"itulipians": contrarians or herd followers

[nero3]

Re: "itulipians": contrarians or herd followers

An answer, because I was there and asked the question of my accountant who in retrospect was maybe as dumb as I, was why loan money to the governement at 15-17% for 30 years when you can get almost as much in momey market funds? Plus there was a certain feeling as I remember that inflation was going to continue upwards.

In my opinion the long term trend on inflation turned up already in 1998, or 2001, depending on what leg in the double bottom formation on wish to use in the CRB index. That was the inverse situation to 1981 as Marc Faber pointed out at the time. That treasuries did hit a peak in valuation, 10 years after the CRB index hit it's low is just a proof it's a funny bubble.

[metalman]

Re: "itulipians": contrarians or herd followers

An answer, because I was there and asked the question of my accountant who in retrospect was maybe as dumb as I, was why loan money to the governement at 15-17% for 30 years when you can get almost as much in momey market funds? Plus there was a certain feeling as I remember that inflation was going to continue upwards.

yes... markets are just as stupid today. why hold in money market funds that go up and down with inflation when inflation was peaking you could lock in 15% yield from the gov't fpr 30 friggin years? because markets in stupid mode extrapolate the recent past. by the end of 1983 inflation was under 5%, a 6 mo. cd paid like 9% and there you were holding a friggin tbond good for 15%! and when inflation fell to near 0 in the mid 1980s and cds were paying 5% there you were still holding that nice, big fat 15% bond.

today to buy a 30 yr tbond paying 3.7% you're thinking... inflation near zero for the next 30 years? what? that implies a strong dollar vs whatevertheheckhappens to the dollar over the next 30 yrs. who cares what. we can all guess, right?

nuts. bonkers to buy a 30 yr at these prices.

these's no clearer indication anywhere that the markets are in super-stupid mode.

the situation is 180 degrees from 1980... a total reverse. gold, oil, metals, see the writing on the wall. beginnning to. ultra early adopters like itulip will reap the biggest rewards but the latecomers will do ok, too.

[metalman]

Re: "itulipians": contrarians or herd followers

In my opinion the long term trend on inflation turned up already in 1998, or 2001, depending on what leg in the double bottom formation on wish to use in the CRB index. That was the inverse situation to 1981 as Marc Faber pointed out at the time. That treasuries did hit a peak in valuation, 10 years after the CRB index hit it's low is just a proof it's a funny bubble.

grab a glove, get in the game. we've been playing that since 2001.

[jk]

Re: "itulipians": contrarians or herd followers

yes... markets are just as stupid today. why hold in money market funds that go up and down with inflation when inflation was peaking you could lock in 15% yield from the gov't fpr 30 friggin years? because markets in stupid mode extrapolate the recent past. by the end of 1983 inflation was under 5%, a 6 mo. cd paid like 9% and there you were holding a friggin tbond good for 15%! and when inflation fell to near 0 in the mid 1980s and cds were paying 5% there you were still holding that nice, big fat 15% bond.

today to buy a 30 yr tbond paying 3.7% you're thinking... inflation near zero for the next 30 years? what? that implies a strong dollar vs whatevertheheckhappens to the dollar over the next 30 yrs. who cares what. we can all guess, right?

nuts. bonkers to buy a 30 yr at these prices.

these's no clearer indication anywhere that the markets are in super-stupid mode.

the situation is 180 degrees from 1980... a total reverse. gold, oil, metals, see the writing on the wall. beginnning to. ultra early adopters like itulip will reap the biggest rewards but the latecomers will do ok, too.

why buy "certificates of guaranteed confiscation" when it was clear after aug '82 that equities were on a moonshot?

[rogermexico]

Re: "itulipians": contrarians or herd followers

Hello Everybody,

I want to thank you all for your thoughtful replies to my query. In fairness, I recognize you are not "herd followers", but more likely "herd leaders."

I suppose I'll start to transition into commodities tomorrow. I like the idea that it will be inflation insurance(the temptation among our betters to escape this disaster via inflation will be, I think, undeniable). But for the life of me my conscience can't wrap itself around whether I hope we are right or wrong. If we are right, there are even more troubled times ahead. I do love this country, or at least what our Libertarian founders intended it to be. I'm sad that our best days appear to be behind us.... but our fellow citizens have lost their self reliant virtues. We get what we deserve....that thought makes me grieve less.

