Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

[Guest]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

So buying this shares while inflation is raging, is in my opinion smarter than buying over priced gold shares in the hope of finding a bigger fool and timing the way out. In the long run, the gold mining companies will perform very poor, while the jeweler will perform great ... they will be a better investment than obscure gold mining companies that come and go with the booms and busts.

Nero3 - With respect the above references to gold positions are not remotely like any ever recommended by iTulip, nor understood by the majority of members here. There is plenty of stuff to read around still for newcomers, that will clarify positions that are a lot more sober than what you mis-attribute above? I much appreciate your positions and your subtle read on the stock markets otherwise, and I think you will be right on many aspects of your call.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

Cow, Lukester -- can you elaborate on DBA? I thought that was a safer position given droughts around the world and the credit crunch (and prices of fertilizer) restricting potential yields.

Well, I will soon fold like a cheap suit on this prediction. I was shooting from the hip. .

Before I fold, let me think out loud a second here. From the http://www.dbfunds.db.com/Dba/index.aspx PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund page:

DBA is a rules-based index composed of futures contracts on some of the most liquid and widely traded agricultural commodities – corn, wheat, soy beans and sugar.

I agree, jpatter666, that we are at risk of food shortages, for the reasons you give and other similar ones.

Recently, as with other commodities, we are seeing declining prices due in good part to the giant sucking sound (Ross Perot term) of the FIRE crash sucking all the money out of anything tradeable. However, there are limits to the price destruction of food futures. We've all got to eat, and most of us have no plans to leave this life anytime soon. Food demand is likely to exceed food supply.

In a normal economy, food shortages due to such things as crop failures lead to rising prices.

In the Great Depression (when dollar inflation was semi-constrained by its remaining ties to gold) food shortages went hand in hand with falling prices. There was neither food nor money to be had.

In this current depression, the inflationary and deflationary forces on the dollar are doing great battle. The FIRE economy has metastisized as a deadly cancer in the global financial system based on the dollar.

My recommendation to avoid DBA is not one to short it. I want neither side of that trade. Rather my recommendation was to avoid being in the same room as this patient (the FIRE denominated economy) that is now in delirium tremors. Spend ones energies abandoning all dollar denominated trades, either side. Rather focus on ones health, ones physical stash, ones community and neighbors, ones faith, ones talents for local useful work. If one is a farmer, prepare for some hard times, or prepare to have the bank foreclose on your farm. All of us should prepare for some bare grocery store shelves.

Once these financial fires rage through the forest of our modern economy, new life will spring up, green shoots will poke up from the ground. Human civilization is strong. Do not allow the flickering flames of the failing FIRE economy to mesmerize you.

[Guest]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

Once these financial fires rage through the forest of our modern economy, new life will spring up, green shoots will poke up from the ground.

Yeah. I hope I'm gonna be a green shoot and not some of the fertilizer.

Commodities complex IMO sees (another) crash going into June this year. Once again, no explanation (too lengthy). I can plead lack of explanation because I can offer one better than all the 'splainin'. We can see in two months whether this was right or wrong, which is infinitely better intel than any 'splainin'.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

Rather my recommendation was to avoid being in the same room as this patient (the FIRE denominated economy)

I suppose that the iTulip position is that one can two-step this crash, first catching the falling dollar denominated prices (the "Ka") as debt collapses, and then catching them rising again as dollars and treasuries are repatrioted (the "POOM").

The older I get, the less time I spend worrying about being consistent. Despite my recommendations in my previous post above, I may well dabble in this POOM trade, trying to catch rises in commodities like DBA. It's a fools game however in a corrupt casino. Part of me remains the fool.

[Guest]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

The older I get, the less time I spend worrying about being consistent.

Amen to that, brother!

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

Yeah. I hope I'm gonna be a green shoot and not some of the fertilizer.

Don't esteemed iTuliper's such as yourself get to be Tulips?

[Guest]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

I don't wanna be a tulip. I wanna be an oak that gets to live for 300 years guy. They were baby green shoots once too. I wanna avoid being fertiliser, get to be a green shoot for a while, and then graduate to 300 year old oak tree. Don't wanna grow up on a tree farm either - those guys get turned into a two by four later on.

