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  • #31
    Re: Somali insurgents fire mortars at US congressman

    Originally posted by flintlock View Post
    Let me guess Lakedaemonian. You work for the goverment don't you? Not trying to be confrontational with you, but your answers sound straight from the government handbook. Why find an simple solution when you throw bureaucracy at the issue, and make things more complex than they need be? Perfect opportunity to bring in consultants, middle level managers, and other "experts" to figure this out. All at a cost of only a few hundred million dollars of course. Hell, Obama may even form a new department to deal with this. I mean, these are highly trained commando pirates we are dealing with here. :rolleyes: Anyone smell money?

    I'll try to answer a few of your replies, point by point.

    "Difficulty transporting Teams and weapon systems"?? I'm suggesting you place "teams" on the ship. No weapons systems. Small arms. NOT goverment people. Private security. They are transported by the ship itself. You act as if this is unheard of.:confused:

    My background includes fairly recent and direct operational experience in sub-unit counter-insurgency/peace enforcement and littoral/maritime interdiction of naughty people.

    Having training and experience in a quite similiar environment I can speak with some relevant hands on experience......riding around in RHIBs with Jan Hammer's Miami Vice soundtrack in my head grew old after the first teeth-jarring offshore patrol.


    Example of ships defending themselves against pirates? Pretty much any naval vessel of any size before the 20th century . East Indiamen as a specific example. Armed to the teeth. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Indiamen.

    While speaking purely in a legal context rules of engagement are complex, but I'm pretty sure being fired upon by RPGs is considered grounds to defend your ship. Sorry but I'll take my chances with the law vs some 16 year old savage with a gun at my head. Dealing with stuff like this as a legal issue is absurd.

    If you re-read my posts carefully I have not in any way said self-defense ISN'T an option to consider.

    What I said is that the logistics of putting experienced pipe-hitters and their kit onboard and moving them LEGALLY from A to B to X to Y to Z is the biggest issue for individual vessel protection......simply handing weapons to crews may possess one fewer(desstination port laws against mercenaries) but a couple more problems as well.

    Just one example:

    A Liberian flagged freighter travels from Goa to Capetown...in Goa it takes onboard 4 Ghurkas, 2 GPMG, 2 rifles, 4 pistols......the team successfully repels some pirates approaching armed within 500m...the ship docks in Capetown...the ship is impounded, the crew is arrested, the Ghurkas are charged with firearms violations and acting as mercenaries...which are both offenses in South Africa.

    Just an oversimplistic example of logistical challenges faced.

    "Semi-auto sniper rifles are a poor choice" .Tell that to the SEAL snipers who toasted those pirates.

    I have not read, nor am I privy to, the AAR from the recent action.

    But I understand that 3 shots were fired from quite short distance, by particularly well trained individuals, while possessing excellent overall situational awareness/command & control, and the ability to seize the initiative.

    It does not in any way relate to ships crew who's job is running a ship, not gaining highly specialized, and highly perishable marksmanship skills.

    I agree a 50cal or other heavy weapon. would make a better weapon, but then you add cost and complexity. I know more than a little bit about firearms. I know thats not an easy shot.

    I'm not trying to start a sausage measuring contest but to be honest, amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics....and as I have already mentioned the logistics are the problem of what many suggest in terms of arming commercial vessels.

    But A few well aimed shots would deter most of these guys. Especially when they are trying to "pull over" a massive ship. Face it, they know these ships are under orders NOT to resist. Thats the only reason they try this bold crap.

    I have no direct experience in the AO, but count as friends several who have. Firing a couple of rounds at these Somali pirates isn't going to make them go away......it is likely to stir up shit though.

    Remember, their last contact with the US, THEY consider a massive victory......they are not necessarily going to act rationally as we think.


    They have pirates in the China sea. How many Chinese supertankers they stopping there?

    The Straights of Malacca...through which a lot of Chinese trade passes.....accounts for approximately 1/3+ of all known global piracy incidents.

    My point is why not implement a multiprong effort to stop this crap. Is there any reason a ship should not defend itself AND look to authorities to help with the situation? Like you said, piracy goes on all the time. But when it reaches the point that we are becoming a laughingstock, the people responsible need to get on the stick and either shut it down or turn the ships loose to deal with it themselves. I'm sure you know about the Barbary Pirate wars fought in the early 1800s. At some point it does become worth swatting these flies with a sledgehammer. If for no other reason than to show others we won't stand for it. Jefferson understood this.

