Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

[nero3]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

At least our current President told us it was time to buy. Carter just told us to turn down our thermostat! I guess the man downstairs put his number of 666 SPX on the low too.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/firs...me-buy-stocks/

http://www.britannica.com/blogs/2009...us-presidents/

I think Obama could had been a good trader. Most, that is 9 of 10 don't have high enough testosterone levels to be good traders, Obama I think is off the charts. That's why I would not dismiss his call.

[CanuckinTX]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

Great find cobben. Now that's REAL hard data that practically guarantees any housing recovery is just a pipe dream for the foreseeable future. Let's see how perceptions are when this next crashing wave hits the market.

[tree]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

Lukester:

Yes, generalizing can be misleading.

The real estate expert I mentioned who spoke of burdened street parking because of renters doubling up was speaking of her own neighborhood in L.A.'s Hancock Park-adjacent.

There has been much new construction in her area of condo/apt buildings, with the city of L.A. requiring minimal off-street parking to go along with them, she says. She calls the new construction "Chateaux S**t," and it sits right up against the gracious old homes.

She personally doesn't have a lot of trouble parking because of her long driveway. But I gather that many homeowners tend to be sensitive to such things. Home-shoppers might want to look into zoning and zoning variances in their desired area. Property tax-starved municipalities will increasingly rezone to allow multiple-dwelling construction, it appears to me.

My godparents in Long Beach, the ones who own the apt. building in Bellflower, who have been in real estate 50 years and are native Californians who both who lived through the Great Depression there, have cautioned me not to buy anywhere in CA for about a year and a half. But they could be reacting emotionally. I do not know.

[c1ue]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

Clue - what you overlook is that Nero3's committing to this bet is not in some nebulous future, but in the very next year, with market proofs to be emitted right in the next two quarters. In case you missed it, he's putting himself in a position to be flat wrong. All you need do is await the results of the next twelve to eighteen months for a more substantive response to this than all of this back and forth with the indignation.

What's all this fuss and bother about "naivete'" or "hidden agenda"? Lot of people kicking up a stink and squawking here about a guy's call, to which he's committed and which he may turn out very publicly wrong about if all your comments are correct. If you have this supreme assurance in the outcome, you need merely await it to then deliver a sermon on blatant folly. Meanwhile a lot of "prove it" comments are flying around, which seem to miss that simple yet substantive point.

Lukester,

I don't care about the specifics of a call - what irritates me immensely are arguments which ignore the substance of previous data as well as challenges.

You'll remember the $#* duels; as soon as he spit out a more detailed and cogent thesis, I stopped banging on him. I may not agree, but having a reasonable thesis with reasonable evidence or ways of proving out is exactly what discussion is all about.

On the other hand, $#*'s original nebulous thoughts were tangential to iTulip theories and without substantive backup.

My past exchanges with you are no different. I've pushed on you because you have a pattern of reinforcing posts which follow your views and/or putting up newsletter comments which espouse views you share. After a while, I start pushing to see what your own personal specific views are in some detail.

Were Nero3 to have the occassional post incidentally highlighting his views, that is perfectly fine as we all have our own views shaped by our individual experiences and personalities. But seeing dozens of posts all pushing for market tops - yet all ignoring existing iTulip views hammered out over years and thousands of discussions...that I don't pass up.

Because that's the bullhorn vs. kazoo in micro.

[Southernguy]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

Dear Lukester:
I-m a real estate investor here, in deep South America. If I were living near San Diego, I would certainly buy that house.
That of course based on the fact thay I can support expenses for several years should things go sour.
All in all I-m with Itulip´s thesis. They´re been right too many times to overlook.
This is a hard time for those of us who hold gold, and some shorts, but w´ve just have to wait and don´t panic sell.
There is an information on China on Bloomberg today, they´re nearly cancelling the trade surplus, which means stop buying treasuries. This at a time when US is emitting more of the stuff. QE is going at some point to debase the dollar. Itulip thesis on it´s best. Check it it´s interesting.



