Rome is burning

[audrey_girl]

its apparently now reached the point where the MSM can no longer ignore the wholesale theft and looting of the public treasury,,,,

so the presstitutes in this telecast (with the exception of Schiff) are now trying to explain things to the sheeple

guess we are now rapidly approaching end game

pretty pathetic;

Exhibit A of a country, society, culture in serious decline:

[LargoWinch]

Re: Rome is burning

so the presstitutes in this telecast (with the exception of Schiff) are now trying to explain things to the sheeple

Schiff makes some very valid Austrian points in a nice to digest format for J6P.

Unfortunately, he is in bed with the presstitutes (I guess you cannot suck and blow at the same time).

Schiff is also in constant need of attention, so much so, that he has now recently started filming himself at home and uploading these clips on YouTube. Nothing wrong with that if done intelligently with new and fresh content, but he repeats the same things over and over and over and over again...

[audrey_girl]

Re: Rome is burning

agreed - that Schiff does grate on the nerves at time and says the same thing over and over again; but to be fair I think he has been correct on the very big macro issues.

remember, for many years he was laughed at and ridiculed.

additional point about the CNN broadcast - I think the most offensive thing about it was the tone, a combination of smugness, sarcasm, and passivity at the same time - hey, they are all stealing from us, but what do you expect and there is really nothing we can do

[Verrocchio]

Re: Rome is burning

Nice post, AG!

I agree that the tone was offputting, but Joe 6P must find their excited comments alarming. The political-economic elites have contrived a larcenous transfer of wealth into their hands, but the dominant impression created by this CNN broadcast is that of blatant criminal theft. These are equally despicable, but very different -- and anyone relying on CNN for information would be confused about those differences.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Rome is burning

agreed - that Schiff does grate on the nerves at time and says the same thing over and over again; but to be fair I think he has been correct on the very big macro issues.

remember, for many years he was laughed at and ridiculed.

additional point about the CNN broadcast - I think the most offensive thing about it was the tone, a combination of smugness, sarcasm, and passivity at the same time - hey, they are all stealing from us, but what do you expect and there is really nothing we can do

He is a great showman; that is a given. I mean when you love yourself so much, what else do you expect? ;)

Having said that, his firm belief on "decoupling", cost his clients dearly and proved to be total fallacy.

Based on that alone, I would not consider Schiff "correct on the very big macro issues".

Besides, I do not recall him suggesting you should buy physical gold and not stocks or Perth Mint paper and such. I mean, can you earn trading fees, management fees, account fees or selling fees on physical gold bullion?

[The Outback Oracle]

Re: Rome is burning

Largo

I'll have to collect a bit of evidence for this and try to get it all in one place. As yet i have little...just a thought process!!!

Like a lot of us Schiff has been mostly right...just way off in his timing. I make the mistake of underestimating the degree of corruption everywhere, from the Universities who teach Economics and business through to the elected representatives and finally to the PTB. That causes me to be out in timing...A LOT!!! I keep thinking that someone will act for the greater good...and it never happens!!! I have experience of Narcissists / Psychopaths in my life. Make no mistake, this is the type of person we are ruled by. Psychological experts reckon that they constitute 1 in 25 of the male population and, by definition, they collect in positions of power!! Make no mistake about this.

I did not think there would be any decoupling going into this downturn, but I am starting to think that you are about to see decoupling begin as some nations start to recover and organise their industries to no longer totally rely on the US market. So, I'm thinking Schiff was right again...just way out in the timing and what would in fact cause the decoupling.
The effect on the US might be catastrophic. Certainly the world will look one heck of a different place! Where places like Canada and the Aus fit into such a world I can't quite figure...except I'd rather be Canadian!!!

[audrey_girl]

Re: Rome is burning

He is a great showman; that is a given. I mean when you love yourself so much, what else do you expect? ;)

Having said that, his firm belief on "decoupling", cost his clients dearly and proved to be total fallacy.

Based on that alone, I would not consider Schiff "correct on the very big macro issues".

