Gold getting K I L L E D !!!!!

[pwcmba]

Re: Gold getting K I L L E D !!!!!

Over the last 8 years I have moved across the gold rubicon. What was once emotional buying of futures (over leveraged) on up days and selling on down is now accumulating physical (not leveraged) on down and selling physical on up.

I have made and lost more in futures than many people make in a lifetime. In that context, to end up better than even when priced in USD (while many have lost half or more in the stock market) and now hold geographically diverse vaulted gold makes me very secure.

If I can accumulate a few ounces monthly (for free or close to free) during these swings by taking advantage of volatility I know I am building REAL savings by increasing my number of ounces.

GOLD will NOT go to ZERO like my relatives ENRON stock! I have lost all interest in measuring my savings in USD terms. I now measure it in number of ounces. I don't know if I will stay in the USA so why measure in dollars? During this gold bull market, gold has out performed most/all currencies fiat currencies.

As Jim Sinclair says "do not use margin in anything gold"

Good luck Mega!

[LargoWinch]

Re: Gold getting K I L L E D !!!!!

This guy is the absolute best chart technician I have discovered in thirty years of trading.

So can this "chart technician" predicts how much money the world governments will print this year? next year? in five years? What China will do with their US Bonars? Forecast technological inventions? what about natural disasters? wars?

[Starving Steve]

Re: Gold getting K I L L E D !!!!!

Why isn't my gold going up ever day? :mad: :confused: :mad: :confused:

I said more than a year ago here that owning gold over $900 per oz. is not the same investment as owning gold at $400 per oz; it is as if the gold at >$900 is not the same gold as the gold at $400 per oz. And no-one knew what I meant.

Buy LOW and then put the gold away and forget that you ever bought it. Gold will do well over a lifetime--- better than any other asset except for maybe a home or oil.

And curse your gold every time you look at it. And try not to look at it because gold should never be a religion. (All religion is bad.)

Another beautiful thing about dirty rotten gold is that gains in gold tend to be passive gains and therefore legally tax-deferred until you sell the gold. And why would you sell the gold?

Another beautiful thing about "the barberous relic" is that it is usually divorce-proof and lawsuit-proof. Also gold tends to be fire-proof, too. And gold is international; it's the ultimate global currency, especially now.

[metalman]

Re: Gold getting K I L L E D !!!!!

I Hate You guys
Mike

why start whole new 'gold getting killed' threads? why not dredge up your old ones?

this ain't gold getting killed. this is gold getting killed...



$850 - $480 in < 60 days. in today's dollars that's $2,194 to $1,239!

until then, no more new 'gold getting killed' threads, ok?

mega getting killed? sorry, man.

[Raz]

Re: Gold getting K I L L E D !!!!!

So can this "chart technician" predicts how much money the world governments will print this year? next year? in five years? What China will do with their US Bonars? Forecast technological inventions? what about natural disasters? wars?

Hi, LargoWinch,

No, and it really doesn't matter. The only thing that matters is how the market responds to money printing, how it responds to what it thinks China will do, and how it responds (or doesn't) to any of these things and more - including natural disasters.

Fundamentals which alter supply and demand will change, but - after it becomes obvious to the oblivious - the price of Gold (or corn, sugar, copper and most anything else) will have already made most of its move.
The one thing which NEVER changes is: Human Nature. The basis for technical analysis is quantifying those responses of humans through price charts, then observing the repetitive nature of those responses. Patterns are observed and are then classified as to their reliability. The best source material I've found is The Encyclopedia of Price Charts by Tom Bulkowski. He also has a web site: http://thepatternsite.com/Blog.html

The problem so many seem to have with Technical Analysis is (1) it requires genuine study (hard-ass work) to understand it well enough to put it to a sensible use, (2) it must be filtered through at least some real knowledge of the fundamental backdrop of the market in question, (3) many people tend to overtrade when in fact only three to five really good trades (commensurate with the risk involved) occur each year, (4) people are looking for a crystal ball when Technical Analysis is really just a windsock, and last - but most important of them all (5) emotions tend to ruin most traders.

I'm right about 60% of the time I take trading positions in a stock or future (I trade futures rarely). But I never take profits on all of those 60% correct calls because my emotions cause me to abandon a large portion of the trades. In other words, my TA is just fine, it's my 'friggin nerves that do me in ! :eek:

[rogermexico]

Re: Gold getting K I L L E D !!!!!

If you want to assess your portfolio daily, you got to trade daily.

If you're content with yearly performance, then never mind the daily/weekly/3-month draw-downs.

If it consoles you at all, Richard Russell (of Dow theory) wrote in early April that his 2nd biggest long position EVER is now in gold, he's waiting it to go to $3000-$5000. He hasn't held this big long position in 40 years.

Now, that is a person I would listen to.

Weekly market fluctuations on the real gold time frames are just noise.