[""""
As SeanO has pointed out elsewhere, you can look around in markets that you know well, know like the back of your hand, and understand that when you are able to buy a home in a premium beach-resort city, second largest city in California and one of the densest urban regions in the country, with severe geographic limits on all four sides, and by putting $36,000 down, obtain a mortgage of $900 per month for a three bedroom detached home, you have well and truly discovered some solid ground at the bottom of this housing collapse and there are some outstanding bargains lying around with no bidders.

What does this mean? It means you could buy such a property, rent it out to a former two bedroom condo dweller who's been paying $1300 per month, and you'd have a $400 per month positive cash flow, plus the market security of being able to offer a 3 bedroom detached home in a market where people paid the same money for a two bedroom condominium. """"""""""""""

[Guest]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

There is an information on China on Bloomberg today, they´re nearly cancelling the trade surplus, which means stop buying treasuries. This at a time when US is emitting more of the stuff. QE is going at some point to debase the dollar. Itulip thesis on it´s best. Check it it´s interesting.

Southernguy - OK I will read it today. For better or worse, I keep Bloomberg as my default homepage. ( although frankly reading financial news obsessively can "make Jack a dull boy" :rolleyes: ) BTW as you are in Argentina, does the name "Luca Prodan" ring any bells for you? He was a rock musician quite well known in B'aires in the 1980's. Died of a drug overdose in the late 1980's in classic rock musician style and became a bit of a folk hero in Argentina? He was a classmate of mine in 9th and 10th grades high school in Italy back in the early '70's (he was a hell raiser even then). Also his brother Andrea Prodan. Just curious if you had heard of him.

Sorry this is off topic but I was curious.

[Southernguy]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

I am not in Argentina....
Luca Prodan rings me, buy I havo no real information about him

[jtabeb]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

For GOLD bulls there is more at stake than 'just missing' a rally if the nominal lows hold (in stocks) and all this money printing begins to accomplish Irving's Fisher's objective.

Just saying you should TRY to consider both sides, don't be blind to the risk of being WRONG and being caught wih too many chips on the wrong side of the table.

[ATTACH]1397[/ATTACH]

Even a 'bear market' rally such as that little 1975 rally could be damaging to your p&l if too heavily weighted to gold and avoiding all stock exposure (much less short equities- yikes).

What, am I going to own FEWER ounce of gold or silver (than I have now) if the price goes down?

Bless all of you that want to play games with where the market is going short to intermeidate term. As for myself, I'm more than happy to sick back and wait for the eventualities to play out.

Is anyone really calling for a durable bull market in equities? A durable bear in PMs?

For poeple who want to speaculate on short term gyration, be my guest. But please refrain from calling in "investment advice".

(I personally prefer to sit, do nothing, build postions, and wait.) Not as profitable, but not as frought with risk either.


Good luck to the folks who want to churn their portfolios into oblivion.

BTW. BETTING on the FALSE PREMISE (which IMHO, is what the bullish commentators here are doing) goes against George Soros' #1 investment premise. Maybe they are billionairs like Soros and are just not letting on. (If they are not billionairs, I'll stick with the investment advice of the guy who actually is a billionaire).

[Starving Steve]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

The most under-reported news event of our time is inflation, according to realtor, Ozzie Jurock, and he is absolutely right.

I don't know what to-morrow may bring: inflation, deflation, panic, correction, or what, but the long haul, the mega-trend is inflation. Houses will cost more over a lifetime. Everything will cost more over a lifetime. That is the hidden story: inflation.

Money and income and savings and investment goes down thru time. But property tends to go up. Energy trends up. Food trends up. The cost of living goes up and up and up..... If you want to survive, you have to be out of money and into real things. And forget all the market timing and charts and advice; just get real.

In America, you want to be out of cash now and into real things that produce value.... Buy crashes. Buy dips, sell rallies, and never forget ( or forgive ) inflation. There is nothing more to really know.

A telling comment by Ozzie Jurock, to-day on Money Talks on the Corus Radio Network in Canada: The average price for a home in Vancouver, BC during the recession of 1974: $54,000. And people doddled and thought $54,000 was too high for a house. They tried to time the real estate market on the assumption that the recession would deepen even further.

