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**nero3** · April 15, 2009, 02:36 PM

Re: Shhh...VIX says Investors Almost Asleep

Originally posted by Glenn Black View Post

http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2009/04/...ix-at-six.html

VIX is now breaking 40, half of the peaks in Nov/Dec/08. Once it clears 30, all will be back to normal.

Has nobody learned anything?

Is everybody nuts?

Buy us off with a few measly trillion $ in subsidies and shovel-ready projects, and we are lulled back into our friendly, soothing coma.

Where is everybody?

Did anybody show up for the April 15th Tea Party?

We deserve what we get from them banksters and the government.

How many people are mad as hell, and not going to take it any more?:confused:

Its a lot of people that are going to be disappointed it was not the end of the world , when we look back at these small blips...

**charliebrown** · April 15, 2009, 03:45 PM

Re: Shhh...VIX says Investors Almost Asleep

i frequently vote for a third party. I frequently write my senator (Durbin is an idealogue, he doesn't care) The sheep are getting fed and led to slaughter.

I had my own t-party today and moved 5 figures of t-bills to muni's. Im worried about the muni market, and will watch it like a hawk, but it maybe the only meaningful, and lawful way of protest i have.

do you think the overlords care about a few thousand people in a park with some signs? The sheep will go home tonight, pay their taxes, turn on sports and forget it ever happened. They will pull the dem, or rep lever next fall because one or the other parties had sex with someone they shouldnt or clubs baby seals. you get the idea.
Until the overlords feel real pain nothing is going to change.

**rjwjr** · April 15, 2009, 04:31 PM

Re: Shhh...VIX says Investors Almost Asleep

Originally posted by Glenn Black View Post

http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2009/04/...ix-at-six.html

VIX is now breaking 40, half of the peaks in Nov/Dec/08. Once it clears 30, all will be back to normal.

Has nobody learned anything?

Is everybody nuts?

Buy us off with a few measly trillion $ in subsidies and shovel-ready projects, and we are lulled back into our friendly, soothing coma.

Where is everybody?

Did anybody show up for the April 15th Tea Party?

We deserve what we get from them banksters and the government.

How many people are mad as hell, and not going to take it any more?:confused:

Has there ever been a serious thread/discussion about what we can do that would really have an impact? Are there groups that are already organized that we can support? At this point I don't know that we're all mad enough to take-up pitchforks, instead we're simply trying to stay informed and one step ahead of the crooks in charge.

Jim Rogers up and left for Singapore and has had his daughter learn mandarin. There's his answer. I like the way he puts it, something like "being in Asia today is like being in London in 1805 or New York in 1905, it's where the action is."

**charliebrown** · April 15, 2009, 04:47 PM

Re: Shhh...VIX says Investors Almost Asleep

if you have any ideas, im all ears. I love this country and dont want to leave. I have roots here. They are strong. im not leaving we need to change what is going on, not flee. you may call me a coward, but i have two small children. although i would be willing to do more to protest, jail or court is not an option at this juncture. (for tax evasion etc.) i grew up with nothing and can live with nothing. however if im out of the picture my children face a life of poverty. hell, maybe they already do, having to pay back $ 10 Trillion dollars and counting

**goadam1** · April 15, 2009, 06:09 PM

Re: Shhh...VIX says Investors Almost Asleep

People, who are usually casual 401k kind of investors, have been bragging about the mini-fortunes they have made on stocks in the last few weeks. One person asked if they should buy C ahead of earnings. Usually I think to short whatever people are yaking about. If someone says buy pet.com or flip a house, then you know it is getting to the end. Now, speculating and daytrading are as hot as ever. What does it mean?

**rabot10** · April 15, 2009, 06:16 PM

Re: Shhh...VIX says Investors Almost Asleep

Originally posted by goadam1 View Post

People, who are usually casual 401k kind of investors, have been bragging about the mini-fortunes they have made on stocks in the last few weeks. One person asked if they should buy C ahead of earnings. Usually I think to short whatever people are yaking about. If someone says buy pet.com or flip a house, then you know it is getting to the end. Now, speculating and daytrading are as hot as ever. What does it mean?

Tulip madness? Just a thought lol

**goadam1** · April 15, 2009, 06:26 PM

Re: Shhh...VIX says Investors Almost Asleep

When my bullshit meter goes off, it is usually correct. What is swirling around has the scent of a herd move but I am stunned to see it happening at this moment. The need to go back to the casino/market is strong with people. I guess after so many years of programing they just keep going. I'm not talking about "investors" and "traders." This is the mood I notice when a bubble is getting to the end and everyone thinks they know something special.

**ASH** · April 15, 2009, 07:18 PM

Re: Shhh...VIX says Investors Almost Asleep

Originally posted by goadam1 View Post

When my bullshit meter goes off, it is usually correct. What is swirling around has the scent of a herd move but I am stunned to see it happening at this moment. The need to go back to the casino/market is strong with people. I guess after so many years of programing they just keep going. I'm not talking about "investors" and "traders." This is the mood I notice when a bubble is getting to the end and everyone thinks they know something special.

My employer is a fairly consistent contrary indicator for market timing. Earlier this week, he told me he went "all in" back into the stock market, expecting a long-term recovery (i.e. not trading a bull market ralley). In the same conversation, he remarked that he did the same thing early in the tech bubble bust. Early.

**stockman** · April 15, 2009, 07:33 PM

Re: Shhh...VIX says Investors Almost Asleep

Re: Shhh...VIX says Investors Almost Asleep

while bears lose sleep for a while...

Originally posted by nero3 View Post

Its a lot of people that are going to be disappointed it was not the end of the world , when we look back at these small blips...