And yes, gold can go below $850, and if it does, I'll buy a lot.

Shortly after my last gold buy, there was an article in the WSJ about how a few of the hedge funds that had done well in the last few years were moving heavily into gold. The two managers they profiled were David Einhorn (who called out Lehman and was actually threatened with legal action for recommending shorting them by the SEC - see Einhorn's book) and John Paulson - the guy who made about 2 Billion in one year shorting RE starting in 06.

If you take a drawdown of 15% on your net worth (based on EJs 30% allocation) when gold goes back to $450/oz, you are not only in very good company, you are still beating the **** out of the average investor's or fund manager's return.

Gold remains the classic asymmetric bet. I will buy more if it hits $800 again and I hope it gets there.

[rogermexico]

Re: Gold getting K I L L E D !!!!!

Why isn't my gold going up ever day? :mad: :confused: ( :rolleyes: )

Maybe you can make it go some down more for us. I for one am pretty frustrated at how it stays so freaking high.

Please start a thread telling everyone how healthy the new bull market is, forget U3 and all those stupid numbers. Not enough people are dumping their gold for stocks.

PS. If you can pump the S&P up to around 1000 before labor day, I can go short a few s&p contracts like I did in October 2007 and make some more cash to buy even more gold.

Help me out, dammit!

[santafe2]

Re: Gold getting K I L L E D !!!!!

Gold remains the classic asymmetric bet.

Gold is not a bet. It's not gambling. It's a hedge. It's not a long shot or a raffle. It won't make you whole if it's a 10 bagger over the next decade any more than life insurance really pays off for the owner.

[rogermexico]

Re: Gold getting K I L L E D !!!!!

Gold is not a bet. It's not gambling. It's a hedge.

Unless you are omniscent, buying any asset whatsoever is indeed a bet in the sense you are speculating (or you should be, unless you don't care if the asset performs poorly) on the future value of the asset relative to other assets.

If you put everything into one asset class, that is never a hedge, that is a bet. If you allocate to both treasuries and gold or cash and gold, or to any pair of assets that you think are negatively correlated, you have made two offsetting
bets, and then one is hedging the other. A hedge cannot exist in isolation. Here you are saying that gold is hedge, presumably against a fiat currency. I could not agree more, but a hedge is just a bet that offsets the risk of another asset. Think of selling a futures contract on the S&P (a bet that the market will go down) that offsets a portfolio of large cap stocks (a bet that stocks will go up)

futures, options, long, short, currencies, metals commodities are all bets. hedging is function of what else you own.

It's not a long shot or a raffle.

I think you are confusing my use of the word "bet" in the trivial sense with vegas gambling or lottery tickets, which are bets with terrible odds and which I would call gambling. "Long shot" just means a bet with very low odds of success and a high payoff. A bet could be just the opposite, like when you speculate(bet) on the future solvency of a firm by buying a bond yielding 6% - high probability of payoff, low payoff as percentage of your risked capital.

It won't make you whole if it's a 10 bagger over the next decade any more than life insurance really pays off for the owner.

Of course it will. Make you whole means restore you to your previous state. If gold is a 10 bagger in fiat money and the fiat money declines 90% and you held everything in gold, you are made whole. Even insurance is a bet in an opposite outcome. Here I and EJ both use fire insurance, not life insurance as the appropriate metaphor.(Life insurance is a bet on a non-financial outcome.) Your house can be replaced when it burns to the ground because you have bought an option that expires worthless with very high probability, but pays off big with low probability against the insured event. Options are bets.

I personally believe gold has a potential downside of of $5-600 and a potential upside of $3-5000 absent hyperinflation. If I felt these probabilities were equal (I don't - I think the upside is more likely), that is an asymmetric bet.

[Starving Steve]

Re: Gold getting K I L L E D !!!!!

I have my GE stock which I bought because I agree with what GE does. I bought the GE stock last summer at $33, and now it is $12. I used to get a huge dividend, 14% if I recall correctly, and now the dividend is way down, like 6%.

The lessons to learn: 1.) Don't listen to me because I am a moron sometimes. 2.) Don't let your heart do your thinking for you--- like I did. 3.) Don't invest for a dividend because dividends come and go. In the case of GE, the dividend went down by more than half.

Most all of my stock investments are LOSERS, but I can see a light at the end of the tunnel on my oil and gas trusts. And at least my oil and gas trusts pay dividends while I wait.

As for gold, expect sharp rebounds upward--- only to die-on-the-vine. Gold always fights an excellent defence in a bear market for gold.

Only in the final stage of the bear market for gold will it drop down significantly. That is the bear market capitulation phase. But who knows to what price gold would drop? I think $810 or lower. Maybe it would be $750? Bottoms are very difficult to predict except that the chart for gold would indicate support at these levels.