Cheers,
Elsworth

We are:

On the razor's edge between inflation and deflation...

At the terminus of a 30 year bubble in financial and financialized assets...

At the end game for a parasitical FIRE economy that will never be resurrected...

Experiencing the entirely predictable final popping of the mother of all artificial booms, which might have been only a small panic but for the existence of a Federal Reserve and Fiat Money system which systematically caused the most massive misallocation of capital in history. The culmination of a process that began in 1913, not 1980...

All these interpretations have the same corollary:

Things are different this time, in a bad way.

The normal goal of investing is self defense against the slow erosion of depredation of your savings by central bank created inflation and confiscation by the government, with some speculative risk taking to try to earn real returns in excess of inflation.

Now things are different and you should have a single goal: Don't get wiped out; don't be one of the poor bastards "in the line".

1) Get out of debt

2) Reduce your expenses

3) Protect your assets

a) Gold -American Eagles for physical. If its IRA or 401 k money, put it in GLD - yes, that's paper gold, but these tax sheltered accounts are all subject to confiscation anyway. EJ allocates 30%. That sounds good to me. Remember, gold is insurance against getting wiped out If it gets cut in half, its because this was all just a bad dream - birds will be singing, and the economy will be so good or the deflation so bad that it will not matter what happened to your gold.

b) Physical Cash, FDIC insured cash deposits and short term (3 to 6 month) treasuries or ETFs like SHY. IMO, longer dated treasuries and most corporate bonds are booby traps. Against official itulip advice, I have been short long-term treasuries.

c) Commodities - take a look at ETFs and ETNs like DBA and JJM or, if you have the net worth, you can do futures contracts and roll them forward.

d) Stocks - select stocks in commodities-related industries are good if you know what you are doing. I think collectibles, consumable commdities and cash in my mattress are safer than the broad indices.

To supplement itulip, read some books and google for videos by Marc Faber and Jim Rogers.

As far as survivor's guilt? First, survive, then you can feel guilty. Remind yourself that all the wealth you can preserve that isn't stolen by politicians and given to the financial oligarchy, or burned by central bank printing will help serve as the foundation for the new economy to follow.

Good Luck and Welcome to Itulip!

[metalman]

Re: "itulipians": contrarians or herd followers

Against official itulip advice, I have been short long-term treasuries.

ya need 'em when you're betting against 'the house'.

gold also is short gov't... you're double short.

[rogermexico]

Re: "itulipians": contrarians or herd followers

why buy "certificates of guaranteed confiscation" when it was clear after aug '82 that equities were on a moonshot?

I believe, as of today, it is possible the 30 year T-bond has outperformed the S and P since 1980. (All in with interest reinvested, etc.) Of course, risk- adjusted return is even better. Can any of you "quants" confirm this or set me straight if I am wrong?

[rogermexico]

Re: "itulipians": contrarians or herd followers

ya need 'em when you're betting against 'the house'.

gold also is short gov't... you're double short.

Appreciate the compliment, but these have been swing trades and not large core positions. It is interesting to do the math, though, on directly shorting the ten year. The common, although illogical, fear of shorting is that "the potential losses are unlimited". Unless you believe interest rates will go negative, (treasuries preferred to FRNs such that you pay to own them!) the inverse is true for being short treasuries. If the ten year yield goes to zero, your maximum loss is about 30% - not insignificant, but not unlimited. OTOH, if rates go to 17% or the dollar index goes to 40, well, you probably have a calculator, too.

[LargoWinch]

Re: "itulipians": contrarians or herd followers

ya need 'em when you're betting against 'the house'.

gold also is short gov't... you're double short.

No, "double short" is not paying taxes.

[nero3]

Re: "itulipians": contrarians or herd followers

Anyone that want to be "cool", and not a herd follower should read this article, then buy an electric bike kit, you get them off ebay, buy a 30 A, 48V battery of the kind in the article, with a 1000 W motor kit. That's the most "cool" toy I have looked into lately. Just plug into your bike, and move around like a zombie.

