BS or Not?

[jtabeb]

My emphasis added, here's the link:

http://www.safehaven.com/article-13142.htm


I have found astonishing similarities between all of the "name-brand" parabolic bubble patterns over the last century: The Dow in the 1920s, the Nikkei in the 1980s, the Internet bubble in the 1990s, as well as the recent bubbles in housing and crude oil.
Gold is the next such bubble pattern, and it is just now approaching the most intense part of the pattern, where the energy expands at exponential rates.
A detailed look at all of these bubble patterns -- as well as what this growth pattern predicts for gold over the coming years -- is the subject of a new Special Report available only to subscribers of the Fractal Gold Report.
However, I realize this is such a critical moment for gold investors, and that the coming period in gold could be a "life-changer" for anybody who is dialed-into the way that parabolic growth patterns grow and develop -- and then has the courage to act.

[metalman]

Re: Bullshit or Not?

yeh, it's bullshit.

read taleb's fooled by randomness.

use of the word 'pattern' is a dead bs giveaway.

[thedanimal]

Re: Bullshit or Not?

use of the word 'pattern' is a dead bs giveaway.

Not to mention the fact that then they try and sell you their report, and the fact that it's called Fractal Gold Report should at least give you pause.

[metalman]

Re: Bullshit or Not?

Not to mention the fact that then they try and sell you their report, and the fact that it's called Fractal Gold Report should at least give you pause.

fractals, tea leaves, stars, and other magic will not tell us when gold's gonna peak.

[rjwjr]

Re: Bullshit or Not?

fractals, tea leaves, stars, and other magic will not tell us when gold's gonna peak.

Right, only technicians can tell us.;)

[metalman]

Re: Bullshit or Not?

Right, only technicians can tell us.;)

charts are suggestive and indicative but are not evidence or proof.

[*T*]

Re: Bullshit or Not?

Special Report available only to subscribers of the Fractal Gold Report

That's the giveaway.

[nero3]

Re: Bullshit or Not?

My emphasis added, here's the link:

Gold is the next such bubble pattern, and it is just now approaching the most intense part of the pattern, where the energy expands at exponential rates.
A detailed look at all of these bubble patterns -- as well as what this growth pattern predicts for gold over the coming years -- is the subject of a new Special Report available only to subscribers of the Fractal Gold Report.
However, I realize this is such a critical moment for gold investors, and that the coming period in gold could be a "life-changer" for anybody who is dialed-into the way that parabolic growth patterns grow and develop -- and then has the courage to act.

This is certainly true. Gold is where the nasdaq was in around the turn into 1999. If gold was to mirror, it should reach around 2700 USD.

[nero3]

Re: Bullshit or Not?

Just to comment again: It's not bullshit. Certainly not. I started seeing this pattern a long time ago. During 1998, everything else than the nasdaq suffered a strong correction. For the nasdaq the correction was a mild one. Gold since 2001, and nasdaq since around 1991, have moved pretty much identical.

This time, it's only gold that have held up in the same way. Everything else, other than gold, the dollar and treasuries have been hammered. Just like in 1998, just replace gold with the NASDAQ. Now gold is even rising with the dollar. Totally "bubble like". There is also a growing number of "fools" that are interested in gold. Just watch around the message boards, the gold ads, everything around it. It's certainly a bubble, and it's certainly not blown up to it's potential yet. Today I even had a friend that never have bought a stock in his life, ask if it was to late to buy gold. I don't know where he got the idea that gold was a smart thing to buy, as he have been buying into pyramid schemes and those things, that spread through social networks before, but his interest, was certainly a wake up call. I have even heard people talk about gold at grocery store.

However I see some conditions that will have to develop.

Treasury bonds will have to decline in value due to worries about the credit worthiness of the US . It was the decline in treasuries that sent the nasdaq straight upwards. It was loaded up like a coil or compressed spring during the 98 correction, just like gold now, then it got to release all of that energy, when treasuries declined in value. The federal reserve will have to raise interest rates, in spite of a terrible economy, that would hammer the stock market and boost gold. I don't think the stock market and gold will rise at the same time, if it's like some nasdaq repeat, where gold will track the NASDAQ, with a 10 year lag, gold will go to around 2700, the dow will probably drop to at least a 2:1 ratio, that is 5400, however probably lower. It will be the modern day version of the depression, right before they went off the gold standard, when the fed raised interest rates to defend their gold reserves, even the economy was horrible. This is what the fed would do if there was a run on treasuries, not from the percetion of an improving economy, but from the perception of a US totally falling apart.

I think this is the "Iceland scenario".

[Munger]

Re: Bullshit or Not?

Just to comment again: It's not bullshit. Certainly not. DI started seeing this pattern a long time ago. During 1998, everything else than the nasdaq suffered a strong correction. For the nasdaq the correction was a mild one. Gold since 2001, and nasdaq since around 1991, have moved pretty much identical.

This time, it's only gold that have held up in the same way. Everything else, other than gold, the dollar and treasuries have been hammered. Just like in 1998, just replace gold with the NASDAQ. Now gold is even rising with the dollar. Totally "bubble like". There is also a growing number of "fools" that are interested in gold. It's certainly a bubble.

