Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

[Fat Hampster]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

No, that is not my reasoning for being long, but more an observation I have made. Now it's no longer "china growing into heaven, needing everything," I hear from them,

while I was saying to them that the baltic dry was going to crash, and china would overheat and the world would crash into a global recession, I was going as far as to say those dry bulk shipping company was lucky to still be in business 1 year into the future, only to get the deaf ear, When the index was at around 11000 making a double top I said to them (only to hear from them what a nonsense technical analysis was, I predicted it to go to 1500, but it went much further, and faster down than what I predicted. Now these same guys are pretty much sucking up to the deflation story, talking about japan, even they know nothing about japan other than the surface similarity, and that the world is pretty much coming to the end. I had an interest for Japan back in around 2006-2007, but I quickly realised last year, from what experts that went onto that "bandwagon", that it was not going to go that way. In around november, it was even a temporary distortion that caused the market for treasuries to signal deflation. Of course that sent bubble heads, such as mish, on a ego trip. I started to get more and more bullish in october- november. Back then, especially in 2007 when things were overheating, people were using "fundamentals" as reasons for justifying absurd valuations, especially in the chinese, and other emerging market's, but they failed to discount the overheating, that of course caused smart money, such as warren buffet with his petrochina stake, to cash out. Now, even things look bad, I think it's time to look at the fundamentals, and have been for a long time. A lot of the structural arguments, made during the boom, is in my opinion valid, it's just that the emerging economies were overheating, and things getting really stretched back then, and now that valuations are down, it's time to look at the longer term fundamentals again.

Thank you for the response.

I do not read Mish. The financial analysis is rich with details but the macro-economic analysis is superficial and contradictory. Ungrounded, is the word? Not a help to me.

If Warren Buffett is "smart money" why did he not exit the stock market in 2007 and preserve his money, his investors' money and his credit rating? Even I knew to do that.

He has no macro theory and brags about this fact. Or rather he used to do so.

Warren Buffett proves of the phrase "Genius is a rising market." He uses his contacts to pick leaders in industries. This genius works only when the economy is expanding.

The "boom" as you call it? What caused it?

I agree the booms were caused by the FIRE Economy. I see no other strong case made and I read very many sites.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

I'll answer your question. One year ago I was shorting oil. And I burned myself, because I was months to early. That's how life is.

Aha - that reminds me of the only time I ever went short oil - Proshares Ultrashort Oil & Gas (DUG), purchased July 8, 2008. . Made back some of the money I lost on James Dines' uranium hot tips .

[kartius919]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

Maybe require people to wait at least 6 months or a year before they can change their title.

Or have the nickname be in addition to a generic title.

What troubles me about the title is that it connotes a more extensive relationship with iTulip than an ordinary member be it through time, personal relationships, or more extensive knowledge. True or not, it does create some confusion.

[FRED]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

Maybe require people to wait at least 6 months or a year before they can change their title.

Or have the nickname be in addition to a generic title.

What troubles me about the title is that it connotes a more extensive relationship with iTulip than an ordinary member be it through time, personal relationships, or more extensive knowledge. True or not, it does create some confusion.

Okay, thanks. Will change the criteria to make earning the title more rigorous.

[jtabeb]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

Nero3 - meet Metalman. Metalman, meet Nero3. Both of you guys are not as stupid as the other guy would like to assume. This general state of uneasiness is called "the iTulip syndrome". It is a condition of constant unease with having a good grip on all your premises. There is no going back. You took a seemingly harmless stroll, just to clear your thoughts, and while strolling, you wandered out onto a pensinsula. Then the tide came up, and the peninsula turned into an island. Now you are stranded, and all the normal people are elsewhere! :p

Yep, it's a dickfer! "what's a dickfer?" "you know, to pee with!"

http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3421

I'm like, we are REALLY ARGUING OVER THIS?!? Because we are comparing this to the 1970's. How bout an appropriate historical period, as in the above link. If you are ARGUING that this is like the 70's then hey more power to ya. But if you think this is the early stages of a global depression, you guys NERO and Luke are NUTS.

