U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fell in March as Jobs Losses Hurt Spending

[nero3]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...t3U&refer=home

If the market's can shrug this off, then I take it as a bullish confirmation. We will see. It certainly looks due for a small correction, however in the 74 bear rebound, there really wasn't any.

[EasternBelle]

Re: U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fell in March as Jobs Losses Hurt Spending

Just as EJ predicted, the US consumer is in no good state and getting worse. I think the stock market remains delusional, except for the insiders that get paid to buy those inflated MBS and get the taxpayers to cough up the difference.

Even here in the Middle East the consumers seem to be less inclined to shop for gleaming new cars. For the first time in the six years I have been here, there are serious sales offers outside the month of Ramadan. Car sales are being extended by popular demand...Second hand car sales dealerships are running big advertisements. Clothing shops are running sales just more or less four weeks after introducing their summer collection, can't recall that happening either before. Consumer electronics store in the shopping mall I frequent is totally empty of customers all the time but they dont seem desperate enough to give a really good deal yet.

Eastern Belle

[metalman]

Re: U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fell in March as Jobs Losses Hurt Spending

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...t3U&refer=home

If the market's can shrug this off, then I take it as a bullish confirmation. We will see. It certainly looks due for a small correction, however in the 74 bear rebound, there really wasn't any.

back peddling already? thought the bull market was assured.

[metalman]

Re: U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fell in March as Jobs Losses Hurt Spending

Just as EJ predicted, the US consumer is in no good state and getting worse. I think the stock market remains delusional, except for the insiders that get paid to buy those inflated MBS and get the taxpayers to cough up the difference.

Even here in the Middle East the consumers seem to be less inclined to shop for gleaming new cars. For the first time in the six years I have been here, there are serious sales offers outside the month of Ramadan. Car sales are being extended by popular demand...Second hand car sales dealerships are running big advertisements. Clothing shops are running sales just more or less four weeks after introducing their summer collection, can't recall that happening either before. Consumer electronics store in the shopping mall I frequent is totally empty of customers all the time but they dont seem desperate enough to give a really good deal yet.

Eastern Belle

finally reached india? so much for de-coupling.

here in the states, per ej's forecast last year Fed cuts dollar, Fire sales vs FIRE sales, Duh-flation, and Bezzle shrinks again... the going out of business fires sales are ending, wholesale/retail business closings ongoing, and inflation rising across the supply chain as supply falls. food prices are rising, prices at the local home depot are up... so far, so good, forecast-wise. will the big inflation by q3 happen? we shall see!

[rjwjr]

Re: U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fell in March as Jobs Losses Hurt Spending

I'm amused by the title of the article.

U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Drop as Jobs Evaporate

Who, exactly, was NOT expecting this???!!! This couldn't have been more expected...unless you are incredibly out of touch with reality.

[WildspitzE]

Re: U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fell in March as Jobs Losses Hurt Spending

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...t3U&refer=home

If the market's can shrug this off, then I take it as a bullish confirmation. We will see. It certainly looks due for a small correction, however in the 74 bear rebound, there really wasn't any.

Not too unexpected if you monitor this graph... look at what happened to the "bounce" everybody was looking at ... bang! PI... PCE and RRFSF tapered a bit then ... well, until now. We now have additional data re: retail.

[rjwjr]

Re: U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fell in March as Jobs Losses Hurt Spending

finally reached india? so much for de-coupling.

I actually went long the India market recently using the EPI index fund. I was lucky enough to get in very near the recent bottom (lucky being the key word here). Fortunately, it has had a nice run and I have increased my stop-loss strike price three times.

According to one expert that I heard speak at a conference a few months ago, India has the best population demographics (mostly an age-based theory) in order to support a good productive output/consumption scenario of any other country. Similar to our recent baby-boomer effect. I know there are more powerful macro-economic factors at work that will offset the population theory (thus the stop loss), but so far I'm happily in the black.