It's just blows me away, the idea of just cruising around in a regular bike at 35 MPH, for around 40 miles.

http://www.metaefficient.com/recharg...-vehicles.html

[flintlock]

Re: "itulipians": contrarians or herd followers

Anyone that want to be "cool", and not a herd follower should read this article, then buy an electric bike kit, you get them off ebay, buy a 30 A, 48V battery of the kind in the article, with a 1000 W motor kit. That's the most "cool" toy I have looked into lately. Just plug into your bike, and move around like a zombie.

It's just blows me away, the idea of just cruising around in a regular bike at 35 MPH, for around 40 miles.

http://www.metaefficient.com/recharg...-vehicles.html

The problem in the states with this type of bike is not the power, its the fact that you take your life into your own hands when you ride a bike on most roads. If the traffic doesn't kill you, the rednecks will throw bottles at you.

[raja]

Re: "itulipians": contrarians or herd followers

btw, google is your friend. google 'site:itulip gold' turned up everything i just posted. goggle images will give you tons of itulip charts.

Your search - site:itulip gold - did not match any documents.
Suggestions:

• Make sure all words are spelled correctly.
• Try different keywords.
• Try more general keywords.
• Try fewer keywords.

[FRED]

Re: "itulipians": contrarians or herd followers

Your search - site:itulip gold - did not match any documents.
Suggestions:

• Make sure all words are spelled correctly.
• Try different keywords.
• Try more general keywords.
• Try fewer keywords.

Try:

site:itulip.com keyword1 keyword2 keywordN

For:

site:itulip.com gold

Returns:

1. What Gold Bubble? - Janszen - iTulip.com
   
   9 posts - 9 authors - Last post: Oct 6, 2008
   What Gold Bubble? - Janszen Weekly Commentary. ... This is not a prediction that a new gold bubble will happen between 2009 and 2011. ...
   www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=507 - 81k - Cached - Similar pages
   
2. iTulip.com - Gold, DOW and Inflation: Then and Now
   
   Plug in Gillespie's numbers, and the price increases in commodities, including gold, begins to make sense. What doesn't make sense is that while the ...
   www.itulip.com/gold_dow_inflation.htm - 13k - Cached - Similar pages
   
3. Gold Not Getting Killed!!! - iTulip.com
   
   Gold Not Getting Killed!!! News. ... Meanwhile, will gold get killed? Will gold not get killed? Who knows! But we can cling with great consolation to the ...
   itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9555 - Similar pages
   
4. iTulip.com - Questioning Fashionable Financial Advice: Gold
   
   Prosects for gold investment when gold is trading at $270 in 2001.
   www.itulip.com/gold.htm - 70k - Cached - Similar pages
   
5. Gold getting K I L L E D !!!!! - iTulip.com
   
   20 posts - 19 authors - Last post: Apr 17
   Gold getting KILLED !!!!! News. ... why start whole new 'gold getting killed' threads? why not dredge up your old ones? ...
   www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9445 - 119k - Cached - Similar pages

[allenjs]

Re: "itulipians": contrarians or herd followers

don't confuse holding individual bonds to maturity with holding a mutual fund with a certain average maturity and a portfolio which turns over. the mutual fund, unless it is a target fund with a date certain to liquidate, will never mature.

Yes, I understand that holding a bond fund with a mix of maturities is essentially equivalent to holding a bond ladder. Is there any possible scenario where you would have loss of principal after the average period of maturity? I cannot see how that would be possible (apart from outright theft, etc.)

[jk]

Re: "itulipians": contrarians or herd followers

Yes, I understand that holding a bond fund with a mix of maturities is essentially equivalent to holding a bond ladder. Is there any possible scenario where you would have loss of principal after the average period of maturity? I cannot see how that would be possible (apart from outright theft, etc.)

if interest rates rise along the whole curve, every bond in your ladder will lose principle value. because they are in a mutual fund, you do not have the option of holding to maturity- they are always rolled over. you will still collect the interest, but the bonds themselves can certainly lose value.