[stockman]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

BTW. BETTING on the FALSE PREMISE (which IMHO, is what the bullish commentators here are doing) goes against George Soros' #1 investment premise. Maybe they are billionairs like Soros and are just not letting on. (If they are not billionairs, I'll stick with the investment advice of the guy who actually is a billionaire).

I am also a fan of Soros. In Q4 I was happy to see he was a buyer in the energy complex. That didn't help him much until the market turned but he is well positioned now... assuming he still holds. His turnover is said to be quite high (another churner I guess). I care less about individual names he owns (he is limited to larger more liquid stocks than I), I do find his sector bets of interest however.

His ability to sense a turning point and be willing to switch sides is often sighted as key to his outsized success. Unfortunate that a 'gut sense' can't be taught... then again if there is more to it than that, why would you teach it? I have wondered if Soros 'sense' was a discomfort as his position became overly crowded- putting him on alert for the turning point. Most investors that get a theme right have a tendency to ride it all the way back down- unable to see when the rules of the game were changing. In contrast that was Soros strong point.

"He also believed that market participants influenced one another and moved in herds. He said that most of the time he moved with the herd, but always watched for an opportunity to get out in front and "make a killing." How could he tell when the time was right? Soros has said that he would have an instinctive physical reaction about when to buy and sell, making is strategy a difficult model to emulate." - investopedia


Soros Management Q4 2008 filing- securities which share holdings increased:

Symbol	Name	Industry	Value	Shares	Shares Change	% Change in Shares	Est. Change Value	% Out	% Port	As Of
PBR.A	Brazilian Petr...	Major Integrat...	$ 751,066,304.17	36798937	15621700	73.76646916	$ 314,249,431.59	0.99	24.64	Dec-31 08
POT	Potash Corp Of...	Agricultural C...	$ 433,935,840.52	5926466	2585439	77.3845587	$ 191,615,110.73	1.96	14.24	Dec-31 08
BBY	Best Buy	Electronics St...	$ 267,208,825.08	9505828	8958828	1637.811335	$ 222,814,196.69	2.3	8.77	Dec-31 08
HES	Hess Corp	Oil & Gas Refi...	$ 218,733,299.28	4077802	1991814	95.48540068	$ 104,899,789.62	1.25	7.18	Dec-31 08
COP	ConocoPhillips	Major Integrat...	$ 177,329,530.00	3423350	1715450	100.4420634	$ 89,040,951.98	0.23	5.82	Dec-31 08
ACI	Arch Coal	Industrial Met...	$ 78,672,326.94	4829486	1952000	67.83699382	$ 35,668,659.43	3.38	2.58	Dec-31 08
SLB	Schlumberger Ltd	Oil & Gas Equi...	$ 72,173,835.24	1705028	1160028	212.8491743	$ 57,179,362.24	0.14	2.37	Dec-31 08
CNX	Consol Energy	Industrial Met...	$ 34,501,575.94	1207193	373535	44.80674329	$ 10,884,413.74	0.67	1.13	Dec-31 08
LGDI	Legend Interna...	Business Services	$ 13,824,396.20	23431180	23431180	0	$ -	10.35	0.45	Dec-31 08
LSCC	Lattice Semico...	Semiconductor ...	$ 13,086,665.66	8666666	459800	5.602625899	$ 742,019.66	7.51	0.43	Dec-31 08
AUDC	Audiocodes Ltd	Communication ...	$ 6,514,634.82	3744043	3744043	0	$ -	9.01	0.21	Dec-31 08
MSFT	Microsoft Corp	Application So...	$ 3,519,612.00	181050	102050	129.1772152	$ 2,164,712.44	0	0.12	Dec-31 08
DPS	Dr. Pepper Sna...	Beverages - So...	$ 3,761,468.75	231475	120475	108.536036	$ 2,289,426.57	0.09	0.12	Dec-31 08
LPS	Lender Process...	Business Services	$ 2,639,603.50	89630	29630	49.38333333	$ 719,173.97	0.09	0.09	Dec-31 08
CA	CA, Inc	Application So...	$ 2,534,978.12	136804	88000	180.3130891	$ 1,469,960.01	0.03	0.08	Dec-31 08
LO	Lorillard Inc	Cigarettes	$ 2,389,121.95	43055	23055	115.275	$ 1,386,863.05	0.03	0.08	Dec-31 08
NIHD	NII Holdings	Wireless Commu...	$ 2,181,600.00	120000	54855	84.20446696	$ 1,113,332.10	0.07	0.07	Dec-31 08
TDC	Teradata Corpo...	Data Storage D...	$ 2,187,425.00	147500	37500	34.09090909	$ 550,954.55	0.08	0.07	Dec-31 08
GS	Goldman Sachs	Investment Bro...	$ 1,519,020.00	18000	5200	40.625	$ 447,664.06	0	0.05	Dec-31 08
CDNS	Cadence Design...	Technical & Sy...	$ 1,464,000.00	400000	105000	35.59322034	$ 415,704.55	0.16	0.05	Dec-31 08
MA	Mastercard	Business Services	$ 1,000,510.00	7000	3000	75	$ 435,799.54	0.01	0.03	Dec-31 08