(Just a guy who flies planes for a living, mind you)

[metalman]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

Yep, it's a dickfer! "what's a dickfer?" "you know, to pee with!"

http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3421

I'm like, we are REALLY ARGUING OVER THIS?!? Because we are comparing this to the 1970's. How bout an appropriate historical period, as in the above link. If you are ARGUING that this is like the 70's then hey more power to ya. But if you think this is the early stages of a global depression, you guys NERO and Luke are NUTS.

(Just a guy who flies planes for a living, mind you)

stop it with the facts and data and such. didn't you know bull markets in depressions are common? to be fair, nero is in commie norway... as in china, no depression there...

Risk, Politics, Strategy and Currencies

Khaleej Times - 7 hours ago
Norway offers higher GDP growth than the eurozone, a healthier external trade balance and no systemic banking exposure to Eastern Europe. ...

irony of ironies... the best place in the world to invest now? norway!

hey, nero! get off the internets & look out the friggin window!

[nero3]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

Thank you for the response.

I do not read Mish. The financial analysis is rich with details but the macro-economic analysis is superficial and contradictory. Ungrounded, is the word? Not a help to me.

If Warren Buffett is "smart money" why did he not exit the stock market in 2007 and preserve his money, his investors' money and his credit rating? Even I knew to do that.

He has no macro theory and brags about this fact. Or rather he used to do so.

Warren Buffett proves of the phrase "Genius is a rising market." He uses his contacts to pick leaders in industries. This genius works only when the economy is expanding.

The "boom" as you call it? What caused it?

I agree the booms were caused by the FIRE Economy. I see no other strong case made and I read very many sites.

The boom in 2003, was caused by a tide of cheap money, cheap yen, cheap franc, cheap dollar, and generally cheap money everywhere in the world, and it could certainly come back. It was a bubble in everything. When there is a weak dollar boom, the market's are prone to that, when the dollar is strong things get more concentrated. It was in a sense a bit similar in the early seventies. In the 1920-1929 era, the norwegian market's performed very poorly, not even a boom. Before the bubble from 2003 took off, it was the same deflation concerns as now. I think the War on terror and Iraq war, was an important component in creating the bubble, as it helped to push down real interest rates. The bubble in the Norwegian exchange started almost on the day the iraq war started. A war could certainly help now. As I have mentioned before. It's not needed to plug an imagined mega trillion whole of insolvency or demand destruction from a deflationary spiral. All that is needed is to print enough to get the cheap money bubble back on track, then the market set, very high interest rates, and bankruptcy projections, everything, will come back down again. Another thing, is that in 2003, the norwegian exchange was 100, when the dow and nikkei was setting lows, now it have not been lower than 190, even the nikkei and dow have been below the 2003 lows. The reason for this is the inflation that have happened from 2003 to now (the norwegian exchange is more like an hard asset). In a real sense the dow at 8000 now, is at least 50 % off the same 8000 level in 2003.

[metalman]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

The boom in 2003, was caused by a tide of cheap money, cheap yen, cheap franc, cheap dollar, and generally cheap money everywhere in the world, and it could certainly come back. It was a bubble in everything. When there is a weak dollar boom, the market's are prone to that, when the dollar is strong things get more concentrated. It was in a sense a bit similar in the early seventies. In the 1920-1929 era, the norwegian market's performed very poorly, not even a boom. Before the bubble from 2003 took off, it was the same deflation concerns as now. I think the War on terror and Iraq war, was an important component in creating the bubble, as it helped to push down real interest rates. The bubble in the Norwegian exchange started almost on the day the iraq war started. A war could certainly help now. As I have mentioned before. It's not needed to plug an imagined mega trillion whole of insolvency or demand destruction from a deflationary spiral. All that is needed is to print enough to get the cheap money bubble back on track, then the market set, very high interest rates, and bankruptcy projections, everything, will come back down again. Another thing, is that in 2003, the norwegian exchange was 100, when the dow and nikkei was setting lows, now it have not been lower than 190, even the nikkei and dow have been below the 2003 lows. The reason for this is the inflation that have happened from 2003 to now (the norwegian exchange is more like an hard asset). In a real sense the dow at 8000 now, is at least 50 % off the same 8000 level in 2003.