Don't esteemed iTuliper's such as yourself get to be Tulips?

[metalman]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

I don't wanna be a tulip. I wanna be an oak that gets to live for 300 years guy. They were baby green shoots once too. I wanna avoid being fertiliser, get to be a green shoot for a while, and then graduate to 300 year old oak tree. Don't wanna grow up on a tree farm either - those guys get turned into a two by four later on.

after the market crashes again the talk will turn back from green shoots to green shits.

[nero3]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

Well, I will soon fold like a cheap suit on this prediction. I was shooting from the hip. .

Before I fold, let me think out loud a second here. From the http://www.dbfunds.db.com/Dba/index.aspx PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund page:
I agree, jpatter666, that we are at risk of food shortages, for the reasons you give and other similar ones.

Recently, as with other commodities, we are seeing declining prices due in good part to the giant sucking sound (Ross Perot term) of the FIRE crash sucking all the money out of anything tradeable. However, there are limits to the price destruction of food futures. We've all got to eat, and most of us have no plans to leave this life anytime soon. Food demand is likely to exceed food supply.

In a normal economy, food shortages due to such things as crop failures lead to rising prices.

In the Great Depression (when dollar inflation was semi-constrained by its remaining ties to gold) food shortages went hand in hand with falling prices. There was neither food nor money to be had.

In this current depression, the inflationary and deflationary forces on the dollar are doing great battle. The FIRE economy has metastisized as a deadly cancer in the global financial system based on the dollar.

My recommendation to avoid DBA is not one to short it. I want neither side of that trade. Rather my recommendation was to avoid being in the same room as this patient (the FIRE denominated economy) that is now in delirium tremors. Spend ones energies abandoning all dollar denominated trades, either side. Rather focus on ones health, ones physical stash, ones community and neighbors, ones faith, ones talents for local useful work. If one is a farmer, prepare for some hard times, or prepare to have the bank foreclose on your farm. All of us should prepare for some bare grocery store shelves.

Once these financial fires rage through the forest of our modern economy, new life will spring up, green shoots will poke up from the ground. Human civilization is strong. Do not allow the flickering flames of the failing FIRE economy to mesmerize you.

derivate are certainly not the same as food. Just as gold futures and physical gold is not the same thing. Rail shares track coffee prices I have noted. And Coffee, track emerging market's like China. I think rails are a great investment. I don't have any derivate positions, and I don't really like DBA. The soft commodity I think are cheapest and I like the most currently is sugar.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

Nice image there, Metalman. She looks seriously frightened.

[Guest]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

Thyroid problem.

Nice image there, Metalman. She looks seriously frightened.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

derivate are certainly not the same as food.

Yup. Agreed.

[nero3]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

I suppose that the iTulip position is that one can two-step this crash, first catching the falling dollar denominated prices (the "Ka") as debt collapses, and then catching them rising again as dollars and treasuries are repatrioted (the "POOM").

The older I get, the less time I spend worrying about being consistent. Despite my recommendations in my previous post above, I may well dabble in this POOM trade, trying to catch rises in commodities like DBA. It's a fools game however in a corrupt casino. Part of me remains the fool.

With the rise in the dba, is was a huge rise in dry bulk shippers. Railroad tracked it, fertilizer stocks. DBA is kind of a little boring product I think, not moving enough for my taste, but. If we get that kind of inflation, like from mid 2007- to june 2008, just that it goes on and on, with things like DBA, ,doubling in a year, then doubling again and again, then I'd say the world is in a huge mess. Things won't be pretty.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

With the rise in the dba, is was a huge rise in dry bulk shippers. Railroad tracked it, fertilizer stocks.

My parsing engine needed rebooting after scanning that.

[metalman]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

With the rise in the dba, is was a huge rise in dry bulk shippers. Railroad tracked it, fertilizer stocks. DBA is kind of a little boring product I think, not moving enough for my taste, but. If we get that kind of inflation, like from mid 2007- to june 2008, just that it goes on and on, with things like DBA, ,doubling in a year, then doubling again and again, then I'd say the world is in a huge mess. Things won't be pretty.

not that simple... check Dual Cycles of Demand Destruction and the Economic Face Plant