Besides, I do not recall him suggesting you should buy physical gold and not stocks or Perth Mint paper and such. I mean, can you earn trading fees, management fees, account fees or selling fees on physical gold bullion?

yes - you are correct as to the issue of decoupling (his biggest call); but he was correct on the housing bubble (years in advance), the failure of the brokerage houses and banks, and the failure of the bailouts, and so far has been correct on the dow:gold ratio heading or reverting again to a 1:1 ratio

and as pointed out by the Oracle, he may just be too earlier on the decoupling issue.



respectfully -

ag

[rjwjr]

Re: Rome is burning

agreed - that Schiff does grate on the nerves at time and says the same thing over and over again; but to be fair I think he has been correct on the very big macro issues.

remember, for many years he was laughed at and ridiculed.

additional point about the CNN broadcast - I think the most offensive thing about it was the tone, a combination of smugness, sarcasm, and passivity at the same time - hey, they are all stealing from us, but what do you expect and there is really nothing we can do

FWIW, this was my first time seeing him and he came across very believable, confident, and polished...lots of credibility at first impression. Giving him the benefit of the doubt, maybe his multi-messaging and oft-repeating is more to get his message out to J6P and others, not simply driven by ego. You guys live and breath this stuff so it's repetitive to you, but in the world of marketing/advertising the rule of thumb is that it takes a consumer 9 times seeing an ad before he/she is typically ready to possibly act upon it. Maybe he is just being a good marketer. Either way, his message is good so I'm happy to hear he's repeating it ad nauseum.

[flintlock]

Re: Rome is burning

I'll agree Schiff does sometimes get repetitive, but then what else is he going to say? He makes so many appearances, hard to have something new each time. He's smart enough to know that commenting on every up and down on the market can make you look the fool vs simply taking a long term macro approach and waiting for the inevitable to occur.

Schiff's appeal lies in the fact he is a good communicator. He also realizes most people won't understand a lot of technical speak so he gives us all those corny analogies he's so famous for. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vweLBpE4mso

[LargoWinch]

Re: Rome is burning

I'll agree Schiff does sometimes get repetitive, but then what else is he going to say? He makes so many appearances, hard to have something new each time.

I don't mind the guy. He is much better than say, Ben Stein :eek:.

Ultimately, I recognize that for gold and/or the end of CB to occur, we need guy like him.

But please, if you "makes so many appearances" and you stick to a macro line, do not film yourself each week and post it on youtube.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Rome is burning

Largo

I'll have to collect a bit of evidence for this and try to get it all in one place. As yet i have little...just a thought process!!!

Like a lot of us Schiff has been mostly right...just way off in his timing. I make the mistake of underestimating the degree of corruption everywhere, from the Universities who teach Economics and business through to the elected representatives and finally to the PTB. That causes me to be out in timing...A LOT!!! I keep thinking that someone will act for the greater good...and it never happens!!! I have experience of Narcissists / Psychopaths in my life. Make no mistake, this is the type of person we are ruled by. Psychological experts reckon that they constitute 1 in 25 of the male population and, by definition, they collect in positions of power!! Make no mistake about this.

I did not think there would be any decoupling going into this downturn, but I am starting to think that you are about to see decoupling begin as some nations start to recover and organise their industries to no longer totally rely on the US market. So, I'm thinking Schiff was right again...just way out in the timing and what would in fact cause the decoupling.
The effect on the US might be catastrophic. Certainly the world will look one heck of a different place! Where places like Canada and the Aus fit into such a world I can't quite figure...except I'd rather be Canadian!!! [Underline is mine]

Oracle my friend, you are putting on the table so many ideas and arguments - some being very broad in nature - that I find it difficult to respond.

So please allow me to narrow down on Schiff, decoupling and timing:


In the end, many many years into the future, it is highly likely that the fiat will be worth a lot less and even disappear.

Having said that, it does not justify a 100% position in real assets and no cash. Why? because the middle game will be very different than the end game and the middle game can be very long or very short. Hence, you have to be aware of where you are in the cycle and how the cycle is shaping; that is essential but extremely hard to do.

