Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

[jtabeb]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

'Oh, shut up'

you're funny!

' The US just need to print more dollar so the rest of the world can get along' :confused:

the chinese have other ideas.

'yields will head up, creating a very steep yield curve, that's inflationary and promote recovery' :confused::confused::confused:

seriously, look at ka-poom theory. if yields rise in the usa a vicious cycle starts that does not promote recovery... yields rise, mortgage rates rise, real estate prices crash even faster.... for an economy that depends on asset prices that is armagedon. why do you think the fed is taking the highly extraodinary step of buying 10 yr t bonds? any other gov'ts doing that? anything to keep yields down.

We are going to have a lot of fun smoking and joking over all of this during or travels trough the post-apocoliptic landscape.


Maybe Mega can give me a ride in his V-8 interceptor. (you'll recognize me as FERAL BOY from the movie)

[nero3]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

The only flaw in your logic is that the guy on the street thinks THE WORST IS OVER!!!

To catch or not catch the falling knife is the question I'd ask you.

That's not a flaw. It fit's with the worst being in November for most stocks and stock indexes, and that it takes a few months before they catch on.

[nero3]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

We are going to have a lot of fun smoking and joking over all of this during or travels trough the post-apocoliptic landscape.


Maybe Mega can give me a ride in his V-8 interceptor. (you'll recognize me as FERAL BOY from the movie)

You are thinking in worst case scenarios. I think it's ok to have ones eyes open to worst case scenarios, but I think it's good to think in probabilities, with a total emotional detachment, and remember that worst case scenarios usually are low probability events.

[kartius919]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

Having a title such as "Senior iTuliper" while only being on the forum for a month is a tad deceptive, no? Can we just give ourselves any title we wish? Should the mechanism be modified?

[nero3]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

Notice how there is no reference to a spectacularly crashing US dollar? None of the "Peter Schiff Media Glam Superstar" extravagant scenarios?

Peter Schiff, I read his book, not the latest bull moves, but the crash proof book. His plot, at least in his investment firm is similar to the movie the red October, when a Russian submarine officer that want's to defect and give the submarine to the americans, makes his crew think there is a fire in the nuclear reactor by creating a fire, so his crew willingly want's to get off the ship. I certainly think he have found a lot of suckers to put money into his firm that way, with the motto "we help you escape the burning US dollar and the burning US economy". I feel sorry for those who have invested there.

[c1ue]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

You are thinking in worst case scenarios. I think it's ok to have ones eyes open to worst case scenarios, but I think it's good to think in probabilities, with a total emotional detachment, and remember that worst case scenarios usually are low probability events.

You know, it is exactly this sentiment which the man on the street is thinking.

Of course my point (and iTulip's, Metalman's, etc) is:

Hearken back to 2006. Is the Fed directly buying Treasuries a worst case scenario? Is the Fed and US Treasury throwing around trillions of dollars a worst case scenario? Is a global recession a worst case scenario? What about an entire nation becoming insolvent to the tune of $330,000 per man/woman/child? The British pound dropping 35% due to deliberate UK government action? Heck what about a non-white person as US President?

At what point does the worst case scenario arrive?

More importantly, if all of these steps save the last one were predicted ahead of time by a carefully reasoned and debated train of thought - why is it a worst case scenario as opposed to a realistic assessment of what has happened and what is going to happen?

But I digress.

Spit out your thesis: where will we be in 3 months? 6 months? 1 year?

What will the US interest rate be in each snapshot of the future? What will the DJI/SP500/Nasdaq be? US dollar index?

Lukester made predictions of $200 oil, $300 oil, etc etc nearly 1 year ago.

At the time I knew full well what he envisioned (peak oil) was not going to occur in the fashion he believed. I would have taken him up on his fatuous bet of $100 that he would be right, but declined because my own thesis was for hyperinflation at some point - and I could lose the bet by being right.