However I see some conditions that will have to develop.

Treasury bonds will have to decline in value due to worries about the credit worthiness of the US . The federal reserve will have to raise interest rates, in spite of a terrible economy, that would hammer the stock market and boost gold. I don't think the stock market and gold will rise at the same time, if it's like some nasdaq repeat, where gold will track the NASDAQ, with a 10 year lag.

I think this is the "Iceland scenario".

I think I've figured out your game.

[Guest]

Re: Bullshit or Not?

I think I've figured out your game.

I subscribed to Nichol's Fractal Gold report for the better part of six months. He's definitely a bit of a waffler. I was not impressed with the service, which was pricey and of dubious value. However unfortunately this observation and the question of whether parabolic patterns are "real" or not are entirely separate questions.

The pattern is indeed highly predictable, and you can certainly see it scattered everywhere in market history. Not sure why one would even bother to insist that a "parabolic spike" artifact does not exist, as it manifestly does - in many different markets. Efforts to disprove or deny this would appear to be time wasted?

Stocks. Grains. Commodities. Housing, South Sea shares. Tulips. Every sector can evidence a parabolic spike somewhere in history. Mr. Nichol's point was, once such patterns reappear and are already 50% sketched in, their trajectory becomes one of the most reliable patterns in evidence in the markets. "Patterns" are just the footprints of mass consensus opinion, or "mania".

Just as manias repeat through history with good predictability, so does the form of the parabolic spike. iTulip covers them routinely everywhere. What's the big deal?

And as for Munger's observation that the above comment represents TROLL-SPAM, I'm equally perplexed by that. Can't make any sense at all of this vague irritability, which is not making any intelligent point despite being irritated. The parabolic spike is OLD HAT. It is E V E R Y W H E R E in the markets. Seems some people here merely have some vague other itch, which they are yearning to scratch.

This is the problem with an overly "binary" view of things. To a binary way of thinking, if this analyst is concluded to be specious, then everything he argues must be specious as well (maybe they figure this is necessary for consistency). But of course the majority of the time even poor or specious analysis can contain parts which are perfectly straightforward and true.

[metalman]

Re: Bullshit or Not?

Just to comment again: It's not bullshit. Certainly not. I started seeing this pattern a long time ago. During 1998, everything else than the nasdaq suffered a strong correction. For the nasdaq the correction was a mild one. Gold since 2001, and nasdaq since around 1991, have moved pretty much identical.

This time, it's only gold that have held up in the same way. Everything else, other than gold, the dollar and treasuries have been hammered. Just like in 1998, just replace gold with the NASDAQ. Now gold is even rising with the dollar. Totally "bubble like". There is also a growing number of "fools" that are interested in gold. Just watch around the message boards, the gold ads, everything around it. It's certainly a bubble, and it's certainly not blown up to it's potential yet. Today I even had a friend that never have bought a stock in his life, ask if it was to late to buy gold. I don't know where he got the idea that gold was a smart thing to buy, as he have been buying into pyramid schemes and those things, that spread through social networks before, but his interest, was certainly a wake up call. I have even heard people talk about gold at grocery store.

However I see some conditions that will have to develop.

Treasury bonds will have to decline in value due to worries about the credit worthiness of the US . It was the decline in treasuries that sent the nasdaq straight upwards. It was loaded up like a coil or compressed spring during the 98 correction, just like gold now, then it got to release all of that energy, when treasuries declined in value. The federal reserve will have to raise interest rates, in spite of a terrible economy, that would hammer the stock market and boost gold. I don't think the stock market and gold will rise at the same time, if it's like some nasdaq repeat, where gold will track the NASDAQ, with a 10 year lag, gold will go to around 2700, the dow will probably drop to at least a 2:1 ratio, that is 5400, however probably lower. It will be the modern day version of the depression, right before they went off the gold standard, when the fed raised interest rates to defend their gold reserves, even the economy was horrible. This is what the fed would do if there was a run on treasuries, not from the percetion of an improving economy, but from the perception of a US totally falling apart.

I think this is the "Iceland scenario".

so... mr. gold timing bubble spotting rocket scientist, when did you sell nasdaq and buy gold according to your theories? those is us here since 1998 sold nasdaq in march 2000 and bought gold in 2001. you?

this is, by the way, a very simple 'yes' or 'no' question. let's see if you can answer it simply and directly.

[nero3]

Re: Bullshit or Not?

I think I've figured out your game.

You should be smarter than that.instead of accusing me make yourself 2 graphs. Use:

10 year notes, and nasdaq 1991-late 1998, you just plug in where treasuries starts to sell off, and the nasdaq starts to run, and end your graph at that date, then use 10 year notes, and gold, 2001 to now. I have even made this graphs, but I don't think it's possible to upload pictures here.

What you will find, is that it's pretty much identical. I have checked out everything, it's only gold that behaves in that manner, it certainly fit if you see the

[Guest]

Re: Bullshit or Not?

For goodness sake. Don't you have a day job guy, rather than sit here and bat these same stale petty challenges back and forth every day? Work is slow right now?

[nero3]

Re: Bullshit or Not?

Here is the charts I made in january, so they are not up to date, but it shows the pattern I am talking about.