There is nothing more bullish to my way of thinking than having investors lopsided to the cash side (20 year highs) and BEGINNING to realize that the world may not be coming to an end after all. Most bears somehow continue to believe they are contrarians, but that's part of the cycle.

How long this season will last cannot be known, but at least for now spring has come to the equity market. Enjoy it while it last- however long that period may be. Make hay while the sun is shining!

Things continue to be fundamentally uncertain however so I would avoid getting overly confident- that's the trap everyone seems to fall into. A sell discipline- risk control is the most important thing for us- bull or bear IMHO. Lost opportunities more easily made up than lost capital.

Corporate debt trading well- supporting bull case for equities.

Fixed Income Comp and INDU.jpg

ECRI well respected by traders- keeps pointing to turn which is occurring, bears wil choose to dismiss this. If ECRI was beating the depression drum they would be more popular today.

http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1389/

A few other interesting items:

S&P 500 Will Rise to 1,100 This Year, Leuthold Says http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601014&sid=a0SCGuHA4VAM&refer=funds

" Steve Leuthold, whose Grizzly Short Fund returned 74 percent last year betting against U.S. stocks, said the Standard & Poor�s 500 Index will surge to 1,100 after valuations got to the cheapest levels of his career in March. Leuthold, 71, who helps manage $3.2 billion as founder of Minneapolis-based Leuthold Weeden Capital Management, said most investors should have 65 percent of their assets in stocks.
�This market was about as cheap as I�ve seen in my 45 years in this business,� Leuthold said in a Bloomberg Television interview today. �We�re probably going to see the economy start turning upward, not now but toward the end of the year. The market is a lead economic indicator, so the time clock is about right for the market to turn up� "

The bullish camp gets more crowded http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Two-top-performing-newsletters-turn/story.aspx?guid=%7B5E04340F%2DB5B2%2D4B64%2D89CA%2 D41E2F17A5573%7D

Commentary: Two top-performing newsletters turn bullish

"But the two newsletter editors who have now turned bullish are not just any newsletter editors. On the contrary, they are at the top of the rankings for performance since 1980, when the Hulbert Financial Digest began tracking investment newsletters.
The first is Charles Allmon, who edits a newsletter entitled Growth Stock Outlook. It is in first place for risk-adjusted performance since 1980 among HFD-followed services, despite advocating more than an 80% cash position since 1986. Read full story. "

"The second newsletter editor to have recently turned bullish is Dan Sullivan, editor of The Chartist newsletter, also in the select group of services to have beaten a buy and hold since 1980, according to the HFD. In an overnight communication to his subscribers, Sullivan recommended moving his newsletter's model portfolio from its current all-cash position to becoming 50% invested."

**phirang** · April 15, 2009, 08:29 PM

Re: Shhh...VIX says Investors Almost Asleep

God, I'm trying to find the "bull" case in ABX/CMBX spreads... IG12 tightened a bit but VW's do that.

**rjwjr** · April 15, 2009, 08:41 PM

Re: Shhh...VIX says Investors Almost Asleep

Originally posted by goadam1 View Post

People, who are usually casual 401k kind of investors, have been bragging about the mini-fortunes they have made on stocks in the last few weeks. One person asked if they should buy C ahead of earnings. Usually I think to short whatever people are yaking about. If someone says buy pet.com or flip a house, then you know it is getting to the end. Now, speculating and daytrading are as hot as ever. What does it mean?

We have a friend that keeps bragging about how well she's doing with her recent dabbling in the market (first timer). She picked-up BoA, GE, and one other "winner" (may be Ford). My wife and I keep telling her she's crazy, her results so far keep telling her she's a genius.

My theory is that these people do little research or future prediction. They see that stocks are quite cheap looking in the rearview mirror. They don't even care to find-out or ask why they are cheap. Being cheap vs recent history is their sole investment criteria.

**GRG55** · April 15, 2009, 09:01 PM

Re: Shhh...VIX says Investors Almost Asleep

Originally posted by rjwjr View Post

We have a friend that keeps bragging about how well she's doing with her recent dabbling in the market (first timer). She picked-up BoA, GE, and one other "winner" (may be Ford). My wife and I keep telling her she's crazy, her results so far keep telling her she's a genius.

My theory is that these people do little research or future prediction. They see that stocks are quite cheap looking in the rearview mirror. They don't even care to find-out or ask why they are cheap. Being cheap vs recent history is their sole investment criteria.

BoA, GE and Ford, eh.

She probably thinks she has one bank, an industrial conglomerate, and an auto manufacturer, and since they've all gone up the broad economy must be recovering.

Little does she know that she actually has three financial companies and that's why they are all bouncing together...:p

**phirang** · April 15, 2009, 09:07 PM

Re: Shhh...VIX says Investors Almost Asleep

cmbx and abx continue to implode.... WHAT AM I MISSING???

**goadam1** · April 15, 2009, 09:24 PM

Re: Shhh...VIX says Investors Almost Asleep

Originally posted by rjwjr View Post

We have a friend that keeps bragging about how well she's doing with her recent dabbling in the market (first timer). She picked-up BoA, GE, and one other "winner" (may be Ford). My wife and I keep telling her she's crazy, her results so far keep telling her she's a genius.

My theory is that these people do little research or future prediction. They see that stocks are quite cheap looking in the rearview mirror. They don't even care to find-out or ask why they are cheap. Being cheap vs recent history is their sole investment criteria.

That seems to be the case. Maybe they are a contrary indicator or are they are contrary-contrary indicator. The most stocks I ever bought was at the start of Gulf War 2.