Similarly your arguments that the worst is over strike the exact same chord in me.

There might be a return to Dow 14000 in the next 3 years.

But it could just as easily be because gasoline is $12/gallon and bread is $8/loaf as because there occurred a magical inversion of the presently collapsing debt pyramid.

But you won't be very happy in that instance either.

As for your graphs of this or that stock - you are engaging in what is known as survivor bias. For every GE (!), there is a GM. For every Boeing, there is a Bethlehem Steel. For every Du Pont, there is an Eastman Kodak. Westinghouse? AT & T? Sears?

[FRED]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

Having a title such as "Senior iTuliper" while only being on the forum for a month is a tad deceptive, no? Can we just give ourselves any title we wish? Should the mechanism be modified?

I'm open to suggestions.

[Sharky]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

I'm open to suggestions.

Are you familiar with the reputation / feedback mechanism in vBulletin?

[raja]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

Whenever you look at the chart of wall mart, don't you agree that the chart of wall mart just make you scream, yes, yes, this is 1929?

It could be that Walmart isn't sinking with the rest because many people who once shopped at other stores are now downgrading. I actually consider Walmart's performance a negative indicator . . . .

[metalman]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

Peter Schiff, I read his book, not the latest bull moves, but the crash proof book. His plot, at least in his investment firm is similar to the movie the red October, when a Russian submarine officer that want's to defect and give the submarine to the americans, makes his crew think there is a fire in the nuclear reactor by creating a fire, so his crew willingly want's to get off the ship. I certainly think he have found a lot of suckers to put money into his firm that way, with the motto "we help you escape the burning US dollar and the burning US economy". I feel sorry for those who have invested there.

we agree on that at least. i warned a few poor souls here to not buy into the schiff act but... to no avail. the worse his calls do, the more he rants about the fed and evil bankers on youtube, the more suckers he draws in. graph google trends on 'peter schiff' against his perfomance and get a near perfect inverse correlation.

[nero3]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

You know, it is exactly this sentiment which the man on the street is thinking.

Of course my point (and iTulip's, Metalman's, etc) is:

Hearken back to 2006. Is the Fed directly buying Treasuries a worst case scenario? Is the Fed and US Treasury throwing around trillions of dollars a worst case scenario? Is a global recession a worst case scenario? What about an entire nation becoming solvent to the tune of $330,000 per man/woman/child? The British pound dropping 35% due to deliberate UK government action? Heck what about a non-white person as US President?

At what point does the worst case scenario arrive?

More importantly, if all of these steps save the last one were predicted ahead of time by a carefully reasoned and debated train of thought - why is it a worst case scenario as opposed to a realistic assessment of what has happened and what is going to happen?

But I digress.

Spit out your thesis: where will we be in 3 months? 6 months? 1 year?

What will the US interest rate be in each snapshot of the future? What will the DJI/SP500/Nasdaq be? US dollar index?

Lukester made predictions of $200 oil, $300 oil, etc etc nearly 1 year ago.

At the time I knew full well what he envisioned (peak oil) was not going to occur in the fashion he believed. I would have taken him up on his fatuous bet of $100 that he would be right, but declined because my own thesis was for hyperinflation at some point - and I could lose the bet by being right.

Similarly your arguments that the worst is over strike the exact same chord in me.

There might be a return to Dow 14000 in the next 3 years.

But it could just as easily be because gasoline is $12/gallon and bread is $8/loaf as because there occurred a magical inversion of the presently collapsing debt pyramid.

But you won't be very happy in that instance either.

As for your graphs of this or that stock - you are engaging in what is known as survivor bias. For every GE (!), there is a GM. For every Boeing, there is a Bethlehem Steel. For every Du Pont, there is an Eastman Kodak. Westinghouse? AT & T? Sears?

