Rate of Descent Slows...

[GRG55]

Larry [Summers] was right...we are no longer falling off a cliff, or a table, or whatever.

The Case-Shiller fell only 18.6%...:rolleyes:

Pace of falling U.S. home prices slows

Tue Apr 28, 2009 9:33am EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. house prices tumbled nearly 19 percent in February but for the first time in 16 months the fall did not set a new record, suggesting the housing market might be closer to a bottom.

The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices released on Tuesday showed prices of U.S. single-family homes fell 18.6 percent in February from a year earlier...

...For the first time in 16 months, the annual decline of the 10-city and 20-city composites did not set a record...

...The breakdown, however, was still grim. Of the 20 metro areas, all recorded price drops on a month-on-month and year-on-year basis. Ten areas showed record rates of annual decline.

And historically, compared with their peaks in mid-2006, the 10-city index is down 31.6 percent and the 20-city index is down 30.7 percent. As of February, average home prices across the United States are at levels similar to where they were in the third quarter of 2003...

[ax]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

These articles are getting more and more ridiculous. Consumer confidence also "surged" to 39.2. The economy must be getting better. How long before Citi releases a denial statement today?

[Mega]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

Wur-pee-fu*king-do!
Mike

[WDCRob]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

This is very good news!

In my market (DC) we've seen a 1.25% decline in the YOY rate of decline over the last four months (from 17.32% to 16.06%). At that rate of 'improvement' housing prices will be fully stabilized, with no YOY declines, in about four years.

Party on Wayne.

[aaron]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

This is very good news!

In my market (DC) we've seen a 1.25% decline in the YOY rate of decline over the last four months (from 17.32% to 16.06%). At that rate of 'improvement' housing prices will be fully stabilized, with no YOY declines, in about four years.

Party on Wayne.

That is right around the time the first round of loan modifications will reset to higher rates. It also inline with all those predictions (30-60% further decline) I seem to read about.

[Sharky]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. house prices tumbled nearly 19 percent in February but for the first time in 16 months the fall did not set a new record, suggesting the housing market might be closer to a bottom.

These kind of assertions by the press just make me laugh. Mathematically, historically, statistically and just about every other way you can look at it, this statement is blatantly false. Just look at any stock price chart to see what I mean. And yet, I think the author probably believed it, as will many readers.

This reminds me of the poor financial models being used by the banking and investment industries. "yeah, that feels like it must be right." I'm beginning to think the problems with banks are just a reflection of the problems with society as a whole....

[flintlock]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

I'm beginning to think the problems with banks are just a reflection of the problems with society as a whole....

Bingo! The problems we are having are a symptom of our society in general. I fear we are entering a "Dark Age" of sorts. You can no longer rely on anyone to act with integrity in most matters, be it government, corporations, doctors, lawyers, repairmen, or most anything you can think of. People are losing faith in a system that requires trust and cooperation to work. When that happens, the whole mirage falls apart.

[Sharky]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

You can no longer rely on anyone to act with integrity in most matters, be it government, corporations, doctors, lawyers, repairmen, or most anything you can think of.

More than just a loss of integrity, I've described it before as a loss of principles.

[TRake]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

I agree. It has long been a view of mine that if I want something done right, I better do it myself. Placing trust in someone has burned me far too many times in this life. I no longer give away credit. For someone to gain my credit they must earn it. No, I am not talking about loaning people money either. We have lost our values, principles, .... and most other wholesome ideas that would constitute good people or a good society with well intentioned people.

TRake

[BK]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows - Lost Mobility

"The Census Bureau reports the nation’s mobility rate fell to 11.9 percent, with rates of movement between states half of what they were at the start of the decade.

All told, just over 35 million people changed homes last year, about the same number as 1962, except there were 120 million fewer people then."

I wasn't surprised to see that No Journalist tried to combine these story - surely they are related.

http://www.boston.com/realestate/new..._in_place.html

My family was recently looking for a home to lease - and it was as if No One Else was Moving....another sign of an economy that is stuck. Prices stop dropping when people aren't forced to sell to take a new job or move to a retirement community.

[rogermexico]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

These kind of assertions by the press just make me laugh. Mathematically, historically, statistically and just about every other way you can look at it, this statement is blatantly false. Just look at any stock price chart to see what I mean. And yet, I think the author probably believed it, as will many readers.

This reminds me of the poor financial models being used by the banking and investment industries. "yeah, that feels like it must be right." I'm beginning to think the problems with banks are just a reflection of the problems with society as a whole....

I think journalists are required to prove they never took calculus.

They don't know the difference between the first and second derivative.

[c1ue]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

I love this 'second derivative' crap the media is desperately pushing.

Yes, the economy is no longer accelerating to the downside.

Much like a person who jumped off a building, at some point terminal velocity is reached.

And of course this feels good...until said terminal velocity is converted to energy by impact with the ground.

That's when we get the kinetic energy equation: 1/2 mass times the square of velocity.

And what's the velocity now?

[goadam1]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

When you are falling and someone pulls a parachute next to you, it looks like they are going up.

[WDCRob]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

Just did some more digging on this...

In my complex there were 22 sales from 10/07 thru 4/08.

In the past six months, there's been ONE.

Prices haven't fallen much yet - but it sure looks like they'll have to soon...

[allenjs]

Re: Rate of Descent Slows...

These kind of assertions by the press just make me laugh. Mathematically, historically, statistically and just about every other way you can look at it, this statement is blatantly false. Just look at any stock price chart to see what I mean. And yet, I think the author probably believed it, as will many readers.

Actually, the statement is entirely true and accurate. It's just useless. Note that they said "suggesting the housing market might be closer to a bottom."

Of course, *any* decline will bring the market "closer to a bottom". It certainly isn't *farther* from the bottom. It'll be even closer to the bottom next month, and the month after.

The wishy-washy use of the phrases "suggesting" and "might" is hilarious, no doubt born of mindless habituality.