    I do understand your point that it ain't as easy as just sending a destroyer out to sink them. I really do. The area is huge. The fact that legal issues are one of the biggest hurdles shows exactly how screwed up we are as a nation. But this is setting up a huge example to other pirates and if this is not stopped soon we will have an even bigger problem on our hands. I credit Obama for realizing this and not ignoring the issue. I'm convinced a heavy hand now will pay dividends down the road. Think people in North Korea and Iran aren't watching this?
    North Korea has been and continues to be involved in maritime organized crime....one recent example is the Pong Su.

    Piracy is one single aspect.

    Large scale smuggling, large scale human trafficking, large scale industrial poaching are a few others examples as well.

    It IS frustrating, but the vast logistical problems faced in this situation is only exceeded by the massive scale of total global maritime security issues.

    If you disagree that's your perogative......I can tell you that from having worked maritime interdiction it's a big job to even effectively cover even a small patch.

    Comment


    • #32
      Re: Somali insurgents fire mortars at US congressman

      A visual for the current problem

      http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2009/04/...racy-maps.html

      Looks to me like the problem is in a few more places than just Somalia.

      Comment


      • #33
        Re: Somali insurgents fire mortars at US congressman

        Originally posted by flintlock View Post
        Why find an simple solution when you throw bureaucracy at the issue, and make things more complex than they need be? Perfect opportunity to bring in consultants, middle level managers, and other "experts" to figure this out.
        That is cutting to the chase. Even if "consultants, middle level managers, and other "experts"". were right, their solutions would be too costly. But mostly they are wrong and in the last three decades the results of their advice is disastrous. For non-believers read David Halberstam, The Best and The Brightest. But it is not only in the War Racket we find the expert phenomenon but across all sectors of society (see thread on Voodoo Medicine).

        Rampant Expertise combined with Complexity as illustrated by the two posts on a Somalian "solution" will lead to Collapse.

        Disclaimer: I am not an Expert but know of too many of them since they are in my wallet.

        Comment


        • #34
          Re: Somali insurgents fire mortars at US congressman

          "I agree we won't be invading Somalia. Why? What gain? It won't happen. "

          Well, it already happened once, the US hired Ethiopia to do it.
          What gain? OIL. Somalia offshore waters are undrilled and have good potential for hydrocarbon reserves.

          "Been there done that."

          Yes, Iraq. Who's next? The greatest pirates are always the great powers (currently the US) stealing land and resources from other peoples.

          I would not be surprised if all this pirate activity was organized (faked) to provide a pretext for an invasion. Current news by mass media is quite unbelievable. American hero crew? Pirates vowing to kill Americans? :confused:
          It just does not add up.

          Comment


          • #35
            Re: Somali insurgents fire mortars at US congressman

            Originally posted by lakedaemonian View Post
            I completely disagree.

            What's to gain, besides absolutely nothing, from invading Somalia?
            Why did they go in the first time?

            http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1239...googlenews_wsj

            OPINION
            APRIL 15, 2009
            Somali Extremists Have al Qaeda Ties

            Another failed state has become a training ground for terrorists.

            A comprehensive international diplomatic push to stabilize Somalia is crucial. In the meantime, the U.S. has to put in place a regional strategy that encompasses diplomatic, economic, intelligence, law-enforcement and military initiatives aimed at weakening the terrorists and enhancing living conditions for civilians.

            Comment


            • #36
              Re: Somali insurgents fire mortars at US congressman

              Originally posted by BlackVoid View Post
              "I agree we won't be invading Somalia. Why? What gain? It won't happen. "

              Well, it already happened once, the US hired Ethiopia to do it.
              What gain? OIL. Somalia offshore waters are undrilled and have good potential for hydrocarbon reserves.

              "Been there done that."

              Yes, Iraq. Who's next? The greatest pirates are always the great powers (currently the US) stealing land and resources from other peoples.

              I would not be surprised if all this pirate activity was organized (faked) to provide a pretext for an invasion. Current news by mass media is quite unbelievable. American hero crew? Pirates vowing to kill Americans? :confused:
              It just does not add up.
              Oil? No? You don't say?

              A minor coincidence to be sure and one that should be ignored completely.

              Definitely do not read this: http://www.netnomad.com/fineman.html

              or this

              http://www.scribd.com/doc/2319048/Hy...-of-Somaliland

              Comment


              • #37
                Re: Somali insurgents fire mortars at US congressman

                Originally posted by lakedaemonian View Post
                North Korea has been and continues to be involved in maritime organized crime....one recent example is the Pong Su.