Soros Industry Allocation Q5 2008.bmp


data source: insiderscore.com ($$$)

You can also find Soros information at this site: http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=49418


"Maybe they are billionairs like Soros" In the interest of full disclosure I am NOT a billionair. I'm not sure who the billionair participant is here that is giving you advice, but I would bet he did not make his fortune taking 'investment advice' from anyone else.

[Guest]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

I don't understand why people need to buy houses in Vancouver when they can just go around at night prying up those big fat golden cobblestones that the streets are paved with. If I was up there I'd get me a pickup truck and do nothing but go around at night prying up the golden cobblestones which Vancouverites so naively ignore. Houses are just less interesting to visiting Americans compared to those fifteen pound and twenty pound cobblestones made of gold IMO.

The most under-reported news event of our time is inflation, according to realtor, Ozzie Jurock, and he is absolutely right.

I don't know what to-morrow may bring: inflation, deflation, panic, correction, or what, but the long haul, the mega-trend is inflation. Houses will cost more over a lifetime. Everything will cost more over a lifetime. That is the hidden story: inflation.

Money and income and savings and investment goes down thru time. But property tends to go up. Energy trends up. Food trends up. The cost of living goes up and up and up..... If you want to survive, you have to be out of money and into real things. And forget all the market timing and charts and advice; just get real.

In America, you want to be out of cash now and into real things that produce value.... Buy crashes. Buy dips, sell rallies, and never forget ( or forgive ) inflation. There is nothing more to really know.

A telling comment by Ozzie Jurock, to-day on Money Talks on the Corus Radio Network in Canada: The average price for a home in Vancouver, BC during the recession of 1974: $54,000. And people doddled and thought $54,000 was too high for a house. They tried to time the real estate market on the assumption that the recession would deepen even further.

[nero3]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

What, am I going to own FEWER ounce of gold or silver (than I have now) if the price goes down?

Bless all of you that want to play games with where the market is going short to intermeidate term. As for myself, I'm more than happy to sick back and wait for the eventualities to play out.

Is anyone really calling for a durable bull market in equities? A durable bear in PMs?

For poeple who want to speaculate on short term gyration, be my guest. But please refrain from calling in "investment advice".

(I personally prefer to sit, do nothing, build postions, and wait.) Not as profitable, but not as frought with risk either.


Good luck to the folks who want to churn their portfolios into oblivion.

BTW. BETTING on the FALSE PREMISE (which IMHO, is what the bullish commentators here are doing) goes against George Soros' #1 investment premise. Maybe they are billionairs like Soros and are just not letting on. (If they are not billionairs, I'll stick with the investment advice of the guy who actually is a billionaire).

I think I know pretty much what Soros is thinking, he is pretty transparent, but also a market timer, so he is difficult to emulate as most don't have his golden intuition, all his contacts and will miss the turn. He seems to be invested in a inflation, weak dollar, emerging market's theme, not a debt deflation theme.