Schiff failed to recognize this and although he may be right in the long-run, he provided ill advice to his clients nonetheless.

Since you indicated that you prefer being Canadian (thank you ;)), I will take Canada as an example.

Suppose you are one of Schiff's clients and pay a 3% buying fee (and later a 3% selling fee), which I believe is accurate and outrageous.

Now, lets say you take your USD to "divest out of the US dollar, because the dollar is doomed and Ben is crazy and I have been right on housing". What happens to a $US100K investment?

First you get hit by a left hook due to the worldwide stockmarket decline (decoupling turns out to be incorrect for now):



Then, you say, "damn with this crazy stock market stuff, I want my money back!". Unfortunately, you took some currency exposure in addition to your stock market exposure. Turns out that this bet is also a loser in USD terms and your investment get hit by a right jab:




Overall, it is likely that your return went something like this:

a) Stock market return: -25% to -50%
b) Currency exposure: -20%
c) Schiff fees: -6%

In the end, you are down more than 50% and possibly 75% and your $US100K is worth only $US25K to $US50K not accounting for inflation.

Meanwhile, all you had to do is buy some gold bullion to get out of the dollar without market exposure and without the "Schiff fees":




At the end of the day, I know for a fact that the local hockey team here - The Maple Leafs - will win the Stanley Cup .... someday (last time they did it was in the early 60s).

Of course, I am likely right, but if I bet on this outcome now and wait until they do win the Stanley Cup, I will go broke and that is Oracle, not investing, that is recklessness.

-W.

[WildspitzE]

Re: Rome is burning

yes - you are correct as to the issue of decoupling (his biggest call); but he was correct on the housing bubble (years in advance), the failure of the brokerage houses and banks, and the failure of the bailouts, and so far has been correct on the dow:gold ratio heading or reverting again to a 1:1 ratio

and as pointed out by the Oracle, he may just be too earlier on the decoupling issue.



respectfully -

ag

The decoupling things is a big one in my book, because it was so basic and logically fool proof that even little ol' me made a killing shorting China last year. In the long run I do share some of his and Rogers views re: Asia, but there are also several stepping stones to get there...

I like how he communicates valid concepts so that their easily accessible to people who don't spend their lives on itulip and other economics blogs (meaning, 99.99999...% of the economy). And yes, he has been correct - but so have many others, especially in the Austrian camp.

[jwonks]

Re: Rome is burning

On the subject of repetitive musings, Jim Rogers is way worse. Every single video I've seen of him has him blurting the same lines. I hope the upcoming itulip interview with Jim is fresh and has more elaboration on his theories than what other interviewers have been able to get from him so far.

As to Schiff, I don't approve or disapprove of his macro views and trading portfolio, but he does convey a succinct (for tv audiences) message of smaller government and therefore less intervention and less spending which is something a lot of people can relate to.

[Munger]

Re: Rome is burning

its apparently now reached the point where the MSM can no longer ignore the wholesale theft and looting of the public treasury,,,,

so the presstitutes in this telecast (with the exception of Schiff) are now trying to explain things to the sheeple

guess we are now rapidly approaching end game

pretty pathetic;

Exhibit A of a country, society, culture in serious decline:

Geithner: "The president's said this publicly, I've said this publicly - going forward, where institutions need exceptional levels of assistance, we will make sure that assistance comes with conditions that provide for the necessary degree of accountability to help ensure these firms emerge stronger rather than weaker. And that's a important principle, and we're committed to do it."

His doublespeak flows so naturally it borders on miraculous.

[cjppjc]

Re: Rome is burning

Geithner: "The president's said this publicly, I've said this publicly - going forward, where institutions need exceptional levels of assistance, we will make sure that assistance comes with conditions that provide for the necessary degree of accountability to help ensure these firms emerge stronger rather than weaker. And that's a important principle, and we're committed to do it."

His doublespeak flows so naturally it borders on miraculous.

Yes. Certainly the coaching he has received is paying divedends.