I'll answer your question. One year ago I was shorting oil. And I burned myself, because I was months to early. That's how life is. Because I live in Norway, I first noticed from the psychology surrounding the exchange that oil was in a bubble from around September 2007. I certainly noticed the baltic dry bubble. Where do we go from here? I don't know. But I know the guys that were long the baltic dry, certainly is shorting stocks.

[Fat Hampster]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

I'll answer your question. One year ago I was shorting oil. And I burned myself, because I was months to early. That's how life is. Because I live in Norway, I first noticed from the psychology surrounding the exchange that oil was in a bubble from around September 2007. I certainly noticed the baltic dry bubble. Where do we go from here? I don't know. But I know the guys that were long the baltic dry, certainly is shorting stocks.

For clarity, please: Are you saying you are now shorting the dummies who were long the Baltic Dry Index during the Bubble by going long stocks because they, the dummies, are at this time short stocks? Thank you.

[nero3]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

For clarity, please: Are you saying you are now shorting the dummies who were long the Baltic Dry Index during the Bubble by going long stocks because they, the dummies, are at this time short stocks? Thank you.

No, that is not my reasoning for being long, but more an observation I have made. Now it's no longer "china growing into heaven, needing everything," I hear from them,

while I was saying to them that the baltic dry was going to crash, and china would overheat and the world would crash into a global recession, I was going as far as to say those dry bulk shipping company was lucky to still be in business 1 year into the future, only to get the deaf ear, When the index was at around 11000 making a double top I said to them (only to hear from them what a nonsense technical analysis was, I predicted it to go to 1500, but it went much further, and faster down than what I predicted. Now these same guys are pretty much sucking up to the deflation story, talking about japan, even they know nothing about japan other than the surface similarity, and that the world is pretty much coming to the end. I had an interest for Japan back in around 2006-2007, but I quickly realised last year, from what experts that went onto that "bandwagon", that it was not going to go that way. In around november, it was even a temporary distortion that caused the market for treasuries to signal deflation. Of course that sent bubble heads, such as mish, on a ego trip. I started to get more and more bullish in october- november. Back then, especially in 2007 when things were overheating, people were using "fundamentals" as reasons for justifying absurd valuations, especially in the chinese, and other emerging market's, but they failed to discount the overheating, that of course caused smart money, such as warren buffet with his petrochina stake, to cash out. Now, even things look bad, I think it's time to look at the fundamentals, and have been for a long time. A lot of the structural arguments, made during the boom, is in my opinion valid, it's just that the emerging economies were overheating, and things getting really stretched back then, and now that valuations are down, it's time to look at the longer term fundamentals again.

[Guest]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

Nero3 - meet Metalman. Metalman, meet Nero3. Both of you guys are not as stupid as the other guy would like to assume. This general state of uneasiness is called "the iTulip syndrome". It is a condition of constant unease with having a good grip on all your premises. There is no going back. You took a seemingly harmless stroll, just to clear your thoughts, and while strolling, you wandered out onto a pensinsula. Then the tide came up, and the peninsula turned into an island. Now you are stranded, and all the normal people are elsewhere! :p

we agree on that at least. i warned a few poor souls here to not buy into the schiff act but... to no avail. the worse his calls do, the more he rants about the fed and evil bankers on youtube, the more suckers he draws in. graph google trends on 'peter schiff' against his perfomance and get a near perfect inverse correlation.

Peter Schiff, I read his book, not the latest bull moves, but the crash proof book. His plot, at least in his investment firm is similar to the movie the red October, when a Russian submarine officer that want's to defect and give the submarine to the americans, makes his crew think there is a fire in the nuclear reactor by creating a fire, so his crew willingly want's to get off the ship. I certainly think he have found a lot of suckers to put money into his firm that way, with the motto "we help you escape the burning US dollar and the burning US economy". I feel sorry for those who have invested there.

[Guest]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

Argghh!! :p :p :p

I certainly noticed the baltic dry bubble. Where do we go from here? I don't know. But I know the guys that were long the baltic dry, certainly is shorting stocks.