                Piracy is one single aspect.

                Large scale smuggling, large scale human trafficking, large scale industrial poaching are a few others examples as well.

                It IS frustrating, but the vast logistical problems faced in this situation is only exceeded by the massive scale of total global maritime security issues.

                If you disagree that's your perogative......I can tell you that from having worked maritime interdiction it's a big job to even effectively cover even a small patch.
                I don't think we disagree on that much. My main point is that a weak response on this will only make things worse. I know its not exactly a simple task to stop this, but obviously the past response has been insufficient. I have no idea who is "responsible" for protecting US vessels, but at some point it would be nice to see a payback on some of that money the taxpayers spend on "defense" . If we can find the funds to "liberate Iraq" I think we could also find the funds to actually defend real american citizens wherever they are.

                If you'll reread my post, I asked how many Chinese SUPERTANKERS were stopped by pirates. My guess is none as communist china would turn those pirates into charred flesh without so much as a call to their lawyer. I specifically mentioned that region because I know there is a lot of piracy there. I don't advocate arming every dinky boat. But to let some of these HUGE ships be stopped by some guys in a Boston Whaler is silly. http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/200...f_somalia.html Also note the German frigate didn't fire on these guys. I know they are trying to keep things calm, but at some point blowing these guys out of the water is the only thing they'll understand. Sounds like Obama understands this, and I'd expect some more violence before its over with.

                I'm fairly convinced the weak response to this is more about money than any legal or logistical issue. Perhaps the shippers have figured out they stand to lose more money if a quasi war is fought off the Somali coast?

                Victims tend to become victims because they put out signs of weakness. I'm more worried about how countries like North Korea will see this than any real threat from pirates. Sometimes how we handle these little situations can pay dividends down the road in bigger ones.

                Comment


                • #38
                  Re: Somali insurgents fire mortars at US congressman

                  Originally posted by BlackVoid View Post
                  "I agree we won't be invading Somalia. Why? What gain? It won't happen. "

                  Well, it already happened once, the US hired Ethiopia to do it.
                  What gain? OIL. Somalia offshore waters are undrilled and have good potential for hydrocarbon reserves.

                  "Been there done that."

                  Yes, Iraq. Who's next? The greatest pirates are always the great powers (currently the US) stealing land and resources from other peoples.

                  I would not be surprised if all this pirate activity was organized (faked) to provide a pretext for an invasion. Current news by mass media is quite unbelievable. American hero crew? Pirates vowing to kill Americans? :confused:
                  It just does not add up.
                  Thats interesting. If true then we've surely sunk to new lows. But I doubt it. The last somali visit was a disaster no president would want on his record. I have no reason to think another one would turn out any better. I have no doubt people are after the oil. I just don't think the attempt at it would be through a conventional invasion. In my experience, stuff like this usually turns out to be exactly what it appears to be. Desperate pirates with nothing to lose, exploiting a more civilized culture they see as weak and willing victims.

                  Sorry, but we have oil right off our shores that is not being fully taken advantage of. I don't think we need to travel around the world to that stinking hellhole to get it. Iraq was a better scenario for that. Easy to reach, well established oil fields. When Oil hits $200 bbl then I'll be more inclined to believe these conspiracy theories.

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Re: Somali insurgents fire mortars at US congressman

                    If nothing else, and there must be realpolitik being played here as well, Somalia serves as the Poster Boy of the Other, the current half-savage from Kipling's White Man's Burden. The vivid picture of a lawless land of half-crazed armed Africans in Toyotas and now speedboats runs through America's subconscious- don't doubt it or its effectiveness. I hear it cited frequently in discussions about any number of events.
                    Last edited by don; April 16, 2009, 12:50 PM.

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Re: Somali insurgents fire mortars at US congressman

                      Originally posted by BlackVoid View Post

                      I would not be surprised if all this pirate activity was organized (faked) to provide a pretext for an invasion. Current news by mass media is quite unbelievable. American hero crew? Pirates vowing to kill Americans? :confused:
                      It just does not add up.
                      It's posts like these that display what I perceive to be a significant weakness in the iTulip community.

                      I consider myself incredibly fortunate to have stumbled onto this community several years ago.

                      I had begun my journey in the dark traveling in a parellel direction, spotted the iTulip beacon, and can now see with far more clarity under the light here than when I was alone.

                      I have absolute faith in the iTulip community's collective "wisdom of crowds" on economic and financial matters.

                      But I have to admit that I have far, far less confidence in the community's geopolitical(security focused) acumen.