I'm not saying anyone should jump in now, but when a recovery does begin (10years? 15 years?), India should become a high flyer.

[rjwjr]

Re: U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fell in March as Jobs Losses Hurt Spending

Not too unexpected if you monitor this graph...

You may be the only one monitoring that graph you party animal.

I jest, thanks for sharing.

It looks like we may enter that phase where an indicator like retail sales may be up .5% month-to-month since it appears to have fallen quite far (which will be reported in big headlines by MSM), but that same indicator will be down 6% year over year (which will be conveniently unreported or barely mentioned deep in the article). Joe Six Pack will be fooled into expecting a recovery at any moment. From the standpoint of delaying, minimizing, or avoiding major social unrest, it may not be such a bad outcome.

[Retired Commish]

Re: U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fell in March as Jobs Losses Hurt Spending

My thoughts exactly. With the housing ATM shut down, Credit of all kinds contracting, and unemployment climbing about as fast as bankruptcies what type of profound thinker would expect anything else?

[metalman]

Re: U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fell in March as Jobs Losses Hurt Spending

I'm amused by the title of the article.

U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Drop as Jobs Evaporate

Who, exactly, was NOT expecting this???!!! This couldn't have been more expected...unless you are incredibly out of touch with reality.

gosh! when the fire econ blows up, jobs in fire related industries vanish and incomes fall, personal consumption expenditures fall, too? who could have known?

[GRG55]

Re: U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fell in March as Jobs Losses Hurt Spending

Not too unexpected if you monitor this graph... look at what happened to the "bounce" everybody was looking at ... bang! PI... PCE and RRFSF tapered a bit then ... well, until now. We now have additional data re: retail.

At my advanced age my eyes are not so good any more. Nevertheless, I don't see any signs of an increase in Personal Income nor any abatement in the contraction in Household Sector Credit Market Debt. So why does the headline say "unexpectedly"?

[WildspitzE]

Re: U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fell in March as Jobs Losses Hurt Spending

To be fair, given that we've all beaten this "unexpectedly" horse to death, the CMDEBT data is old (10/08). I wish it would get updated as frequently as the others I monitor on that chart (which are up to 2/09).

I suspect that I know what our best guess is for it.

At my advanced age my eyes are not so good any more. Nevertheless, I don't see any signs of an increase in Personal Income nor any abatement in the contraction in Household Sector Credit Market Debt. So why does the headline say "unexpectedly"?

[nero3]

Re: U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fell in March as Jobs Losses Hurt Spending

The market is certainly ready for a correction. However, I see in my portfolio, that there is gains in 50 % of my portfolio today even the dow is down 1,2 % (moves in my portfolio today -0,2 %) at 21:47 local time ,with , correction, 3 stocks gaining more than 10 %.

I think it's a sign there might be some accumulation from those who think this is a correction in a bull. That kind of moves were not as visible, during the other "down periods" that occured between october and march.

But then again, who really knows?

[santafe2]

Re: U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fell in March as Jobs Losses Hurt Spending

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...t3U&refer=home

If the market's can shrug this off, then I take it as a bullish confirmation. We will see. It certainly looks due for a small correction, however in the 74 bear rebound, there really wasn't any.

In 74 the market was down over 30%. Are you talking about 75? Are you trying to correlate this to the end of a recession? Do you see stock markets as stand alone entities or reflections of the economy? Are you predicting that the economic downturn has ended? I'm trying to understand what you're talking about.

[Quincy K]

Re: U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fell in March as Jobs Losses Hurt Spending

In 74 the market was down over 30%. Are you talking about 75? Are you trying to correlate this to the end of a recession? Do you see stock markets as stand alone entities or reflections of the economy? Are you predicting that the economic downturn has ended? I'm trying to understand what you're talking about.

I gave up trying to understand this guy when he said that you would be better off to not be armed when an armed intruder breaks into your house.

A lot of empty space between the ears.