A strategy that in my mind is smarter than buying gold shares while inflation is raging, is to actually, believe it or not, is to buy companies like GE, while they are down, having their profit margins squeezed from high inflation, and generally suffering from a weak dollar. Other companies like that is Dow Chemical, and DD. I'm sure there is more examples to of course. Even jeweler stocks, is smarter than buying gold mining stocks. Much smarter.

At one point, inflation peaks, commodity prices decline, and companies like these experience exploding profit margins. It's not a matter of discussion. This will happen sooner or later. So buying this shares while inflation is raging, is in my opinion smarter than buying over priced gold shares in the hope of finding a bigger fool and timing the way out. In the long run, the gold mining companies will perform very poor, while the jeweler will perform great in periods of declining inflation and commodity prices, and exploding profit margins, and suffer in periods of higher inflation, but in general, over a longer time period, they will be a better investment than obscure gold mining companies that come and go with the booms and busts.

[Chomsky]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

I don't think you'll find many itulipers invested in gold mining stocks. Physical gold seems to be the preferred mode of safeguard investment.

[jpatter666]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

Cow, Lukester -- can you elaborate on DBA? I thought that was a safer position given droughts around the world and the credit crunch (and prices of fertilizer) restricting potential yields.

Chomsky, I hear you on the miners, but Lord do I wish I had ignored EJ's advice when they plummeted in November/December.

I think iTulip has the right long-term view, but I've amended my views to take advantage of short-term opportunities. :p

I await EJ's oil article, but I've decided to move on some opportunities myself. For oil, I think along the lines of the California gold rush -- yeah a few miners made it big, but it was those selling them the tools that *really* made out.

Looking at OIH and RIG.

[metalman]

Re: Why Only Fools Think the Bottom Is In

I think I know pretty much what Soros is thinking, he is pretty transparent, but also a market timer, so he is difficult to emulate as most don't have his golden intuition, all his contacts and will miss the turn. He seems to be invested in a inflation, weak dollar, emerging market's theme, not a debt deflation theme.

you'd truly benefit from reading some of the articles here. take The truth about deflation, for instance. monetary inflation is the way debt deflation is accomplished post gold standard. mish, ackerman, etc hear 'debt deflation' and think 1930s deflation spiral. but that's because they are economic history illiterates. the 1975 - 1980 usa inflation was a minor inflationary debt deflation. it cleared the debt decks for the disinflationary boom that followed. deflationary debt deflations were rare even under gold standards ebcause gov'ts dropped the gold standard to inflate away the debt. since gold standards there have been zero deflation spirals. nada. zip.

A strategy that in my mind is smarter than buying gold shares while inflation is raging, is to actually, believe it or not, is to buy companies like GE, while they are down, having their profit margins squeezed from high inflation, and generally suffering from a weak dollar. Other companies like that is Dow Chemical, and DD. I'm sure there is more examples to of course. Even jeweler stocks, is smarter than buying gold mining stocks. Much smarter.

itulip says no to mining shares. that dogma has saved those of us who listened to it a ton of money. search the site and you'll find the arguments... management risk, hedging, and the fact that inflation increases input costs more than the price the companies can charge for the commodity. inflations produce stealth bear markets ala stocks 2001 - 2007 that went nowhere in real terms. if you are expecting inflation, buy the stuff not the shares in the companies that make, sell, or distribute the stuff.

At one point, inflation peaks, commodity prices decline, and companies like these experience exploding profit margins. It's not a matter of discussion. This will happen sooner or later. So buying this shares while inflation is raging, is in my opinion smarter than buying over priced gold shares in the hope of finding a bigger fool and timing the way out. In the long run, the gold mining companies will perform very poor, while the jeweler will perform great in periods of declining inflation and commodity prices, and exploding profit margins, and suffer in periods of higher inflation, but in general, over a longer time period, they will be a better investment than obscure gold mining companies that come and go with the booms and busts.

buying mining shares sucked in the last commodity/inflation boom 2002 - 2008 and they'll suck this time, too.

as i pointed out in another post, gold prices spiked the same months as the cpi in 1980. get out after the fed's jammed rates way over the inflation rate. trick this time will be knowing what the real inflation rate is through all the lies and distortions. that was not the case in 1980.