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Re: China, another record
who's buying all the cars, the gov't?Originally posted by Mega View Post
Profits of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size Decreased 37.3 From January to February
National Bureau of Statistics of China 2009-03-30 09:30:25
From January to February, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size (enterprises with an annual sales over 5 million yuan, same as follows) reached 219.1 billion yuan, decreased by 37.3 percent over the same period of the previous year. -
Re: China, another record
Unless all the carmakers including the foreign ones are conspiring to lie about the economy (unlikely), these figures may not be far from the truth.
The fact simply is that many Western economists do not understand un-leveraged cash based economies like India and China. Because tax evasion is rampant and cash hoarding is also rampant (Indians particularly hoard "black money" - i.e. money on which no cash is paid (about 50 percent of the economy)), de-leveraging has little effect domestically other than in respect of the export sector that caters to the West.
There is undoubtedly a massive downturn in Asia but I am still sceptical on the question of whether China and India are in recession (i.e. with more than two consecutive quarters of negative growth).
In due time, we will find out what the truth is. Either the governments are fudging the numbers massively (as Faber says) OR there are still pockets of growth which means the overall economy may not be in recession.Comment
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Re: China, another record
Didn't someone post a picture of a Mercedes police car, they aren't buying Ford or GM.Originally posted by metalman View Post
Anyway it's going to be interesting in places like Sudan or potential energy corridors like Pakistan.
China's Global Quest for Energy, by LCDR Cindy Hurst, FMSO-JRIC Analyst, 2007. This article was previously published in IAGS Energy Security Journal, January 2007.
http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil/doc...squest0107.pdfComment
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Re: China, another record
How is China's economy doing? Hard to say. We created this chart from data on Output and Growth Rate of Major Industrial Products from the National Bureau of Statistics of China web site back in February 2009.
The data on power demand (off 12.4%), internal combustion engines (off 50.4%) and semiconductor circuits (off 19.5%), struck us as telling.
December 2008 year over year data
We went back today to the site to compare the 2008 data to the latest. Alas, the data on those major industrial items that indicate rapidly declining output have either been re-categorized or removed entirely, leaving--surprise!--only minor items like fax machines showing significant negative growth.
Automobiles, not even a category in February's report of December 2008 data were up more than 22% year over year in the March 2009 report of February 2009 year over year growth. Internal combustion engines, presumably a critical component of autos, were off more than 50% in December 2008 but are not listed in the latest report. Instead, a more general category "Engines" is listed, off a more modest 7.8%.
February 2009 year over year data
Power is not reported at all, except capacity. Wait, are these output data or capacity data?
Oh, never mind. Details, details. The Chinese government reports strong GDP growth. Why should we doubt them?
Ed.Comment
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Re: China, another record
Now...........Don't go all "Marc Faber" on me!
MikeComment
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Re: China, another record
You've nailed it. I concede the argument.Originally posted by FRED View PostHow is China's economy doing? Hard to say. We created this chart from data on Output and Growth Rate of Major Industrial Products from the National Bureau of Statistics of China web site back in February 2009.
The data on power demand (off 12.4%), internal combustion engines (off 50.4%) and semiconductor circuits (off 19.5%), struck us as telling.
December 2008 year over year data
We went back today to the site to compare the 2008 data to the latest. Alas, the data on those major industrial items that indicate rapidly declining output have either been re-categorized or removed entirely, leaving--surprise!--only minor items like fax machines showing significant negative growth.
Automobiles, not even a category in February's report of December 2008 data were up more than 22% year over year in the March 2009 report of February 2009 year over year growth. Internal combustion engines, presumably a critical component of autos, were off more than 50% in December 2008 but are not listed in the latest report. Instead, a more general category "Engines" is listed, off a more modest 7.8%.
February 2009 year over year data
Power is not reported at all, except capacity. Wait, are these output data or capacity data?
Oh, never mind. Details, details. The Chinese government reports strong GDP growth. Why should we doubt them?
The only question is how long the figures will keep going lower. My guess (based on recent statistics for Chinese domestic steel demand) is that the economy may recover by 2010. The US and Western Europe won't recover by 2010.Comment
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