Are we seeing any Green Shoots ??

[sishya]

I am only trying to put some contrary news, a little against what most of us believe in.

It looks like the LA Sea Port traffic is picking up. Maybe it is just a bounce from the deeply negative territory(after trade nearly froze last year), which was not sustainable. But the Loading out has improved significantly.

Los Angeles Port Traffic Rebounds

by CalculatedRisk on 4/14/2009 02:54:00 PM

Update note: this is just one month of data, and not seasonally adjusted.

Port traffic gives us an early hint of changes in the trade deficit. Usually I wait until both Los Angeles and Long Beach ports report monthly traffic, but this rebound might be significant. (I'll add Long Beach when the data is released)

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the loaded inbound and outbound traffic at the port of Los Angeles in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). Although containers tell us nothing about value, container traffic does give us an idea of the volume of goods being exported and imported.

Inbound traffic was 6% below last March and 35% above last month.

Outbound traffic was 9.8% below March 2008, and 25% above February.

We have to be careful because of the impact of the Chinese New Year on trade in February, but there does appear to be a significant rebound after trade collapsed in February.

[GRG55]

Re: Are we seeing any Green Shoots ??

I am only trying to put some contrary news, a little against what most of us believe in.

It looks like the LA Sea Port traffic is picking up. Maybe it is just a bounce from the deeply negative territory(after trade nearly froze last year), which was not sustainable. But the Loading out has improved significantly.

Los Angeles Port Traffic Rebounds

by CalculatedRisk...

Also via Calculated Risk this morning:

Biggest drop in industrial output since VE Day
By Rex Nutting
Last update: 9:15 a.m. EDT April 15, 2009

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The output of the nation's factories, mines and utilities fell 1.5% in March despite higher production of motor vehicles and boost from utilities, the Federal Reserve reported Wednesday. Industrial production is down 13.3% since the recession began in December 2007, the largest percentage decline since the end of World War II. Output fell at a 20% annual rate in the first quarter, and is now at the same level as December 1998. Factory production fell 1.7% in March. Factory output has fallen 15.7% during the recession, also the largest decline since 1945-1946. Capacity utilization fell by a full percentage point to 69.3%, the lowest since the data series begins in 1967.

Me thinks the toxic waste hidden in the banks will act as a deadly efficient herbicide on any "green shoots"...

[don]

Re: Are we seeing any Green Shoots ??

Me thinks the toxic waste hidden in the banks will act as a deadly efficient herbicide on any "green shoots"...

Would that be The Last Roundup ;)

[WildspitzE]

Re: Are we seeing any Green Shoots ??

I am only trying to put some contrary news, a little against what most of us believe in.

It looks like the LA Sea Port traffic is picking up. Maybe it is just a bounce from the deeply negative territory(after trade nearly froze last year), which was not sustainable. But the Loading out has improved significantly.

Los Angeles Port Traffic Rebounds

by CalculatedRisk on 4/14/2009 02:54:00 PM

Update note: this is just one month of data, and not seasonally adjusted.

Port traffic gives us an early hint of changes in the trade deficit. Usually I wait until both Los Angeles and Long Beach ports report monthly traffic, but this rebound might be significant. (I'll add Long Beach when the data is released)

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the loaded inbound and outbound traffic at the port of Los Angeles in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). Although containers tell us nothing about value, container traffic does give us an idea of the volume of goods being exported and imported.

Inbound traffic was 6% below last March and 35% above last month.

Outbound traffic was 9.8% below March 2008, and 25% above February.

We have to be careful because of the impact of the Chinese New Year on trade in February, but there does appear to be a significant rebound after trade collapsed in February.

Perhaps it's time to revisit how the BDI is doing, after that nice bounce it had over the last few months (from near death levels).

The inbound/outbound dynamic isn't completely suprising given the dollar. That said, I wonder what we're shipping - how many ships/trillion bucks? LOL.

[Glenn Black]

Re: Are we seeing any Green Shoots ??



Here's BDI compared to crude oil, a major cost in running a shipping line. BDI tracks well with crude, but tends to overshoot crude.

[WildspitzE]

Re: Are we seeing any Green Shoots ??

Here's BDI compared to crude oil, a major cost in running a shipping line. BDI tracks well with crude, but tends to overshoot crude.

Thank you.

Not only relevant as a major cost, but a large component in oil prices tends to be related to general economic activity. General economic activity involves the demand for trade/shipping, and the pricing of such.

Will be interesting to see how the interplay works out if we enter ratchet periods where the economic activity component of oil prices lags the inflation component.

[Glenn Black]

Re: Are we seeing any Green Shoots ??

Thank you.

Not only relevant as a major cost, but a large component in oil prices tends to be related to general economic activity. General economic activity involves the demand for trade/shipping, and the pricing of such.

Will be interesting to see how the interplay works out if we enter ratchet periods where the economic activity component of oil prices lags the inflation component.

I agree. Crude at $50/bbl should be around the variable cost of production for the majority of traditional land-based fields. They made little or no profit to cover overheads, just enough to pay for the barrel they produce.

They keep everything hot & flowing, people employed, but no profits, nothing to cover their immense overheads, repair, exploration, sales & marketing, new jets for the big bosses, etc.

They lose money each month, but have to patiently wait for a turnaround.

How long has Japan been waiting, 20 years now? Add on another 20 years for this one. Two recessions/depressions, back to back. WOW. Similar for Argentina. And we think we have it bad in N. America.

[chrisk]

Re: Are we seeing any Green Shoots ??

It's clear from that port traffic graph that there's a rebound every year around this time. In other words, it's seasonal and means zilch.