reason norway is doing better is that it had its banking crisis in the early 1990s and didn't play the mortgage game in eastern europe as other old europe countries did.

bought gold in 2001 because central banks were talking about deflation. central thesis here is that when cbs 'worry aloud' about deflation, they are setting up for a big inflation. 2003 was late to make that observation.

bubbles in everything? yes indeed, captain obvious.

[rjwjr]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

Okay, thanks. Will change the criteria to make earning the title more rigorous.

Oh, and when does the last 7 pages or so of this thread get moved to Rant & Rave?

[rjwjr]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

The boom in 2003, was caused by a tide of cheap money, cheap yen, cheap franc, cheap dollar, and generally cheap money everywhere in the world, and it could certainly come back. It was a bubble in everything. When there is a weak dollar boom, the market's are prone to that, when the dollar is strong things get more concentrated. It was in a sense a bit similar in the early seventies. In the 1920-1929 era, the norwegian market's performed very poorly, not even a boom. Before the bubble from 2003 took off, it was the same deflation concerns as now. I think the War on terror and Iraq war, was an important component in creating the bubble, as it helped to push down real interest rates. The bubble in the Norwegian exchange started almost on the day the iraq war started. A war could certainly help now. As I have mentioned before. It's not needed to plug an imagined mega trillion whole of insolvency or demand destruction from a deflationary spiral. All that is needed is to print enough to get the cheap money bubble back on track, then the market set, very high interest rates, and bankruptcy projections, everything, will come back down again. Another thing, is that in 2003, the norwegian exchange was 100, when the dow and nikkei was setting lows, now it have not been lower than 190, even the nikkei and dow have been below the 2003 lows. The reason for this is the inflation that have happened from 2003 to now (the norwegian exchange is more like an hard asset). In a real sense the dow at 8000 now, is at least 50 % off the same 8000 level in 2003.

Specialist vs Generalist...

Definition of a specialist: Someone who knows more and more about less and less until they know everything about nothing.

And then there is Nero, a generalist: someone who knows less and less about more and more until he knows nothing about everything.

Just having fun with you, my man, but you sure seem to have a reply for EVERYTHING, and you are so sure of yourself. I'd peg you at being 19 years old if I didn't know better. At my age, your convictions and energy just plain wear me out. I'm buying more physical gold then taking a nap.

[nero3]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

Specialist vs Generalist...

Definition of a specialist: Someone who knows more and more about less and less until they know everything about nothing.

And then there is Nero, a generalist: someone who knows less and less about more and more until he knows nothing about everything.

Just having fun with you, my man, but you sure seem to have a reply for EVERYTHING, and you are so sure of yourself. I'd peg you at being 19 years old if I didn't know better. At my age, your convictions and energy just plain wear me out. I'm buying more physical gold then taking a nap.

Good to see Marc Faber coming over to my side:
"U.S. stocks probably reached their bear market low when the S&P 500 fell to 666.79 during trading on March 6, Faber, who publishes the Gloom, Boom and Doom report, told Bloomberg Radio in an interview from Thailand."

Now that's an idiot, right?

Seriously, I think many of you guys don't have a clue.

[metalman]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

Good to see Marc Faber coming over to my side:
"U.S. stocks probably reached their bear market low when the S&P 500 fell to 666.79 during trading on March 6, Faber, who publishes the Gloom, Boom and Doom report, told Bloomberg Radio in an interview from Thailand."

Now that's an idiot, right?

