.

quote]

New group of home flippers. Priceless. EVERYTHING you said above is so true. These people use optimistic (bad) math to figure the return on their investment. risk / reward is not given enough thought. Even if you are able get a buyer quickly to pay close to your price, watch the appraisor blow the deal up. And if he doesn't the underwritter will.


I can't stand when I screw up the quotes.

[GRG55]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

I can't stand when I screw up the quotes.

Just make sure you keep the square brackets and everything inside them at the start and end of the previous person's post. Delete whatever part of their text you don't wish to retain.

[flintlock]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

[quote=cjppjc;96625]

I've been working on quite a few homes( I'm an electrician) lately that were bought by house flippers, lost to foreclosure, and now are being bought again by a new generation of house flippers.

They constantly refer to what the house sold for two or three years ago, as if things will be right back in a year to those prices.

2) "Repairs and improvements will cost less due to desperate tradesmen"!
Some truth to this, but not as big a discount as they think. Lots of contractors have closed shop. Profit margins in remodeling were getting razor thin in the recent boom times. In my opinion, most "savings" will come in the form of lower quality. A "race to the bottom" if you will.




I just sense people are frustrated with other investment avenues, and the ones who have some money to spend( or can still get the credit) are so desperate they are willing to play the house flipping game again rather than brave the markets. I think they will fall flat on their face. At least in this particular area.

quote]

New group of home flippers. Priceless. EVERYTHING you said above is so true. These people use optimistic (bad) math to figure the return on their investment. risk / reward is not given enough thought. Even if you are able get a buyer quickly to pay close to your price, watch the appraisor blow the deal up. And if he doesn't the underwritter will.


I can't stand when I screw up the quotes.

I work with a lot of realtors who tell me the same thing about deals blowing up at the end due to the appraisal not working out. One said he got a listing on a big house, but the seller wanted it priced so high, he'd knew it would never appraise out. So he wasn't excited in the least about the listing.

So compared to the house flipping boom days not only is credit harder to get, but larger down payments are required, and EZ credit for speculators is VERY hard to get, so the competition for homes that caused the bubble is way down. Its just not the same game anymore. I think there are some deals out there. But only if you need a home, you can afford it, and you don't plan on selling any time soon.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

Larry Kudlow? Please. He is such a hack. You could not get him to get off the Lafer Curve, and Supply Side arguements, with a crow bar.

Think of me, not as someone that buys into the bullshit being sold on CNBC, but as someone that monitors the bullshit being sold on CNBC (and elsewhere).