Peak everything...

[metalman]

Re: Peak everything...

lol. Great stuff. In college (late 80's) I was a lonely o'rourke fan. I love a contrarian.

Anyway, it's easier and more fun to be a misanthrope than a racist.

reading this.. crying.

the original anti-pc handbook.

[Andreuccio]

Re: Peak everything...

reading this.. crying.

the original anti-pc handbook.

Glad you all enjoyed it. I still have my original copy put away in storage. :cool:

[metalman]

Re: Peak everything...

Glad you all enjoyed it. I still have my original copy put away in storage. :cool:

seriously, where can something like that be published today? the onion is lame by comparison.

[Andreuccio]

Re: Peak everything...

seriously, where can something like that be published today? the onion is lame by comparison.

Um, ... the Internet? ;)

True what you say, though. Only anonymity makes it possible.

I loved that article when I first read it back then. That's why I saved it. There are quotes I still remember to this day, like the one about "'Sub' not being an idle prefix" when referring to the Indian sub-continent, and the Canadian version of Johnny F***erfaster.

But I reread the whole thing just now, a few hours after posting the link, not having looked at it for years. While a lot of it still makes me laugh, I have to say some of it makes me cringe. Maybe I'm just getting soft as I age.

[jtabeb]

Re: Peak everything...

Um, ... the Internet? ;)

True what you say, though. Only anonymity makes it possible.

I loved that article when I first read it back then. That's why I saved it. There are quotes I still remember to this day, like the one about "'Sub' not being an idle prefix" when referring to the Indian sub-continent, and the Canadian version of Johnny F***erfaster.

But I reread the whole thing just now, a few hours after posting the link, not having looked at it for years. While a lot of it still makes me laugh, I have to say some of it makes me cringe. Maybe I'm just getting soft as I age.

Too much "Truth in culture" about the time when it was written? By that I mean wow, some people actually would ascribe to those descriptions back then, hopefully less so today.

[vanvaley1]

Re: Peak everything...

Ha, that's funny. You're kidding, right? Did you see what occured during the Ronald Dumbsfield reign of terror. (Speak the truth and you too can find yourself retired).


Up to O-5 it's about the kind of officer you are, after that, it's how politically connected you are (in the POL-MIL complex)

What did he do to the officer corp?

[halcyon]

Re: Peak everything...

More of the same:


Source: New Scientist, 2008

[Guest]

Re: Peak everything...

Great chart Halcyon - and this runaway depletion of E V E R Y T H I N G leaves me totally perplexed hearing (apparently overly sophisticated) economic analysts talking about our future and deflation in the same breath.

Real resource scarcity's arrival will cause massive inflation. Forget the demise of the fiat dollar. This is where the real, terminal inflation will come from. And what to make of the academic thinking of anyone insisting that under a gold standard or a hard money standard, critical depletion of all the strategic commodities "cannot cause inflation".

They are going to witness the stale and academic falsity of that assertion when the real scarcities begin to bite in hard.

This appointment - where these lines of consumption go near vertical in a final **parabolic** blow-off of consumption, is where the financialized theory of commodity price action is scheduled to fall flat on it's face. At least that much clarification in the middle of growing scarcities, will be a relief.

*T*'s signature byline then comes wonderfully into play. "Thermodynamics is never and nowhere a monetary phenomenon". When the "stuff" (critical resources) that fuels industrial society runs out, the "stuff" holds sway over the "money" not the other way around.

More of the same:


Source: New Scientist, 2008

[goadam1]

Re: Peak everything...

Great chart Halcyon - and this runaway depletion of E V E R Y T H I N G leaves me totally perplexed hearing (apparently overly sophisticated) economic analysts talking about our future and deflation in the same breath.

Real resource scarcity's arrival will cause massive inflation. Forget the demise of the fiat dollar. This is where the real, terminal inflation will come from. And what to make of the academic thinking of anyone insisting that under a gold standard or a hard money standard, critical depletion of all the strategic commodities "cannot cause inflation".

They are going to witness the stale and academic falsity of that assertion when the real scarcities begin to bite in hard.

This appointment - where these lines of consumption go near vertical in a final **parabolic** blow-off of consumption, is where the financialized theory of commodity price action is scheduled to fall flat on it's face. At least that much clarification in the middle of growing scarcities, will be a relief.

*T*'s signature byline then comes wonderfully into play. "Thermodynamics is never and nowhere a monetary phenomenon". When the "stuff" (critical resources) that fuels industrial society runs out, the "stuff" holds sway over the "money" not the other way around.

Good luck to us all, trying to time a Malthusian collapse as a trade.

[Guest]

Re: Peak everything...