Seriously, I think many of you guys don't have a clue.

i'm certain marc faber reads your body of work religiously.

faber reads itulip...

As detailed in Debt Deflation Bear Market Update Part I: 2009 Windup, the Debt Deflation Market that started in 2008 continues in 2009 with rallies driven by positive sentiment invoked by government stimulus spending announcements, such as the rally we have witnessed over the past few days. As we exit the Period of Panic that began in October and enter the Period of False Hope and Uncertainty in 2009, the brave of heart may attempt to trade these rallies, and we will attempt to identify them for subscribers. The false hope is that government spending can pull the economy out of its debt deflation, and that we are wiser than our grandparents and great grandparents were under similar circumstances. But that was then, and this is now.

Beware Relief Rallies Update 1: DJIA 7552 the bottom?

[nero3]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

I'd just announce, that there is not all posts in this thread that I can see, and if have been that way for a while, that's a choice I have made,as I can't give audience to everyone that have something they want to tell me. So far I think the biggest fool in this thread is that Ackerman guy. My first impression of him, I have no idea of who he is, and I have only read the beginning of a couple of articles he have written is that he is a complete fool. Not only does he look like a fool, but he write like a fool, and foolish websites, for foolish people. Let me add that I consider the information on websites such as kitco to be noise. Never have I ever read an article on kitco, that seemed smart. (as I remember here now, an article by john williams of shadowstats as a possible exception), The article written by him, certainly had a certain quality to it, as it was about hyperinflation, a special edition to subscribers, however, it was not very neutral, but it were a thing here and there that was certainly interesting).

[metalman]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

I'd just announce, that there is not all posts in this thread that I can see, and if have been that way for a while, that's a choice I have made,as I can't give audience to everyone that have something they want to tell me..

bwah ha ha! i was kidding.

So far I think the biggest fool in this thread is that Ackerman guy. My first impression of him, I have no idea of who he is,

at least ackerman has a name, a web site and readers.

100x more people don't know who you are as don't know who he is.

and I have only read the beginning of a couple of articles he have written is that he is a complete fool. Not only does he look like a fool, but he write like a fool, and foolish websites, for foolish people.

rofl! try...

'...and having only read the beginning of a couple of articles he has written I conclude that he is a complete fool. Not only does he look like a fool, but he writes like a fool, and runs foolish websites, for foolish people.'

Let me add that I consider the information on websites such as kitco to be noise. Never have I ever read an article on kitco, that seemed smart. (as I remember here now, an article by john williams of shadowstats as a possible exception), The article written by him, certainly had a certain quality to it, as it was about hyperinflation, a special edition to subscribers, however, it was not very neutral, but it were a thing here and there that was certainly interesting)

your judgment of the quality of writing and analysis of others is exceeded by the eloquence and depth of your own.

really, this time i'll leave you alone.

[rjwjr]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

Good to see Marc Faber coming over to my side:
"U.S. stocks probably reached their bear market low when the S&P 500 fell to 666.79 during trading on March 6, Faber, who publishes the Gloom, Boom and Doom report, told Bloomberg Radio in an interview from Thailand."

Now that's an idiot, right?

Seriously, I think many of you guys don't have a clue.

The bottom line is that many of us are investing substantial portions of our net worth and/or trying to best protect a substantial portion of our net worth. We all make decisions for ourselves, most of us after having done some research and having considered alternative viewpoints.

Do we put our faith in the iTulip thesis or the nero3 thesis? Obviously, we are entertaining your contrary thesis on the iTulip web site because the vast majority of us agree with the iTulip thesis, especially in light of the tremendous track record of calling events before they occur. That may be why you think most of us are clueless.

If you are looking for agreement and reinforcement to your thoughts and ideas, nero3, a forum in which most of the participants beleive in a contrary thesis (iTulip) is likely not your best venue. Try motleyfool.com or something similar as I assume they have a forum of hard-charging traders like yourself. Don't quit posting here, however, as your viewpoint generates some great discussions.