                      By no means do I think I am a subject expert......just spent some time at a similiar coalface with a hands-on understanding of the difference between a "simple solution" and the ugly reality of implementing it.

                      With the ability to project aggressively out of Djibouti in the North and Kenya being reasonably onside in the South, the US and it's allies possess significant regional infrastructure to surgically project into Somalia if needed and actionable intelligence is developed.

                      Invading Somalia is a gigantic family sized sh!t sandwich.....it is a 4th world toilet.

                      If anyone claims it's about offshore energy, they better have a half-century development horizon......Somalia is worse than a parking lot.....it's a parking lot filled with angry, starving, well armed mobs.

                      Energy development there would be extremely challenging and expensive without the complete lack of localized security and stability.

                      Developing and distributing energy in the middle of Mad Max is madness.

                      ---------------------------------------

                      On the topic of piracy, here's a couple of relevant questions no one has asked or answered:

                      Maritime Insurance.........are underwriters getting crushed? Or are they creaming it by leveraging the threat for maximum profit? What are maritime insurance underwriter policies on armed defense of hulls/cargo? How are their K&R insurance lines going? Are they leveraging that as well for additioinal profit?

                      Crew.........do they receive hazard pay? how are they compensated while kidnapped? How are they financially affected by a seizure?

                      private contractors.......why has a Blackwater/Xe escort vessel in theatre NOT been retained by ANY insurance underwriter yet? Is it because the cost/benefit ratio across their insurance lines doesn't make financial sense?

                      A forum member, using 19th century counter-piracy examples, neglected to mention that it often demanded occupation of pirate ports....which means seizing and holding ground.....which is about as popular as cancer.

                      I'm not trying to be a sh!t stirrer......but I'm just pointing out a weakness in the collective knowledge of iTulip forum members in my personal opinion.

                      It's not a slight on the iTulip community.......

                      In my opinion, I believe the lack of credible open source intelligence merging the global economic crisis with directly and indirectly related(and REAL) local/regional/global security failures is dangerously absent here and everywhere.

                      In closing, again.....I'm not trying to ruffle feathers or put myself forward as a subject matter expert.....I simply place far less credibility on a lot of posts in this arena than I do when compared with iTulip's bread and butter.

                      I'm here to learn mostly, and contribute where I can if possible......but not everything I'm reading here is true...particularly right here in my opinion

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Re: Somali insurgents fire mortars at US congressman

                        Originally posted by lakedaemonian View Post
                        It's posts like these that display what I perceive to be a significant weakness in the iTulip community.

                        I consider myself incredibly fortunate to have stumbled onto this community several years ago.

                        I had begun my journey in the dark traveling in a parellel direction, spotted the iTulip beacon, and can now see with far more clarity under the light here than when I was alone.

                        I have absolute faith in the iTulip community's collective "wisdom of crowds" on economic and financial matters.

                        But I have to admit that I have far, far less confidence in the community's geopolitical(security focused) acumen.

                        By no means do I think I am a subject expert......just spent some time at a similiar coalface with a hands-on understanding of the difference between a "simple solution" and the ugly reality of implementing it.

                        With the ability to project aggressively out of Djibouti in the North and Kenya being reasonably onside in the South, the US and it's allies possess significant regional infrastructure to surgically project into Somalia if needed and actionable intelligence is developed.

                        Invading Somalia is a gigantic family sized sh!t sandwich.....it is a 4th world toilet.

                        If anyone claims it's about offshore energy, they better have a half-century development horizon......Somalia is worse than a parking lot.....it's a parking lot filled with angry, starving, well armed mobs.

                        Energy development there would be extremely challenging and expensive without the complete lack of localized security and stability.

                        Developing and distributing energy in the middle of Mad Max is madness.

                        ---------------------------------------

                        On the topic of piracy, here's a couple of relevant questions no one has asked or answered:

                        Maritime Insurance.........are underwriters getting crushed? Or are they creaming it by leveraging the threat for maximum profit? What are maritime insurance underwriter policies on armed defense of hulls/cargo? How are their K&R insurance lines going? Are they leveraging that as well for additioinal profit?

                        Crew.........do they receive hazard pay? how are they compensated while kidnapped? How are they financially affected by a seizure?

                        private contractors.......why has a Blackwater/Xe escort vessel in theatre NOT been retained by ANY insurance underwriter yet? Is it because the cost/benefit ratio across their insurance lines doesn't make financial sense?