Commodities are (IMHO) due to take another nasty dive sometime in June - July, but other than that I'm not sure why you regard "timing them" as a quandary for the next decade Goadam. Just about any time, down around these blown out levels, these are the most straightforward buys for the next decade that exist anywhere today. Of course, they are lethally volatile, but any debate or doubt as to their price ten years forward from now is likely 100% academic at this stage of the depletion. They *must become* very expensive in 2019, or they just won't be available at all. It's a truism to many of us by now, but it sure has gotten submerged during this budding "global depression". This event is the small, short act. That event is the large, long act. Much, much bigger story than the current flap over fiat currencies.

This is what they mean about the extreme distaste which traditionally is part of buying any part of the markets when there is "blood in the streets". Every instinct tells one not to. If it were that easy to buy the bottom of a market, it would be an extremely crowded trade.

GANN GLOBAL CALLS THIS BEAR MARKET - NOW TRUNCATED 03.jpg

[Mn_Mark]

Re: Peak everything...

The chart is b.s.

We will never run out of any of those things.

The reason is that as the supplies dwindle, the price will increase, reducing demand and spurring development of alternatives, or ways of getting more of those commodities, or recycling more of them.

There is nothing to worry about.

It's the same as in England some centuries ago when there was a terrible firewood shortage. The same kind of graph could have been made, showing that firewood was about to disappear. But as the supplies dwindled, the price rose, people were more frugal in using it, and someone discovered that coal served the purpose just fine. Problem solved. Firewood did not disappear.

All this running around like a chicken with its head cut off about dwindling resources is alarmist nonsense.

Reminds me of the bet Julian Simon made with eco-alarmist Paul Erlich. Simon bet that the prices of five commodities to be chosen by Erlich would be cheaper ten years later than they were at the time of the bet, in 1980. Erlich lost - all five commodities they settled on were cheaper ten years later.

[goadam1]

Re: Peak everything...

The chart is b.s.

We will never run out of any of those things.

The reason is that as the supplies dwindle, the price will increase, reducing demand and spurring development of alternatives, or ways of getting more of those commodities, or recycling more of them.

There is nothing to worry about.

It's the same as in England some centuries ago when there was a terrible firewood shortage. The same kind of graph could have been made, showing that firewood was about to disappear. But as the supplies dwindled, the price rose, people were more frugal in using it, and someone discovered that coal served the purpose just fine. Problem solved. Firewood did not disappear.

All this running around like a chicken with its head cut off about dwindling resources is alarmist nonsense.

Reminds me of the bet Julian Simon made with eco-alarmist Paul Erlich. Simon bet that the prices of five commodities to be chosen by Erlich would be cheaper ten years later than they were at the time of the bet, in 1980. Erlich lost - all five commodities they settled on were cheaper ten years later.

I am going to agree. Except the limiting factor could include a die-off or kill-off. Also, transformations tend to be very painful and destructive to systems.

[goadam1]

Re: Peak everything...

Commodities are (IMHO) due to take another nasty dive sometime in June - July, but other than that I'm not sure why you regard "timing them" as a quandary for the next decade Goadam. Just about any time, down around these blown out levels, these are the most straightforward buys for the next decade that exist anywhere today. Of course, they are lethally volatile, but any debate or doubt as to their price ten years forward from now is likely 100% academic at this stage of the depletion. They *must become* very expensive in 2019, or they just won't be available at all. It's a truism to many of us by now, but it sure has gotten submerged during this budding "global depression". This event is the small, short act. That event is the large, long act. Much, much bigger story than the current flap over fiat currencies.

This is what they mean about the extreme distaste which traditionally is part of buying any part of the markets when there is "blood in the streets". Every instinct tells one not to. If it were that easy to buy the bottom of a market, it would be an extremely crowded trade.

[ATTACH]1467[/ATTACH]

My point is if you are so set on doom, trading it seems the least of your long term problems.

[Mn_Mark]

Re: Peak everything...

I am going to agree. Except the limiting factor could include a die-off or kill-off. Also, transformations tend to be very painful and destructive to systems.

I agree. There could be a die-off or kill-off, though I'm not sure how often that actually happens. And transformations could be painful or destructive. The people on Easter Island apparently used up all the firewood and did not find an alternative, and either died or left. So it is does happen. However it seems we've come through multiple periods when alarmists said we were about to run out of things and it hasn't happened. I was a boy around 1970 and remember clearly how the prevailing wisdom was that there would be no oil, breathable air, or drinkable water by 1990 or 2000. And the truth actually was that the air and water were cleaner and there was more oil reserves than there was in 1970. So I'm not buying into the hysteria again - maybe unless someone starts erecting giant head statues all over the place.

[Guest]

Re: Peak everything...

You think I'm "set on doom" here? :p I invite everyone to take their best advice from Mn_Mark on this topic. He's evidently got all the angles figured here. Oh yeah, and parabolic moves in various assets and resources "don't exist". :p No further comment.