Finally, I would not fall in love with gold at anywhere near the current price level, and I would expect another sucker rally in gold to $925 because gold fights a great defence. There are too many other great opportunities in other markets aside from gold for me to go crazy over gold at these prices.... Oil is cheap, for example. Long-run, oil looks like a better play than gold. Nat. gas is cheap although natural gas is exceedingly plentiful in North America, especially in the USA now with all of the recent natural gas discoveries.

[Guest]

Re: Gold getting K I L L E D !!!!!

Heck Gold can drift down to $750 with no trouble this year IMO. I'll be waiting with my empty tractor trailer, plus my cousins Vinnie and Rocco's trailers.

There. Rogermexico you've got your perfect contrarian signal now to go out and load the boat with a bunch more gold at today's prices. Lukester babbling about how gold can go down plenty more from here. Time to back up the truck and BUY, BUY, BUY!! It's OK guy (demurs modestly). I don't require any thanks here! To serve humbly for the common good is it's own reward for this modest and unassuming pilgrim. Sometimes I think I should have joined the boyscouts, because this desire to provide inadvertent contrarian signals runs so strong in my nature. :rolleyes:

Only in the final stage of the bear market for gold will it drop down significantly. That is the bear market capitulation phase. But who knows to what price gold would drop? I think $810 or lower. Maybe it would be $750?

Maybe you can make it go some down more for us. I for one am pretty frustrated at how it stays so freaking high. ... Please start a thread telling everyone how healthy the new bull market is, forget U3 and all those stupid numbers. Not enough people are dumping their gold for stocks. ... PS. If you can pump the S&P up to around 1000 before labor day, I can go short a few s&p contracts like I did in October 2007 and make some more cash to buy even more gold. ... Help me out, dammit!

[nero3]

Re: Gold getting K I L L E D !!!!!

In my opinion, Gold takes a hit, as people quantifies the turn in the economy, and as testosterone levels and confidence and spring feelings boost the stock market. Gold is more of a stress hormone measure stick in this market. For gold to really go into a positive momentum, I think it must enter a testosterone boom like when the oil market rallied last year, and that will happen on a weak dollar, inflation, and "jacked" traders, and not the fear cycle that was earlier this year.

[rogermexico]

Re: Gold getting K I L L E D !!!!!

Heck Gold can drift down to $750 with no trouble this year IMO.

I agree. It already hit $690 intraday a few months ago. I would like to increase my allocation but just can't swallow buying more right now at current prices. What gold does in the next year (or even few years, as you say) has no bearing on where it will go in the longer term. I am WEB on gold - please mr. market, mark it down so I can buy more.

BTW- More power to you on shares, Lukester. You may have the impression I am a stock-hater or something. I am not. I owe much of my current net worth to being long in the late 90's with '99 being a particularly good year. For me the tech and large cap bubble of the nineties was like big wave surfing - think Maverick's in northern California. People would correctly point out that it was a bubble, as if to say, "you can't surf that wave, no wave can be that big". I would say, metaphorically, "yes you can, as long as recognize that it is a freakishly big wave and that it can kill you". To extend the metaphor, the current rally looks like a head high swell that will peter out in a few sets, so why bother? That is my perspective, but for those that choose to surf, I sincerely wish them the best. I honestly will only start rooting for you to wipe out if I go short again, which I am not (yet).

Another oceanic metaphor: To me gold is like there is a buoy showing massive wave energy off Maui that has not yet reached the west coast. Looking at the calm beach with flat wave action ( or even the receding tide) tells me nothing about what to expect when that massive inflationary wave of energy finally gets here.

I also get that you are not a gold-hater. Perhaps you are trying to help people avoid short-term pain by rolling into gold at $950. I am trying to warn the 401k asset allocators and the "buy and hopers" that I think the relative long term perfomance of shares will be poor.

[Guest]

Re: Gold getting K I L L E D !!!!!

Metalman bugs me. Why does that guy bug me so much? Just a pain in the azz sometimes with his "iTulip uber alles" shtick and "no radically contrary ideas permitted here unless iTulip has vetted them" shtick. Anyway sorry to mix it up with you Rogermex. Hope you liked the chickenfeathers hat! ;)

BTW I think your preferred assets, stocks, are going to be awesome in the next five years. Surreal action upcoming there IMO.

And think what a treat it will be for the likes of Metalman if I'm wrong. If stocks get flattened for the next three years Metalman will be taunting me, and jeering, and throwing spitballs, and taunting some more, until everyone gets thoroughly bored and goes home - and even then he won't quit. :p

[rogermexico]

Re: Gold getting K I L L E D !!!!!

BTW I think your preferred assets, stocks, are going to be awesome in the next five years. Surreal action upcoming there IMO.

Yes I gathered that is your thesis. ;)I respectfully disagree if by awesome you mean real returns over the next five years, as you have likewise probably gathered from my posts.

Well, that is why it's called bird hunting and not bird shooting!

PS. Appreciated the hat idea - San Diego chicken?