                        A forum member, using 19th century counter-piracy examples, neglected to mention that it often demanded occupation of pirate ports....which means seizing and holding ground.....which is about as popular as cancer.

                        I'm not trying to be a sh!t stirrer......but I'm just pointing out a weakness in the collective knowledge of iTulip forum members in my personal opinion.

                        It's not a slight on the iTulip community.......

                        In my opinion, I believe the lack of credible open source intelligence merging the global economic crisis with directly and indirectly related(and REAL) local/regional/global security failures is dangerously absent here and everywhere.

                        In closing, again.....I'm not trying to ruffle feathers or put myself forward as a subject matter expert.....I simply place far less credibility on a lot of posts in this arena than I do when compared with iTulip's bread and butter.

                        I'm here to learn mostly, and contribute where I can if possible......but not everything I'm reading here is true...particularly right here in my opinion
                        A very constructive post. All wisdom comes from asking the right questions. We used to separate economics and finance posts from other topics. Maybe we need to go back to that discipline.
                        Ed.

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Re: Somali insurgents fire mortars at US congressman

                          "In my opinion, I believe the lack of credible open source intelligence merging the global economic crisis with directly and indirectly related(and REAL) local/regional/global security failures is dangerously absent here and everywhere."

                          Some reading:
                          Pepe Escobar - Globalistan (free on the net)
                          John Perkins The Secret History of the American Empire (2007), Confessions of an Economic Hit Man

                          Zbigniew Brzezinski The Grand Chessboard
                          http://www.amazon.com/Grand-Chessboa.../dp/0465027261

                          Global Guerillas
                          http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/

                          Asia Times
                          http://www.atimes.com/
                          (writings of Escobar, Bharadkumar and Engdahl especially)

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Re: Somali insurgents fire mortars at US congressman

                            Originally posted by lakedaemonian View Post

                            But I have to admit that I have far, far less confidence in the community's geopolitical(security focused) acumen.
                            I think that to be the World's Policeman, Policing and Justice begin at home. We have neither in the current Financial Disaster with more disasters domestically to come because of a lack of Policing and Justice.

                            is.jpg

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Re: Somali insurgents fire mortars at US congressman

                              Originally posted by FRED View Post
                              A very constructive post. All wisdom comes from asking the right questions. We used to separate economics and finance posts from other topics. Maybe we need to go back to that discipline.
                              Maybe.......I'm a bit on the fence with it.

                              While I am a VERY keen student of the personal financial facet of this forum and have adopted the iTulip doctrine, I would really like to see here and elsewhere higher volume and higher quality discussion on how this(and previous) financial crisis could impact farther down stream.

                              iTulip has been hitting big picture economic/financial bullseyes for quite some time.........wouldn't it be great to see equally excellent analysis on the directly related downstream geopolitical and security consequences of what's happening today?

                              I only wish it were possible to somehow combine iTulip with the Small Wars Journal forum.

                              Asia Times link from BlackVoid is pretty good!

                              But there seems to be a substantial void in connecting the dots between the two realms of Finance/Economic and REAL Security.

                              I guess at the heart of the matter.....iTulip has a deep financial/economic bench.......it would be great if we could recruit or develop a deeper geopolitical security bench as well to round things out.

                              Just my personal opinion.

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Re: Somali insurgents fire mortars at US congressman

                                Originally posted by BlackVoid View Post
                                "In my opinion, I believe the lack of credible open source intelligence merging the global economic crisis with directly and indirectly related(and REAL) local/regional/global security failures is dangerously absent here and everywhere."

                                Some reading:
                                Pepe Escobar - Globalistan (free on the net)
                                John Perkins The Secret History of the American Empire (2007), Confessions of an Economic Hit Man

                                Zbigniew Brzezinski The Grand Chessboard
                                http://www.amazon.com/Grand-Chessboa.../dp/0465027261

                                Global Guerillas
                                http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/

                                Asia Times
                                http://www.atimes.com/
                                (writings of Escobar, Bharadkumar and Engdahl especially)
                                And Open Veins of Latin America: Five Centuries of the Pillage of a Continent by Eduardo Galeano which Hugo Chavez kindly gave to Obama last weekend might be suitable reading.

                                http://www.miamiherald.com/news/amer...y/1006696.html

                                To confirm Mr. Galeano's view of history there is WAR IS A RACKET by
                                Two-Time Congressional Medal of Honor Recipient Major General Smedley D. Butler - USMC Retired who bemoans his time spent fighting for Wall Street.

                                http://lexrex.com/enlightened/articles/warisaracket.htm

                                Comment

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