Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

[nero3]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

The bottom line is that many of us are investing substantial portions of our net worth and/or trying to best protect a substantial portion of our net worth. We all make decisions for ourselves, most of us after having done some research and having considered alternative viewpoints.

Do we put our faith in the iTulip thesis or the nero3 thesis? Obviously, we are entertaining your contrary thesis on the iTulip web site because the vast majority of us agree with the iTulip thesis, especially in light of the tremendous track record of calling events before they occur. That may be why you think most of us are clueless.

If you are looking for agreement and reinforcement to your thoughts and ideas, nero3, a forum in which most of the participants beleive in a contrary thesis (iTulip) is likely not your best venue. Try motleyfool.com or something similar as I assume they have a forum of hard-charging traders like yourself. Don't quit posting here, however, as your viewpoint generates some great discussions.

I don't know if it was in this thread, but I saw some discussions mentioning Warren Buffet. I think the genius of him, is more the mistakes he avoid, than all the brilliant stuff he does. I have always thought of him as rather conservative when it comes to selecting investments. On him selling out. It's not that simple to let's say dump all of his stocks, and then buy them back. We are talking huge volumes. It's much harder for him than anyone else, and it was not much of his stocks that had exessive valuations. He also thought the worst was over last year after bear sterns, then he wrote he was buying in October, certainly a great call, but the US market's did not bottom out before March, even many stocks and most stock exchanges bottomed out in November. Some of his deals did not look that great for a while, but they are turning more and more green now. I think he are kind of hard nosed and have a different fear/greed response than most others. There are several smart things he could have done. Most of the things are in the line of buying businesses like BNI, POSCO, that kind of stuff, before they took off, in like 2002-2003, like he did with Petrochina, but I have noticed that Warren Buffet have a habit of buying 5 years into a bull-market. On of his theories is that the market's move in 16 year cycles of inflation and deflation (buffet refer to a period as the 1980-1990-s as deflation), so seen through that view, it certainly makes sense to buy 5 year into a bull, and really ride the trend. It's easier to identify a stock early into a bull through a screening (he is a growth investor), than it is to buy stocks on the hope that they will get on the right trend and earn high returns on equity, and all the other things he look for. His method means he miss some of the ride, but he is less likely to suffer a loss. I think Buffet use 1998 as the magic date, so using his kind of thinking this inflation era should turn somewhere around 2014. I don't remember where that article is, but it's very interesting, certainly worth reading.

[Munger]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

I don't know if it was in this thread, but I saw some discussions mentioning Warren Buffet. I think the genius of him, is more the mistakes he avoid, than all the brilliant stuff he does. I have always thought of him as rather conservative when it comes to selecting investments. On him selling out. It's not that simple to let's say dump all of his stocks, and then buy them back. We are talking huge volumes. It's much harder for him than anyone else, and it was not much of his stocks that had exessive valuations. He also thought the worst was over last year after bear sterns, then he wrote he was buying in October, certainly a great call, but the US market's did not bottom out before March, even many stocks and most stock exchanges bottomed out in November. Some of his deals did not look that great for a while, but they are turning more and more green now. I think he are kind of hard nosed and have a different fear/greed response than most others. There are several smart things he could have done. Most of the things are in the line of buying businesses like BNI, POSCO, that kind of stuff, before they took off, in like 2002-2003, like he did with Petrochina, but I have noticed that Warren Buffet have a habit of buying 5 years into a bull-market. On of his theories is that the market's move in 16 year cycles of inflation and deflation (buffet refer to a period as the 1980-1990-s as deflation), so seen through that view, it certainly makes sense to buy 5 year into a bull, and really ride the trend. It's easier to identify a stock early into a bull through a screening (he is a growth investor), than it is to buy stocks on the hope that they will get on the right trend and earn high returns on equity, and all the other things he look for. His method means he miss some of the ride, but he is less likely to suffer a loss.

Paragraphs. Look into them. Periods. Look into them. Comma splices. Look into them. SERIOUSLY.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

At my age, your convictions and energy just plain wear me out. I'm buying more physical gold then taking a nap.

I'm older ;). Nap first, then gold.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

I'd just announce, that there is not all posts in this thread that I can see, and if have been that way for a while, that's a choice I have made,as I can't give audience to ...

Dang - jolly good idea chap. Plonk.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

For GOLD bulls there is more at stake than 'just missing' a rally if the nominal lows hold (in stocks) and all this money printing begins to accomplish Irving's Fisher's objective.

Just saying you should TRY to consider both sides, don't be blind to the risk of being WRONG and being caught wih too many chips on the wrong side of the table.

[ATTACH]1397[/ATTACH]

Even a 'bear market' rally such as that little 1975 rally could be damaging to your p&l if too heavily weighted to gold and avoiding all stock exposure (much less short equities- yikes).

Great chart once again stockman.

I would be currious to see the same, but with removing gold and energy stocks (and other inflation-edges) out of the S&P500 during that period.

The difference between gold and this new adjusted S&P would be even more striking...