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I like Peter, just wish he stop losing me money!
Mike
Of all the things people complain about this, this one has the greatest potential for being the most frightening.
For one, I don't really believe in speculation on food. Food has huge carrying costs. Who the hell wants to speculate in it to the point that speculation is the main driver of the market? Way too risky. I don't believe in Cartels either. Food is not something only a few nations produces -- everyone produces it.
The big problem here is that government intervention will quell any desire to invest in this area... who wants to invest in something you can't set prices in! Especially if there is a risk inflation may take off.
Less investment means less innovation, which means... greater shortages, more price controls, and more. Very very frightening. It's government policies like this which will destroy our economies.
I'm not particularly fearful of printing money.. printing money without massive inflation is just a reward for the productivity and innovation we have produced.
I am very fearful of price controls.
My guess though, is that these policies will have no teeth. Why would a country that profits from exporting food volunteer for something like this? I don't think the WTO is behind this, which does have teeth. The UN? Hah..
Of all the things people complain about this, this one has the greatest potential for being the most frightening.
For one, I don't really believe in speculation on food. Food has huge carrying costs. Who the hell wants to speculate in it to the point that speculation is the main driver of the market? Way too risky. I don't believe in Cartels either. Food is not something only a few nations produces -- everyone produces it.
The big problem here is that government intervention will quell any desire to invest in this area... who wants to invest in something you can't set prices in! Especially if there is a risk inflation may take off.
Less investment means less innovation, which means... greater shortages, more price controls, and more. Very very frightening. It's government policies like this which will destroy our economies.
I'm not particularly fearful of printing money.. printing money without massive inflation is just a reward for the productivity and innovation we have produced.
I am very fearful of price controls.
My guess though, is that these policies will have no teeth. Why would a country that profits from exporting food volunteer for something like this? I don't think the WTO is behind this, which does have teeth. The UN? Hah..
Dude, where did you get your economics degree and which central bank did you work for. You are SO OUT OF TOUCH with reality that I have to assume that you are a Chicago grad (or London) and that you worked for a regional Fed bank.
I'm not particularly fearful of printing money.. printing money without massive inflation is just a reward for the productivity and innovation we have produced.
Blaze, how can "printing money without inflation" be possible?
Also, what is the reward for the productivity and innovation we have produced? I would vote for lower prices, but that is just me.
Last edited by LargoWinch; April 19, 2009, 09:07 PM.
Re: Schiff was right, they going for price controls!
Yes - and with price controls, depending upon the degree of corruption in the system, the black market to white market ratio can be anywhere from a 1:9 to a 1:1 ratio -- typically does not exceed that. That is assuming that the economy does not shift to super hyperinflation Zimbabwe style.
Re: Schiff was right, they going for price controls!
Funny, I was looking for alternatives to PM's for safe haven's from capital and price controls and have been watching the cap and trade and figuring oil was out if it gets initiated and, watching and trying to guess which way it will go.
Food/agricultural was looking to me like a good alternative. Guessing what is going to be subject to capital and price controls is starting to become easy - Just follow the money, If there is money to be found they will tax it or control it.
Re: Schiff was right, they going for price controls!
This is a shot across food exporting countries (namely Thailand) who put exportation caps on food products and went as far as trying to establish a "food OPEC" during last years preliminary inflation scare (of course that was before one of the greatest liquidation periods in history.)
Of course this wont work just as OPEC doesn't work. If the international community by some miracle of God can agree on a standard price for foodstuffs then it better be well above the price of production otherwise the worlds food shelves will get very lonely looking.
As far as Mr Schiff, I think just about everything that he predicts has a high likelyhood of occuring, namely that end game is going to be a currency crisis. That kind of event is about the only thing that is going to wake up the slumbering American public.
As far as decoupling goes, at some point the emmerging markets are going to go their own way at least for a while. They don't have the credit market maturation and excesses we do that need to be liquidated. However, they need to liquidate productive capacity geared to us and redirect to domestic consumption and other trading partners that have what they need ie.commodities, high end manufacturing equipment etc. They should use their accumulated savings for THAT purpose instead of codependently propping us up. Japan reached a period of diminishing returns in the early 80's and have yet to recover.
Mr Schiff was wrong on the dollars strength near term, but in the intermediate to long term I think he is right on point. The dollar will eventually get weaker until it is finally dethroned as the foreign reserve currency.
Blaze, how can "printing money without inflation" be possible?
Also, what is the reward for the productivity and innovation we have produced? I would vote for lower prices, but that is just me.
I (as do most people) define inflation as general increase in prices and not simply a change in the money supply.
Lower prices = deflation = bad.
People are forced to put their money at risk (ie, invest) in order to beat inflation. Taking risk is important to feed innovation.
It's like ante in a poker game. If there is no risk of loss for just sitting on your hands and not taking a chance, you won't. Try it sometime! Play poker without an ante.
It's like ante in a poker game. If there is no risk of loss for just sitting on your hands and not taking a chance, you won't. Try it sometime! Play poker without an ante.
Ah You hit it Blaze!
But here is the the point. I don't want to play poker with my savings for a down payment on a house, or my kids education, or my retirement. Is it morale to put a gun to peoples collective heads so that they will be FORCED to play poker? (While at the same time, the privlaged "poker dealers" play and lose with OPM and then they , not OP, are bailed out by the goverment and rewarded for their gross misallocation of capital.)
It's about Everyone Dealers and Players having to play by the same RULES! Whould you like to play in a poker game (ante or no ante) if the game was rigged to your disadvantage, how would you feel if you were FORCED to particpate in such a game against your will?
(Just trying to put it in persepective using you analogy)
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